I know, oh great and wonderful college football fans, that this blog is normally completed the night of the first game of the week, but my short-lived vacation ends this morning and I will be at a non-football related work function tonight. All of that to say I’m a little excited for this weekend because the GCR is “fully functional.” What I mean by that is, in previous years, this week would have been the first week with predictions, and there are 17 GCR upsets coming your way. They are highlighted in yellow below along with all of the games. I hope your team does well.
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In the pre-Saturday games, there are 2 that really caught my attention because a great deal hinges on them. Iowa 4-0 (10) travels to Maryland 4-0 (17) with kickoff Friday at 8:00 (all times Eastern). This cross-divisional Big 10 match up will diminish the perfect Big 10 teams from 5 to 4 (if if if) and puts to bed if Maryland has turned a corner. The line is the Hawkeyes -3.0 and the GCR agrees that the Terps will accept a home loss in a close one 56.9%. The second game on the docket begins at 9:00 and features BYU 4-0 (16), soon to be a part of the Big 12 in a cross-state rivalry with Utah St 3-1 (65). The Cougars are in the hunt for the Group of 5 New Year’s Six spot, but must keep winning. Vegas thinks they will -8.5 and the GCR agrees 70.0%
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The early Saturday games give us 3 must watch matchups. First at 12:00, is Duke 3-1 (50) at UNC 2-2 (100). After losing to Charlotte (73), the Blue Devils have come on strong. But they face a team that was preseason AP top 10 yet sit 2-2 after losses to Virginia Tech (61) and Georgia Tech (129). The Tar Heels are no longer in the hunt for a major bowl, but a loss in this game (they are 2-0 at home) might question a bowl berth at all. The interesting thing is Vegas seems to think they are the team the voters thought they were before, you know, actually playing a game because the line is UNC -20.0 but in one of the bolder upset picks of the day (but not the boldest), Duke has shown to be a better team thus far and will win 70.2%. The second game to think about, and the boldest pick of the day is when Arkansas 4-0 (3) goes between the hedges taking on Georgia 4-0 (4). I’ll be honest, when I was looking at the schedules preseason, I thought of this game as a cake walk for the Bulldogs, but Arkansas has beaten both Texas (21) and Texas A&M (35). Granted UGA beat Clemson (71), but they are 2-2 and not the Tigers we’ve seen in previous years. After crushing Vanderbilt (153) last week (62 points scored and 77 yards given up), UGA fell from the top spot because of SOS (their opponents played thus far were 1-3 last week). And the Razorbacks are not the Commodores. UGA is favored heavily -18.5 but the GCR says it will be much closer and is picking Arkansas 55.0% (which is just about a pick ’em). It’s hard to come up with another game, but fear not, the ACC can help again as Louisville 3-1 (49) tries to knock Wake Forest 4-0 (13) off the perfection pedestal. In this upside down ACC, could the Demon Deacons win out? This is a big test. Vegas thinks they get past it -7.0 and the GCR agrees 68.9%.
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The midday games, the Bearcats of Cincinnati 3-0 (31) take on Notre Dame 4-0 (8) in a battle of the undefeateds. Vegas is high on the Ohio boys -2.0, but the GCR is picking the Irish 63.7%. Could come down to the last possession. Also in the afternoon Ohio St 3-1 (36) invades Rutgers 3-1 (15) in a must win for both teams. Vegas likes the Buckeyes -15.0, but in yet another bold pick, the Scarlet Knights protect New Jersey 62.9%. There are a lot of really good games during this time and I could’ve highlighted 7 or 8 including Mississippi (19) at Alabama (1) – Alabama will win 61.6%, but the 3rd pick is for leadership in the Colonial. James Madison 3-0 (69) travels to New Hampshire 3-1 (90). JMU went to the FCS finals last year and are a solid pick to go deep in the playoffs again, the New Hampshire, despite a 77-7 drubbing at Pittsburgh (51) last week, have established themselves as a legitimate challenger for the conference (more than one can get bids). As of this writing, there is no line, but James Madison wins 61.6%
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The evening provides 3 more beautiful matchups starting with Baylor 4-0 (12) at Oklahoma St 4-0 (7). In the round robin schedule of the Big 12 only one can emerge perfect (at most) and it won’t be Baylor. Vegas has the Cowboys -3.5 and the GCR agrees 57.0%. Later Louisiana 3-1 (71) takes on South Alabama 3-0 (34) in a matchup to compete with Coastal Carolina (27) for Sun Belt supremacy. Last year, the Cajuns were a GCR top 10 team and this year their only loss was to Texas (21). The Jaguars beat Bowling Green (123) who took out Minnesota (128) last week. The Cajuns are favored big -12.5, but expect South Alabama to win this one 69.5%. The final game of the week goes back to the FCS, this time 2 perfect teams from the Big Sky: Montana 3-0 (52) at E Washington 4-0 (53). The Grizzlies beat Washington (86), a preseason AP top 10 team in week one and have given up exactly 7 points each game. The Eagles best win was a 2 point margin against UNLV (163), but they can score at a rate of 52.5 points per game. The GCR is picking defense Montana 55.4%.
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That’s it for this week – see all the predictions below and have a great weekend. Thanks, G
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