G’s Expectation or What to Watch This Weekend

Welcome back, college football fans to another fun-filled week! Thank you not only to Conference USA, but also for the single Sun Belt game tonight! As a reminder, college basketball starts November 3rd and the staff here at the GCR (ok, just me) are working around the clock (ok, a few hours here and there) to get ready for both Men’s and Women’s seasons with rankings similar to football – only with a LOT more teams.

…..

But tonight is football only with three games on the slate. First, at 7:00 (all times Eastern), we have New Mexico St (3-2/101) at Liberty (2-4/119). This game will always have a special place in my heart. The year that Liberty promoted from FCS to FBS, they were an independent team. That same summer NMST, along with Idaho St who reverted back to FCS, left the Sun Belt, leaving the Aggies as an independent as well. Because it was fairly late in the scheduling process, they decided to play each other home and away in the same season. Prior to that season, the GCR, which was literally an email to a group of friends, did not have the ability to have the same team play twice in a year. In fact, there was no ranking after the regular season because of it. A flaw to be sure, but I was having trouble figuring out a solution. The email group never complained. But then, these two independents who were mediocre at best (that season) forced my hand. So instead of a two-dimensional matrix that I originally built, I had to create a multi-dimensional matrix to handle one game. Of course, that one game allowed me to incorporate not only championship week, but also both playoffs (FBS and FCS). But I digress. In previous seasons, this would be a walkover by Liberty, but the Flames aren’t what they usually are. Vegas sometimes relies on tradition, and they did here with LIB-10.5, but the GCR is all about the Aggies tonight – NMST 58.5% and to cover. The game is on CBS Sports, which I don’t get.

…..

At 7:30, we have the Sun Belt making a Tuesday night appearance with South Alabama (1-5/128) hosts Arkansas St (2-4/112). This game is on ESPN2 and will be more entertaining than the records show. The teams are fairly evenly matched, and I think it will be a one-score game. Vegas likes SALA-7.5 and the GCR thinks they will win (55.0%), but ARST will cover. At 8:00, we go back to Conference USA with FIU (2-3/126) at W Kentucky (5-1/68) on ESPNU in a decidedly uneven matchup. Vegas has WKY-10.5 and the GCR thinks they will far exceed that at 75.5% chance to win and to cover. As a reference, if you subtract the 75.5 from 50, the 25.5 is the GCR’s expected point spread.

…..

There are 7 more games before Saturday involving not only more Conference USA, but also the American, the ACC, the Big Ten, and the Mountain West. Check the information in the table below for the game information and predictions.

…..

The noon hour has some intriguing matchups: LSU at Vandy, Washington at Michigan, Baylor at TCU, but I am interested in Georgia Tech (6-0/8) at Duke (4-2/23). Both teams have done better than expected this season. It’s halfway through the season, but conference play has just started, really, so how much do we really know about any team. Can GT win the ACC and make the playoffs? It almost feels like they are already in the playoffs, in a way. They need to keep winning to get the nay-sayers off their backs. Vegas does not see that happening with DUKE-1.5. The GCR, however, sees the Yellow Jackets with an important road win 61.0% of the time and the “upset.”

…..

Midday, there’s Mississippi at Georgia which has playoff ramifications. SMU at Clemson should be somewhat interesting. Old Dominion at James Madison just about won this spot, but it has to go to…. UNLV (6-0/44) at Boise St (4-2/52). The records even match GT/Duke. UNLV is having a magical season that simply doesn’t happen that often in football. Boise St is the go-to favorite to win the Mountain West every season, it seems. So, it is not a surprise that Vegas has BOST-11.5. In my best “but not so fast” voice, UNLV has surpassed every hurdle they’ve faced this year and should again. UNLV to win 58.5% and to cover in this “upset.”

…..

