Welcome to the end of another stereotypical work week. Shameless plug: our band, Project:Detour (Project Detour Band on social media) is playing tonight at 7:00ish in Roswell Ga. If you are close by and want to come party, join us. Great venue and a lot of fun. Enough of this, but thanks for letting me plug.
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We have a full slate of games this weekend including the introduction of the Ivy League!! I know, it takes a real college football geek to get excited about this. In fact, Harvard is kicking off tonight (Friday) against Merrimack (1-1/190). Two FBS games are also on tap for tonight. First, we have an ACC conference game when Florida St (2-0/23) heads to Louisville (1-1/52), kicking off at 7:30 (all times Eastern). On the surface it looks like FSU may be back, but their SOS rank is just 78 while the Cardinals have played the 5th most difficult schedule so far this season (2 road games at Syracuse and UCF). The teams are very even both on offense and defense according to the GCR metrics OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) and DER (Defensive). The OER looks at how a team scores compared to how other teams score against the same opponent and the DER does the same on the points allowed. FSU is ranked OER/DER, 75/18 and LOU 73/21. These numbers are the ranking from 1-253 (Ivy League is unranked) not the actual scores, however, it shows both teams are strong defensively. I expect a low scoring game. Vegas has the Seminoles -2.5 and the GCR agrees FSU 62% to win. NOTE: here is the disclaimer that the GCR should not be used to gamble on teenagers acting the way one hopes they will. Anyone who has ever had a teenager would agree. At 8:00 we have a Moutain West showdown between Air Force (2-0/45) and Wyoming (2-1/85). The Falcons spanked Colorado last week 41-10 while the Cowboys have a 2-game win streak after an opening loss to Illinois. The winner of this game has a huge leg up in the MWC Mountain division. Air Force looks to be a force this year and has the OER/DER edge (85/82 vs 161/189) and I expect that to continue. The GCR picks the Falcons 82% and Vegas is in line at AF -16.5.
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On Saturday, the early games are, how do we say this, generally, um, not exciting, with large point spreads. However, there are a few gems out there. In the FCS game of the week Delaware (2-0/124) heads north (up I-95?) to Rhode Island (2-0/141) in a 1:00 Colonial Conference game. The Blue Hens started the season with the first FCS win over an FBS team when they took out Navy 14-7 followed by a win over in-state rival Delaware St 35-9. That gives them a DER of a very respectable 59. The Rams scored 35 in each game (vs Stony Brook and Bryant) and have given up just up a total of 35. I see strength on strength in this game. Delaware should keep the perfect season going 60% of the time. There are 3 FBS games I’ll be watching. First at 12:00 W Kentucky (2-0/49) travels to Indiana (2-0/35) for a non-conference game. Could this be another G5 win? Possibly. The Hilltoppers are among the best in Conference USA and Indiana is the lowest ranked team in the all 2-0 Big Ten East. I think the game will be close (IND 67%), maybe a little closer than Vegas (IND -6.5). I would be surprised if Indiana runs away too far. At 2:00, another G5/P5 matchup involving not just the Sun Belt East, but one who already has a P5 win, Old Dominion (1-1/122) invades Virginia (1-1/74). The Monarchs beat Virginia Tech at home but then lost on the road at East Carolina. Which team shows up? UVA looked bad (394-222 in total yards) to Illinois last week. Can they rebound? OD’s offense is really good (OER 45) and UVA’s defense is pretty good (DER 79). Vegas has this game UVA -8.5, but the GCR only has UVA at 58%, just 3% better than home field advantage. At 2:30, one of the 6 (yes, just 6) remaining undefeated Pac 12 teams, California (2-0/38) crosses the country (or a little more than 1/2 of it) to play winless Notre Dame (0-2/51). Notre Dame’s opponents are collectively undefeated this year and they currently have the #1 SOS in the country. Cal barely beat UNLV last week. The Bears are looking at a fantastic start (they have Arizona next week and could go 4-0). The Irish are out of ANY significant bowl scenario already. Do they have the hutzpah to turn things around after the Marshall loss? In the upset of the week, part 1, the GCR thinks Cal adds to this awful season for Notre Dame, CAL 52%. It’s pretty close, I know. Vegas has the Irish -11.0.
