Greetings oh great and faithful college football fans. After a wonderful and exciting Week 7 that not only gave us 3 games between undefeated teams, but also gave us our first upset week (more on that in a minute) of the season, we have a more…pedestrian Week 8. But never fear, there are some good games to keep an eye on. Tonight on ESPN2, we have our “what might have been” game: Georgia St (2-4/117) at App St (3-3/87). The Panthers lost a Week 1 game at South Carolina 35-14, but the Gamecocks last 2 TDs were on Blocked Punts, so the game was closer than the score. Then they hosted UNC and lost by just a TD 35-28. So, 0-2, but very close games. Then they were upset at home by Charlotte (who hasn’t won another game this season) 42-41. The Coastal Carolina came to Atlanta and took them down 41-24. Now they are 0-4 after winning 8 last year. 3 games they could have been victorious in. Then they won at Army 31-14 and at home against Ga Southern 41-33. Maybe they have turned the corner. App St on the other hand, winner of the powerful Sun Belt East last year, took UNC to a crazy 63-61 score, albeit on the losing end, by scoring 40 points! in the 4th quarter alone (they gave up 22). There were 3 TDs in the last 31 seconds of that game. 2 missed 2-point conversions made the difference in that game. A loss, but they looked like the powerhouse they were in 2021. Then they roll into Texas A&M and beat the Aggies 17-14 in Week 2 – part of the 3-way Sun Belt East upset weekend. They handle Troy with College Gameday on campus 32-28 in the wildest Hail Mary I’ve ever seen (the ball didn’t make it to the endzone so the receiver not only had to make the catch but turn upfield). Then they lost to new-to-FBS James Madison 32-28. They destroyed FCS Citadel 49-0 before losing at Texas St 36-24, so they are limping at the midpoint just 3-3. There are worse teams and much worse programs out there, but both of these teams have got to be wondering, “what happened?” Both of these teams need the win. Vegas closed App St -8.5 and while the GCR has the Mountaineers winning 60.2% of the time, Georgia St will cover. At half time, the game is GAST 14, APST 7.
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In this season’s first bowl eligibility watch, 16 teams have the required 6 or more wins to secure a bid while 22 others have 5 wins and could get there in their next game. James Madison is a special case: they have 5 wins but are not in the count because they are not eligible for a bowl (or Sun Belt championship) until 2024 due to this year’s promotion from FCS to FBS. No team has achieved the dubious 7 losses eliminating them from bowl contention (for the most part), but 5 teams are sitting on 6 losses and we could have our first official “wait until next year” teams soon.
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There are 2 FCS games of the week, and both are in the Big Sky Conference. First at 3:00 (all times Eastern), Weber St (6-0/81) invades Montana St (6-1/120) – WEB 60.1%. Later in the last game of the weekend, Sacramento St (6-0/89) hosts Montana (5-1/131) – SAC 60.7%.
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The GCR game of the week is the only one between two undefeated teams when Syracuse (6-0/7) takes on Clemson (7-0/5) in Death Valley East. The winner of this game is the last hope for a CFP spot for the ACC, I think. Vegas really likes Clemson on this one -13.5. In the upset of the week, the GCR has Syracuse winning 55.1% which means the Orangemen will cover.
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Last week was not a good week for Vegas favorites, sort of. Undefeated teams were just 12-8 (3-3 versus each other) which supports upset week all by itself. Straight up the GCR was 33-20 (.622) in picking the winners for FBS games while the FCS showed better results at 40-12 (.755). That gave us a 73-33 (.689) for the week. For the season, FBS is 200-90 (.690), FCS is 166-68 (.709), and overall SU is 366-158 (.698). Against the spread, if someone bet on the favorite for every FBS/FBS game, he would have won money 15 times and lost money 36 times (.294). The GCR ATS record last week was 27-24 (.529). In the two weeks of predicting ATS, favorite betting would yield a 44-64 (.407) record while the GCR yielded a 58-50 (.537) record.
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Here are all of the games for the weekend. I hope you enjoy!
