G’s Expectation or What to Watch in Week 9

Welcome back, sports fans, to the 519th episode of the GCR blog. We have more Tuesday night Conference USA action, so the predictions are coming fast and early. As the week progresses the Vegas odds often move around a bit, but the stats for the GCR accuracy are based on the numbers at publication. Now, JoJo and I do not bet on sports. She was a fantastic rule-following (for the most part) teenager who still managed to act differently than expected a number of times. To spend hard-earned money on a few dozen of those, granted well-disciplined for the most part, teenagers just seems too risky. But if you are so inclined and want to use the GCR as an input into your decisions, the GCR % to win is calibrated so that, when you subtract 50% from the expected value, it will give the GCR point spread. I am not suggesting anyone gamble and specifically remind everyone that the GCR is for entertainment purposes. Also, you might want to check the numbers in the next paragraph first.

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The very first time I predicted winners and point spread was based on a suggestion from Dennis L., a friend who has since moved to Florida. The first year, the numbers were fantastic. The next season, using the same formula, the predictions were awful. Last season, we had a pretty good year against the spread and an acceptable year straight up. This year, the point spreads have dropped. For games involving an FBS team, we were 42-18 (.700) last week bringing the season total to 310-115 (.729). For FCS vs FCS games, we had a rough week at 29-19 (.604) dropping the season to 214-99 (.683). That means that just picking the winner last week, the GCR was 71-37 (.657) with a season total of 514-214 (.706). This is 13.8 games below the desired .725. Against the spread (just FBS vs FBS) rebounded after a truly awful Week 7 to 34-24 (.586) bringing the season back above .500 at 176-172 (.506). This is 11.92 wins below the desired .540 pace. It is not uncommon for the GCR to grow more accurate as the season progresses (I used to start after week 4 just for that reason), but it is also injury season (see Texas Tech last week, among others). There is still time to recover, but these teenaged-driven teams need to start behaving as we expect them too. I know, good luck with that.

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Tonight, we kick off the week at 7:00 (all times Eastern) when Kennesaw St (4-2/59) travels to FIU (3-3/102) on ESPN2 in the Octoberfest that is Conference USA Football. The Owls have won four straight and are in second in the conference and, while FIU hasn’t had that level of success, they are performing better than historical at this stage. Vegas does not think the Panthers can win the home game with KNST-2.5 and the GCR agrees 56.0% and the Owls to cover. Don’t miss any of the four C-USA games tonight and tomorrow. They don’t get to play on national TV often. Details on where to find them and when in the table below.

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After last week when impactful and/or interesting games were all over all of the time slots, this week is a bit…lesser. Sure, I’m interested to see if Syracuse can handle undefeated Georgia Tech as well as the SEC heavyweight fight between Mississippi and Oklahoma. The premier game in the early Saturday time slot, however, is South Florida (6-1/26) at Memphis (6-1/29). These two teams are in a major fight for American conference supremacy along with Navy (6-0/42), North Texas (6-1/34), and Tulane (6-1/30). One of these teams will be facing a tough hill to get back into the required AAC championship game to have a chance at the Playoff. Vegas has South Florida taking this game -4.5, but despite the upset loss to UAB last week, the GCR has Memphis winning this game at home 57.5% of the time.

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The mid-afternoon slot has some intriguing possibilities such as BYU at Iowa St, Baylor at Cincinnati, Texas at Mississippi St, Minnesota at Iowa, and Illinois at Washington, but the time slot belongs to a team that is favored over an AP-ranked team for the second week in a row as well as for just the second time in 25 years. Vanderbilt (6-1/21) hosts Missouri (6-1/32) at 3:30 on ESPN. Last week, the Commodores were favored to beat LSU (5-2/41) and did just that. I have rarely seen the Nashville stadium so full of Vandy fans. But full it was and as loud as it could be. Now Vegas has Vandy -2.5 for the second straight week and the GCR agrees for the second straight week at 56.0% and to cover for the second straight week.

