G’s Expectation or What to Watch Week 4

Happy Wednesday, college football fans, and welcome back for another exciting week. For those of you who may be new to the GCR, every team starts off tied for first. The games played dictate ranking, strength of schedule, etc. Because of that, it is difficult for the algorithm to predict games until some have, you know, actually been played. Starting this week, the standard GCR % to win predictions are included for every game.

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The best game before Saturday, and the game of the week, takes us to Lincoln where we will see Illinois (3-0/15) invade Nebraska (3-0/10) in a Big Ten showdown. The game is Friday night at 8:00 (all times Eastern) and is the first conference game for both teams and critical as the schedule gets deeper. Both teams excel on defense. The Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) for the Illini is 269 (15th in the nation) and the Cornhuskers have a DER of 275 (12th). That means that Nebraska’s opponents score 10.0 points for every 27.5 points they normally average. On offense, Nebraska has a more significant with an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 146 (24th) vs an Illinois OER of 124 (76th). That means Illinois scores 12.4 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. Vegas likes Nebraska to win -8.5 and the GCR agrees with the win NEB 54%. I think the Illini will keep it closer to a 4-point game though.

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Going to the ACC for the early Saturday game, Clemson (1-1/59) hosts NC St (2-1/70). Both teams had rough starts to the season and need this first conference game (at noon) to go their way is a topsy-turvy ACC. NCST is better offensively with an OER of 144 (32nd) than defensively with a DER of 116 (94th). The Tigers are riding a blowout win over an FCS team after a blowout loss to Georgia (3-0/6) to an OER of 183 (4th) and a mediocre DER of 107 (113th). Vegas has Clemson -17.0, but the GCR is calling this game as a pick-em.

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In the afternoon, we travel to Stillwater where Oklahoma St (3-0/19) will try to defend the Big 12’s honor against new member Utah (2-0/12). This is an interesting game with both teams on hot streaks. Vegas thinks the Cowboys beat the Utes -2.0, but, in the upset of the week, Utah at 51% to win formally takes control of the conference at 3:30.

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We can stay in the state for the evening game as Tennessee (3-0/4) invades Oklahoma (3-0/14) where the Sooners are playing their first ever SEC game. On paper, the Volunteers should trounce the Sooners (top 10 OER and DER). Vegas thinks so TENN-7.5, and the GCR agrees on the win at 52% but it looks like a late field goal wins this game.