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| Time | Away | Home | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| WED | Georgia St (2-4/117) | App St (3-3/87) | APST -8.5 | APST 60.2% | GAST |
| THU | Troy (5-2/42) | South Alabama (5-1/31) | SALA -3.0 | SALA 69.3% | SALA |
| THU | Virginia (2-4/63) | Georgia Tech (3-3/45) | GATC -3.0 | GATC 59.8% | GATC |
| FRI | Tulsa (2-4/105) | Temple (2-4/145) | TULS -13.5 | TULS 55.0% | TEMP |
| FRI | UAB (4-2/55) | W Kentucky (4-3/76) | WKY -1.5 | UAB 60.9% | UAB |
| FRI | Princeton (5-0/112) | Harvard (4-0/151) | NL | PRIN 58.8% | NL |
| FRI | Long Island (0-6/221) | Wagner (0-6/199) | NL | LIU 55.0% | NL |
| 12:00 | Indiana (3-4/59) | Rutgers (3-3/88) | RUTG -3.0 | RUTG 58.5% | RUTG |
| 12:00 | Houston (3-3/69) | Navy (2-4/136) | HOU -3.0 | HOU 58.9% | HOU |
| 12:00 | ULM (2-5/102) | Army (2-4/128) | ARMY -6.5 | ARMY 55.6% | ULM |
| 12:00 | Syracuse (6-0/7) | Clemson (7-0/5) | CLEM -13.5 | SYR 55.1% | SYR |
| 12:00 | Tennessee Martin (4-2/169) | Tennessee (6-0/6) | NL | TENN 99.9% | NL |
| 12:00 | Kansas (5-2/34) | Baylor (3-3/70) | BAY -8.0 | KAN 70.2% | KAN |
| 12:00 | Iowa (3-3/50) | Ohio St (6-0/4) | OHST -30.0 | OHST 99.9% | OHST |
| 12:00 | Akron (1-6/129) | Kent St (2-5/101) | KTST -19.0 | KTST 55.9% | AKR |
| 12:00 | Cincinnati (5-1/33) | SMU (3-3/77) | CIN -3.5 | CIN 78.4% | CIN |
| 12:00 | NC A&T (3-3/193) | Robert Morris (0-6/220) | NL | NCAT 56.0% | NL |
| 12:00 | Georgetown (1-5/254) | Colgate (1-5/242) | NL | COLG 55.1% | NL |
| 12:00 | Bucknell (0-6/237) | Lehigh (1-6/252) | NL | BUCK 55.1% | NL |
| 12:00 | Duquesne (1-5/240) | C Connecticut (0-6/235) | NL | DUQ 55.0% | NL |
| 12:30 | Duke (4-3/53) | Miami FL (3-3/45) | MIAF -9.0 | DUKE 59.4% | DUKE |
| 12:30 | Cornell (3-2/187) | Brown (2-3/222) | NL | CORN 56.2% | NL |
| 1:00 | Toledo (5-2/51) | Buffalo (4-3/65) | TOL -7.5 | TOL 73% | TOL |
| 1:00 | Bowling Green (3-4/109) | C Michigan (2-5/123) | CMI -6.5 | BG 56.9% | BG |
| 1:00 | Sacred Heart (4-2/166) | Merrimack (5-2/157) | NL | MERR 56.5% | NL |
| 1:00 | Rhode Island (4-2/167) | Monmouth (4-3/186) | NL | RI 56.1% | NL |
| 1:00 | Stonehill (3-1/163) | St Francis (4-2/166) | NL | STON 55.1% | NL |
| 1:00 | Illinois St (4-2/173) | Indiana St (1-5/227) | NL | ILST 57.7% | NL |
| 1:00 | Stetson (3-2/189) | Dayton (4-2/178) | NL | DAY 565.3% | NL |
| 1:00 | Elon (5-2/156) | New Hampshire (5-2/165) | NL | Elon 55.5% | NL |
| 1:00 | Yale (4-1/153) | Penn (5-0/98) | NL | Penn 61.7% | NL |
| 1:00 | Marist (2-4/257) | Butler (4-2/175) | NL | BUT 58.1% | NL |
| 1:00 | Delaware St (4-2/174) | Howard (1-5/258) | NL | DEST 57.8% | NL |
| 1:00 | St Thomas (5-1/144) | Presbyterian (1-6/246) | NL | STTH 60.6% | NL |
| 1:30 | Furman (5-2/152) | VMI (1-5/229) | NL | FUR 58.9% | NL |
| 1:30 | Mercer (6-1/114) | Chattanooga (5-1/133) | NL | MERC 56.5% | NL |
| 1:30 | NC Central (5-1/138) | South Carolina St (2-4/202) | NL | NCC 60.6% | NL |
| 1:30 | Dartmouth (1-4/253) | Columbia (3-2/182) | NL | COLA 57.7% | NL |
