G’s Expectation or What to Watch in Week 6

Welcome back to the last traditional college football week until late November. Next week, Conference USA will start playing Tuesday and Wednesday games for the rest of October and, of course, November brings in MACNation mid-week games. That means there will a college or pro game every day until Wednesday November 27th starting next Tuesday: a stretch of 42 amazing days! If you can, take advantage and watch some of these games: it is their chance to shine on national TV.

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But we have games this week and that’s what this post is supposed to be about. Games start Thursday, but the best pre-Saturday game this week is at 9:00 (all times Eastern) Friday night when Syracuse (3-1/51) heads to Vegas to play UNLV (4-0/19). When the Orange have the ball, their OER (offensive efficiency rating) is 137 (41st in the country) meaning they score 13.7 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Rebel DER (defensive efficiency rating) of 156 (31st) meaning they allow 10.0 points for every 15.6 points their opponents normally score. When the home team is driving, an OER of 151 (19th) hits a Syracuse DER of 188 (88th). It’s not often a Core 4 team with a 3-1 record is the underdog to a Group of 5 team, but Vegas (could it be home-town bias? ha) has UNLV-6.5 and the GCR agrees 59% and the Rebels to cover.

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You may have noticed the GCR has added the team to cover to the predictions. Please remember that this blog is for entertainment only, and I don’t bet on teenagers. A general rule of thumb is each % to win by the GCR is equivalent to ~1 point.

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At noon Saturday, in the game of the week, Missouri (4-0/10) will invade Texas A&M (4-1/32). The Aggies are on top of the SEC all alone at the moment at 2-0 in the conference with wins over Florida (2-2/68) and Arkansas (3-2/60). When the Tigers are driving, a high-powered offense with an OER of 157 (11th) goes up against an elite DER of 171 (25th). When the Aggies control the ball, a more modest OER of 130 (59th) will try to take a top 10 DER of 234 (8th). Vanderbilt (2-2/89), who lost to Georgia St (2-2/119), took Mizzou to 2 overtimes before succumbing. Are these teams legit? We will find out. Vegas has A&M-2.5 (up from -1.0 earlier in the week). The GCR thinks it will be close – literally it is predicting Mizzou at 51% or MIZZ-1.0. This feels like another overtime situation or a field goal as time is running out toss up type game. Should be fun.

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At 4:00, West Virginia (2-2/76) who was a pre-season Big 12 contender travels to Oklahoma St (3-2/45). Both Cowboy losses came in conference games while WVU is 1-0. The Mountaineer OER is 131 (52nd) and will try to score on a Cowboy DER of 125 (77th). OKST, however, can score with an elite OER of 156 (13th) vs a DER of 115 (96th). Vegas likes Oklahoma St at home -3.0 and the GCR agrees 57% and to cover.

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At 7:30 in the co-game of the week, we have a rematch of last year’s championship game when Michigan (4-1/28) with only a loss at home to Texas (5-0/1) taking the long trip to Washington (3-2/44). You know the schedulers did this on purpose and I, for one, am glad they did. Face it, it’s college football so many faces have changed since January, but it’s still pretty fun. I don’t think it will be a 34-13 rout this time. When the Wolverines have the ball, an OER of 123 (73rd) will face a home team DER of 245 (7th). Points will be hard to come by for Michigan. When Washington is pushing, a less than mediocre OER of 119 (82nd) will face a fully mediocre DER of 148 (40th). Points will be hard to come by for Washington. Despite the fact that the Huskies are just 5 games from the score-happy Pac 12, this feels like a stereotypical Big Ten defensive game. Vegas has the over/under at just 41.0 to prove that point. They also have Washington to win at home -2.5, but the GCR has Michigan to win 51%.

