Howdy all you wonderful college football fans. If you are like me, it’s been a week of Mondays, but today is Thursday and the official start of another great week of college football. After last week’s relatively meh games, this week has a few that really matter. Remember, all the games are predicted at the bottom of the post and while last week was a little disappointing at 75-35 (.681), the GCR was 5-6 in upset picks, but 7-4 against the spread for a successful week from that front. There are 8 upset games this week (highlighted in yellow).
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Before I get into the picks and games to watch, Troy (120) just had a monster run against Coastal Carolina (37) and converted into a touchdown early in the first quarter. The line is CCAR -17 and the GCR agrees 74.5%. The other game tonight is South Florida (105) at East Carolina (127). It’s still scoreless about half way through the first quarter. The GCR likes the Pirates in a close game ECAR 59.2% and Vegas agrees -9.5.
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The other big thing happening in college football is the realignment merry-go-round. So far, the Big 12 lost Oklahoma (4) and Texas (21), but gained BYU (32), Cincinnati (10), Houston (36), and UCF (104). All but BYU (who is independent) came from the American Conference who replaced them with Charlotte (128), FAU (87), North Texas (158), UAB (73), Rice (74), and UTSA (11), all from Conference USA. In addition, Southern Miss (124) and Old Dominion (112) from C-USA have agreed to move to the Sun Belt. Marshall (131), also from C-USA and James Madison (111) from the FCS Colonial, are also expected to make the move to the Sun Belt. That will leave only 5 teams in C-USA and they may need to reach out to other conferences (like the MAC or maybe MWC) or settle for independents like New Mexico St (140), UCONN (178), and UMASS (138) to get them to 8 teams. Or they could try to get more FCS teams to make the move upward – either way, that conference is in a world of hurt, strength wise – the remaining 5 are FIU (176), Middle Tennessee (101), W Kentucky (100) – MTSU and WKY could be interesting to the MAC – LA Tech (77), and UTEP (52). I’ll keep monitoring because I don’t think this is over yet.
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SFLA/ECAR are still scoreless 2:04 in the 1st and TROY/CCAR remain 7-0 Troy 4:56 to go.
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There are a couple of FBS games tomorrow and one FCS game, but let’s jump to Saturday when the major games are going. At noon (all times Eastern), Iowa (12) can still win the Big 10 West but they have to get past Wisconsin (31). Both teams are in the top 20 (7 and 19, respectively) of the Defensive Efficiency rank so expect a low-scoring game. Vegas is leaning toward Wisconsin -3.5, but the GCR in the first upset of the week thinks Iowa rebounds 73.3%. I know they lost to Purdue (39) 2 weeks ago, but having a bye last week will give them time to prepare. Texas (21) will roll into Baylor (17) in a top 25 matchup in a must win for Baylor. The Bears have a conference loss, but just the one against Oklahoma St (9) and are still in the Big 12 race. Vegas thinks they will win a tight one -3.0 and the GCR agrees but thinks it will be a little easier at BAY 76.9%. The big early game is the game of the week with a matchup of in-state unbeatens when Michigan (3) invades East Lansing and the Michigan St (6) Spartans. What a matchup! Expect big hits, pulling out all stops, and the occasional big play. Vegas is going with the Wolverines on the road -4.0, but in the second upset of the week, Michigan St will throw a wrench in the Big 10 and be the lone remaining perfect team – GCR 55.0%. Both Vegas and the GCR agree it will be close – could be a last play field goal or a heart in the throat 4th quarter stop – but it will be fun to watch.
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While I was typing that, East Carolina scored a rushing TD, but missed the XP and take a 6-0 lead – early in the second. Coastal Carolina just had a long passing TD to take the lead 14-7 on the third play of the second.