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The midafternoon games give us three more interesting games with apologies. As meh as the early games are, the mids are really good overall. It was hard to get to 3. At 3:30, in the game of the week, BYU (2-0/41) takes on Oregon (1-1/65) in what has to be seen as a survival game for the Pac 12. Sure, Cal can lose to ND and it’s a, well, it’s Cal, right?, kind of thing. Oregon was shown to be a pretender this year playing Georgia (although it looks like many teams will share that fate at this point), but are still a bit of a darling in the Pac 12. Not to mention, BYU is a contender for a “Cincinnati” spot in the playoffs. Still a long shot, but taking down Baylor last week was a big resume builder. Vegas appears to think ORE hangs on here -3.5, which is home field advantage. In the for-real upset of the week, BYU takes care of business and keeps their best season since 1984 going 72%. At the same time, 2 teams that are coming off of very disappointing seasons take to the Plains when Auburn (2-0/33) hosts Penn St (2-0/14). Penn St beat the War Tigers last year and, on paper, look better. OER/DER of 17/19 vs Auburn’s pretty good 74/80. Vegas must have seen these stats (ha) because they have PSU -3.0. Auburn picks up its first defeat according to the GCR as well PSU 72%. At 4:00 we have to ask a strange question: is Kansas actually decent? Last week, the Jayhawks (2-0/31) beat West Virginia on the road. Traveling again, they head to Houston (1-1/75) who lost at Texas Tech in double OT last week. It’s hard to pick Kansas – they just aren’t normally a good team. Do they have enough to win on the road in back to back weeks? Their defense is suspect (DER 180), but if they can stop the Cougar attack, maybe. In upset number 3, Vegas likes G5 Houston -8.5, but the GCR is picking, yes, you heard it here, Kansas 67%. Go Jayhawks!!
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In the evening, we have an FCS team that may be beat a P5 team. Arizona (1-1/63) hosts North Dakota St (2-0/130) at 11:00. NDST has won or come in second in the FCS playoffs for the last, oh I don’t know, 852 years? They are a buzzsaw in that league and should move up, IMHO. Arizona did beat a G5 (San Diego St) team earlier this year and looks to be better. The Bison normally don’t play P5 schools, so this game is really intriguing to me. The GCR can’t yet predict games between FCS/FBS teams, but it is one to watch. The 3 FBS games in this time frame start with a 7:30 kickoff. Nevada (2-1/91) travels to Iowa (1-1/76). Nevada just lost to FCS Weber St and Iowa scored 7 again (at least this time it was a TD, not a FG and 2 safeties) against in-state rival Iowa St. To be honest, I’m not going to actually watch any of this game because I’ve seen paint dry. Nevada has an OER of 92 vs Iowa DER of 8. Iowa’s OER is 183 (out of 253) vs Nevada’s DER of 74. Neither team will be able to score. The over/under for this game is 39.5 with Vegas favoring Iowa -24.0. They’ve scored 14 points ALL SEASON and just 10 on offense! The GCR picks Iowa 66%, but I don’t see a blowout even in this mismatch. The Hawks just haven’t shown me they have a better offense than a good punt team. Also at 7:30, Michigan St (2-0/3) takes their show on the road to Washington (2-0/27) in a big game for both teams. Both are feeling good about their chances right now. MIST has an OER/DER of 29/2, granted against two MAC teams, while WASH OER/DER is 72/249, granted against a MAC team and an FCS team. Both of these teams are somewhat untested. Does the long trip hurt the Spartans? Can the Pac 12 get another win vs the Big Ten (Washington St vs Wisconsin last week)? In upset number 4, Vegas favors WASH -3.0 or slightly less than home field. The GCR has MIST 72% to win the big road game. Our last game may have been game of the week if it weren’t for that upstart App St team last week. Miami FL (2-0/25) travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M (1-1/118) at 9:00. I have this game on the slate for a similar reason as Iowa and Notre Dame. Does A&M see their season as over? Can they rebound? Do the Hurricanes victories over FCS Bethune Cookman and G5 Southern Miss, blowouts though they were, matter? One of these teams will be shown as, well, fraud is a strong word, but you know what I mean, after this game. MIAF wins? A&M was overrated from the start, again, and, since Frost is gone, Fisher’s seat gets as hot as ND’s Freeman if they lose to Cal. A&M wins? Those two cupcake games become irrelevant and in a hurry. In upset number 5, Vegas has TAM -6.5, but the GCR thinks MIAF wins on the road and demolishes any hope for A&M, MIAF 83%.