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In the FCS this week, we welcome the annual late-comers of the Ivy League who will be playing their first games of the season. I find it interesting that they all play a 10-game, 7-conference round robin slate, with no bye weeks. Most FCS teams play 11 games and most FCS teams finish their regular season the week before FBS rivalry week. With 24 teams in the playoffs, they take a week or so to get things scheduled.

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Without further ado, here is every game in the common format. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G.

Away Team
(Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team
(Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR Win
   ACC (17 teams)Core 4  
FRI 7:30Stanford (1-1/97)ACC (0-0)Syracuse (2-0/26)ACC (1-0)SYR-9.5SYR 64%
12:00James Madison (2-0/39)SUN (0-0)North Carolina (3-0/23)ACC (0-0)NCAR-11.5NCAR 56%
12:00NC St (2-1/70)ACC (0-0)Clemson (1-1/59)ACC (0-0)CLEM-17.0Pick
2:00Virginia (2-1/65)ACC (1-0)Coastal Carolina (3-0/37)SUN (0-0)VIR-3.0CCAR 59%
3:30Youngstown St (1-2/225)MVC (0-0)Pittsburgh (3-0/28)ACC (0-0)NLPITT 88%
3:30Rutgers (2-0/27)B10 (0-0)Virginia Tech (2-1/65)ACC (0-0)VT-3.0RUTG 53%
3:30Georgia Tech (3-1/46)ACC (1-1)Louisville (3-0/22)ACC (0-0)LOU-10.0LOU 59%
4:00Duke (3-0/25)ACC (0-0)Middle Tennessee (1-2/119)USA (0-1)DUKE-14.0DUKE 75%
5:00TCU (2-1/56)B12 (0-1)SMU (2-1/53)ACC (0-0)TCU-2.5SMU 54%
7:00Miami FL (3-0/5)ACC (0-0)South Florida (2-1/71)AAC (0-0)MIAF-17.5MIAF 59%
7:00California (3-0/17)ACC (0-0)Florida St (0-3/92)ACC (0-2)FSU-2.0CAL 87%
8:00Michigan St (3-0/20)B10 (1-0)Boston College (2-1/49)ACC (1-0)BC-6.5MIST 52%
Idle  Wake Forest (1-2/105)   
   Big 12 (16 teams)Core 4  
12:00Kansas (1-2/82)B12 (0-0)West Virginia (1-2/84)B12 (0-0)WVU-2.5KAN 51%
12:00Houston (1-2/77)B12 (0-0)Cincinnati (2-1/63)B12 (0-0)CIN-5.5CIN 61%
2:00Arkansas St (2-1/86)SUN (0-0)Iowa St (2-0/29)B12 (0-0)IAST-22.0IAST 63%
3:30Arizona St (3-0/21)B12 (0-0)Texas Tech (2-1/57)B12 (0-0)TXTC-3.0AZST 56%
4:00Utah (3-0/12)B12 (1-0)Oklahoma St (3-0/19)B12 (0-0)OKST-2.0UTAH 51%
8:00Baylor (2-1/47)B12 (0-1)Colorado (2-1/54)B12 (0-0)COL-1.5Pick
10:30Kansas St (3-0/16)B12 (1-0)BYU (3-0/18)B12 (0-0)KSST-7.0KSST 53%
OOC  TCU (@SMU-ACC)   
Idle  Arizona (2-1/62), UCF (3-0/11)   
   Big Ten (18 teams)Core 4  
FRI 8:00Illinois (3-0/15)B10 (0-0)Nebraska (3-0/10)B10 (0-0)NEB-8.5NEB 54%
12:00Charlotte (1-2/118)AAC (0-0)Indiana (3-0/8)B10 (1-0)IND-28.0IND 85%
12:00Marshall (1-1/107)SUN (0-0)Ohio St (2-0/9)B10 (0-0)OHST-39.5OHST 71%
12:00Villanova (3-0/130)CAA (1-0)Maryland (2-1/45)B10 (0-1)NLMARY 62%
3:30Kent St (0-3/98)MAC (0-0)Penn St (2-0/30)B10 (0-0)PSU-49.0PSU 91%
