G’s Expectation or What To Watch Week 7

Happy Tuesday college football fans! It’s an early start this week (and for the next 2 months, so maybe September just had late starts). There are 3 games on the docket tonight. First, in a game already in action, in a Conference-USA conference game Middle Tennessee (1-5/97) is hosting LA Tech (3-4/133) and is leading 3-0 with 7:07 in the first. Vegas has MTSU-2.5, but the GCR thinks LA Tech will pull out the road upset 58%. Later tonight, in a Sun Belt matchup, Coastal Carolina (2-3/93) invades App St (3-2/79). Vegas has the APST-5.5 and the GCR agrees 64% and to cover.

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The third game tonight, another Conference USA tilt, is one of our games of the week. Liberty (5-0/16), who was an independent last year travels to Jacksonville St (5-1/46), who was in the FCS last year. When Liberty takes the field they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 131 (44th in the nation) which means they score 13.3 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Gamecock DER (Defensive) of 107 (109th) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 10.7 their opponents normally score. On the flip side, JAX’s OER is 111 (101st) vs a Liberty DER of 121 (73rd). Liberty is one of just three undefeated Group of 5 teams left (which is today’s theme). Vegas likes the Flames-6.0 and the GCR agrees LIB 77% and to cover and remain perfect on the season.

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LA Tech scored a TD but the point after was blocked – LATC 6, MTSU 3 3:41 in the 1st.

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Our second perfect G5 team plays at noon on Saturday when James Madison (5-0/23) hosts Ga Southern (4-1/54) in a Sun Belt East matchup. When the Dukes have the ball they bring an OER of 113 (93rd) to face a GASO DER of 117 (78th). When the Eagles try to fly, an OER of 115 (90th) runs into a JMU DER of 123 (68th). This is the first year that James Madison is eligible to win the Sun Belt as a 2-year FCS promotee. Vegas thinks is will be fairly close with JMU-3.5, but the GCR thinks it will be a bigger margin JMU 80% and to cover.

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At 7:00 Saturday night, the Mountain West brings its best two teams so far when Wyoming (5-1/36) who knocked off previously undefeated Fresno St (5-1/42) last week tries to put the siege on Air Force (5-0/15) who is the current highest rated G5 team. The Cowboys bring an OER of 102 (128th) to face a very stingy AF DER of 196 (13th). When the Falcons try to run the ball (you’d think Air Force would be pass happy, but no), the bring a pretty good OER of 125 (58th) to face a pretty good WYO DER of 143 (42nd). Vegas likes Air Force to stay perfect as well -10.0 and the GCR agrees 93% and to cover.