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There are some good FBS games at night, but the game of the week is the annual game between two of the best FCS programs in the country. I would love to see North Dakota St (7-0/105) and South Dakota St (7-0/128) join the Mountain West and believe they would make an immediate impact – even playing an FCS schedule, which means their strength of schedule brings them down a good bit, they both are ranked higher than multiple Mountain West teams. They are also both ranked higher than Boston College and Oklahoma St. NDST is ranked higher than Virginia Tech, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wisconsin as well. Both of these teams will make the playoffs, but this game is more about bragging rights and seeding than a post-season bid. There is no line yet for this game from Vegas, but the GCR is ready and willing to fill the space. North Dakota St will win on the road over the Jackrabbits 53% of the time, so look for a field goal sized victory. The game is on at 8:00 on ESPNU. I’ve watched this game (and the seemingly inevitable rematch in the playoffs) many times and it never disappoints. These teams are very good and worth the time.

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That’s it for this week. Thank you for reading and, especially, for sharing with others. Shout out to Kevin F., who asked a difficult question that took a bit of time to research. Keep them coming. We love questions, feedback, pushback, comments, and suggestions as all are more about making us better than anything else. The table below has every game. Have a wonderful week of college football, JoJo and G.

Time (Eastern)Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)VegasGCR Win (nearest
.5%)
GCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
FRI 7:30California (5-2/54)ACC (2-1)Virginia Tech (2-5/111)ACC (1-2)VT-4.5CAL 75.5%CALESPN
12:00SMU (5-2/31)ACC (3-0)Wake Forest (4-2/47)ACC (1-2)SMU-3.5SMU 52.5%WAKEThe CW
12:00Syracuse (3-4/85)ACC (1-3)Georgia Tech (7-0/5)ACC (4-0)GT-17.5GT 91.5%GTESPN
12:00Virginia (6-1/10)ACC (3-1)North Carolina
(2-4/120)
ACC (0-2)VIR-10.5VIR 85.0%VIRACCN
3:30NC St (4-3/55)ACC (2-2)Pittsburgh
(5-2/36)
ACC (3-1)PITT-6.5PITT 66.0%PITTACCN
7:00Stanford (3-4/75)ACC (2-2)Miami FL (5-1/9)ACC (1-1)MIAF-29.5MIAF 80.5%MIAFESPN
7:30Boston College
(1-6/137)
ACC (0-4)Louisville (5-1/7)ACC (2-1)LOU-25.5LOU 99.0%LOUACCN
Idld – Clemson (3-4/62), Duke (4-3/38), Florida St (3-4/69)
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Kansas St
(3-4/61)
B12 (2-3)Kansas (4-3/43)B12 (2-2)KAN-2.5KAN 61.0%KANTNT
3:30BYU (7-0/4)B12 (4-0)Iowa St
(5-2/27)
B12 (2-2)IAST-2.5BYU 64.5%BYUFox