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Without further ado, here are all the games this week, organized alphabetically by Core 4 conferences, Group of 5 conferences, and FCS. Hope your team does well, unless they are playing my team. Thank you, as always, for reading and sharing with others, G

TimeAway Team (Record/ GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR WinGCR Cover
   ACC (17 teams)Core 4   
FRI 9:00Syracuse (3-1/51)ACC (1-1)UNLV (4-0/19)MWC (1-0)UNLV-6.5UNLV 59%UNLV
12:00SMU (4-1/27)ACC (1-0)Louisville (3-1/38)ACC (1-0)LOU-7.0SMU 51%SMU
12:00Boston College (4-1/28)ACC (1-0)Virginia (3-1/49)ACC (1-0)VIR-.0BC 51%BC
12:00Pittsburgh (4-0/14)ACC (0-0)North Carolina (3-2/47)ACC (0-1)PITT-2.5PITT 57%PITT
12:00Wake
Forest
(1-3/113)
ACC (0-1)NC
St
(3-2/77)
ACC (0-1)NCST-4.5NCST 69%NCST
3:30Virginia
Tech
(2-3/64)
ACC (0-1)Stanford (2-2/78)ACC (1-1)VT-7.5STAN 55%STAN
7:00Clemson (3-1/41)ACC (2-0)Florida
St
(1-4/66)
ACC (1-3)CLEM-14.5CLEM 75%CLEM
8:00Duke (5-0/11)ACC (1-0)Georgia
Tech
(3-2/69)
ACC (1-2)GT-9.0DUKE 57%DUKE
10:30Miami
FL
(5-0/8)
ACC (1-0)California (3-1/50)ACC (0-1)MIAF-10.0MIAF 54%CAL
Idle  none    
   Big
12
(16 teams)
Core 4   
FRI 7:30Houston (1-4/81)B12 (0-2)TCU (3-2/65)B12 (1-1)TCU-16.5TCU 77%TCU
4:00West Virginia (2-2/76)B12 (1-0)Oklahoma
St
(3-2/45)
B12 (0-2)OKST-3.0OKST 57%OKST
7:30Baylor (2-3/54)B12 (0-1)Iowa St (4-0/5)B12 (1-0)IAST-11.5IAST 72%IAST
7:45UCF (3-1/34)B12 (1-1)Florida (2-2/68)SEC (1-1)UCF-2.5UCF 55%UCF
8:00Kansas (1-4/96)B12 (0-2)Arizona
St
(3-1/43)
B12 (0-1)AZST-2.5AZST 81%AZST
11:00Texas
Tech
(4-1/31)
B12 (2-0)Arizona (3-1/37)B12 (1-1)ARIZ-6.0TXTC 52%TXTC
OOC  none    
Idle  BYU (5-0/6), Cincinnati (3-2/59), Colorado (4-1/23), Kansas St (4-1/15), Utah (4-1/33)    
   Big Ten (18 teams)Core 4   
FRI 9:00Michigan
St
(3-2/55)
B10 (1-1)Oregon (4-0/12)B10 (1-0)ORE-23.0ORE 64%MIST
12:00UCLA (1-3/46)B10 (0-2)Penn
St
(4-0/9)
B10 (1-0)PSU-27.5PSU 81%PSU
12:00Purdue (1-3/92)B10 (0-1)Wisconsin (2-2/84)B10 (0-1)WISC-14.0WISC 66%WISC
3:30Iowa (3-1/40)B10 (1-0)Ohio
St
(4-0/3)
B10 (1-0)OHST-20.5OHST 60%IOWA
3:30Indiana (5-0/4)B10 (2-0)North-western
(2-2/82)
B10 (0-1)IND-14.0IND 63%NW
4:00Rutgers (4-0/13)B10 (1-0)Nebraska (4-1/22)B10 (1-1)NEB-7.0RUTG 51%RUTG
7:30Michigan (4-1/28)B10 (2-0)Washing-ton
(3-2/44)
B10 (1-1)WASH-2.5MICH 51%MICH
7:30Southern
Cal
(3-1/30)
B10 (1-1)Minnesota (2-3/80)B10 (0-2)SCAL-8.0SCAL 58%SCAL
OOC  none    
Idle  Illinois (4-1/20), Maryland (3-2/42)    
   SEC (16 teams)Core 4   
12:00Missouri (4-0/10)SEC (1-0)Texas
A&M
(4-1/32)
SEC (2-0)TAM-2.5MIZZ 51%MIZZ
3:30Auburn (2-3/97)SEC (0-2)Georgia (3-1/21)SEC (1-1)GEO-24.0GEO 66%AUB
3:30Mississippi (4-1/24)SEC (0-1)South Carolina (3-1/39)SEC (1-1)MISS-9.0MISS 50%SCAR
4:15Alabama (4-0/7)SEC (1-0)Vanderbilt (2-2/89)SEC (0-1)ALA-23.0ALA 62%VAND
7:30Tennessee (4-0/2)SEC (1-0)Arkansas (3-2/60)SEC (1-1)TENN-13.0TENN 58%TENN
OOC  Florida (UCF-B12)    