Sure, the annual Southern Cal/Notre Dame game is at 7:00. Tennessee/Alabama is at 7:30 and Missouri/Auburn when you know the War Tiger Eagles are going to upset someone, is at 7:45. But give me Penn St (3-3/70) at Iowa (4-2/37). No team has fallen this far in a half season since Texas, Clemson, and others this season and Florida St last season. PSU fired their head coach who could win 10 every year but couldn’t quite win the big ones. It was a bit of a surprise and makes me wonder what was said behind closed doors. This game is intriguing because of the politics, yes, but also because of how the players respond. Although, I do not predict the Nittany Lions to win, in this situation teams fold or surprise. Even with the head coaching change, Vegas has Iowa-2.5. I think Iowa wins by a lot more at 65.5%. I hope PSU plays well, but something seems a little rotten with the quick boot there.

…..

That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. All of the games are listed below. See you next time, JoJo and G.

Time (Eastern)Away Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR Win
(nearest .5%)
GCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
FRI 7:00Louisville (4-1/11)ACC (1-1)Miami FL
(5-0/4)
ACC (1-0)MIAF-13.5MIAF 61.5%LOUESPN
FRI 10:30North Carolina
(2-3/117)
ACC (0-1)California (4-2/61)ACC (1-1)CAL-10.5CAL 74.5%CALESPN
12:00UCONN (4-2/72)IND (0-0)Boston College
(1-5/135)
ACC (0-4)BC-2.5UCON 69.0%UCONACCN
12:00Georgia Tech (6-0/8)ACC (3-0)Duke (4-2/23)ACC (3-0)DUKE-1.5GT 61.0%GTESPN
3:30SMU (4-2/42)ACC (2-0)Clemson (3-3/47)ACC (2-2)CLEM-9.5SMU 54.0%SMUACCN
6:30Washington St (3-3/65)PAC (0-0)Virginia (5-1/15)ACC (3-1)VIR-17.5VIR 78.5%VIRThe CW
7:30Pittsburgh (4-2/49)ACC (2-1)Syracuse (3-3/67)ACC (1-2)PITT-10.5PITT 62.5%PITTACCN
10:30Florida St (3-3/53)ACC (0-3)Stanford (2-4/93)ACC (1-2)FSU-17.5FSU 61.0%STANESPN
NC St (4-3/58), Virginia Tech (2-5/108), Wake Forest (4-2/50)
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Arizona (4-2/41)B12 (2-2)Houston (5-1/28)B12 (2-1)HOU-1.5HOU 63.0%HOUFS1
12:00Baylor (4-2/62)B12 (2-1)TCU (4-2/33)B12 (1-2)TCU-2.5TCU 58.5%TCUESPN2
1:00West Virginia (2-4/99)B12 (0-3)UCF (3-3/75)B12 (0-3)UCF-7.5UCF 67.5%UCFTNT/
HBO Max
4:00Texas Tech (6-0/3)B12 (3-0)Arizona St
(4-2/35)
B12 (2-1)TXTC-9.5TXTC 78.0%TXTCFox
8:00Cincinnati (5-1/19)B12 (3-0)Oklahoma St (1-5/138)B12 (0-3)CIN-22.5CIN 93.5%CINESPN2
8:00Utah (5-1/5)B12 (2-1)BYU (6-0/7)B12 (3-0)UTAH-3.5BYU 57.5%BYUFox
Idle – Colorado (3-4/54), Iowa St (5-2/27), Kansas (4-3/39), Kansas St (3-4/63)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