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The first quarter is over and Middle Tennessee leads 10-6. Coastal Carolina has jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead with 11:07 to go in the first. Liberty and Jacksonville St are underway 0-0 11:19 in the first.

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Here are all the games for this week. I hope your team does well unless they are playing my team. Thanks for reading and sharing, G

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Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Syracuse (4-2/49)ACC (0-2)Florida St (5-0/8)ACC (3-0)FSU-17.5FSU 82%FSU
3:30Wake Forest (3-2/72)ACC (0-2)Virginia Tech (2-4/89)ACC (1-1)WF-1.0WF 69%WF
6:30Louisville (6-0/7)ACC (3-0)Pitt (1-4/118)ACC (0-2)LOU-10.0LOU 96%LOU
7:30Miami FL (4-1/26)ACC (0-1)North Carolina (5-0/11)ACC (2-0)NCAR-3.5NCAR 87%NCAR
8:00NC St (4-2/48)ACC (1-1)Duke (4-1/19)ACC (1-0)DUKE-3.5DUKE 75%DUKE
Idle  Boston College (3-3/68), Clemson (4-2/35), Georgia Tech (3-3/47), Virginia (1-5/74)    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
THU 7:00West Virginia (4-1/30)B12 (2-0)Houston (2-3/122)B12 (0-2)WVU-3.5WVU 71%WVU
12:00Iowa St (3-3/43)B12 (2-1)Cincinnati (2-3/70)B12 (0-2)CIN-3.5IAST 58%IAST
3:30Kansas (5-1/25)B12 (2-1)Oklahoma St (3-2/83)B12 (1-1)KAN-4.5KAN 67%KAN
3:30BYU (4-1/34)B12 (1-1)TCU (3-3/85)B12 (1-2)TCU-5.0BYU 81%BYU
7:00Kansas St (3-2/53)B12 (1-1)Texas Tech (3-3/61)B12 (2-1)TXTC-1.0KSST 61%KSST
OOC  none    
Idle  Baylor (2-4/95), Oklahoma (6-0/2), Texas (5-1/12), UCF (3-3/81)    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
12:00Indiana (2-3/64)B10 (0-2)Michigan (6-0/1)B10 (3-0)MICH-34.0MICH 98%MICH
12:00Ohio St (5-0/4)B10 (2-0)Purdue (2-4/80)B10 (1-2)OHST-20.0OHST 83%OHST
12:00Michigan St (2-3/59)B10 (0-2)Rutgers (4-2/41)B10 (1-2)RUTG-6.0RUTG 77%RUTG
3:30UMASS (1-6/123)IND (0-0)Penn St (5-0/3)B10 (3-0)PSU-42.0PSU>99%PSU
3:30Illinois (2-4/77)B10 (0-3)Maryland (5-1/20)B10 (2-1)MARY-14.5MARY 72%MARY
4:00Iowa (5-1/22)B10 (2-1)Wisconsin (4-1/27)B10 (2-0)WISC-9.5IOWA 57%IOWA
OOC  none    
Idle  Minnesota (3-3/56), Nebraska (3-3/71), Northwestern (3-3/75)    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
FRI 10:00Stanford (1-4/65)P12 (0-3)Colorado (4-2/39)P12 (1-2)COL-11.0COL 77%COL
3:00California (3-3/69)P12 (1-2)Utah (4-1/24)P12 (1-1)UTAH-13.5UTAH 87%UTAH
3:30Oregon (5-0/6)P12 (2-0)Washington (5-0/9)P12 (2-0)WASH-3.0ORE 53%ORE
7:00Arizona (3-3/67)P12 (1-2)Washington St (4-1/29)P12 (1-1)WAST-8.5WAST 85%WAST
7:30Southern Cal (6-0/10)P12 (4-0)Notre Dame (5-2/18)IND (0-0)ND-2.5SCAL 57%SCAL
8:00ULCA (4-1/28)P12 (1-1)Oregon St (5-1/17)P12 (2-1)ORST-5.0ORST 63%ORST
OOC  none    
Idle  Arizona St (1-5/87)    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Georgia (6-0/5)SEC (3-0)Vanderbilt (2-5/86)SEC (0-3)GEO-31.5GEO 97%GEO
12:00Arkansas (2-4/76)SEC (0-3)Alabama (5-1/13)SEC (3-0)ALA-19.5ALA 91%ALA
3:30Texas A&M (4-2/38)SEC (2-1)Tennessee (4-1/32)SEC (1-1)TENN-3.0TENN 72%TENN
