G’s Expectation or What to Watch Week 3

Welcome to the end of another stereotypical work week. Shameless plug: our band, Project:Detour (Project Detour Band on social media) is playing tonight at 7:00ish in Roswell Ga. If you are close by and want to come party, join us. Great venue and a lot of fun. Enough of this, but thanks for letting me plug.

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We have a full slate of games this weekend including the introduction of the Ivy League!! I know, it takes a real college football geek to get excited about this. In fact, Harvard is kicking off tonight (Friday) against Merrimack (1-1/190). Two FBS games are also on tap for tonight. First, we have an ACC conference game when Florida St (2-0/23) heads to Louisville (1-1/52), kicking off at 7:30 (all times Eastern). On the surface it looks like FSU may be back, but their SOS rank is just 78 while the Cardinals have played the 5th most difficult schedule so far this season (2 road games at Syracuse and UCF). The teams are very even both on offense and defense according to the GCR metrics OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) and DER (Defensive). The OER looks at how a team scores compared to how other teams score against the same opponent and the DER does the same on the points allowed. FSU is ranked OER/DER, 75/18 and LOU 73/21. These numbers are the ranking from 1-253 (Ivy League is unranked) not the actual scores, however, it shows both teams are strong defensively. I expect a low scoring game. Vegas has the Seminoles -2.5 and the GCR agrees FSU 62% to win. NOTE: here is the disclaimer that the GCR should not be used to gamble on teenagers acting the way one hopes they will. Anyone who has ever had a teenager would agree. At 8:00 we have a Moutain West showdown between Air Force (2-0/45) and Wyoming (2-1/85). The Falcons spanked Colorado last week 41-10 while the Cowboys have a 2-game win streak after an opening loss to Illinois. The winner of this game has a huge leg up in the MWC Mountain division. Air Force looks to be a force this year and has the OER/DER edge (85/82 vs 161/189) and I expect that to continue. The GCR picks the Falcons 82% and Vegas is in line at AF -16.5.

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On Saturday, the early games are, how do we say this, generally, um, not exciting, with large point spreads. However, there are a few gems out there. In the FCS game of the week Delaware (2-0/124) heads north (up I-95?) to Rhode Island (2-0/141) in a 1:00 Colonial Conference game. The Blue Hens started the season with the first FCS win over an FBS team when they took out Navy 14-7 followed by a win over in-state rival Delaware St 35-9. That gives them a DER of a very respectable 59. The Rams scored 35 in each game (vs Stony Brook and Bryant) and have given up just up a total of 35. I see strength on strength in this game. Delaware should keep the perfect season going 60% of the time. There are 3 FBS games I’ll be watching. First at 12:00 W Kentucky (2-0/49) travels to Indiana (2-0/35) for a non-conference game. Could this be another G5 win? Possibly. The Hilltoppers are among the best in Conference USA and Indiana is the lowest ranked team in the all 2-0 Big Ten East. I think the game will be close (IND 67%), maybe a little closer than Vegas (IND -6.5). I would be surprised if Indiana runs away too far. At 2:00, another G5/P5 matchup involving not just the Sun Belt East, but one who already has a P5 win, Old Dominion (1-1/122) invades Virginia (1-1/74). The Monarchs beat Virginia Tech at home but then lost on the road at East Carolina. Which team shows up? UVA looked bad (394-222 in total yards) to Illinois last week. Can they rebound? OD’s offense is really good (OER 45) and UVA’s defense is pretty good (DER 79). Vegas has this game UVA -8.5, but the GCR only has UVA at 58%, just 3% better than home field advantage. At 2:30, one of the 6 (yes, just 6) remaining undefeated Pac 12 teams, California (2-0/38) crosses the country (or a little more than 1/2 of it) to play winless Notre Dame (0-2/51). Notre Dame’s opponents are collectively undefeated this year and they currently have the #1 SOS in the country. Cal barely beat UNLV last week. The Bears are looking at a fantastic start (they have Arizona next week and could go 4-0). The Irish are out of ANY significant bowl scenario already. Do they have the hutzpah to turn things around after the Marshall loss? In the upset of the week, part 1, the GCR thinks Cal adds to this awful season for Notre Dame, CAL 52%. It’s pretty close, I know. Vegas has the Irish -11.0.