FRI 8:00Nebraska (5-1/20)B10 (2-1)Minnesota (4-2/57)B10 (2-1)NEB-8.5NEB 60.0%NEBFox
12:00Washington (5-1/10)B10 (2-1)Michigan (4-2/22)B10 (2-1)MICH-6.5WASH 57.5%WASHFox
3:00Purdue (2-4/98)B10 (0-3)Northwestern (4-2/55)B10 (2-1)NW-3.5NW 73.0%NWBTN
3:30Michigan St (3-3/85)B10 (0-3)Indiana (6-0/1)B10 (3-0)IND-27.5IND 91.5%INDPeacock
3:30Ohio St
(6-0/2)
B10 (3-0)Wisconsin (2-4/102)B10 (0-3)OHST-24.5OHST 97.5%OHSTCBS
6:30Oregon (5-1/14)B10 (2-1)Rutgers (3-3/69)B10 (0-3)ORE-17.5ORE 72.5%OREBTN
7:00Penn St
(3-3/70)
B10 (0-3)Iowa (4-2/37)B10 (2-1)IOWA-2.5IOWA 65.5%IOWAPeacock
7:00Maryland (4-2/40)B10 (1-2)UCLA (2-4/83)B10 (2-1)UCLA-3.5MARY 71.5%MARYFS1
7:30Southern Cal (5-1/6)B10 (3-1)Notre Dame (4-2/12)IND (0-0)ND-8.5SCAL 56.0%SCALNBC/
Peacock
Idle – Illinois (5-2/18)
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00LSU (5-1/25)SEC (2-1)Vanderbilt (5-1/26)SEC (1-1)VAND-2.5VAND 60%VANDABC
12:45Oklahoma (5-1/24)SEC (1-1)South Carolina
(3-3/77)
SEC (1-3)OKLA-5.5OKLA 64.5%OKLASECN
3:30Mississippi (6-0/17)SEC (3-0)Georgia (5-1/21)SEC (3-1)GEO-7.5MISS 52.5%MISSESPN
3:30Texas A&M (6-0/9)SEC (3-0)Arkansas
(2-4/88)
SEC (0-2)TAM-7.5TAM 73.5%TAMABC
4:15Mississippi
St
(4-2/48)
SEC (0-2)Florida (2-4/87)SEC (1-2)FLA-8.5MSST 63.0%MSSTSECN
7:00Texas (4-2/51)SEC (1-1)Kentucky (2-3/92)SEC (0-3)TEX-12.5TEX 63.5%TEXESPN
7:30Tennessee (5-1/32)SEC (2-1)Alabama (5-1/16)SEC (3-0)ALA-7.5TENN 52.5%TENNABC
7:45Missouri (5-1/34)SEC (1-1)Auburn (3-3/59)SEC (0-3)MIZZ-1.5MIZZ 61.0%MIZZSECN
Idle – none
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 7:30Tulsa (2-4/113)AAC (0-3)East Carolina (3-3/66)AAC (1-1)ECAR-17.5ECAR 66.5%ECARESPN
12:00Army (3-3/89)AAC (2-2)Tulane (5-1/29)AAC (2-0)TULN-9.5TULN 54.5%TULNESPNU
3:30UTSA (3-3/96)AAC (1-1)North Texas (5-1/38)AAC (1-1)NTEX-4.5NTEX 67.0%NTEXESPN+
3:30Temple (3-3/84)AAC (1-1)Charlotte (1-5/153)AAC (0-3)TEMP-12.5TEMP 66.5%TEMPESPN+
4:00Memphis (6-0/13)AAC (2-0)UAB (2-4/125)AAC (0-3)MEM-21.5MEM 87.5%MEMESPN2
7:30FAU (3-3/107)AAC (2-1)South Florida (5-1/30)AAC (2-0)SFLA-21.5SFLA 72.0%SFLAESPNU
Idle – Navy (6-0/45), Rice (3-4/115)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 7:00New Mexico St (3-2/101)USA (1-1)Liberty (2-4/119)USA (1-1)LIB-10.5NMST 58.5%NMSTCBS Sports
TUE 8:00FIU (2-3/126)USA (0-1)W Kentucky (5-1/68)USA (3-0)WKY-10.5WKY 75.5%WKYESPNU
WED 7:00Delaware (3-2/74)USA (1-1)Jacksonville St (3-3/116)USA (2-0)DEL-2.5DEL 52.0%JAXESPN
WED 7:00UTEP (1-5/152)USA (0-2)Sam Houston (0-6/149)USA (0-3)UTEP-2.5UTEP 53.5%UTEPCBS Sports
Idle – Kennesaw St (4-2/64), LA Tech (4-2/56), Middle Tennessee (1-5/165), Missouri St (3-3/105)