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In the afternoon, there are some interesting matchups (Minnesota at Northwestern, Florida St at Clemson, ULM at App St, UTEP at FAU) but the game of the afternoon is #1 Georgia and Florida (51) in the world’s largest cocktail party in Jacksonville – kickoff at 3:30. Last year, the Gators used a win in this game to vault themselves to represent the East in the annual loss to Alabama (5) for the conference title. This year, the Bulldogs could go 6-0, retain the top spot, and with games versus Missouri (94) and at Tennessee (59), could almost punch their ticket. But this game is always full of trick plays, breakout players, and lots of big hits. Vegas sees a blow out with UGA -14.0 and the GCR thinks it will get ugly fasts as the #3 Offensive Efficiency combined with the #1 Defensive Efficiency of Georgia will crush the Gators 86.3%. Just a reminder, Offensive Efficiency is a metric I use to compare offenses. For example, if a team scores 30 on a team that only gives up 20 per game, the metric is 150. Likewise the Defensive Efficiency can be calculated. If a team normally scores 20 per game and a team gives up 10, the metric is 200. UGA has a 171 offensive score meaning that for every 10 points an opponent allows on average (including against UGA), the Bulldogs score 17.1. On defense, it’s just ridiculous. Over 7 games, they’ve given up just 46 points. No one can argue that that is really good. But when you compare that to what their opponents normally score, the metric is 384. Meaning for every 38.4 points their opponents score, UGA gives up 10.
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After a muffed kickoff return, South Florida put 14 points on the board in 31 seconds and holds a 14-6 advantage with 8:12 to go in the half. Coastal had another big play and is running away 21-7 with 7:57 in the second.
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The evening games give us a few options. For example, undefeated SMU (18) travels to Houston (36) who is perfect in American play (their only loss was against #69 Texas Tech). Cincinnati (10) is getting tons of press as THE group of 5 team, and they are the strongest, but not the only unbeaten (#11 UTSA, and #13 San Diego St) team. If SMU can get through this game, they have Memphis and UCF before a showdown at the Bearcats. And they could get a rematch 2 weeks later in the championship game. If Houston wins, they wouldn’t face Cincinnati until the championship game. This is a big one and important for both teams. The bettors cannot make up their mind as the game is listed as a pick’em (it opened HOU-1.0). But, you know the GCR always has an opinion, and that is SMU 65.5%. If that doesn’t thrill you, we have a team that, of late, hasn’t been a factor in the Pac 12, but is currently tied with their instate rival for 1st in the North as the Beavers of Oregon St (48) travel to California (132), The Bears are playing spoiler, but the Beavers would love to end the season facing the Ducks (16) for a chance to play whoever survives the South for the title. The GCR thinks they will fairly soundly at 72.6%, but Vegas thinks it will be closer at ORST -1.5. Should be a fun game. The game of the evening though is back in the Big 10. After Penn St’s (29) disastrous 9-OT loss to Illinois (66), can they bounce back and impact the other perfect team in conference play when they come to Columbus to play Ohio St (15). Penn St’s Defensive Efficiency is ranked 9th (score of 176) – they only gave up 20 in a 9-OT game, for crying out loud, but their offense is 53rd (they only scored 18). The Buckeyes defense is a little suspect compared to previous years at 42nd (score of 137), but their offense is off the charts at 176 or 2nd. When Penn St has the ball, it’s weakness on weakness, but when Ohio St has it, it’s strength on strength. Vegas sees a wipeout with OHST -18.5, but the GCR sees it just a little closer, but a Buckeye win 68.9%.
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SFLA and ECAR are at halftime with the Bulls up 14-6. With 3:11 to go in the half, Troy just punted after getting within 7 earlier. CCAR has the ball up 21-14.
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There are only 4 late night games and the best one is the 3rd upset call out of the day. Virginia (23) makes the long trip to BYU (32) and are expected by Vegas to lose a close one BYU -2.5, but before we go anywhere, the GCR says it will be close, but the Cavaliers will edge out the soon-to-be-Big-12 team 56.8%.
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That’s it for the day – see below for all the games. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend, G
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