Idle  Kentucky (3-2/48), LSU (4-1/36), Mississippi St (1-4/75), Oklahoma (4-1/29), Texas (5-0/1)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
12:00Navy (4-0/25)AAC (3-0)Air
Force
(1-3/156)
MWC (0-2)NAVY-10.0NAVY 80%NAVY
12:00Army (4-0/16)AAC (3-0)Tulsa (2-3/127)AAC (0-1)ARMY-12.5ARMY 69%ARMY
1:00Tulane (3-2/70)AAC (1-0)UAB (1-3/118)AAC (0-1)TULN-15.0TULN 67%TULN
3:30East Carolina (3-2/94)AAC (1-0)Charlotte (2-3/101)AAC (1-0)ECAR-8.0ECAR 58%ECAR
3:30Temple (1-4/95)AAC (0-2)UCONN (3-2/67)IND (0-0)UCON-17.5UCON 78%UCON
OOC  none    
Idle  FAU (2-3/116), North Texas (4-1/57), Rice (1-4/133), South Florida (2-3/102), UTSA (2-3/109)    
   C-USA (10 teams)G5   
THU 9:00Sam Houston (4-1/58)USA (1-0)UTEP (0-4/108)USA (0-1)SHOU-10.0SHOU 81%SHOU
FRI 7:00Jackson-ville St
(1-3/115)
USA (0-0)Kennesaw
St
(0-4/143)
USA (0-0)JAX-16.5JAX 60%KNST
OOC  none    
Idle  FIU (2-3/107), Liberty (4-0/35), LA Tech (1-3/144), Middle Tennessee (1-4/91), New Mexico St (1-4/122), W Kentucky (3-2/71)    
   FBS Independents (3 teams)G5 (ND-C4)   
12:00UMASS (1-4/131)IND (0-0)N Illinois (2-2/90)MAC (0-1)NILL-17.0NILL 76%NILL
OOC  UCONN (Temple-AAC)    
Idle  Notre Dame (4-1/17)    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
2:00W Michigan (1-3/132)MAC (0-0)Ball
St
(1-3/85)
MAC (0-1)WMI-9.5WMI 52%BLST
3:30Miami
OH
(1-3/125)
MAC (0-0)Toledo (3-1/63)MAC (0-0)TOL-6.5TOL 75%TOL
3:30Bowling
Green
(1-3/117)
MAC (0-0)Akron (1-4/99)MAC (0-1)BG-15.0BG 56%AKR
OOC  N Illinois (UMASS-IND)    
Idle  Buffalo (3-2/93), C Michigan (3-2/100), E Michigan (4-1/61), Kent St (0-5/86), Ohio (3-2/104)    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
6:30Colorado
St
(2-2/98)
MWC (0-0)Oregon
St
(3-1/73)
P12 (0-0)ORST-11.0ORST 64%ORST
7:00Utah
St
(1-3/128)
MWC (0-0)Boise
St
(3-1/52)
MWC (0-0)BOST-27.0BOST 77%BOST
7:30Nevada (2-3/126)MWC (0-0)San Jose St (3-1/72)MWC (1-0)SJST-6.5SJST 66%SJST
8:00Hawaii (2-2/124)MWC (0-0)San Diego St (1-3/129)MWC (0-0)SDST-2.5HAW 61%HAW
OOC  Air Force (Navy-AAC), UNLV (Syracuse-ACC)    
Idle  Fresno St (3-2/87), New Mexico (1-4/130), Wyoming (1-4/105)    
   Pac-12 (2 teams)G5   
OOC  Oregon St (Colorado St-MWC)    
Idle  Washington St (4-1/53)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:00Texas
St
(2-2/103)
SUN (0-0)Troy (1-4/123)SUN (0-1)TXST-13.0TXST 69%TXST
3:30App
St
(2-2/112)
SUN (0-1)Marshall (2-2/111)SUN (0-0)MARS-3.0MARS 55%MARS
7:00James Madison (4-0/18)SUN (0-0)ULM (3-1/62)SUN (1-0)JMU-17.0JMU 56%ULM
7:00Old
Dominion (1-3/134)
SUN (0-0)Coastal Carolina (3-1/74)SUN (0-0)CCAR-5.0CCAR 73%CCAR
7:00Louisiana (3-1/83)SUN (0-0)Southern
Miss
(1-3/150)
SUN (0-0)LAU-14.5LAU 72%LAU
7:00South Alabama (2-3/106)SUN (1-0)Arkansas
St
(2-2/79)
SUN (0-0)SALA-3.5ARST 55%ARST
OOC  none    
Idle  Ga Southern (3-2/88), Georgia St (2-2/119)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Weber
St
(2-3/214)
SKY (1-0)Montana (4-1/141)SKY (1-0)NLMONT 71%NL
4:00N Colorado (0-5/246)SKY (0-1)Montana
St
(5-0/114)
SKY (1-0)NLMTST 82%NL
4:00UC
Davis
(4-1/149)
SKY (1-0)Portland