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5
OOC – Notre Dame (Southern Cal-B10), UCONN (@Boston College-ACC)
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
12:00E Michigan (2-5/137)MAC (1-2)Miami OH
(3-3/100)
MAC (2-0)MIAO-13.5MIAO 64.0%MIAOESPN+
12:00C Michigan (3-3/114)MAC (1-1)Bowling Green
(3-3/90)
MAC (1-1)BG-3.5BG 53.5%BGCBS Sports
2:00Kent St
(2-4/124)
MAC (1-1)Toledo (3-3/78)MAC (1-2)TOL-25.5TOL 68.5%KTSTESPN+
2:30Buffalo (3-3/106)MAC (2-0)UMASS (0-6/204)MAC (0-2)BUFF-16.5BUFF 73.0%BUFFESPN+
3:30N Illinois
(1-5/139)
MAC (0-2)Ohio (3-3/91)MAC (1-1)OHIO-10.5OHIO 69.0%OHIOESPN+
3:30Akron (2-5/132)MAC (1-2)Ball St
(2-4/129)
MAC (1-1)AKR-1.5BLST 54.5%BLSTESPN+
Idle – W Michigan (4-3/80)
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
FRI 9:00San Jose St (2-4/120)MWC (1-1)Utah St (3-3/95)MWC (1-1)UTST-3.5UTST 60.0%UTSTCBS Sports
3:30UNLV (6-0/44)MWC (2-0)Boise St
(4-2/52)
MWC (2-0)BOST-11.5UNLV 58.5%UNLVFS1
3:30Wyoming (3-3/109)MWC (1-1)Air Force
(1-5/122)
MWC (0-4)AF-3.5WYO 55.5%WYOCBS Sports
7:00Hawaii (5-2/76)MWC (2-1)Colorado St (2-4/111)MWC (1-1)COST-2.5HAW 65.0%HAWMWN
9:45Nevada (1-5/140)MWC (0-2)New Mexico (3-3/82)MWC (0-2)NMEX-12.5NMEX 73.5%NMEXFS1
Idle – Fresno St (5-2/79), San Diego St (5-1/43)
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
10:00Lafayette (5-2/159)PAT (3-0)Oregon St
(0-7/130)
PAC (0-0)LAF 56.0%The CW
OOC – Washington St (@Virginia-ACC)
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 7:30Arkansas St (2-4/112)SUN (1-1)South Alabama
(1-5/128)
SUN (0-2)SALA-7.5ARST 55.0%ARSTESPN2
3:00Troy (4-2/60)SUN (2-0)ULM (3-3/97)SUN (1-1)TROY-5.5TROY 56.0%TROYESPN+
3:30Old Dominion
(4-2/36)
SUN (1-1)James Madison
(5-1/31)
SUN (3-0)JMU-1.5JMU 62.0%JMUESPNU
3:30Coastal Car (3-3/86)SUN (2-1)App St
(4-2/71)
SUN (1-1)APST-10.5APST 67.0%APSTESPN+
3:30Texas St
(3-3/81)
SUN (0-2)Marshall (3-3/73)SUN (1-1)TXST-2.5MARS 56.0%MARSESPN+
5:00Southern Miss
(4-2/46)
SUN (2-0)Louisiana (2-4/103)SUN (1-1)SMIS-3.5SMIS 64.5%SMISESPN+
7:00Georgia St (1-5/123)SUN (0-2)Ga Southern (2-4/94)SUN (0-2)GASO-6.5GASO 67.5%GASOESPN+
Idle – none
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Sacred Heart (5-2/176)FCS (0-0)Montana (6-0/143)SKY (3-0)SH 64%ESPN+
5:00Weber St
(2-4/234)
SKY (0-2)Portland St (0-6/244)SKY (0-2)WEB 52%ESPN+
7:00Idaho (2-4/182)SKY (0-2)E Washington (2-4/228)SKY (1-1)IDA 54%ESPN+
9:00N Colorado (3-3/195)SKY (1-1)Sacramento
St
(3-3/163)
SKY (1-1)SAC 62%ESPN+
Idle – Cal Poly (3-4/177), Idaho St (2-5/184), Montana St (5-2/131), N Arizona (4-3/199), UC Davis (5-1/150)