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The midafternoon games give us three more interesting games with apologies. As meh as the early games are, the mids are really good overall. It was hard to get to 3. At 3:30, in the game of the week, BYU (2-0/41) takes on Oregon (1-1/65) in what has to be seen as a survival game for the Pac 12. Sure, Cal can lose to ND and it’s a, well, it’s Cal, right?, kind of thing. Oregon was shown to be a pretender this year playing Georgia (although it looks like many teams will share that fate at this point), but are still a bit of a darling in the Pac 12. Not to mention, BYU is a contender for a “Cincinnati” spot in the playoffs. Still a long shot, but taking down Baylor last week was a big resume builder. Vegas appears to think ORE hangs on here -3.5, which is home field advantage. In the for-real upset of the week, BYU takes care of business and keeps their best season since 1984 going 72%. At the same time, 2 teams that are coming off of very disappointing seasons take to the Plains when Auburn (2-0/33) hosts Penn St (2-0/14). Penn St beat the War Tigers last year and, on paper, look better. OER/DER of 17/19 vs Auburn’s pretty good 74/80. Vegas must have seen these stats (ha) because they have PSU -3.0. Auburn picks up its first defeat according to the GCR as well PSU 72%. At 4:00 we have to ask a strange question: is Kansas actually decent? Last week, the Jayhawks (2-0/31) beat West Virginia on the road. Traveling again, they head to Houston (1-1/75) who lost at Texas Tech in double OT last week. It’s hard to pick Kansas – they just aren’t normally a good team. Do they have enough to win on the road in back to back weeks? Their defense is suspect (DER 180), but if they can stop the Cougar attack, maybe. In upset number 3, Vegas likes G5 Houston -8.5, but the GCR is picking, yes, you heard it here, Kansas 67%. Go Jayhawks!!

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In the evening, we have an FCS team that may be beat a P5 team. Arizona (1-1/63) hosts North Dakota St (2-0/130) at 11:00. NDST has won or come in second in the FCS playoffs for the last, oh I don’t know, 852 years? They are a buzzsaw in that league and should move up, IMHO. Arizona did beat a G5 (San Diego St) team earlier this year and looks to be better. The Bison normally don’t play P5 schools, so this game is really intriguing to me. The GCR can’t yet predict games between FCS/FBS teams, but it is one to watch. The 3 FBS games in this time frame start with a 7:30 kickoff. Nevada (2-1/91) travels to Iowa (1-1/76). Nevada just lost to FCS Weber St and Iowa scored 7 again (at least this time it was a TD, not a FG and 2 safeties) against in-state rival Iowa St. To be honest, I’m not going to actually watch any of this game because I’ve seen paint dry. Nevada has an OER of 92 vs Iowa DER of 8. Iowa’s OER is 183 (out of 253) vs Nevada’s DER of 74. Neither team will be able to score. The over/under for this game is 39.5 with Vegas favoring Iowa -24.0. They’ve scored 14 points ALL SEASON and just 10 on offense! The GCR picks Iowa 66%, but I don’t see a blowout even in this mismatch. The Hawks just haven’t shown me they have a better offense than a good punt team. Also at 7:30, Michigan St (2-0/3) takes their show on the road to Washington (2-0/27) in a big game for both teams. Both are feeling good about their chances right now. MIST has an OER/DER of 29/2, granted against two MAC teams, while WASH OER/DER is 72/249, granted against a MAC team and an FCS team. Both of these teams are somewhat untested. Does the long trip hurt the Spartans? Can the Pac 12 get another win vs the Big Ten (Washington St vs Wisconsin last week)? In upset number 4, Vegas favors WASH -3.0 or slightly less than home field. The GCR has MIST 72% to win the big road game. Our last game may have been game of the week if it weren’t for that upstart App St team last week. Miami FL (2-0/25) travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M (1-1/118) at 9:00. I have this game on the slate for a similar reason as Iowa and Notre Dame. Does A&M see their season as over? Can they rebound? Do the Hurricanes victories over FCS Bethune Cookman and G5 Southern Miss, blowouts though they were, matter? One of these teams will be shown as, well, fraud is a strong word, but you know what I mean, after this game. MIAF wins? A&M was overrated from the start, again, and, since Frost is gone, Fisher’s seat gets as hot as ND’s Freeman if they lose to Cal. A&M wins? Those two cupcake games become irrelevant and in a hurry. In upset number 5, Vegas has TAM -6.5, but the GCR thinks MIAF wins on the road and demolishes any hope for A&M, MIAF 83%.