4:00Oklahoma St (1-6/145)B12 (0-4)Texas Tech
(6-1/3)
B12 (3-1)TXTC-38.5TXTC 99.9%TXTCESPNU
4:00Baylor (4-3/66)B12 (2-2)Cincinnati (6-1/15)B12 (4-0)CIN-4.5CIN 73.0%CINESPN2
6:00TCU (5-2/25)B12 (2-2)West Virginia (2-5/106)B12 (0-4)TCU-14.5TCU 80.0%TCUESPN+
8:00Houston (6-1/22)B12 (3-1)Arizona St
(5-2/24)
B12 (3-1)AZST-7.5HOU 57.5%HOUESPN2
10:15Colorado (3-4/53)B12 (1-3)Utah (5-2/12)B12 (2-2)UTAH-13.5UTAH 77.5%UTAHESPN
Idle – Arizona (4-3/51), Arizona St (5-2/24), Houston (6-1/22), UCF (4-3/58)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
12:00Rutgers (3-4/84)B10 (0-4)Purdue (2-5/103)B10 (0-4)RUTG-2.5RUTG 55.0%RUTGBTN
12:00UCLA (3-4/74)B10 (3-1)Indiana (7-0/2)B10 (4-0)IND-24.5IND 94.5%INDFox
12:00Northwestern (5-2/45)B10 (3-1)Nebraska (5-2/33)B10 (2-2)NEB-7.5NEB 55.5%NWFS1
3:30Illinois (5-2/19)B10 (2-2)Washington (5-2/23)B10 (2-2)WASH-4.5WASH 53.5%ILLBTN
3:30Minnesota (5-2/40)B10 (3-1)Iowa (5-2/35)B10 (3-1)IOWA-8.5IOWA 59.0%IOWACBS
7:00Wisconsin (2-5/108)B10 (0-4)Oregon (6-1/6)B10 (3-1)ORE-33.5ORE 99.9%OREFS1
7:30Michigan (5-2/17)B10 (3-1)Michigan St (3-4/90)B10 (0-4)MICH-14.5MICH 70.5%MICHNBC
Idle – Maryland (4-3/60), Ohio St (7-0/1), Penn St (3-4/68), Southern Cal (5-2/14)
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Mississippi (6-1/28)SEC (3-1)Oklahoma (6-1/20)SEC (2-1)OKLA-4.5OKLA 56.0%OKLAABC
12:45Auburn (3-4/65)SEC (0-4)Arkansas (2-5/92)SEC (0-3)ARK-2.5AUB 55.5%AUBSECN
3:30Alabama (6-1/13)SEC (4-0)South Carolina
(3-4/93)
SEC (1-4)ALA-11.5ALA 69.5%ALAABC
3:30Missouri (6-1/32)SEC (2-1)Vanderbilt (6-1/21)SEC (2-1)VAND-2.5VAND 56.0%VANDESPN
4:15Texas (5-2/46)SEC (2-1)Mississippi St (4-3/64)SEC (0-3)TEX-6.5TEX 54.0%MSSTSECN
7:30Texas A&M (7-0/11)SEC (4-0)LSU (5-2/41)SEC (2-2)TAM-2.5TAM 58.0%TAMABC
7:45Tennessee (5-2/50)SEC (2-2)Kentucky (2-4/97)SEC (0-4)TENN-9.5TENN 65.5%TENNSECN
Idle – Florida (3-4/79), Georgia (6-1/18)
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 7:00North Texas (6-1/34)AAC (2-1)Charlotte (1-6/171)AAC (0-4)NTEX-27.5NTEX 86.5%NTEXESPN2
12:00South Florida (6-1/26)AAC (3-0)Memphis (6-1/29)AAC (2-1)SFLA-4.5MEM 57.5%MEMESPN2
3:00UCONN (5-2/57)IND (0-0)Rice (3-4/118)AAC (1-3)UCON-9.5UCON 66.0%UCONESPN+
3:30Temple (4-3/73)AAC (2-1)Tulsa (2-5/125)AAC (0-4)TEMP-6.5TEMP 64.0%TEMPESPN+
3:30FAU (3-4/113)AAC (2-2)Navy (6-0/42)AAC (4-0)NAVY-15.5NAVY 79.5%NAVYCBS Sports
Idle – East Carolina (4-3/63), Tulane (6-1/30), UAB (3-4/109), UTSA (3-4/101)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 7:00Kennesaw St (4-2/59)USA (2-0)FIU (3-3/102)USA (1-1)KNST-2.5KNST 56.0%KNSTESPN2
TUE 7:30W Kentucky (5-2/89)USA (3-1)LA Tech
(4-2/52)
USA (2-1)LATC-3.5LATC 55.0%LATCCBS Sports
WED 7:30Middle Tennessee