3:30Florida (4-2/45)SEC (2-1)South Carolina (2-3/37)SEC (1-2)SCAR-2.0FLA 61%FLA
7:00Auburn (3-2)SEC (0-2)LSU (4-2/31)SEC (3-1)LSU-11.5LSU 62%AUB
7:30Missouri (5-1/33)SEC (1-1)Kentucky (5-1/21)SEC (2-1)KENT-2.5KENT 63%KENT
OOC  none    
Idle  Mississippi (5-1/14), Mississippi St (3-3/92)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30SMU (3-2/78)AAC (2-1)East Carolina (1-4/101)AAC (0-1)SMU-9.5SMU 66%SMU
FRI 7:00Tulane (4-1/51)AAC (1-0)Memphis (4-1/55)AAC (1-0)TULN-3.0TULN 58%TULN
12:00Temple (2-4/132)AAC (0-2)North Texas (2-3/135)AAC (0-1)NTEX-8.0NTEX 58%TEMP
2:00Navy (2-3/115)AAC (1-2)Charlotte (1-4/103)AAC (0-1)NAVY-4.0NAVY 57%NAVY
3:30FAU (2-3/113)AAC (1-0)South Florida (3-3/102)AAC (2-1)SFLA-2.0SFLA 59%SFLA
8:00UAB (2-4/91)AAC (1-1)UTSA (2-3/120)AAC (1-0)UTSA-8.5UTSA 57%UAB
OOC  none    
Idle  Tulsa (3-3/99)    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00LA Tech (3-4/133)USA (2-1)Middle Tennessee (1-5/97)USA (0-2)MTSU-2.5LATC 58%LATC
TUE 7:30Liberty (5-0/16)USA (3-0)Jacksonville St (5-1/46)USA (3-0)LIB-6.0LIB 77%LIB
WED 7:30UTEP (1-5/117)USA (0-2)FIU (3-3/126)USA (0-3)UTEP-2.0FIU 61%FIU
WED 9:00Sam Houston (0-5/90)USA (0-2)New Mexico St (3-3/124)USA (1-1)NMST-6.0NMST 62%NMST
OOC  none    
Idle  W Kentucky (4-2/73)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
3:30Troy (4-2/63)SUN (2-1)Army (2-3/129)IND (0-0)TROY-4.0TROY 67%TROY
OOC  Notre Dame (Southern Cal-P12), UMASS (Penn St-B10)    
Idle  none    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
12:00Kent St (1-5/108)MAC (0-2)E Michigan (3-3/114)MAC (1-1)EMI-10.5EMI 61%KTST
2:00Toledo (5-1/50)MAC (2-0)Ball St (1-5/106)MAC (0-2)TOL-15.5TOL 85%TOL
3:30Akron (1-5/145)MAC (0-2)C Michigan (3-3/107)MAC (1-1)CMI-13.0CMI 62%AKR
3:30Bowling Green (2-4/66)MAC (0-2)Buffalo (2-4/116)MAC (2-0)BUFF-6.0BUFF 55%BG
3:30Miami OH (5-1/44)MAC (2-0)W Michigan (2-4/104)MAC (1-1)MIAO-9.0MIAO 82%MIAO
4:00Ohio (5-1/40)MAC (2-0)N Illinois (2-4/131)MAC (1-1)OHIO-7.0OHIO 87%OHIO
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
FRI 8:00Fresno St (5-1/42)MWC (1-1)Utah St (3-3/96)MWC (1-1)FRST-7.0FRST 82%FRST
5:00UNLV (4-1/57)MWC (1-0)Nevada (0-5/62)MWC (0-1)UNLV-9.5UNLV 77%UNLV
6:00San Jose St (1-5/82)MWC (0-2)New Mexico (2-3/125)MWC (0-1)SJST-8.0NMEX 59%NMEX
7:00Wyoming (5-1/36)MWC (2-0)Air Force (5-0/15)MWC (3-0)AF-10.0AF 93%AF
9:45Boise St (3-3/100)MWC (2-0)Colorado St (2-3/127)MWC (0-1)BOST-7.0BOST 58%COST
11:00San Diego St (2-4/94)MWC (0-2)Hawaii (2-4/119)MWC (0-1)SDST-5.0HAW 55%HAW
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
TUE 7:30Coastal Carolina (2-3/93)SUN (0-2)App St (3-2/79)SUN (1-0)APST-5.5APST 64%APST
12:00Ga Southern (4-1/54)SUN (1-0)James Madison (5-0/23)SUN (2-0)JMU-3.5JMU 80%JMU
7:00Marshall (4-1/58)SUN (1-0)Georgia St (4-1/60)SUN (1-1)GAST-1.0GAST 56%GAST
7:00ULM (2-3/128)SUN (0-2)Texas St (4-2/84)SUN (1-1)TXST-16.0TXST 71%ULM
OOC  Troy (Army-IND)    
