It’s a little cooler of late, at least once in a while. The days are getting just a little bit shorter. High Schools are back (or almost back) in session and their football seasons have kicked off (or will shortly). The NFL preseason is in full swing. That’s right, oh good and faithful college football fans, we are about 27 hours from the first games of the 2022 season.
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There are 14 Division I games on the slate starting at 12:00 (all times Eastern) with Austin Peay of the ASUN (part of the Ohio Valley Conference last season) invading W Kentucky of Conference USA. The last game goes under the lights at 10:30pm when Vanderbilt of the SEC hopes to enjoy some Honolulu hospitality at Hawaii of the Mountain West Conference. The overall slate is…poor, to be as polite as I can put it. There are 10 FCS teams playing including 3 intraleague games. Of them, 6 had winning records last year with Florida A&M (9-3/123rd in the final GCR) leading the way. These 10 teams combined for a 57-52 (.523) record last year and averaged 173.1 (out of 258) in the final GCR. Florida A&M was the highest ranked and Howard (2-8/238) was the lowest ranked. The worst record belonged to Idaho St (1-10/215). The Group of 5 has 12 teams playing tomorrow (2 vs FCS, 2 vs Power 5, and 4 G5 games), but only 5 had winning records last year (6 played in bowls). Their combined record of 69-84 (.451) led to an average final GCR ranking of 99.4. The best record and highest rank belonged to Utah St (11-3/26), the worst record was owned by UCONN (1-11/137), and the worst ranking award went to Charlotte (5-7/147). There are 6 Power 5 teams playing and NONE of them had winning records last year. UNC had the best record and ranking (6-7/70) of the bunch and was the only P5 team to play in a bowl game last year. Vanderbilt had the worst record and ranking (2-10/116). The P5 line up tomorrow were a combined 24-49 (.329) and averaged 90.8 in the final GCR ranking (there are 65 P5 teams). Two of the P5 teams are playing FCS opponents, 2 are playing G5 teams, and there is 1 P5 matchup. Overall, the 28 teams produced 11 winning records, combined for a 150-185 (.448) record, and averaged 123.9 in the final GCR ranking.
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The single P5 game is also the most intriguing. Yes, Florida St lost to its FCS opponent (Jacksonville St) last year, so there is more pressure than normal for that kind of game. Yes, there are 2 (of the 14) games in which both teams had winning records last year (FCS game: Morehead St who went 7-4 at Mercer who went 7-3, and FCS/G5 game: Austin Peay who went 6-5 at W Kentucky who went 9-5). Yes, there’s that pesky Mountain West team playing a P5 team (Wyoming at Illinois). Yes, there’s even a close point spread when North Texas attacks UTEP favored by 1.0. But the Big Ten has a conference game week 0, which is interesting and potentially damaging to the losing team in and of itself, but the game is in Ireland. That’s right, at 12:30 tomorrow Nebraska and Northwestern play a game in the EU. It’s not the first time that’s happened, but it is a great way to kick off the season. And what better way (since Notre Dame played there last time), than have a Big Ten conference game? I really am excited about it, but early conference games (week 0, week 1) before another game is under the belt puts one team very much behind the eight ball for the rest of the season. Let’s be clear, this game will not be the highlight of the Big Ten season. Both teams were 3-9 last year. I don’t think anyone outside of Chicagoland is even thinking much about the Wildcats, the Cornhuskers have a great deal riding on this game. First, some history. Most of us old enough to remember, recall the heyday of Nebraska football when they could score almost at will without a pass, dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and do nothing but win. When Scott Frost was hired, that’s what Husker fans were expecting to happen. A return to the 70s. But Frosty has chilled the fans with 4 consecutive losing seasons (4-8, 5-7, 3-5, 3-9) for a combined 15-29 (.341) record. It’s not the worst in Nebraska history. From 1941-1961, the Huskers only had 3 winning seasons and one bowl appearance. Bill Jennings (1957-1961) compiled a 15-34-1 (.310) record. In more recent years, Bo Pelini was fired after building a 37-16 (.698) record, albeit just 1-3 (.250) in bowl games. Mike Riley went 19-19 (.500) and 1-1 (.500) in bowl games. This is year 5 of the Frost era and he may have the hottest hot seat in college football. If the Huskers lose to Northwestern, I predict (personally, not the GCR) he won’t last the season. He probably won’t anyway, to be honest. Nebraska may be in a repeat of the 1940s and 50s. But all that said, if you only watch one game Saturday, that is the game to watch. I’ll be watching it because I want to see, if they lose, is it quality of players or coaching? If they win, is it Northwestern is just awful or coaching? Here are all the games; as a reminder (F) means FCS, (G) means Group of 5, and (N) means Neutral site, and the records/GCR rank are from last year (I won’t use those after week 0).
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| Kickoff | Home | Away | Line |
| 12:00 | (G) W Kentucky (9-5/42) | (F) Austin Peay (6-5/175) | NL |
| 12:30 | (N) Nebraska (3-9/80) | (N) Northwestern (3-9/104) | NEB -11.5 |
| 3:30 | (F) Jacksonville St (5-6/191) | (F) Steph F Austin (8-4/140) | NL |
| 3:30 | (G) UNLV (2-10/126) | (F) Idaho St (1-10/215) | NL |
| 4:00 | (G) Utah St (11-3/26) | (G) UCONN (1-11/137) | UTST -26.5 |
| 4:00 | Illinois (5-7/83) | (G) Wyoming (7-6/81) | ILL -13.0 |
| 5:00 | Florida St (5-7/82) | (F) Duquesne (7-3/143) | NL |
| 7:00 | (F) Howard (2-8/238) | (F) Alabama St (5-6/204) | NL |
| 7:00 | (F) Mercer (7-3/138) | (F) Morehead St (7-4/164) | NL |
| 7:00 | (G) FAU (5-7/127) | (G) Charlotte (5-7/147) | FAU -7.5 |
| 8:15 | UNC (6-7/70) | (F) Florida A&M (9-3/123) | NL |
| 9:00 | (G) UTEP (7-6/94) | (G) North Texas (5-7/120) | NTEX -1.0 |
| 10:00 | (G) New Mexico St (2-10/128) | (G) Nevada (8-5/56) | NEV -8.5 |
| 10:30 | (G) Hawaii (6-7/109) | Vanderbilt (2-10/116) | VAND -9.0 |
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There are no GCR predictions for these games because I don’t have preseason rankings. Predictions will start soon. When we look at this slate of games, I don’t know there are any that jump out as a game to watch assuming we were in mid-season, unless you are a fan of one of them. But the true What to Watch for this weekend is college football. Finally, after 7 months of waiting, talking, transfers, realignment, coaching carousel, injuries, and pundit speculation, college football is here. Thanks for reading as always. If you have improvement opportunities, please put them in the comments. If you like what you see, please share with others. That’s it for today. G