| 2:00 | E Michigan (4-3/106) | Ball St (4-3/95) | BLST -2.5 | BLST 55.4% | BLST |
| 2:00 | N Illinois (2-5/141) | Ohio (4-3/94) | NILL -3.0 | OHIO 63.2% | OHIO |
| 2:00 | SELA (3-3/191) | Jacksonville St (6-1/122) | NL | JAX 62.2% | NL |
| 2:00 | Richmond (4-2/164) | Hampton (4-2/179) | NL | RICH 55.6% | NL |
| 2:00 | Murray St (0-7/207) | Lindenwood (4-2/177) | NL | LIN 58.2% | NL |
| 2:00 | Davidson (5-2/154) | Drake (0-7/233) | NL | DAV 59.1% | NL |
| 2:00 | Citadel (1-5/241) | W Carolina (3-4/204) | NL | WCAR 55.9% | NL |
| 2:00 | SEMO (5-1/143) | Northwestern St (3-4/228) | NL | SEMO 60.0% | NL |
| 2:00 | Valparaiso (3-3/205) | Morehead St (2-4/224) | NL | VAL 55.5% | NL |
| 2:30 | UNLV (4-3/96) | Notre Dame (3-3/54) | ND -26.5 | ND 55.4% | UNLV |
| 3:00 | Rice (3-3/97) | LA Tech (2-4/99) | RICE -3.0 | RICE 58.8% | RICE |
| 3:00 | West Virginia (3-3/64) | Texas Tech (3-3/56) | TXTC -6.5 | WVU 55.4% | WVU |
| 3:00 | Weber St (6-0/81) | Montana St (6-1/120) | NL | WEB 60.1% | NL |
| 3:00 | Steph F Austin (4-3/185) | S Utah (3-4/200) | NL | SFA 56.0% | NL |
| 3:00 | Texas Southern (2-4/214) | Alcorn St (3-3/190) | NL | ACST 56.2% | NL |
| 3:00 | Morgan St (2-4/234) | Delaware (5-1/121) | NL | DEL 63.4% | NL |
| 3:00 | S Illinois (5-2/155) | South Dakota (1-5/211) | NL | SILL 58.9% | NL |
| 3:00 | Houston Christian (2-4/250) | TAM Commerce (4-2/180) | NL | TCOM 57.9% | NL |
| 3:00 | Tennessee Tech (1-5/208) | Kennesaw St (2-4/219) | NL | KNST 55.4% | NL |
| 3:00 | Faulkner (NR) | Incarnate Word (6-1/115) | NL | NL | NL |
| 3:00 | Portland St (2-4/197) | Idaho (4-2/162) | NL | ID 58.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | E Illinois (2-4/244) | Tennessee St (2-4/251) | NL | EILL 55.1% | NL |
| 3:00 | UC Davis (2-4/216) | N Colorado (2-5/247) | NL | UCD 55.2% | NL |
| 3:00 | Campbell (4-2/170) | Jackson St (6-0/79) | NL | JACK 67.2% | NL |
| 3:00 | N Alabama (1-5/260) | E Kentucky (3-3/188) | NL | EKY 56.9% | NL |
| 3:00 | N Arizona (2-5/255) | Idaho St (1-6/243) | NL | NAZ 55.1% | NL |
| 3:30 | Purdue (5-2/22) | Wisconsin (3-4/71) | WISC -2.5 | PUR 74.0% | PUR |
| 3:30 | North Texas (4-3/92) | UTSA (5-2/49) | UTSA -10.0 | UTSA 65.8% | UTSA |
| 3:30 | Northwestern (1-5/119) | Maryland (5-2/27) | MARY -14.0 | MARY 85.0% | MARY |
| 3:30 | FIU (2-4/160) | Charlotte (1-6/148) | CHAR -15.0 | FIU 55.1% | FIU |
| 3:30 | Mississippi (7-0/3) | LSU (5-2/26) | LSU -1.5 | MISS 99.9% | MISS |
| 3:30 | UCLA (6-0/9) | Oregon (5-1/16) | ORE -6.0 | UCLA 84.1% | UCLA |
| 3:30 | Memphis (4-3/85) | Tulane (6-1/19) | TULN -7.0 | TULN 88.7% | TULN |
| 3:30 | Texas (5-2/21) | Oklahoma St (5-1/17) | TEX -6.5 | OKST 67.2% | OKST |
| 3:30 | Marshall (3-3/110) | James Madison (5-1/30) | JMU -12.0 | JMU 85.9% | JMU |
| 3:30 | BYU (4-3/75) | Liberty (6-1/29) | BYU -7.0 | LIB 81.4% | LIB |
| 3:30 | Boston College (2-4/104) | Wake Forest (5-1/14) | WF -20.5 | WF 98.9% | WF |
| 3:30 | Ga Southern (4-3/68) | Old Dominion (3-3/91) | OD -2.5 | GASO 57.8% | GASO |