St
(0-4/203)
SKY (0-1)NLUCD 69%NL
5:00N Arizona (3-2/164)SKY (1-0)Idaho (3-2/157)SKY (0-1)NLIDA 55%NL
8:00Idaho
St
(2-3/205)
SKY (0-1)Cal
Poly
(2-2/201)
SKY (1-0)NLCP 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  E Washington (1-4/255), Sacramento St (2-3/204)    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Tennessee
St
(3-2/181)
BSOV (1-1)Linden-wood
(2-3/224)
BSOV (1-0)NLTNST 58%NL
2:30South
Carolina St
(2-2/188)
MEAC (0-0)Tennessee
Tech
(2-2/184)
BSOV (2-0)NLTNTC 54%NL
3:00SEMO (4-1/142)BSOV (1-0)E Illinois (1-4/218)BSOV (0-1)NLSEMO 76%NL
3:00Gardner
Webb
(1-4/234)
BSOV (0-1)Tennessee Martin (2-3/192)BSOV (0-1)NLTMAR 67%NL
4:00W Illinois (1-3/170)BSOV (0-0)Charleston (1-3/252)BSOV (0-1)NLWILL 52%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Colonial (16 teams)FCS   
FRI 7:00New Hampshire (3-1/152)CAA (1-0)Harvard (1-1/189)IVY (0-1)NLNH 54%NL
12:00Bryant (1-3/254)CAA (0-2)Brown (2-0/140)IVY (1-0)NLBRO 85%NL
1:00Delaware (4-0/121)CAA (2-0)Mon-mouth
(3-2/166)
CAA (1-0)NLDEL 59%NL
1:00Albany (1-3/251)CAA (0-1)Cornell (1-1/233)IVY (1-0)NLCORN 65%NL
2:00Rhode
Island
(3-1/158)
CAA (1-0)Hampton (3-2/176)CAA (0-1)NLRI 51%NL
2:00North
Carolina A&T
(1-4/260)
CAA (0-1)Richmond (3-2/163)CAA (1-0)NLRICH 77%NL
3:30Villanova (4-1/151)CAA (1-0)Stony
Brook
(4-1/146)
CAA (1-0)NLSB 54%NL
4:00NC Central (3-2/172)MEAC (1-0)Campbell (2-3/206)CAA (0-2)NLNCC 59%NL
6:00William & Mary (4-1/139)CAA (1-0)Towson (1-3/216)CAA (0-1)NLW&M 75%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Elon (1-4/211), Maine (3-2/179)    
   FCS Independent (2 teams)FCS   
1:00Norfolk
St
(2-4/247)
MEAC (0-1)Sacred
Heart
(2-3/238)
FCS (0-0)NLSH 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Merrimack (1-4/235)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Princeton (1-1/210)IVY (0-0)Columbia (1-1/196)IVY (0-0)NLCOLA 56%NL
12:00C
Connect-icut (2-2/191)
NEC (1-0)Yale (1-1/239)IVY (0-1)NLCCON 55%NL
1:00Penn (1-1/197)IVY (0-0)Dart-mouth
(2-0/135)
IVY (0-0)NLDART 68%NL
OOC  Brown (Bryant-CAA), Cornell (Albany-CAA), Harvard (New Hampshire-CAA)    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
1:00St Francis (1-3/220)NEC (0-1)Delaware
St
(1-4/261)
MEAC (0-0)NLSTFR 54%NL
1:00Lincoln PA (NA)NAMorgan
St
(2-3/212)
MEAC (0-0)NLNLNL
OOC  NC Central (@Campbell-CAA), Norfolk St (@Sacred Heart-FCS), South Carolina St (@Tennessee Tech-BSVO)    
Idle  Howard (2-3/198)    
   Missouri Valley (11 teams)FCS   
2:00Indiana
St
(1-3/253)
MVC (0-0)Young-stown
St
(1-4/207)
MVC (0-1)NLINST 50%NL
3:00South Dakota (3-1/145)MVC (1-0)Murray
St
(1-3/190)
MVC (0-1)NLSDAK 69%NL
3:30North Dakota (4-1/136)MVC (1-0)North
Dakota St
(4-1/138)
MVC (1-0)NLNDST 53%NL
5:00South
Dakota St
(3-1/148)
MVC (0-0)N Iowa
(2-2/185)
MVC (0-0)NLSDKS 59%NL
7:00Illinois
St
(3-2/169)
MVC (0-1)S Illinois (2-3/183)MVC (0-1)NLILST 60%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Missouri St (3-2/182)    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