Idle  Arkansas St (3-3/105), Louisiana (4-2/88), Old Dominion (3-3/121), South Alabama (3-3/98), Southern Miss (1-5/109)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Sacramento St (4-1/149)SKY (1-1)N Colorado (0-5/224)SKY (0-2)NLSAC 61%NL
4:00Portland St (2-3/171)SKY (1-1)N Arizona (2-4/228)SKY (2-1)NLPTST 55%NL
6:00E Washington (2-3/187)SKY (1-1)Idaho St (1-4/241)SKY (1-1)NLEWA 55%NL
8:00Cal Poly (2-4/249)SKY (0-3)Montana St (4-1/140)SKY (2-1)NLMTST 63%NL
8:00UC Davis (3-3/173)SKY (1-2)Weber St (3-3/178)SKY (1-2)NLUCD 55%NL
10:30Montana (5-1/143)SKY (2-1)Idaho (5-1/134)SKY (3-0)NLIDA 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
1:30Tennessee Tech (1-4/248)BSOV (0-1)South Carolina St (2-3/226)MEAC (0-0)NLSCST 56%NL
2:00Gardner Webb (2-3/214)BSOV (1-1)Austin Peay (3-2/164)UAC (1-0)NLAP 57%NL
3:00E Illinois (4-2/163)BSOV (0-1)SEMO (1-4/238)BSOV (1-0)NLEILL 58%NL
4:00Robert Morris (2-4/229)BSOV (0-1)Byrant (2-3/206)BSOV (0-0)NLBRY 56%NL
4:00Lindenwood (3-3/204)BSOV (1-1)Charleston (2-3/198)BSOV (0-0)NLLIN 55%NL
6:00Norfolk St (2-3/255)MEAC (0-0)Tennessee St (3-2/169)BSOV (1-1)NLTNST 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Tennessee Martin (5-1/2-0)    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
1:00Long Island (1-4/231)NEC (1-1)Maine (1-5/244)CAA (1-3)NLLIU 55%NL
1:00Elon (3-3/179)CAA (3-0)Villanova (4-2/158)CAA (2-1)NLVILL 58%NL
1:00Hampton (3-2/172)CAA (1-1)Monmouth (2-3/227)CAA (1-1)NLHAMP 57%NL
1:00Albany (4-2/152)CAA (2-0)New Hampshire (2-3/220)CAA (0-2)NLALB 58%NL
1:00Richmond (3-3/200)CAA (2-1)Rhode Island (4-2/161)CAA (2-1)NLRISL 57%NL
3:00North Carolina A&T (1-4/237)CAA (0-2)Delaware (4-1/146)CAA (2-0)NLDEL 61%NL
3:30Fordham (4-2/156)PAT (1-1)Stony Brook (0-5/225)CAA (0-4)NLFORD 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Campbell (3-3/182), Towson (2-4/208), William & Mary (4-2/159)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
Idle  Kennesaw St (1-5/259)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Sacred Heart (1-5/258)NEC (1-3)Yale (2-2/195)IVY (1-1)NLYALE 56%NL
12:00Princeton (2-2/190)IVY (1-0)Brown (2-2/184)IVY (0-1)NLBRO 55%NL
1:00Howard (2-3/194)MEAC (0-0)Harvard (4-0/130)IVY (2-0)NLHARV 65%NL
1:00Bucknell (1-4/205)PAT (0-2)Cornell (2-2/213)IVY (1-1)NLCORN 56%NL
1:00Dartmouth (2-2/210)IVY (1-1)Colgate (1-4/211)PAT (0-1)NLDART 53%NL
`:30Penn (3-1/153)IVY (0-1)Columbia (2-2/181)IVY (0-1)NLPENN 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
OOC  Howard (Harvard-IVY), Norfolk St (Tennessee St-BSOV), South Carolina St (Tennessee Tech-BSOV)    
Idle  Delaware St (1-5/236), Morgan St (1-4/254), NC Central (5-1/141)    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
2:00North Dakota St (4-1/142)MVC (1-1)North Dakota (3-2/170)MVC (1-1)NLNDST 59%NL
2:00Youngstown St (3-2/166)MVC (1-1)South Dakota (4-1/139)MVC (2-0)NLSDAK 60%NL
3:00Indiana St (0-5/242)MVC (0-2)Illinois St (3-2/168)MVC (1-1)NLILST 58%NL
3:00S Illinois (4-1/150)MVC (1-1)Murray St (2-3/185)MVC (1-1)NLSILL 60%NL