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That’s it for this edition. Have a great weekend and I’ll be ready for some relaxing football after the party tonight. All the games are listed below. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
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Time | Away | OER/DER | Home | OER/DER | Vegas | GCR |
FRI | Florida St (2-0/23) | 75/18 | Louisville (1-1/52) | 73/21 | FSU -2.5 | FSU 62% |
FRI | Air Force (2-0/45) | 85/82 | Wyoming (2-1/85) | 161/189 | AF -16.5 | AF 82% |
FRI | Merrimack (1-1/190) | NR | Harvard (0-0/NR) | NR | NL | NP |
11:00AM | Wofford (0-2/247) | 253/95 | Virginia Tech (1-1/110) | 198/56 | NL | NP |
12:00 | Georgia (2-0/1) | 22/1 | South Carolina (1-1/68) | 76/92 | UGA -24.5 | UGA 89% |
12:00 | UCONN (1-2/133) | 204/250 | Michigan (2-0/12) | 62/30 | MICH -47.5 | MICH 99% |
12:00 | Oklahoma (2-0/9) | 47/20 | Nebraska (1-2/102) | 39/85 | OKLA -11.0 | OKLA 93% |
12:00 | Youngstown St (2-0/140) | NR | Kentucky (2-0/10) | 33/27 | NL | NP |
12:00 | Texas St (1-1/98) | 199/61 | Baylor (1-1/78) | 151/41 | Baylor -30.0 | BAY 63% |
12:00 | Abilene Christian (2-0/145) | NR | Missouri (1-1/58) | 6/66 | NL | NP |
12:00 | Villanova (2-0/148) | NR | Army (0-2/119) | 87/174 | NL | NP |
12:00 | S Illinois (0-2/225) | NR | Northwestern (1-1/66) | 23/72 | NL | NP |
12:00 | Purdue (1-1/62) | 46/70 | Syracuse (2-0/4) | 5/22 | SYR -1.5 | SYR 92% |
12:00 | Cincinnati (1-1/92) – N | 166/69 | Miami OH (1-1/104) – N | 165/182 | CIN -22.0 | CIN 60% |
12:00 | Long Island (0-2/186) | 210/75 | Kent St (0-2/55) | 60/73 | NL | NP |
12:00 | W Kentucky (2-0/49) | 177/181 | Indiana (2-0/35) | 24/63 | IND -6.5 | IND 67% |
12:00 | Sacred Heart (1-1/226) | NR | Morgan St (0-2/185) | 238/171 | NL | SH 57% |
12:00 | Richmond (1-1/208) | 175/242 | Lehigh (1-1/212) | 92/95 | NL | RICH 56% |
12:30 | Bryant (0-2/240) | 166/212 | Brown (0-0/NR) | NR | NL | NP |
1:00 | Towson (2-0/154) | NR | West Virginia (0-2/84) | 28/168 | NL | NP |
1:00 | Buffalo (0-2/89) | 190/60 | Coastal Carolina (2-0/54) | 158/76 | CCAR -13.5 | CCAR 99% |
1:00 | Bucknell (0-2/252) | NR | C Michigan (0-2/73) | 10/170 | NL | NP |
1:00 | Montana (2-0/131) | NR | Indiana St (1-1/201) | 245/213 | NL | MONT 71% |
1:00 | Princeton (0-0/NR) | NR | Stetson (2-0/156) | NR | NL | NP |
1:00 | Colgate (1-1/218) | 232/184 | Penn (0-0/NR) | NR | NL | NP |
1:00 | Georgetown (1-1/205) | NR | Monmouth (0-2/239) | NR | NL | GTOW 58% |
1:00 | Delaware (2-0/124) | 208/59 | Rhode Island (2-0/141) | NR | NL | DEL 60% |
1:00 | Albany (0-2/227) | 212/235 | Fordham (2-0/149) | NR | NL | FORD 71% |