(1-5/160)
USA (0-2)Delaware (3-3/87)USA (1-2)DEL-8.5DEL 71.0%DELESPN2
WED 9:00Missouri St (3-3/107)USA (1-1)New Mexico St
(3-3/114)
USA (1-2)MOST-1.5NMST 59.0%NMSTCBS Sports
Idle – Jacksonville St (4-3/95), Liberty (3-4/112), Sam Houston (0-7/165), UTEP (2-5/134)
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5
OOC – UCONN (@Rice-AAC)
Idle – Notre Dame (5-2/8)
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
12:00Bowling Green
(3-4/100)
MAC (1-2)Kent St
(2-5/129)
MAC (1-2)BG-7.5BG 53.0%KTSTESPN+
12:00Ohio (4-3/86)MAC (2-1)E Michigan (2-6/139)MAC (1-3)OHIO-12.5OHIO 62.5%OHIOCBS Sports
1:00Akron (2-6/136)MAC (1-3)Buffalo (4-3/98)MAC (3-0)BUFF-9.5BUFF 68.5%BUFFESPN+
3:30UMASS (0-7/198)MAC (0-3)C Michigan (4-3/94)MAC (2-1)CMI-16.5CMI 82.0%CMIESPN+
3:30W Michigan (4-3/77)MAC (3-0)Miami OH
(4-3/96)
MAC (3-0)MIAO-2.5MIAO 53.5%MIAOESPN+
3:30Ball St
(3-4/119)
MAC (2-1)N Illinois
(1-6/147)
MAC (0-3)NILL-5.5BLST 58.0%BLSTESPN+
3:30Toledo (4-3/76)MAC (2-2)Washington St
(3-4/72)
PAC (0-0)WAST-1.5TOL 52.5%TOLThe CW
Idle – none
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 10:00Boise St
(5-2/37)
MWC (3-0)Nevada (1-6/146)MWC (0-3)BOST-21.5BOST 76.0%BOSTCBS Sports
3:00Utah St
(4-3/81)
MWC (2-1)New Mexico (4-3/82)MWC (1-2)NMEX-2.5NMEX 55.0%NMEXMWN
3:30San Diego St (5-1/48)MWC (2-0)Fresno St
(5-2/78)
MWC (2-1)SDST-3.5SDST 56.5%SDSTFS1
7:30Colorado St (2-5/124)MWC (1-2)Wyoming (3-4/121)MWC (1-2)WYO-6.5WYO 58.5%WYOCBS Sports
Idle – Air Force (2-5/116), Hawaii (6-2/70), San Jose St (2-5/123), UNLV (6-1/56)
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
OOC – Washington St (Toledo-MAC)
Idle – Oregon St (1-7/126)
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
THU 7:30South Alabama
(1-6/127)
SUN (0-3)Georgia St
(1-6/132)
SUN (0-3)SALA-6.5SALA 53.5%GASTESPN2
12:00App St
(4-3/80)
SUN (1-2)Old Dominion (4-3/44)SUN (1-2)OD-13.5OD 55.0%APSTESPNU
3:30ULM (3-4/99)SUN (1-2)Southern Miss (5-2/39)SUN (3-0)SMIS-11.5SMIS 74.5%SMISESPN+
7:00Louisiana (2-5/110)SUN (1-2)Troy (5-2/49)SUN (3-0)TROY-8.5TROY 79.0%TROYESPN+
7:00Ga Southern (3-4/83)SUN (1-2)Arkansas St (3-4/104)SUN (2-1)ARST-2.5GASO 51.5%GASOESPN+
Idle – Coastal Car (4-3/71), James Madison (6-1/16), Marshall (4-3/67), Texas St (3-4/88)
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
FRI 10:30Montana (7-0/138)SKY (3-0)Sacramento St
(4-3/158)
SKY (2-1)MONT 51%ESPN2
3:00E Washington (3-4/219)SKY (2-1)Weber St
(3-4/221)
SKY (1-2)EWA 51%ESPN+
3:00UC Davis
(5-1/152)
SKY (3-0)N Colorado (3-4/197)SKY (1-2)UCD 52%ESPN+
4:00Portland St (0-7/256)SKY (0-3)Idaho (2-5/194)SKY (0-3)IDA 76%ESPN+
6:00N Arizona
(4-3/199)
SKY (1-2)Idaho St
(2-5/186)
SKY (1-2)NAZ 52%ESPN+