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
1:30Tennessee Martin
(2-5/260)
BSOV (2-1)Gardner Webb
(4-2/164)
BSOV (2-0)GW 69%ESPN+
2:00Tennessee Tech
(6-0/133)
BSOV (3-0)Lindenwood (3-3/189)BSOV (2-0)TNTC 69%ESPN+
3:00E Illinois
(3-3/215)
BSOV (2-1)SEMO (2-4/240)BSOV (1-1)EILL 53%ESPN+
4:00Charleston So (1-6/227)BSOV (0-3)W Illinois
(1-6/241)
BSOV (0-3)CHSO 55%ESPN+
5:30Howard (3-3/208)MEAC (0-0)Tennessee St (1-5/253)BSOV (0-3)HOW 58%ESPN+
Idle – none
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
1:00Hampton (2-5/245)CAA (0-3)Villanova (4-2/155)CAA (3-1)VILL 68%FloFootball
1:00Stony Brook (3-3/172)CAA (1-1)Monmouth (5-1/148)CAA (2-0)MON 65%FloFootball
3:30New Hampshire
(3-4/198)
CAA (1-2)Campbell (2-5/225)CAA (2-1)NH 53%FloFootball
3:30Elon (4-3/168)CAA (2-1)William & Mary
(3-3/190)
CAA (2-1)pickFloFootball
3:30Rhode Island (5-2/160)CAA (3-0)Albany (1-5/248)CAA (0-2)RISL 65%FloFootball
Idle – Bryant (2-5/239), Maine (3-4/212), North Carolina A&T (1-6/256), Towson (3-4/207)
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
12:00Merrimack (3-4/213)FCS (0-0)Harvard (4-0/110)Ivy (2-0)HARV 90%ESPN+
OOC – Sacred Heart (@Montana-SKY)
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Stonehill (2-4/223)NEC (1-1)Yale (2-2/169)IVY (1-1)YALE 66%ESPN+
12:00Princeton (2-2/202)IVY (1-0)Brown (3-1/134)IVY (0-1)BRO 69%ESPN+
1:00Dartmouth (3-1/158)IVY (1-1)Fordham (1-5/259)PAT (1-2)DART 65%ESPN+
1:00Bucknell (4-3/214)PAT (1-2)Cornell (0-4/247)IVY (0-2)BUCK 56%ESPN+
1:00Penn (3-1/147)IVY (1-0)Columbia (1-3/221)IVY (0-1)PENN 61%ESPN+
OOC – Harvard (Merrimack-FCS)
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
OOC – Howard (@Tennessee St-BSOV)
Idle – Delaware St (4-3/179), Morgan St (3-4/230), NC Central (5-2/171), Norfolk St (1-6/258), South Carolina St (4-3/206)
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
1:00North Dakota St (6-0/104)MVFC (3-0)Indiana St
(2-4/201)
MVFC (0-2)NDST 82%ESPN+
2:00South Dakota (4-3/174)MVFC (2-1)N Iowa
(2-4/226)
MVFC (0-2)SDAK 53%ESPN+
3:00Youngstown St (3-3/175)MVFC (0-2)Illinois St
(4-2/161)
MVFC (1-1)ILST 59%ESPN+
3:00North Dakota (4-2/136)MVFC (2-0)S Illinois
(4-2/151)
MVFC (1-1)pickESPN+
7:00South Dakota St (6-0/127)MVFC (2-0)Murray St
(0-6/265)
MVFC (0-2)SDKS 84%ESPN+
Idle – none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Robert Morris (1-5/254)NEC (0-1)Long Island (1-5/232)NEC (0-2)LIU 62%NEC Front Row
5:00C Connecticut (4-3/191)NEC (2-0)Wagner (1-5/252)NEC (0-1)CCON 62%NEC Front Row
6:00Duquesne (4-3/193)NEC (3-0)Mercyhurst (3-4/187)NEC (3-0)MHUR 59%NEC Front Row
