Happy Wednesday college football fans. There is a pretty big game tonight so the what to watch is coming a day early. But before we get into that here’s a bit of interesting stuff. In a normal year by the time we get to week 7, we’d expect there to be just a couple of hands full of undefeated teams. However, when the average number of games played is around 3, we’d expect a couple dozen. Obviously this is not anything close to a normal year, so which week are we actually watching? Of conferences that are playing, the SEC is the only one not including non-conference games. Granted the ACC added Notre Dame but they are still playing 1 out of conference game. The fewer non-conference games played means it’s more like the pros – good teams will lose and probably more than once. It’s probably true that at the end of the season there may be a few X-0 teams that play more than 8 games, but I suspect it will be few. In a normal year, after 3-4 games, the Power 5 would have, maybe, 5 (or certainly 4) perfect teams per conference, and the Group of 5 might have about 5 collectively. Let’s see how this breaks down this year (for conferences where the majority of the teams have played at least 3), Power 5 first:
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ACC: UNC (3-0: 1), Notre Dame (3-0: 5), and Clemson (4-0: 6)
Big 12: Oklahoma St (3-0: 4)
SEC: Alabama (3-0: 2), Georgia (3-0: 3)
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That’s it – 6 teams. Feels NFLish a bit, doesn’t it? No, or very few patsy games and, as the saying goes, Bob’s your uncle – perfect is…hard. All three ACC teams should win fairly easily this weekend. Oklahoma St is idle because of Baylor’s (1-1) unfortunate, and very concerning, COVID outbreak. The SEC will be down to 1 because the elite are playing each other (spoiler alert: it’s the GCR Game of the Week). Now the Group of 5:
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American: Cincinnati (3-0: 21), SMU (4-0: 23), Houston (1-0: 26)
Conference USA: Marshall (3-0: 20), FAU (1-0: 27)
Independents: BYU (4-0: 19), Liberty (4-0: 25)
Sun Belt: Louisiana (3-0: 7), Coastal Carolina (3-0: 16)
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Oddly there are 10 of them – not listed above is 1-0 Air Force (24), but 3 have played just one game so “really” 7. That number will reduce: BYU and Houston face off on Friday. Cincinnati and SMU are both playing on the road as is Marshall. FAU is still not playing. Liberty is also on the road playing Syracuse (but should win), and in tonight’s game, the Sun Belt will have just 1 perfect team left as the two left battle at Cajun Field (how cool is that?).
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Which brings us to the what to watch section. We have 4 games on the slate before Saturday arrives and two of the feature these undefeated teams. First tonight at 7:30 (all times Eastern), check out the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina battling the Rajin’ Cajuns of Louisiana. As an aside, I have every game that qualifies (FBS vs FBS, or FCS vs FCS, with both teams having played at least 3 games), listed in a table below with the GCR prediction and the Vegas odds at the time of this writing. Back to the Sun Belt, Vegas has this game Louisiana -8.5, but I think it might be a little bit closer – ULL 54.1%. Please remember the caveat that all GCR predictions are for entertainment only. On Friday, BYU and Houston meet in Houston in the Cougar special (keep it clean, fans). It’s just the H-Cougars second game so the GCR has no official opinion, but Vegas thinks the B-Cougars win -4.5.
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Before we get into Saturday’s games, I’d like to take a pause. I mentioned Baylor earlier, but they are nowhere near the only team impacted by the pandemic. 2 SEC games were postponed in the last couple of days: Vandy vs Missouri and LSU/Florida. FAU has just played a single game. Mississippi has experienced an increase. Virginia and Virginia Tech had late starts. App St, and other are impacted. Kids are sick. Kids are probably scared about what’s going to happen to them. Whatever it is you do, pray, send thoughts, meditate, I don’t care, just do it. Obviously, I love college football and a perfect Saturday is at least 3 games, but none of us want anyone to experience long-term effects any more than we want to see a serious injury during a game. So, at a minimum let’s virtually rise and applaud those in quarantine or in medical care, and all of the players, coaches, staff, and volunteers who are on hold while we figure all of this out.
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Now back to the noon games for Saturday. There are 2 games that pair up 2 top 50 teams – ok, really 3, but Tulsa has only played 2 games this year so I’m not making their game against Cincinnati a must see. First, Clemson (6) invades Georgia Tech (40). I know many who read this are Tech fans, but this one will not be close. Vegas shows Clemson -27 and the GCR shows a substantial Clemson win at 62.3% which leaves us…Auburn (14) at South Carolina (39). This one should be closer, but still not a game of the hour type – Auburn 58.9%, Vegas Auburn -3.0. Instead the game to watch is Liberty (25) at Syracuse (53). The Orange are having a tough year and it will get tougher – Liberty 60.4%. Vegas likes the Flames as well -3.0.
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The afternoon games which I’m expanding to include the 6:00pm game to watch Marshall (20) at LA Tech (37). These two teams are a combined 6-1 and something has to give. The GCR thinks Marshall will remain undefeated 56.8% while Vegas is more emphatic about the Thundering Herd -13.5. Other good games: Mississippi (45) at Arkansas (35), UCF (29) at Memphis (44), and Virginia (31) at Wake Forest (45).
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The might games have two of the best match ups. First we have Boston College (17) at Virginia Tech (8). Look for Tech to win 54.7%. Vegas agrees VT -11.0. At the same time (8:00), Georgia (3) travels to Alabama (2) for SEC supremacy in the GCR Game of the Week. Alabama was pushed to its limits last week at Mississippi giving up more yards than in any other game in history. The game was a nail biter until late in the 4th and could have gone either way. Georgia is, how do I say this…, an awful first half team, but once they decide to play it is lights out. Can ‘Bama play defense? Can UGA play a whole game and stop the Tide’s offense? Vegas has the Elephants beating the Bulldogs -6.0 and the GCR is also calling a close game: ‘Bama 51.4%.
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Last week, the GCR was 6-3 for the week bringing our record to 7-3 for the season. This year, I’m keeping track of the actual percentage (thought of it too late last year and was too lazy to go back in time), and using it to test validity of the predictions. Here’s what I mean: if the GCR picks 20 games and each of them is 55.0%, 11 of them should be right (55%). Meaning a prediction of 51.4% like in the game of the week says that if these 2 teams played 1000 times, Alabama would win 514 of them. Projections in the 50s decile are more likely to miss than the 60s decile and so on. Based on that, the 10 games already predicted and played would yield a projected 6.28 wins and 3.72 losses. At 7-3, the model, albeit with a much too small sample size, is “fair”. This week, adjusted for postponed games, there are 11 games in the 50s decile and the GCR is expecting to have a 5.93-5.07 (.539) record. There are 8 games in the 60s decile with an expected 5.09-2.91 (.637) result and the 3 70s deciles games should yield a 2.16-0.84 (.722) record. Overall, the 22 games provide an expected 13.18-8.82 (.599) result.
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Of the 22 games, there are just 4 that the GCR and Vegas disagree on: they are highlighted below. Here are all 22 qualified games:
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Have a great rest of the week and weekend. Please comment or question as you wish. As always, thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
