Greetings college football fans. I always try to post G’s Expectation during the first game each week, but, alas, I was on a plane. First, kudos to Louisiana (147) who was the rude host to Ohio (231) 49-14 last night. Could the Cajuns be returning to last year’s form or is the lowest tier of the MAC that bad – time will tell. In the FCS world, Alabama A&M (109) got a road win at Bethune Cookman (180) 30-27.
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Tonight there are 2 games going on with UCF (47) heading north to Louisville (92). Vegas likes the Knights -7.0 and the GCR does pick them to win, but the Cardinals are up 21-14 at the half in a barn burner. Just under way 10:10 to go in the first quarter, Illinois (82) is hosting Maryland (25) in a scoreless tie. Vegas has the Terps -7.0 as well and the GCR agrees with the Illini taking a third loss.
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For those who have followed for a while, normally the GCR prediction comes with a percentage and while those numbers are being produced already, with just a couple of data points, there are a lot of extremes. For example, last year there were only about 25 games with a 90% win rate. There are more than those this week. So, for this week and maybe next, I’ll just list the winner. I am tracking at the decile (set of 10% ranges) level for analysis for future improvements. Below the list of what to watch tomorrow, is every, yes, all 120 games involving Division I schools. But more on how to read that table later.
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At the noon (all times Eastern) hour, there are two games that catch my eye. The first is Cincinnati (48) at Indiana (73). In the polls the Bearcats are a top 10 team right now and the Hoosiers after playing Cinderella last year, are hoping for an invitation to relevance. Cincy is a Group of 5 school and the game is in Bloomington, but Vegas has the spread at a mere Cincinnati -3.5 (note: 3.5 is the home field advantage), so Vegas is saying the teams are relatively equal. The GCR agrees that Indiana will drop their second game of the season while the Bearcats move to 3-0. The other game I’m going to follow closely is Virginia Tech (8) at West Virginia (99). In week 1, the Hokies took out a perceived better UNC (76) team, but this is a road game against an old rival. Vegas thinks the Mountaineers will eke by -2.5, but in the first upset call of the year, VT will win the game.
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In the mid afternoon games, there are 3 that stand out. First at 2:30 Purdue (12) takes the short trip to Notre Dame (13) in a battle of undefeated teams. The Irish are favored -7.5 and while the GCR agrees, expect a close game to the end. At 3:30, another GCR top 25 game with Alabama (10) at Florida (19). One team will continue the quest, the other will likely miss the show (it is possible, but unlikely) in this incredibly important SEC battle. Vegas likes the Tide -14.5 and the GCR agrees, but I suspect this game will be a first quarter runaway for the Tide or a within-one-score-in-the-fourth-quarter type of game. If it gets boring, what has to be the most important matchup between 1-1 teams is Southern Cal (123) at Washington St (126). Note: don’t let the triple digit rankings dissuade you – there are 2 or sometimes 3 data points and will adjust as more data (and more difficult opponents) come in. The Trojans lost to Stanford (53) who lost by 17 to Kansas St (17) and cannot absorb another loss. Granted with the overall weakness of the Pac12 so far this season, the playoffs may be out of reach. After the loss, the head coach was fired and now it’s try to salvage the season. Vegas has SoCal -7.5 and the GCR agrees, but the Los Angeles soap opera will be fun to follow.
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The early evening games offer 2 really fun matchups. First, at 7:30 high-scoring (60+ in both games) Auburn (28) travels to take on the Nittany Lions of Penn St (6) who have given up a total of 23 points in their 2 wins. It’s power vs power and will be fun to watch. Vegas -5.0 and the GCR are in alignment that defense will win out. I’m also looking forward to a Mountain West clash between Utah St (31) and Air Force (49) both undefeated. In a second upset call, the Aggies defeat the Falcons (Vegas -9.0).
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In the later games, Oklahoma St (34) at Boise St (87) will be a shootout at 9:00. Vegas likes Boise St -3.5, but in a third upset of the day, the Cowboys will take one home for the Big 12. At 10:15, a game worth staying up for is Arizona St (38) at BYU (21). In a 4th upset call, BYU overcomes the Vegas +3.5 to take the victory at home.
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By the way, Louisville is up 28-21 nearing the end of the 3rd quarter, and Maryland just took the lead 3-0 with 10:43 in the half.
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One thing I am planning to do this year (I always like to have something different), is a full listing of all games every week. I’ve always had some of them, but there are 120 of them just this week. Here is a legend. After the game time, I’ve listed the away team first in College Wins-Losses (GCR rank) format, then the home team in the same. If a D1 team hasn’t played yet (the Ivy League and Marist of the Pioneer League) I show 0-0 (NR) for not ranked. If a non D1 team is playing, I list that team’s record, but NR. The next column in the Vegas favorite and the line. For some games, there was no line published (at least my sources), so I listed NL for no line. Otherwise I list the favorite -the line. The final column is the GCR winner (no percentages yet, but soon). If either team is NR, then I list NP or not projected. I’ve highlighted all NP red. I’ve highlighted the 14 upset picks in yellow for easy reference. Here is the full list:
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That’s it for today. Thanks for reading, enjoy the weekend, and please share with others, G