1:00Long
Island
(0-5/227)
NEC (0-0)Duquesne (2-2/167)NEC (0-0)NLDUQ 65%NL
1:00Wagner (2-3/241)NEC (0-1)Stonehill (1-2/228)NEC (0-0)NLSTON 53%NL
1:00Buffalo St (NA)NAMercy-hurst
(1-4/259)
NEC (0-1)NLNLNL
OOC  C Connecticut (@Yale-IVY), St Francis (@Delaware St-MEAC)    
Idle  Robert Morris (2-3/256)    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
1:00Lafayette (2-2/187)PAT (0-0)Fordham (0-5/249)PAT (0-0)NLLAF 59%NL
1:00Holy
Cross
(1-4/240)
PAT (0-0)Colgate (1-4/257)PAT (0-0)NLHC 52%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Bucknell (3-2/171), Georgetown (3-2/177), Lehigh (3-2/162)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Drake (2-1/175)PFL (1-0)Valparaiso (2-3/258)PFL (0-1)NLDRAK 69%NL
1:00Marist (0-4/242)PFL (0-1)Davidson (3-1/155)PFL (1-0)NLDAV 74%NL
1:00Morehead
St
(3-2/180)
PFL (1-0)Butler (4-0/120)PFL (0-0)NLBUT 68%NL
2:00Stetson (2-2/225)PFL (0-0)St Thomas (1-3/263)PFL (0-0)NLSTET 62%NL
4:00Presby-terian
(2-3/243)
PFL (0-1)San
Diego
(2-2/195)
PFL (0-1)NLSDIE 67%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Dayton (3-1/153)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Furman (1-3/209)SoCon (0-0)Citadel (2-3/226)SoCon (0-2)NLCIT 58%NL
2:30Wofford (2-2/200)SoCon (0-1)W Carolina (1-3/221)SoCon (0-0)NLWOFF 59%NL
3:00VMI (0-4/219)SoCon (0-0)Samford (1-2/236)SoCon (0-0)NLSAM 56%NL
3:30Chatta-nooga
(1-3/193)
SoCon (0-1)E Tennessee St
(3-2/161)
SoCon (1-0)NLETSU 70%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Mercer (5-0/110)    
   Southland (9 teams)FCS   
7:00McNeese (4-2/154)SLAN (1-0)Houston Christian (2-3/186)SLAN (0-0)NLMCN 60%NL
7:00Com-merce
(0-4/248)
SLAN (0-0)South-eastern
(1-4/231)
SLAN (0-0)NLCOMM 52%NL
7:00Prairie
View
(2-3/223)
SWAC (1-2)Incarnate
Word
(2-2/202)
SLAN (0-0)NLIW 61%NL
7:00Nicholls (1-3/232)SLAN (0-0)Southern (2-2/199)SWAC (1-1)NLSOUT 66%NL
8:00North-western
St
(0-5/230)
SLAN (0-0)Steph F Austin (2-2/178)SLAN (0-1)NLSFA 67%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Lamar (3-2/173)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Florida
A&M
(2-2/174)
SWAC (0-0)Alabama
St
(2-2/215)
SWAC (1-0)NLFLAM 51%NL
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (1-3/217)SWAC (0-0)Alcorn
St
(2-3/222)
SWAC (1-0)NLACST 62%NL
3:00Lynchburg (NA)NATexas Southern (1-3/250)SWAC (1-1)NLNLNL
5:00Alabama A&M (2-2/208) – NSWAC (0-0)Jackson St (3-2/160) – NSWAC (2-1)NLJACK 59%NL
OOC  Prairie View (@Incarnate Word-SLAN), Southern (@Nicholls-SLAN)    
Idle  Bethune (0-5/244), Mississippi Valley (0-5/245), Grambling St (3-2/168)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Austin
Peay
(1-4/237)
UAC (0-2)West Georgia (1-3/262)UAC (0-3)NLWGA 54%NL
4:00C Arkansas (4-1/137)UAC (1-0)Abilene Christian (3-2/159)UAC (2-0)NLCARK 55%NL
5:00Utah
Tech
(0-5/213)
UAC (0-1)N Alabama (1-5/229)UAC (1-1)NLUTTC 55%NL
8:00Tarleton (4-1/147)UAC (1-0)S Utah
(2-3/194)
UAC (1-0)NLTARL 63%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  E Kentucky (3-2/165)