Hello and Happy Friday!! It’s championship week!!!! We made it this far and, quite frankly, I wasn’t sure that was going to happen. To add to the fun, there are 10 other games this weekend as well. The news isn’t all rosy as some rescheduled games were cancelled even today. And last night, a Covid outbreak at Coastal Carolina (4) led to a cancellation of the Sun Belt Championship with Louisiana (9). The general consensus among football pundits is the New Year’s Six spot for the Group of 5 is Cincinnati’s (11) to lose. Basically, if the Bearcats beat Tulsa (23), they are in. If Tulsa pulls the upset, Coastal is likely in. That game is the next to last one on the slate this weekend (along with the SEC championship) just before a makeup game of also-rans (Arizona St (107) at #117 Oregon St) at 10:30 (all times Eastern). The Bearcats play for the big time with an 8:00 kickoff.
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There are other games that have a great deal on the line, of course, as well, so we’ll start with the “hey, why don’t we play this week?” games.
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Notice a) almost half the games are GCR upsets and b) 6 of the games are under 64%. There is only 1 game where both teams are over .500 (Air Force at Army). The home teams are a combined 32-42 (thanks to Army) and the traveling teams are 31-30 (thanks to A&M). If this was the slate for the weekend, it would be tough watch. None of these games have any real impact except for bowl placement – or to act as a bowl game for those teams opting out.
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There are two types of championship games each year. First, the traditional neutral site games and then the home/away games. This year, all of the Power 5 conferences are neutral site except for the Pac-12. They intend the game to be neutral, but when Southern Cal (7) is in the game, they can call it what they want, but it’s not neutral. The Group of 5 has just 2 neutral game this year when Ball St (35) takes on Buffalo (24) and Boise St (29) tackles San Jose St (19). The MAC game is in Detroit and the Mountain West in Vegas – hmm, which should we chose to visit in December? I split them into two tables: the home/away first.
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As you would expect in this arrangement, the home teams are 20-1 while the away teams are 14-6. By the way, UAB and Marshall just kicked off. That game, the Conference USA championship isn’t really going to matter (except for bowl placement, I guess). The other two are interesting. If Southern Cal beats the second best Pac 12 North Team (Washington had to back out due to Covid) to remain undefeated, how do they fit in? Especially if Ohio St loses, I have to think they are in the Playoffs, if, if, if. So much can happen between now and around 11:00 Saturday. I’ve already talked about the importance of Cincinnati. I don’t think they get a playoff spot (without a TON of help and a blowout win), but I do think the pressure of the Group of 5 spot is enough.
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Now to the neutral site games. Again, we see some GCR upsets (compared to Vegas) with the biggest Notre Dame/Clemson. If the Tigers win, both could make the playoffs if Alabama and Ohio St (or maybe Southern Cal) win (although personally a 9-1 Texas A&M (assuming they beat Tennessee) has a better argument than a 6-0 conference champion). Buffalo and San Jose both have a chance at undefeated Group of 5 (albeit shortened) seasons. Alabama has a chance to go 11-0 in the SEC and get the number 1 seed.
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Last week, the GCR hit the target going 26-11 overall although the “close-to-lock” games were, in a word, awful. Just 2 correct picks versus an expected 4.4. The lower decile games picked it up and that could be good news for this week. The highest win percentage belongs to Texas A&M at 77.7% in Knoxville. 16 of the 19 games are less than 70%. There are 7 games where the GCR and Vegas disagree on the winner. We are in for a wild and crazy weekend!!! Overall, the GCR has done pretty well at 219-81 for a 73% correct rate. Here’s the table with the complete information.
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That’s it for today. Bowls should be finalized over the weekend or early next week and I’ll add some commentary once we see the schedule. Stay safe out there folks, it’s a crazy time. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