3:30UCLA (1-1/87)B10 (0-1)LSU (2-1/66)SEC (1-0)LSU-23.5LSU 60%
3:30Southern Cal (2-0/13)B10 (0-0)Michigan (2-1/50)B10 (0-0)SCAL-5.5SCAL 57%
7:00Northwestern (2-1/61)B10 (0-0)Washington (2-1/55)B10 (0-0)WASH-10.5WASH 55%
7:30Iowa (2-1/58)B10 (0-0)Minnesota (2-1/48)B10 (0-0)IOWA-2.5MINN 54%
8:30Purdue (1-1/104)B10 (0-0)Oregon St (2-1/83)P12 (0-0)ORST-5.5ORST 56%
OOC  Michigan St (@Boston College-ACC), Rutgers (@Virginia Tech-ACC)   
Idle  Oregon (3-0/24), Wisconsin (2-1/69)   
   SEC (16 teams)Core 4  
12:00Florida (1-2/101)SEC (0-1)Mississippi St (1-2/78)SEC (0-0)FLA-4.5MSST 54%
12:45Ohio (2-1/91)MAC (0-0)Kentucky (1-2/96)SEC (0-2)KENT-19.5OHIO 51%
3:30Arkansas (2-1/51)SEC (0-0)Auburn (2-1/52)SEC (0-0)AUB-3.5AUB 54%
4:15Vanderbilt (2-1/64)SEC (0-0)Missouri (3-0/7)SEC (0-0)MIZZ-20.5MIZZ 63%
7:30Bowling Green (1-1/110)MAC (0-0)Texas A&M (2-1/60)SEC (1-0)TAM-22.0TAM 61%
7:30Tennessee (3-0/4)SEC (0-0)Oklahoma (3-0/14)SEC (0-0)TENN-7.5TENN 52%
7:30Akron (1-2/129)MAC (0-0)South Carolina (2-1/67)SEC (1-1)SCAR-27.5SCAR 74%
7:45Ga Southern (2-1/95)SUN (0-0)Mississippi (3-0/3)SEC (0-0)MISS-35.5MISS 68%
8:00ULM (2-0/40)SUN (0-0)Texas (3-0/2)SEC (0-0)TEX-44.5TEX 61%
OOC  LSU (UCLA-B10)   
Idle  Alabama (3-0/1), Georgia (3-0/6)   
   AAC (14 teams)G5  
12:00Tulane (1-2/90)AAC (0-0)Louisiana (2-0/41)SUN (0-0)TULN-3.5LAU 67%
12:00Rice (1-2/139)AAC (0-0)Army (2-0/34)AAC (1-0)ARMY-6.0ARMY 75%
2:00Utah St (1-2/108)MWC (0-0)Temple (0-3/85)AAC (0-1)UTST-6.0UTST 60%
3:30Memphis (3-0/32)AAC (0-0)Navy (2-0/43)AAC (1-0)MEM-9.0MEM 51%
3:30Houston Christian (1-2/200)SLAN (0-0)UTSA (1-2/109)AAC (0-0)NLUTSA 61%
6:00East Carolina (2-1/81)AAC (0-0)Liberty (3-0/42)USA (2-0)LIB-7.5LIB 59%
7:00Tulsa (1-2/222)AAC (0-0)LA Tech (1-1/125)USA (0-0)LATC-3.5LATC 60%
7:00Wyoming (0-3/94)MWC (0-0)North Texas (2-1/88)AAC (0-0)NTEX-9.5NTEX 81%
7:00FAU (1-2/103)AAC (0-1)UCONN (1-0/102)IND (0-0)UCON-2.5UCON 55%
OOC  Charlotte (@Indiana-B10), South Florida (Miami FL-ACC)   
Idle  none   
   C-USA (10 teams)G5  
3:00Southern Miss (1-2/142)SUN (0-0)Jacksonville St (0-3/115)USA (0-0)JAX-6.5JAX 57%
5:00UTEP (0-3/100)USA (0-1)Colorado St (1-2/117)MWC (0-0)COST-9.5COST 64%
6:00Monmouth (1-2/244)CAA (1-0)FIU (1-2/112)USA (0-0)NLFIU 79%
7:00New Mexico St (1-2/121)USA (0-1)Sam Houston (2-1/72)USA (0-0)SHOU-16.5SHOU 70%
7:00Toledo (3-0/33)MAC (0-0)W Kentucky (2-1/76)USA (1-0)TOL-1.5TOL 56%
OOC  Middle Tennessee (@Duke-ACC), Liberty (East Carolina-AAC), LA Tech (Tulsa-AAC)   
Idle  Kennesaw St (0-3/128)   
   FBS Independents (3 teams)G5 (ND-C4)  
3:30C Connecticut (2-1/168)NEC (1-0)UMASS (0-3/111)IND (0-0)NLCCON64%
3:30Miami OH (0-2/131)MAC (0-0)Notre Dame (2-1/44)IND (0-0)ND-27.5ND 88%
OOC  UCONN (FAU-AAC)   
Idle  none   
   MAC (12 teams)G5  
1:00Ball St (1-1/99)MAC (0-0)C Michigan (1-2/113)MAC (0-0)CMI-6.5BLST 55%