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That’s it for this edition. Have a great weekend and I’ll be ready for some relaxing football after the party tonight. All the games are listed below. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G

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TimeAwayOER/DERHomeOER/DERVegasGCR
FRIFlorida St (2-0/23)75/18Louisville (1-1/52)73/21FSU -2.5FSU 62%
FRIAir Force (2-0/45)85/82Wyoming (2-1/85)161/189AF -16.5AF 82%
FRIMerrimack (1-1/190)NRHarvard (0-0/NR)NRNLNP
11:00AMWofford (0-2/247)253/95Virginia Tech (1-1/110)198/56NLNP
12:00Georgia (2-0/1)22/1South Carolina (1-1/68)76/92UGA -24.5UGA 89%
12:00UCONN (1-2/133)204/250Michigan (2-0/12)62/30MICH -47.5MICH 99%
12:00Oklahoma (2-0/9)47/20Nebraska (1-2/102)39/85OKLA -11.0OKLA 93%
12:00Youngstown St (2-0/140)NRKentucky (2-0/10)33/27NLNP
12:00Texas St (1-1/98)199/61Baylor (1-1/78)151/41Baylor -30.0BAY 63%
12:00Abilene Christian (2-0/145)NRMissouri (1-1/58)6/66NLNP
12:00Villanova (2-0/148)NRArmy (0-2/119)87/174NLNP
12:00S Illinois (0-2/225)NRNorthwestern (1-1/66)23/72NLNP
12:00Purdue (1-1/62)46/70Syracuse (2-0/4)5/22SYR -1.5SYR 92%
12:00Cincinnati (1-1/92) – N166/69Miami OH (1-1/104) – N165/182CIN -22.0CIN 60%
12:00Long Island (0-2/186)210/75Kent St (0-2/55)60/73NLNP
12:00W Kentucky (2-0/49)177/181Indiana (2-0/35)24/63IND -6.5IND 67%
12:00Sacred Heart (1-1/226)NRMorgan St (0-2/185)238/171NLSH 57%
12:00Richmond (1-1/208)175/242Lehigh (1-1/212)92/95NLRICH 56%
12:30Bryant (0-2/240)166/212Brown (0-0/NR)NRNLNP
1:00Towson (2-0/154)NRWest Virginia (0-2/84)28/168NLNP
1:00Buffalo (0-2/89)190/60Coastal Carolina (2-0/54)158/76CCAR -13.5CCAR 99%
1:00Bucknell (0-2/252)NRC Michigan (0-2/73)10/170NLNP
1:00Montana (2-0/131)NRIndiana St (1-1/201)245/213NLMONT 71%
1:00Princeton (0-0/NR)NRStetson (2-0/156)NRNLNP
1:00Colgate (1-1/218)232/184Penn (0-0/NR)NRNLNP
1:00Georgetown (1-1/205)NRMonmouth (0-2/239)NRNLGTOW 58%
1:00Delaware (2-0/124)208/59Rhode Island (2-0/141)NRNLDEL 60%
1:00Albany (0-2/227)212/235Fordham (2-0/149)NRNLFORD 71%
1:00Kentucky St (NA)NRDayton (1-1/230)NRNLNP
1:30Cornell (0-0/NR)NRVMI (1-1/176)207/92NLNP
1:30Valparaiso (1-1/229)NRDartmouth (0-0/NR)NRNLNP
2:00South Alabama (2-0/48)185/43UCLA (2-0/22)176/15UCLA -15.5UCLA 90%
2:00Ohio (1-1/70)31/160Iowa St (2-0/15)68/95IAST -18.5IAST 99%
2:00Old Dominion (1-1/122)45/172Virginia (1-1/74)201/79UVA -8.5UVA 58%
2:00Murray St (0-2/170)239/201Ball St (0-2/112)217/236NLNP
2:00Rutgers (2-0/29)162/219Temple (1-1/82)223/90RUTG -18.0RUTG 92%
2:00Cal Poly (1-1/204)226/159South Dakota (0-2/169)240/84NLCP 57%
2:00Hampton (2-0/151)NRNorfolk St (0-2/164)242/220NLHAMP 67%