OOC – Stonehill (@Yale-IVY)
Idle – New Haven (4-3/222), St Francis (0-6/263)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
1:00Colgate (2-4/200)PAT (1-1)Georgetown (3-3/197)PAT (0-1)GTOW 61%ESPN+
2:00Holy Cross
(0-6/238)
PAT (0-1)Richmond (4-3/192)PAT (1-2)RICH 67%ESPN+
OOC – Bucknell (@Cornell-IVY), Fordham (Dartmouth-IVY), Lafayette (@Oregon St-P12)
Idle – Lehigh (7-0/121)
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
12:00Butler (4-3/209)PFL (2-1)Dayton (5-1/157)PFL (3-0)DAY 70%ESPN+
1:00Stetson (3-4/236)PFL (2-1)Presbyterian (6-0/146)PFL (2-0)PC 75%ESPN+
1:00Davidson (1-5/262)PFL (0-2)Drake (3-2/181)PFL (2-0)DRAK 76%ESPN+
2:00Valparaiso (1-5/249)PFL (0-2)St Thomas
(3-3/185)
PFL (1-2)STTH 75%ESPN+
2:00Marist (3-3/196)PFL (1-1)Morehead St (2-5/235)PFL (0-3)MARI 55%ESPN+
Idle – San Diego
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Furman (4-2/178)SoCon (2-1)Wofford (1-5/224)SoCon (0-2)FUR 55%ESPN+
1:30Samford (0-6/264)SoCon (0-4)VMI (1-5/243)SoCon (0-2)VMI 68%ESPN+
1:30E Tennessee St (3-4/173)SoCon (1-2)Chattanooga (2-4/183)SoCon (1-1)ETSU 52%ESPN+
2:00W Carolina (4-3/186)SoCon (3-0)Citadel (3-3/203)SoCon (2-1)WCAR 52%ESPN+
Idle – Mercer (5-1/141)
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
4:00Rio Grande (5-1/170)SLAN (1-1)Lamar (5-1/154)SLAN (2-0)LAM 58%ESPN+
5:00Northwestern St (1-5/250)SLAN (0-2)Southeastern (4-2/144)SLAN (2-0)SELA 83%ESPN+
5:30East Texas
(1-5/229)
SLAN (1-1)Incarnate Word
(2-4/220)
SLAN (0-2)IW 63%ESPN+
7:00Houston Chr (2-4/231)SLAN (1-1)McNeese (1-5/257)SLAN (0-2)HOCH 52%ESPN+
7:00Nicholls (1-5/237)SLAN (1-1)Steph F Austin
(4-2/162)
SLAN (2-0)SFA 75%ESPN+
Idle – none
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Lynchburg
(NA)
NA
(NA)
Texas Southern
(3-3/216)
SWAC (3-1)SWAC TV
3:00Lincoln
CA (NA)
NA
(NA)
Mississippi
Valley
(0-5/251)
SWAC (0-3)SWAC TV
3:00Grambling St (3-3/211)SWAC (0-2)Ark Pine Bluff (3-3/219)SWAC (1-1)GRAM 54%SWAC TV
4:00Alcorn St
(1-5/242)
SWAC (0-3)Florida A&M (1-4/261)SWAC (0-1)ACST 54%ESPN+
5:00Prairie View (4-2/205)SWAC (3-0)Southern (1-5/255)SWAC (1-3)PV 58%HBCUGo
Idle – Alabama A&M (4-3/218), Alabama St (4-2/156), Bethune (3-4/210), Jackson St (5-1/142)
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
7:00E Kentucky
(3-3/180)
UAC (1-1)N Alabama (1-5/246)UAC (0-2)EKY 53%ESPN+
7:00West Georgia (5-2/166)UAC (2-2)Tarleton
(7-0/118)
UAC (3-0)TARL 72%ESPN+
8:30Abilene Chr (4-3/167)UAC (3-0)S Utah
(1-5/194)
UAC (0-2)ABCH 52%ESPN+
Idle – Austin Peay (4-3/145), C Arkansas (3-4/188), Utah Tech (1-6/233)