2:00St Francis (1-2/228)NEC (0-1)E Michigan (2-1/93)MAC (0-0)NLEMI 75%
3:30Buffalo (2-1/73)MAC (0-0)N Illinois (2-0/38)MAC (0-0)NILL-14.0NILL 60%
OOC  Miami OH (@Notre Dame-IND), Kent St (@Penn St-B10), Toledo (@W Kentucky-USA), Bowling Green (@Texas A&M-SEC), Akron (@South Carolina-SEC)   
Idle  W Michigan (1-2/133)   
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5  
FRI 10:00San Jose St (3-0/36)MWC (1-0)Washington St (3-0/35)P12 (0-0)WAST-13.5SJST 53%
3:00E Washington (1-2/245)SKY (0-0)Nevada (1-3/134)MWC (0-0)NLNEV 61%
8:30Fresno St (2-1/79)MWC (0-0)New Mexico (0-3/127)MWC (0-0)FRST-15.0FRST 77%
9:45Portland St (0-2/202)SKY (0-1)Boise St (1-1/68)MWC (0-0)NLBOST 79%
MIDN Iowa (2-1/154)MVC (0-0)Hawaii (1-2/138)MWC (0-0)NLNIA 52%
OOC  Utah St (@Temple-AAC), Colorado St (UTEP-USA), Wyoming (@North Texas-AAC)   
Idle  Air Force (1-2/124), San Diego St (1-2/116), UNLV (3-0/31)   
   Pac-12 (2 teams)G5  
OOC  Washington St (San Jose St-MWC), Oregon St (Purdue-B10)   
Idle  none   
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5  
THU 7:30South Alabama (1-2/137)SUN (0-0)App St (2-1/89)SUN (0-0)APST-7.5APST 61%
7:00Florida A&M (2-1/158)SWAC (0-0)Troy (0-3/132)SUN (0-0)NLFLAM 60%
OOC  Louisiana (Tulane-AAC), James Madison (@North Carolina-ACC), Marshall (@Ohio St-B10), Arkansas St (@Iowa St-B12), Coastal Carolina (Virginia-ACC), Southern Miss (@Jacksonville St-USA), Ga Southern (@Mississippi-SEC), ULM (@Texas-SEC)   
Idle  Georgia St (2-1/80), Old Dominion (0-3/135), Texas St (2-1/75)   
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS  
3:00W Carolina (1-2/208)SoCon (0-0)Montana (2-1/153)SKY (0-0)NLMONT 69%
3:00Mercyhurst (1-2/249)NEC (0-1)Montana St (3-0/120)SKY (0-0)NLMTST 86%
6:00S Utah (1-2/186)UAC (0-0)Idaho St (1-2/214)SKY (0-0)NLSUT 54%
7:00N Arizona (2-1/145)SKY (145)Incarnate Word (1-2/234)SLAN (0-0)NLNAZ 67%
7:00Weber St (1-2/205)SKY (1-0)Northwestern St (0-3/241)SLAN (0-0)NLWEB 56%
7:00Sacramento St (1-2/188)SKY (0-0)Commerce (0-3/232)SLAN (0-0)NLSAC 56%
8:00N Colorado (0-3/246)SKY (0-0)Steph F Austin (1-2/206)SLAN (0-1)NLSFA 60%
8:00Idaho (2-1/140)SKY (0-0)Abilene Christian (2-1/152)UAC (1-0)NLIDA 51%
10:00Utah Tech (0-3/196)UAC (0-0)UC Davis (2-1/157)SKY (0-0)NLUCD 69%
OOC  E Washington (@Nevada-MWC), Portland St (@Boise St-MWC)   
Idle  Cal Poly (1-2/223)   
   Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams)FCS  
2:00St Thomas (1-2/263)PFL (0-0)Lindenwood (0-3/242)BSOV (0-0)NLLIN 62%
2:30Tennessee St (2-1/175)BSOV (0-0)Tennessee Tech (0-2/190)BSOV (0-0)NLTNST 61%
7:00SEMO (2-1/162)BSOV (1-0)S Illinois (2-1/155)MVC (0-0)NLSEMO 51%
7:00E Illinois (1-2/182)BSOV (0-0)Illinois St (2-1/164)MVC (0-0)NLILST 64%
7:00Gardner Webb (0-3/224)BSOV (0-0)Presbyterian (2-1/172)PFL (0-0)NLPC 66%