8:00Montana St (5-2/133)SKY (3-0)Cal Poly
(3-4/176)
SKY (1-2)MTST 58%ESPN+
Idle – none
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
1:00SEMO (3-4/215)BSOV (2-1)Tennessee Tech
(7-0/130)
BSOV (4-0)TNTC 85%ESPN+
2:00E Illinois
(3-4/232)
BSOV (2-2)Charleston So (2-6/223)BSOV (1-3)EILL 52%ESPN+
2:30W Illinois
(1-7/244)
BSOV (0-4)Tennessee St (2-5/240)BSOV (0-3)TNST 59%ESPN+
3:00Gardner Webb
(4-3/193)
BSOV (2-1)Lindenwood (3-4/195)BSOV (2-1)GW 54%ESPN+
Idle – Tennessee Martin (3-5/241)
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
1:00Bryant (2-5/246)CAA (0-3)Rhode Island (6-2/154)CAA (4-0)RISL 75%FloFootball
1:00Campbell (2-6/234)CAA (2-2)North Carolina A&T (1-6/255)CAA (1-2)CAMP 53%FloFootball
1:00Elon (4-4/174)CAA (2-2)Maine (3-4/208)CAA (2-1)ELON 52%FloFootball
1:00William & Mary
(4-3/178)
CAA (3-1)New Hampshire
(4-4/180)
CAA (2-2)NHAM 58%FloFootball
2:00Monmouth (6-1/142)CAA (3-0)Hampton (2-6/251)CAA (0-4)MON 68%FloFootball
3:30Towson (3-4/212)CAA (1-2)Stony Brook (3-4/179)CAA (1-2)SB 61%FloFootball
3:30Albany (1-6/258)CAA (0-3)Villanova (5-2/151)CAA (4-1)VILL 81%FloFootball
Idle – none
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
Idle – Merrimack (3-5/210), Sacred Heart (5-3/177)
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
FRIColumbia (1-4/233)IVY (0-2)Dartmouth (4-1/149)IVY (1-1)DART 77%ESPN+
12:00Harvard (5-0/115)Ivy (2-0)Princeton (3-2/173)IVY (2-0)HARV 69%ESPN+
12:00Penn (4-1/141)IVY (2-0)Yale (3-2/150)IVY (1-1)PENN 54%ESPN+
1:00Brown (3-2/157)IVY (0-2)Cornell (1-4/237)IVY (0-2)BRO 55%ESPN+
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
1:00Delaware St (4-3/187)MEAC (0-0)NC Central
(5-2/161)
MEAC (0-0)NCC 61%ESPN+
2:00South Carolina St
(4-3/205)
MEAC (0-0)Norfolk St
(1-6/261)
MEAC (0-0)SCST 54%ESPN+
3:30Morgan St
(3-4/229)
MEAC (0-0)Howard (3-4/220)MEAC (0-0)HOW 61%ESPN+
Idle – none
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
2:00Illinois St
(4-3/164)
MVFC (1-2)South Dakota (5-3/168)MVFC (3-1)ILST 56%ESPN+
2:00Murray St
(0-7/265)
MVFC (0-3)Youngstown St
(4-3/172)
MVFC (1-2)YST 79%ESPN+
3:00N Iowa
(2-5/224)
MVFC (0-3)S Illinois
(4-3/159)
MVFC (1-2)SILL 68%ESPN+
4:00Indiana St
(2-5/216)
MVFC (0-3)North Dakota (5-2/131)MVFC (3-0)NDAK 86%ESPN+
8:00North Dakota St
(7-0/105)
MVFC (4-0)South Dakota St
(7-0/128)
MVFC (3-0)NDST 53%ESPNU
Idle – none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Duquesne (5-3/167)NEC (4-0)Wagner (1-6/253)NEC (0-2)WAG 63%ESPN+
12:00Stonehill (2-5/228)NEC (1-1)Mercyhurst (3-5/211)NEC (3-1)MHUR 59%NEC Front Row
12:00New Haven (4-3/226)NEC (0-2)Long Island (2-5/227)NEC (1-2)NHAV 53%NEC Front Row
3:00Robert Morris (1-6/257)NEC (0-2)St Francis
(0-6/264)
