It’s getting close to New Year’s Eve and the party planning is going full speed. Of course, for many of us, tomorrow is a normal work day (I have the day off, but then there’s a lot of football on, so there’s that). After the games Saturday and especially the back and forth Fiesta Bowl, tomorrow’s games are a bit of a let down. You’ll see what I mean in a minute. First, the GCR was 4-0 yesterday and the bowl record is a pretty nice 16-5 or .762. I’d take that every week. I can predict with 100% certainty that the Tigers will win the FBS Championship – which one and by how much will have to wait until the January 12 after all of the other games are completed.
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I started using the Offensive (OffEff) and Defensive Efficiency (DefEff), a couple of metrics that I am becoming more and more enamored with. You can find a deeper explanation in previous blogs or from the blog in the Definitions Category. I wanted to add something for a little additional analysis. For the 65 Power 5 teams, the average OffEff is 114.6 so when comparing a team from the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, or Notre Dame, 100.0 (the overall 256 team average) is not the bogey. The collective DefEff is 126.8 – again a fairer comparison for the top tier teams. The 65 Group of 5 teams (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun, and the non-Notre Dame Independents) have an OffEff of 99.2 and a DefEff of 102.4. I’ll refer to these later on.
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The games this week start with an early kickoff at 12:30 (all times Eastern). The First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas, pits the 7-5 Western Michigan (157, 2nd in the MAC West) – yes, they are ranked 157th – and 8-4 Western Kentucky (63, 3rd in the C-USA East). This game has all the earmarks of a blowout. Let’s dig into it just a bit. As Group of 5 teams, there is less expectation of playing top 25 teams and we see that here – W. Michigan lost their only attempt. But both teams played 8 teams with 6+wins and 1 10+ game winner. The overall opponents records are similar as well – the Broncos 77-74 and the Hilltoppers 76-77. This game comes down to who can drive and who can stop – and we see some differences here. W Michigan has a stronger offense at 114, significantly better than the average Gof5 team while W Kentucky doesn’t rely on their offense a lot (OffEff of 92), slightly below average. The Broncos are slightly above in DefEff at 108, but the Hilltoppers are a defensive juggernaut at 134, good for 6th in the Group of 5. Vegas is expecting a close game at W Kentucky -3.5 but I think the defense will stuff the wild out of the Broncos. W Kentucky 72.5%
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Then at 4:00, we can tune into the Redbox Bowl out of Santa Clara where near-home team California (7-5, 76, 3rd in the Pac-12 North) will travel about 45 miles to face Illinois (6-6, 51, 4th in the Big 10 West). Against the top 25 the Bears are 1-2 and the Illini 1-3, so pretty equal there. Both teams have faced six 6+ win teams, but the Illini had 3 10+ winners on the schedule versus just 2 for Cal. The Bears faced a much more difficult overall schedule (77-72) than Illinois (68-80) – note: the Illini out of conference schedule included Akron, Connecticut, and Eastern Michigan who have a combined record of 8-29. Once again we need to look at offensive and defensive prowess to call this game. The Bears, who Vegas likes -6.0, has the 5th worst offense in the Power 5 at 76 (compare to the average of 114.6) but their defense is above average at 137. Illinois is below average in both (OffEff of 102 and DefEff of 96). This game may be close, but I don’t think it’s going to be pretty. California in a closer than expected 54.9%.
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The Music City Bowl (Nashville) kicks off at 4:00 with Mississippi State (6-6, 94, 5th in the SEC West) taking on Louisville (7-5, 37, 2nd in the ACC Atlantic). Both teams have faced very tough competition with the Bulldogs having 9 6+ win opponents and 3 10+ win teams while the Cardinals have 10 and 2 respectively. Even their opponents’ records are similar (91-57 for State and 91-59 for Louisville). The Bulldogs faced more top 25 teams but lost all 4 while Louisville was 1-1. Louisville has a high-powered offense with an OffEff of 137, significantly higher than the average P5 team, but they have an incredibly porous defense at 89, 10th worst in the P5. The Bulldogs are slightly above average offensively at 118 but below on defense at 114. Expect a high scoring game which means the better offense wins. Vegas has Mississippi State -4.0, but in the upset of the day, Louisville 68.9%
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In the next New Year’s Six Bowl, Virginia (9-4, 13, ACC runner-up) tackles Florida (10-2, 7, 2nd in the SEC East). The Miami Gardens game starts at 8:00 and should be interesting to watch. Virginia only played 1 team in the current top 25 (losing to Clemson in the ACC championship) but faced 9 6+ win teams and 2 10+ (#26 Notre Dame being the other). Florida only played 3 premier teams, beating Auburn, but losing to LSU and Georgia. Overall they played 10 6+ win teams and 3 10+ win foes. The Cavaliers faced opponents with a combined 89-74 record while Florida was a bit more challenged at 87-61. The key to this game, once again, is in the efficiency ratings. UVA has an above average offense at 128, but a significantly below average defense at 108. Florida has an even better offense at 148 and the 6th best P5 defense at 196. Vegas sees a mini-blowout at Gators -14.5. The GCR says it could be a little closer, but UVA is denied their 10th victory. Florida 61.7%.
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That’s it – tune in next time for the New Year’s Eve Bowls. Thanks for reading and sharing, G