7:00Missouri St (1-2/226)MVC (0-0)Tennessee Martin (1-2/191)BSOV (1-0)NLTMAR 57%
OOC  none   
Idle  Charleston (1-2/227), W Illinois (0-3/181)   
   Colonial (16 teams)FCS  
12:00Rhode Island (2-1/171)CAA (1-0)Long Island (0-3/219)NEC (0-0)NLRI 59%
1:00Maine (1-2/251)CAA (0-1)Merrimack (1-2/215)FCS (0-0)NLMERR 70%
2:00Towson (1-2/193)CAA (0-1)North Dakota St (2-1/143)MVC (0-0)NLNDST 66%
3:00Bryant (1-2/248)CAA (0-1)New Hampshire (2-1/147)CAA (0-0)NLNH 80%
4:00Howard (2-1/160)MEAC (0-0)Hampton (2-1/173)CAA (0-0)NLHAMP 51%
5:00Stony Brook (2-1/170)CAA (0-0)Campbell (1-2/195)CAA (0-1)NLSB 58%
6:00Richmond (1-2/209)CAA (0-0)Delaware St (1-2/233)MEAC (0-0)NLRICH 53%
6:00Furman (1-2/189)SoCon (0-0)William & Mary (2-1/148)CAA (0-0)NLW&M 67%
6:00Penn (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)Delaware (2-0/125)CAA (2-0)NLNL
6:00E Tennessee St (1-2/212)SoCon (0-0)Elon (1-2/194)CAA (0-0)NLELON 55%
7:00North Carolina A&T (1-2/247)CAA (0-1)NC Central (1-2/198)MEAC (0-0)NLNCC 62%
OOC  Villanova (@Maryland-B10), Monmouth (@FIU-USA)   
Idle  Albany (1-2/243)   
   FCS Independent (2 teams)FCS  
1:00Sacred Heart (2-1/169)FCS (0-0)Stonehill (0-2/236)NEC (0-0)NLSH 62%
OOC  Merrimack (Maine-CAA)   
Idle  none   
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS  
12:00Stetson (2-1/167)PFL (0-0)Harvard (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)NLNL
12:00Lafayette (2-1/151)PAT (0-0)Columbia (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)NLNL
12:00Princeton (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)Lehigh (2-1/161)PAT (0-0)NLNL
1:00Cornell (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)Colgate (0-3/237)PAT (0-0)NLNL
1:00Brown (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)Georgetown (2-1/166)PAT (0-0)NLNL
1:00Fordham (0-3/240)PAT (0-0)Dartmouth (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)NLNL
2:00Yale (0-0/253)IVY (0-0)Holy Cross (1-2/217)PAT (0-0)NLNL
OOC  Penn (@Delaware-CAA)   
Idle  none   
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS  
1:30Norfolk St (1-3/230)MEAC (0-0)VMI (0-3/199)SoCon (0-0)NLVMI 61%
7:00Lynchburg (NA)NAMorgan St (1-2/207)MEAC (0-0)NLNL
OOC  Howard (@Hampton-CAA), Delaware St (Richmond-CAA), NC Central (North Carolina A&T-CAA)   
Idle  South Carolina St (1-2/203)   
   Missouri Valley (11 teams)FCS  
2:00Drake (1-0/141)PFL (0-0)South Dakota (1-1/180)MVC (0-0)NLDRAK 60%
2:00San Diego (2-0/136)PFL (0-0)North Dakota (2-1/149)MVC (0-0)NLSDIE 52%
7:00South Dakota St (1-1/180)MVC (0-0)Southeastern (1-2/222)SLAN (0-0)NLSDKS 61%
OOC  North Dakota St (Towson-CAA), Youngstown St (@Pittsburgh-ACC), S Illinois (SEMO-BSOV), Illinois St (E Illinois-BSOV), Missouri St (@Tennessee Martin-BSOV), N Iowa (@Hawaii-MWC)   
Idle  Indiana St (1-2/218), Murray St (1-2/184)   