NEC (0-2)RM 52%NEC Front Row
Idle – C Connecticut (5-3/184)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Georgetown (4-3/201)PAT (1-1)Bucknell (4-4/222)PAT (1-2)GTOW 51%ESPN+
1:00Lehigh (7-0/122)PAT (2-0)Fordham (1-6/262)PAT (1-2)LEH 82%ESPN+
1:00Colgate (2-5/204)PAT (1-2)Holy Cross
(1-6/225)
PAT (1-1)COLG 51%ESPN+
Idle – Lafayette (5-3/188), Richmond (4-4/207)
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
12:00San Diego
(3-4/209)
PFL (1-2)Davidson (1-6/260)PFL (0-3)SDIE 58%ESPN+
12:00Presbyterian (7-0/140)PFL (3-0)Dayton (5-2/166)PFL (3-1)PC 52%YouTube
1:00Drake (4-2/169)PFL (3-0)Marist (3-4/203)PFL (1-2)DRAK 51%ESPN+
1:00Morehead St (3-5/230)PFL (1-3)Valparaiso (1-6/252)PFL (0-3)MHST 50%ESPN+
1:00St Thomas
(4-3/175)
PFL (2-2)Stetson (3-5/238)PFL (2-2)STTH 61%ESPN+
Idle – Butler (5-3/190)
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
2:00Citadel (3-4/214)SoCon (2-2)Furman (4-3/192)SoCon (2-2)FUR 63%ESPN+
3:00VMI (1-6/249)SoCon (0-3)Mercer (5-1/135)SoCon (4-0)MERC 83%ESPN+
3:30Chattanooga (3-4/183)SoCon (2-1)Samford (1-6/263)SoCon (1-4)CHAT 59%ESPN+
3:30Wofford (2-5/206)SoCon (1-2)E Tennessee St
(3-5/182)
SoCon (1-3)ETSU 58%ESPN+
Idle – W Carolina (5-3/181)
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
3:00Southeastern (5-2/143)SLAN (3-0)Houston Chr (2-5/248)SLAN (1-2)SELA 66%ESPN+
4:00McNeese (2-5/242)SLAN (1-2)Nicholls (1-6/243)SLAN (1-2)MCN 52%ESPN+
5:00Lamar (6-1/153)SLAN (3-0)Northwestern St
(1-6/250)
SLAN (0-3)LAM 69%ESPN+
7:00Steph F Austin
(5-2/156)
SLAN (3-0)East Texas
(2-5/218)
SLAN (2-1)SFA 59%ESPN+
8:00Incarnate Word
(2-5/235)
SLAN (0-3)Rio Grande (5-2/163)SLAN (1-2)RG 67%ESPN+
Idle – none
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Mississippi Valley
(1-5/245)
SWAC (0-3)Alcorn St
(1-6/247)
SWAC (0-4)ACST 58%SWAC TV
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (3-4/231)SWAC (1-2)Bethune (3-4/213)SWAC (2-1)BETH 58%SWAC TV
3:00Lincoln CA (NA)NA
Prairie View (5-2/191)SWAC (4-0)SWAC TV
3:30Alabama St (4-2/155)
Neutral Site
SWAC (3-1)Alabama A&M
(4-3/217)
Neutral Site
SWAC (2-2)ALST 63%ESPN+
5:00Florida A&M (2-4/254)SWAC (1-1)Southern
(1-6/259)
SWAC (1-4)FLAM 51%SWAC TV
6:00Jackson St
(5-1/144)
Neutral Site
SWAC (3-0)Grambling St (4-3/196)
Neutral Site
SWAC (1-2)JACK 65%HBCUGo
Idle – Texas Southern (4-3/200)
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
2:00C Arkansas (3-4/185)UAC (2-1)West Georgia (5-3/162)UAC (2-3)WGA 65%ESPN+
3:00Tarleton (8-0/117)UAC (4-0)W Kentucky (5-2/89)USA (3-1)TARL 76%ESPN+
4:00N Alabama (2-5/239)UAC (1-2)Austin Peay (4-3/148)UAC (2-2)AP 74%ESPN+
8:00S Utah
(2-5/189)
UAC (1-2)Utah Tech
(1-6/236)
UAC (0-3)SUT 52%ESPN+
Idle – Abilene Chr (4-4/170)