1:00 | Kentucky St (NA) | NR | Dayton (1-1/230) | NR | NL | NP |
1:30 | Cornell (0-0/NR) | NR | VMI (1-1/176) | 207/92 | NL | NP |
1:30 | Valparaiso (1-1/229) | NR | Dartmouth (0-0/NR) | NR | NL | NP |
2:00 | South Alabama (2-0/48) | 185/43 | UCLA (2-0/22) | 176/15 | UCLA -15.5 | UCLA 90% |
2:00 | Ohio (1-1/70) | 31/160 | Iowa St (2-0/15) | 68/95 | IAST -18.5 | IAST 99% |
2:00 | Old Dominion (1-1/122) | 45/172 | Virginia (1-1/74) | 201/79 | UVA -8.5 | UVA 58% |
2:00 | Murray St (0-2/170) | 239/201 | Ball St (0-2/112) | 217/236 | NL | NP |
2:00 | Rutgers (2-0/29) | 162/219 | Temple (1-1/82) | 223/90 | RUTG -18.0 | RUTG 92% |
2:00 | Cal Poly (1-1/204) | 226/159 | South Dakota (0-2/169) | 240/84 | NL | CP 57% |
2:00 | Hampton (2-0/151) | NR | Norfolk St (0-2/164) | 242/220 | NL | HAMP 67% |
2:00 | Grambling St (1-1/196) | 229/224 | Jackson St (2-0/125) | NR | NL | JACK 77% |
2:00 | Yale (0-0/NR) | NR | Holy Cross (2-0/134) | 77/228 | NL | NP |
2:00 | Lynchburg (NA) | NR | Delaware St (1-1/210) | NR | NL | NP |
2:30 | California (2-0/38) | 153/17 | Notre Dame (0-2/51) | 18/25 | ND-11.0 | CAL 52% |
3:00 | Tulane (2-0/40) | 173/95 | Kansas St (2-0/13) | 53/3 | KSST -14.0 | KSST 88% |
3:00 | North Texas (2-1/87) | 157/91 | UNLV (1-1/100) | 90/67 | UNLV -2.5 | UNLV 51% |
3:00 | Drake (0-2/228) | NR | Idaho (0-2/160) | 70/203 | NL | ID 56% |
3:00 | C Arkansas (0-2/171) | 200/214 | Idaho St (0-2/236) | 233/246 | NL | CARK 55% |
3:00 | Austin Peay (2-1/162) | 80/71 | Alabama A&M (0-2/232) | 244/252 | NL | AP 64% |
3:00 | Nicholls (0-2/193) | 251/224 | SEMO (1-1/175) | 81/229 | NL | SEMO 58% |
3:00 | Morehouse (NA) – N | NR | Howard (0-3/231) – N | 213/183 | NL | NP |
3:30 | BYU (2-0/41) | 13/13 | Oregon (1-1/65) | 84/193 | ORE -3.5 | BYU 72% |
3:30 | Mississippi (2-0/17) | 71/9 | Georgia Tech (1-1/80) | 160/167 | MISS -17.0 | MISS 94% |
3:30 | Penn St (2-0/14) | 17/19 | Auburn (2-0/33) | 74/80 | PSU -3.0 | PSU 72% |
3:30 | Vanderbilt (2-1/64) | 50/88 | N Illinois (1-1/139) | 168/156 | NILL -2.5 | VAND 78% |
3:30 | Colorado (0-2/53) | 211/62 | Minnesota (2-0/19) | 52/14 | MINN -27.5 | MINN 99% |
3:30 | New Mexico St (0-3/113) | 249/53 | Wisconsin (1-1/69) | 163/55 | WISC -37.0 | WISC 81% |
3:30 | Stony Brook (0-1/244) | NR | UMASS (0-2/79) | 1/164 | NL | NP |
3:30 | Troy (1-1/107) | 64/40 | App St (1-1/56) | 3/163 | APST -12.5 | APST 61% |
3:30 | Ga Southern (2-0/46) | 43/191 | UAB (1-1/101) | 178/58 | UAB -12.0 | GASO 68% |
3:30 | Presbyterian (1-1/211) | NR | W Carolina (1-1/195) | 194/208 | NL | WCAR 57% |
3:30 | William & Mary (2-0/132) | 174/179 | Lafayette (1-1/200) | 226/253 | NL | W&M 70% |