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS  
12:00West Virginia Wesleyan (NA)NADuquesne (1-2/187)NEC (0-0)NLNL
4:00Robert Morris (1-2/262)NEC (1-0)Wagner (2-1/177)NEC (0-0)NLWAG 75%
OOC  Long Island (Rhode Island-CAA), Stonehill (Sacred Heart-FCS), St Francis (@E Michigan-MAC), Mercyhurst (@Montana St-SKY), C Connecticut (@UMASS-IND)   
Idle  none   
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS  
6:00Marist (0-2/235)PFL (0-0)Bucknell (1-2/238)PAT (0-0)NLBUCK 56%
OOC  Lafayette (@Columbia-IVY), Lehigh (Princeton-IVY), Colgate (Cornell-IVY), Georgetown (Brown-IVY), Fordham (@Dartmouth-IVY), Holy Cross (Yale-IVY)   
Idle  none   
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS  
12:00Ave Maria (NA)NADayton (1-1/210)PFL (0-0)NLNL
2:00Roosevelt (NA)NAValparaiso (1-2/261)PFL (0-0)NLNL
6:00Morehead St (2-1/178)PFL (0-0)E Kentucky (1-2/213)UAC (1-0)NLMHST 52%
OOC  Stetson (@Harvard-IVY), St Thomas (@Lindenwood-BSOV), Drake (@South Dakota-MVC), San Diego (@North Dakota-MVC), Marist (@Bucknell-PAT), Presbyterian (Gardner Webb-BSOV)   
Idle  Butler (3-0/114), Davidson (2-1/176)   
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS  
6:00Citadel (2-1/165)SoCon (0-0)Mercer (3-0/106)SoCon (1-0)NLMERC 62%
OOC  VMI (Norfolk St-MEAC), W Carolina (@Montana-SKY), Furman (@William & Mary-CAA), E Tennessee St (@Elon-CAA)   
Idle  Chattanooga (0-3/185), Samford (1-2/229), Wofford (2-1/179)   
   Southland (9 teams)FCS  
4:00Mississippi Valley (0-3/231)SWAC (0-0)Nicholls (0-3/220)SLAN (0-0)NLMSVL 53%
7:00Texas Southern (1-1/192)SWAC (1-0)Lamar (2-1/159)SLAN (0-0)NLLAM 62%
8:00Alcorn St (1-2/204)SWAC (0-0)McNeese (2-2/183)SLAN (1-0)NLMCN 55%
OOC  Houston Christian (@UTSA-AAC), Incarnate Word (N Arizona-SKY), Southeastern (South Dakota St-MVC), Northwestern St (Weber St-SKY), Commerce (Sacramento St-SKY), Steph F Austin (N Colorado-SKY)   
Idle  none   
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS  
3:00Clark Atlanta (NA)NABethune (0-3/221)SWAC (0-0)NLNL
7:00Jackson St (2-1/146)SWAC (1-0)Grambling St (2-1/174)SWAC (0-0)NLJACK 54%
7:00Southern (1-2/239)SWAC (0-1)Prairie View (1-2/201) SWAC (0-1)NLPV 64%
7:00C Arkansas (2-1/150)UAC (1-0)Ark Pine Bluff (1-2/197)SWAC (0-0)NLCARK 62%
7:00Alabama A&M (2-1/163)SWAC (0-0)Austin Peay (0-3/216)UAC (0-1)NLALAM 61%
OOC  Mississippi Valley (@Nicholls-SLAN), Texas Southern (@Lamar-SLAN), Florida A&M (@Troy-SUN), Alcorn St (@McNeese-SLAN)   
Idle  Alabama St (1-2/252)   
   UAC (9 teams)FCS  
7:00Tarleton (2-1/156)UAC (0-0)N Alabama (0-4/211)UAC (0-0)NLTARL 65%
OOC  E Kentucky (Morehead St-PFL), S Utah (@Idaho St-SKY), C Arkansas (@Ark Pine Bluff-SWAC), Austin Peay (Alabama A&M-SWAC), Abilene Christian (Idaho-SKY), Utah Tech (@UC Davis-SKY)   
Idle  West Georgia (1-2/250)