2:00Grambling St (1-1/196)229/224Jackson St (2-0/125)NRNLJACK 77%
2:00Yale (0-0/NR)NRHoly Cross (2-0/134)77/228NLNP
2:00Lynchburg (NA)NRDelaware St (1-1/210)NRNLNP
2:30California (2-0/38)153/17Notre Dame (0-2/51)18/25ND-11.0CAL 52%
3:00Tulane (2-0/40)173/95Kansas St (2-0/13)53/3KSST -14.0KSST 88%
3:00North Texas (2-1/87)157/91UNLV (1-1/100)90/67UNLV -2.5UNLV 51%
3:00Drake (0-2/228)NRIdaho (0-2/160)70/203NLID 56%
3:00C Arkansas (0-2/171)200/214Idaho St (0-2/236)233/246NLCARK 55%
3:00Austin Peay (2-1/162)80/71Alabama A&M (0-2/232)244/252NLAP 64%
3:00Nicholls (0-2/193)251/224SEMO (1-1/175)81/229NLSEMO 58%
3:00Morehouse (NA) – NNRHoward (0-3/231) – N213/183NLNP
3:30BYU (2-0/41)13/13Oregon (1-1/65)84/193ORE -3.5BYU 72%
3:30Mississippi (2-0/17)71/9Georgia Tech (1-1/80)160/167MISS -17.0MISS 94%
3:30Penn St (2-0/14)17/19Auburn (2-0/33)74/80PSU -3.0PSU 72%
3:30Vanderbilt (2-1/64)50/88N Illinois (1-1/139)168/156NILL -2.5VAND 78%
3:30Colorado (0-2/53)211/62Minnesota (2-0/19)52/14MINN -27.5MINN 99%
3:30New Mexico St (0-3/113)249/53Wisconsin (1-1/69)163/55WISC -37.0WISC 81%
3:30Stony Brook (0-1/244)NRUMASS (0-2/79)1/164NLNP
3:30Troy (1-1/107)64/40App St (1-1/56)3/163APST -12.5APST 61%
3:30Ga Southern (2-0/46)43/191UAB (1-1/101)178/58UAB -12.0GASO 68%
3:30Presbyterian (1-1/211)NRW Carolina (1-1/195)194/208NLWCAR 57%
3:30William & Mary (2-0/132)174/179Lafayette (1-1/200)226/253NLW&M 70%
4:00ULM (1-1/136)184/241Alabama (2-0/2)12/4ALA -49.0ALA 99%
4:00Kansas (2-0/31)63/180Houston (1-1/75)41/50HOU -8.5KAN 67%
4:00Tennessee Martin (1-1/215)230/155Boise St (1-1/71)34/45NLNP
4:00North Dakota (1-1/251)219/161N Arizona (1-1/219)248/239NLNAZ 55%
4:00S Utah (1-1/189)205/240W Illinois (0-2/180)40/187NLWILL 58%
4:00St Francis (0-2/245)220/233Wagner (0-2/177)196/217NLWAG 55%
5:00Liberty (2-0/50)27/44Wake Forest (2-0/7)32/28WAKE -16.5WAKE 99%
5:00Colorado St (0-2/106)234/195Washington St (2-0/43)25/37WAST -16.5WAST 99%
5:00Marshall (2-0/44)82/231Bowling Green (0-2/111)67/95MARS -16.5MARS 99%
5:00Sacramento St (1-0/55)NRN Iowa (0-2/194)61/165NLNP
5:00Southern (1-1/181) – N164/247Texas Southern (0-2/192) – N170/238NLSOUT 59%
6:00Mississippi St (2-0/8)11/32LSU (1-1/60)58/47MSST -2.5MSST 61%
6:00NC A&T (0-2/246)NRDuke (2-0/5)37/16NLNP
6:00Campbell (1-1/202)NREast Carolina (1-1/81)9/36NLNP
6:00Charleston Southern (0-2/188)202/202E Kentucky (1-1/184)150/245NLEKY 60%
6:00Kentucky Christian (NA)NRMorehead St (0-2/237)NRNLNP
6:00Columbia (0-0/NR)NRMarist (0-1/253)NRNLNP
6:00Gardner Webb (1-1/163)152/81Elon (1-1/173)79/86NLELON 56%
6:00NC Central (2-0/143)NRNew Hampshire (2-0/150)NRNLNCC 57%
6:00Citadel (1-1/223)NRMercer (1-1/167)92/204NLMERC 58%
6:00N Alabama (1-1/234)NRChattanooga (2-0/135)NRNLCHAT 75%