3:00N Iowa (3-2/174)MVC (2-0)South Dakota St (5-0/110)MVC (2-0)NLSDKS 67%NL
4:00Missouri St (1-4/180)MVC (0-2)W Illinois (0-5/235)MVC (0-2)NLMOST 55%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
THU 7:00Wagner (2-3/215)NEC (2-0)St Francis (1-4/257)NEC (1-1)NLWAG 56%NL
12:00C Connecticut (2-3/251)NEC (0-1)Duquesne (2-3/188)NEC (1-0)NLDUQ 55%NL
OOC  Long Island (Maine-CAA), Sacred Heart (Yale-IVY)    
Idle  Merrimack (3-3/197), Stonehill (2-4/252)    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
12:00Georgetown (3-3/192)PAT (1-0)Lehigh (1-5/253)PAT (0-1)NLGTOW 57%NL
OOC  Bucknell (Cornell-IVY), Colgate (Dartmouth-IVY), Fordham (Stony Brook-CAA)    
Idle  Holy Cross (4-2/151), Lafayette (5-1/138)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
12:00San Diego (1-4/261)PFL (1-1)Marist (2-3/245)PFL (2-1)NLMAR 56%NL
1:00Davidson (3-2/175)PFL (2-0)Butler (4-2/160)PFL (2-1)NLBUT 57%NL
1:00Presbyterian (2-3/239)PFL (0-2)Dayton (2-4/256)PFL (0-3)NLPC 55%NL
1:00St Thomas (4-2/167)PFL (3-0)Drake (2-3/232)PFL (2-0)NLSTTH 57%NL
2:00Morehead St (2-3/233)PFL (1-2)Valparaiso (1-4/260)PFL (0-2)NLMHST 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Stetson (3-3/196)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:00Furman (4-1/148)SoCon (2-0)Samford (3-3/199)SoCon (2-2)NLFUR 60%NL
1:00VMI (2-3/209)SoCon (1-1)Citadel (0-6/223)SoCon (0-3)NLVMI 55%NL
3:30Wofford (0-6/240)SoCon (0-3)E Tennessee St (1-4/212)SoCon (0-2)NLETSU 53%NL
4:00Chattanooga (4-2/162)SoCon (3-1)Mercer (4-2/154)SoCon (2-1)NLCHAT 55%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  W Carolina (5-1/144)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
4:00Lamar (3-3/186)SLAN (2-0)SELA (0-6/219)SLAN (0-2)NLLAM 56%NL
4:00Northwestern St (0-5/201)SLAN (0-1)Nicholls (2-3/191)SLAN (2-0)NLNICH 64%NL
5:00Commerce (1-4/250)SLAN (1-0)Incarnate Word (4-1/147)SLAN (1-0)NLIW 62%NL
7:00Prairie View (3-3/202)SWAC (3-1)Houston Christian (2-4/234)SLAN (1-2)NLPV 53%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  McNeese (0-6/207)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Alabama A&M (3-3/193)SWAC (1-2)Grambling St (3-3/176)SWAC (2-1)NLGRAM 55%NL
3:00Alabama St (2-3/246)SWAC (2-2)Jackson St (4-2/157)SWAC (3-1)NLJACK 59%NL
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (1-4/247)SWAC (0-2)Mississippi Valley (0-5/218)SWAC (0-2)NLAPB 56%NL
3:00Texas Southern (1-4/216)SWAC (0-2)Bethune Cookman (1-4/189)SWAC (0-2)NLBETH 55%NL
5:00Lincoln (N/A)N/ASouthern (2-3/221)SWAC (2-3)NLNLNL
OOC  Prairie View (Houston Christian-SLAN)    
Idle  Florida A&M (5-1/137), Alcorn St (3-3/203)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Tarleton (4-2/165)UAC (1-1)E Kentucky (2-3/177)UAC (1-0)NLTARL 57%NL
4:00N Alabama (2-4/243)UAC (0-2)Abilene Christian (2-3/222)UAC (0-1)NLABCH 55%NL
5:00Steph F Austin (3-3/183)UAC (0-2)C Arkansas (4-2/155)UAC (2-0)NLCARK 58%NL
OOC  Austin Peay (3-2/164)    
Idle  S Utah (2-4/217), Utah Tech (2-4/230)