| 3:30 | W Michigan (2-5/140) | Miami OH (3-4/124) | MIAO -6.5 | MIAO 58.1% | WMI |
| 3:30 | Holy Cross (6-0/86) | Lafayette (2-4/236) | NL | HC 66.4% | NL |
| 3:30 | Albany (1-5/245) | Villanova (3-3/194) | NL | VILL 56.6% | NL |
| 3:30 | Maine (2-4/238) | Stony Brook (0-6/218) | NL | MAIN 55.3% | NL |
| 3:30 | Samford (5-1/139) | E Tennessee St (3-4/217) | NL | SAM 59.9% | NL |
| 4:00 | FAU (3-4/111) | UTEP (3-4/142) | FAU -4.0 | FAU 55.2% | FAU |
| 4:00 | Vanderbilt (3-4/47) | Missouri (2-4/84) | MIZZ -14.0 | VAND 56.7% | VAND |
| 4:00 | Hawaii (2-5/146) | Colorado St (1-5/127) | COST -5.0 | HAW 55.3% | HAW |
| 4:00 | Arizona St (2-4/67) | Stanford (2-4/66) | STAN -2.5 | STAN 55.4% | STAN |
| 4:00 | Bethune Cookman (1-5/249) | Mississippi Valley (0-7/212) | NL | BETH 55.1% | NL |
| 4:00 | William & Mary (5-1/135) | Towson (2-4/225) | NL | W&M 61.0% | NL |
| 4:00 | South Dakota St (6-1/132) | North Dakota (4-2/181) | NL | SDKS 59.2% | NL |
| 4:00 | McNeese (1-5/230) | Nicholls (1-6/223) | NL | NICH 55.0% | NL |
| 4:00 | Youngstown St (3-3/195) | W Illinois (0-6/210) | NL | YST 56.0% | NL |
| 5:00 | Arkansas St (2-5/137) | Louisiana (3-3/103) | LAU -7.0 | LAU 61.3% | LAU |
| 5:00 | Southern Miss (3-3/83) | Texas St (3-4/126) | SMIS -2.5 | SMIS 57.4% | SMIS |
| 5:00 | Prairie View (3-3/196) | Lamar (0-6/232) | NL | PV 56.0% | NL |
| 5:00 | Lynchburg (NR) | Southern (4-2/172) | NL | NL | NL |
| 5:00 | Missouri St (2-4/213) | N Iowa (3-4/206) | NL | NIA 55.5% | NL |
| 6:00 | San Jose St (4-2/58) | New Mexico St (2-5/171) | SJST -21.5 | SJST 69.1% | NMST |
| 6:00 | Gardner Webb (2-5/203) | Charleston Southern (1-5/231) | NL | GW 55.1% | NL |
| 6:30 | Fresno St (2-4/113) | New Mexico (2-5/147) | FRST -10.5 | FRST 55.7% | NMEX |
| 7:00 | Boise St (4-2/60) | Air Force (5-2/44) | AF -3.0 | AF 62.9% | AF |
| 7:00 | Mississippi St (5-2/23) | Alabama (6-1/10) | ALA -21.0 | ALA 86.6% | ALA |
| 7:30 | Minnesota (4-2/36) | Penn St (5-1/13) | PSU -3.5 | PSU 75.3% | PSU |
| 7:30 | Texas A&M (3-3/57) | South Carolina (4-2/38) | TAM -3.0 | SCAR 68.4% | SCAR |
| 7:30 | UCF (5-1/28) | East Carolina (4-3/72) | UCF -4.5 | UCF 78.1% | UCF |
| 8:00 | Colorado (1-5/73) | Oregon St (5-2/32) | ORST -23.5 | ORST 82.6% | ORST |
| 8:00 | Pittsburgh (4-2/43) | Louisville (3-3/61) | LOU -2.5 | PITT 64.5% | PITT |
| 8:00 | Kansas St (5-1/15) | TCU (6-0/8) | TCU -3.5 | TCU 89.3% | TCU |
| 8:00 | SW Baptist (NR) | Tarleton (4-2/168) | NL | NL | NL |
| 8:00 | E Washington (1-5/201) | Cal Poly (1-5/259) | NL | EWAS 55.1% | NL |
| 9:00 | Sam Houston (3-2/184) | Utah Tech (1-5/248) | NL | SHOU 56.9% | NL |
| 9:45 | Utah St (3-4/107) | Wyoming (4-3/78) | WYO -4.0 | WYO 60.8% | WYO |
| 10:30 | San Diego St (3-3/108) | Nevada (2-5/159) | SDST -7.0 | SDST 58.6% | NEV |
| 10:30 | Washington (5-2/37) | California (3-3/90) | WASH -7.5 | WASH 70.7% | WASH |
| 11:00 | Montana (5-1/131) | Sacramento St (6-0/89) | NL | SAC 60.7% | NL |
Thanks for another great post.