4:00 | ULM (1-1/136) | 184/241 | Alabama (2-0/2) | 12/4 | ALA -49.0 | ALA 99% |
4:00 | Kansas (2-0/31) | 63/180 | Houston (1-1/75) | 41/50 | HOU -8.5 | KAN 67% |
4:00 | Tennessee Martin (1-1/215) | 230/155 | Boise St (1-1/71) | 34/45 | NL | NP |
4:00 | North Dakota (1-1/251) | 219/161 | N Arizona (1-1/219) | 248/239 | NL | NAZ 55% |
4:00 | S Utah (1-1/189) | 205/240 | W Illinois (0-2/180) | 40/187 | NL | WILL 58% |
4:00 | St Francis (0-2/245) | 220/233 | Wagner (0-2/177) | 196/217 | NL | WAG 55% |
5:00 | Liberty (2-0/50) | 27/44 | Wake Forest (2-0/7) | 32/28 | WAKE -16.5 | WAKE 99% |
5:00 | Colorado St (0-2/106) | 234/195 | Washington St (2-0/43) | 25/37 | WAST -16.5 | WAST 99% |
5:00 | Marshall (2-0/44) | 82/231 | Bowling Green (0-2/111) | 67/95 | MARS -16.5 | MARS 99% |
5:00 | Sacramento St (1-0/55) | NR | N Iowa (0-2/194) | 61/165 | NL | NP |
5:00 | Southern (1-1/181) – N | 164/247 | Texas Southern (0-2/192) – N | 170/238 | NL | SOUT 59% |
6:00 | Mississippi St (2-0/8) | 11/32 | LSU (1-1/60) | 58/47 | MSST -2.5 | MSST 61% |
6:00 | NC A&T (0-2/246) | NR | Duke (2-0/5) | 37/16 | NL | NP |
6:00 | Campbell (1-1/202) | NR | East Carolina (1-1/81) | 9/36 | NL | NP |
6:00 | Charleston Southern (0-2/188) | 202/202 | E Kentucky (1-1/184) | 150/245 | NL | EKY 60% |
6:00 | Kentucky Christian (NA) | NR | Morehead St (0-2/237) | NR | NL | NP |
6:00 | Columbia (0-0/NR) | NR | Marist (0-1/253) | NR | NL | NP |
6:00 | Gardner Webb (1-1/163) | 152/81 | Elon (1-1/173) | 79/86 | NL | ELON 56% |
6:00 | NC Central (2-0/143) | NR | New Hampshire (2-0/150) | NR | NL | NCC 57% |
6:00 | Citadel (1-1/223) | NR | Mercer (1-1/167) | 92/204 | NL | MERC 58% |
6:00 | N Alabama (1-1/234) | NR | Chattanooga (2-0/135) | NR | NL | CHAT 75% |
7:00 | Toledo (2-0/42) | 66/95 | Ohio St (2-0/16) | 14/6 | OHSU -32.0 | OHSU 89% |
7:00 | Ark Pine Bluff (2-0/152) | NR | Oklahoma St (2-0/34) | 16/87 | NL | NP |
7:00 | Missouri St (2-0/146) | NR | Arkansas (2-0/28) | 8/35 | NL | NP |
7:00 | Akron (1-1/114) | 206/185 | Tennessee (20/18) | 44/33 | TENN -47.5 | TENN 99% |
7:00 | Texas Tech (2-0/32) | 156/166 | NC St (2-0/21) | 92/34 | NCST -10.0 | NCST 71% |
7:00 | Jacksonville St (3-0/123) | 92/95 | Tulsa (1-1/105) | 30/216 | NL | NP |
7:00 | Northwestern St (0-2/248) | NR | Southern Miss (0-2/67) | 54/49 | NL | NP |
7:00 | Arkansas St (1-1/83) | 88/234 | Memphis (1-1/95) | 19/194 | MEM -14.5 | MEM 57% |
7:00 | Charlotte (0-3/116) | 169/178 | Georgia St (0-2/77) | 236/57 | GAST -19.5 | GAST 82% |
7:00 | Tennessee St (0-2/242) | NR | Middle Tennessee (1-1/109) | 202/82 | NL | NP |