7:00Toledo (2-0/42)66/95Ohio St (2-0/16)14/6OHSU -32.0OHSU 89%
7:00Ark Pine Bluff (2-0/152)NROklahoma St (2-0/34)16/87NLNP
7:00Missouri St (2-0/146)NRArkansas (2-0/28)8/35NLNP
7:00Akron (1-1/114)206/185Tennessee (20/18)44/33TENN -47.5TENN 99%
7:00Texas Tech (2-0/32)156/166NC St (2-0/21)92/34NCST -10.0NCST 71%
7:00Jacksonville St (3-0/123)92/95Tulsa (1-1/105)30/216NLNP
7:00Northwestern St (0-2/248)NRSouthern Miss (0-2/67)54/49NLNP
7:00Arkansas St (1-1/83)88/234Memphis (1-1/95)19/194MEM -14.5MEM 57%
7:00Charlotte (0-3/116)169/178Georgia St (0-2/77)236/57GAST -19.5GAST 82%
7:00Tennessee St (0-2/242)NRMiddle Tennessee (1-1/109)202/82NLNP
7:00N Colorado (0-2/216)228/175Lamar (0-2/178)57/89NLLAM 55%
7:00Keiser (NA)NRLindenwood (1-0/158)NRNLNP
7:00Samford (1-1/182)171/68Tennessee Tech (1-1/165)230/155NLTNTC 56%
7:00E New Mexico St (NA)NRTarleton (1-1/220)78/198NLNP
7:00Incarnate Word (2-0/128)20/177Prairie View (1-1/217)NRNLIW 70%
7:00St Andrews (NA)NRDavidson (1-1/183)NRNLNP
7:00C Connecticut (0-2/251)250/211SELA (0-2/168)247/64NLSELA 55%
7:00Butler (2-0/157)NRSouth Dakota St (1-1/198)189/95NLSDST 64%
7:00Delta St (NA)NRMississippi Valley (0-2/233)NRNLNP
7:00TAM Commerce (1-1/209)NRSam Houston (0-2/243)252/223NLCOMM 58%
7:30Michigan St (2-0/3)29/2Washington (2-0/27)72/249WASH -3.0MIST 72%
7:30South Florida (1-1/126)89/209Florida (1-1/59)15/26FLA -24.0FLA 73%
7:30Pittsburgh (1-1/93)92/48W Michigan (1-1/94)179/158PITT -11.0PITT 60%
7:30Nevada (2-1/91)59/74Iowa (1-1/76)183/8IOWA -24.0IOWA 66%
7:30SMU (2-0/36)26/12Maryland (2-0/24)65/46MARY -2.5MARY 54%
7:30Maine (0-2/249)241/227Boston College (0-2/108)69/39NLNP
7:30Louisiana (2-0/47)55/38Rice (1-1/97)182/205ULL -11.0ULL 99%
7:30UCF (1-1/120)188/225FAU (2-1/96)172/197UCF -8.0FAU 74%
7:30E Illinois (0-2/241)187/94Illinois St (1-1/199)218/220NLILST 59%
8:00LA Tech (1-1/127)181/243Clemson (2-0/11)36/24CLEM -33.0CLEM 99%
8:00UTSA (1-1/129)82/185Texas (1-1/57)2/10TEX -12.5TEX 69%
8:00Montana St (2-0/137) – NNROregon St (2-0/26) – N7/65NLNP
8:00UTEP (1-2/117)225/176New Mexico (1-1/142)195/230UTEP -2.5NMEX 63%
8:00Utah Tech (1-1/191)NRWeber St (2-0/121)159/31NLWEB 81%
8:00Alcorn St (0-2/214)197/169McNeese (0-2/224)246/222NLMCN 55%
9:00Miami FL (2-0/25)91/29Texas A&M (1-1/118)124/7TAM -6.5MIAF 83%
10:00San Diego St (1-1/144)193/232Utah (1-1/90)92/215UTAH -21.0UTAH 69%
10:00San Diego (1-1/206)NRUC Davis (0-2/179)155/190NLSDIE 53%
10:30Fresno St (1-1/88)49/157Southern Cal (2-0/6)4/23SCAL -11.5SCAL 99%
11:00North Dakota St (2-0/130)NRArizona (1-1/63)21/52NLNP
11:00E Michigan (1-1/103)51/199Arizona St (1-1/61)209/42AZST -20.5AZST 66%
11:59Duquesne (1-2/174)191/192Hawaii (0-3/86)237/206NLNP