7:00 | N Colorado (0-2/216) | 228/175 | Lamar (0-2/178) | 57/89 | NL | LAM 55% |
7:00 | Keiser (NA) | NR | Lindenwood (1-0/158) | NR | NL | NP |
7:00 | Samford (1-1/182) | 171/68 | Tennessee Tech (1-1/165) | 230/155 | NL | TNTC 56% |
7:00 | E New Mexico St (NA) | NR | Tarleton (1-1/220) | 78/198 | NL | NP |
7:00 | Incarnate Word (2-0/128) | 20/177 | Prairie View (1-1/217) | NR | NL | IW 70% |
7:00 | St Andrews (NA) | NR | Davidson (1-1/183) | NR | NL | NP |
7:00 | C Connecticut (0-2/251) | 250/211 | SELA (0-2/168) | 247/64 | NL | SELA 55% |
7:00 | Butler (2-0/157) | NR | South Dakota St (1-1/198) | 189/95 | NL | SDST 64% |
7:00 | Delta St (NA) | NR | Mississippi Valley (0-2/233) | NR | NL | NP |
7:00 | TAM Commerce (1-1/209) | NR | Sam Houston (0-2/243) | 252/223 | NL | COMM 58% |
7:30 | Michigan St (2-0/3) | 29/2 | Washington (2-0/27) | 72/249 | WASH -3.0 | MIST 72% |
7:30 | South Florida (1-1/126) | 89/209 | Florida (1-1/59) | 15/26 | FLA -24.0 | FLA 73% |
7:30 | Pittsburgh (1-1/93) | 92/48 | W Michigan (1-1/94) | 179/158 | PITT -11.0 | PITT 60% |
7:30 | Nevada (2-1/91) | 59/74 | Iowa (1-1/76) | 183/8 | IOWA -24.0 | IOWA 66% |
7:30 | SMU (2-0/36) | 26/12 | Maryland (2-0/24) | 65/46 | MARY -2.5 | MARY 54% |
7:30 | Maine (0-2/249) | 241/227 | Boston College (0-2/108) | 69/39 | NL | NP |
7:30 | Louisiana (2-0/47) | 55/38 | Rice (1-1/97) | 182/205 | ULL -11.0 | ULL 99% |
7:30 | UCF (1-1/120) | 188/225 | FAU (2-1/96) | 172/197 | UCF -8.0 | FAU 74% |
7:30 | E Illinois (0-2/241) | 187/94 | Illinois St (1-1/199) | 218/220 | NL | ILST 59% |
8:00 | LA Tech (1-1/127) | 181/243 | Clemson (2-0/11) | 36/24 | CLEM -33.0 | CLEM 99% |
8:00 | UTSA (1-1/129) | 82/185 | Texas (1-1/57) | 2/10 | TEX -12.5 | TEX 69% |
8:00 | Montana St (2-0/137) – N | NR | Oregon St (2-0/26) – N | 7/65 | NL | NP |
8:00 | UTEP (1-2/117) | 225/176 | New Mexico (1-1/142) | 195/230 | UTEP -2.5 | NMEX 63% |
8:00 | Utah Tech (1-1/191) | NR | Weber St (2-0/121) | 159/31 | NL | WEB 81% |
8:00 | Alcorn St (0-2/214) | 197/169 | McNeese (0-2/224) | 246/222 | NL | MCN 55% |
9:00 | Miami FL (2-0/25) | 91/29 | Texas A&M (1-1/118) | 124/7 | TAM -6.5 | MIAF 83% |
10:00 | San Diego St (1-1/144) | 193/232 | Utah (1-1/90) | 92/215 | UTAH -21.0 | UTAH 69% |
10:00 | San Diego (1-1/206) | NR | UC Davis (0-2/179) | 155/190 | NL | SDIE 53% |
10:30 | Fresno St (1-1/88) | 49/157 | Southern Cal (2-0/6) | 4/23 | SCAL -11.5 | SCAL 99% |
11:00 | North Dakota St (2-0/130) | NR | Arizona (1-1/63) | 21/52 | NL | NP |
11:00 | E Michigan (1-1/103) | 51/199 | Arizona St (1-1/61) | 209/42 | AZST -20.5 | AZST 66% |
11:59 | Duquesne (1-2/174) | 191/192 | Hawaii (0-3/86) | 237/206 | NL | NP |