Happy Thanksgiving college football fans! I hope you have enjoyed your feast of choice and are watching some football (college or NFL) today. I am watching Fresno St 8-3 (39) at San Jose St 5-6 (149) right now and the Bulldogs are up 16-6 with 3:53 in the half and the Spartans, who would be bowl eligible with a win, just had their QB knocked out at least for a few plays. There are 20 5-6 teams and 2 4-6 teams who could/will have their bowl eligibility determined this weekend. I’ve highlighted them in blue in the predictions below. The GCR (and Vegas, though not necessarily the same mix of winners) predicts only 7 of those teams to win. Given that there are 4 head-to-head matchups, the others 14 should go a paltry 3-11. Also, the FCS playoffs start Saturday (highlighted green in the predictions).
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Fresno St just recovered a fumble with less than 2:00 in the half and two plays later connected on a 45-yard TD to go up 23-6 with 1:32 in the half.
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Normally I list games to watch by date and time, but this week is different. Of the 10 conference championship games next week, only 3 are already set. Let’s look at each conference one by one and see the scenarios. This is about to get a little weird.
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In the American Conference, both Cincinnati 11-0 (7) and Houston 10-1 (20) are perfect in the conference with the Cougars only loss to Texas Tech (65) in week 1. Regardless of the outcome of the Bearcats matchup with East Carolina (74), the two will meet for the championship at the location of the higher rated team in the College Football Playoff ranking. Currently that is Cincinnati, and probably would be even with a loss, especially since Houston is playing UCONN (143) which will not earn any points.
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San Jose just drove the field and picked up another 3 to trail 23-9 with 0:25 in the half.
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In the ACC, Pittsburgh 9-2 (21) has clinched the Coastal and a ticket to Charlotte next week. Their opponent is not so clear. Currently Wake Forest 9-2 (13) is officially 6-1 (the loss to UNC was a non-conference game), but Clemson 8-3 (19) is 6-2 and NC St 8-3 (27) is 5-2. If the Demon Deacons win vs Boston College 6-5 (92), they will face the Panthers. If Wake loses AND NC St wins against UNC 6-5 (61), there would be a 3-way tie, and, if I understand the tie-breaking rules correctly, NC St would win the division. Here’s why: NC St beat Clemson (but lost to Wake), but Clemson and NC St would be 5-1 in the division while Wake would 4-2, thus eliminating them. If Wake and NC St both lose, then Clemson would win due to the victory over the Deacons.
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In the Big 12, Oklahoma 10-1 (8) and Oklahoma St 10-1 (6) face each other Saturday in one of the more exciting games of the day. They are both 7-1 in the conference, but Baylor 9-2 (10) will be in a tie with the loser of the game (assuming they beat Texas Tech 6-5 (56). If Baylor loses, the Oklahomas face each other again next week in Arlington. Oklahoma St is in regardless of scenario because they beat the Bears. Oklahoma is in with a win Saturday OR a Baylor loss. Baylor is in with a win AND an Oklahoma loss.
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The Big Ten play their championship in Indianapolis and the path to the two is a tad confusing. First, the simple part. In what could be the regular season game of the year, Ohio St 10-1 (5) travels to Michigan 10-1 (3) winner taking the East. The West could have a 4-way tie at 6-3 in the conference if Minnesota 7-4 (47) beats Wisconsin 8-3 (17), Iowa 9-2 (15) loses to Nebraska 3-8 (50), and Purdue 7-4 (24) beats Indiana 2-9 (35). In that scenario, Minnesota would win the division. Here’s why: Iowa and Purdue would be eliminated going 1-2 vs the tied teams while Minnesota and Wisconsin would be 2-1. Then, because the Gophers would have just beat the Badgers, they would win the head-to-head. If Wisconsin wins, they have the division since they beat Iowa. If Wisconsin loses AND Iowa wins, the Hawkeyes take the title. I cannot develop any scenario in which Purdue wins the division having losses to both Wisconsin and Minnesota.
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For Conference USA, the West and location are determined. The team with the better conference record hosts the championship and UTSA 11-0 (8) will host (even if they lose to North Texas 5-6 (148), they beat W Kentucky 7-4 (70). the reason that matters is the winner of W Kentucky and Marshall 7-4 (85) will win the East. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 in conference while the Thundering Herd is 5-2. If UTSA loses AND W Kentucky wins, both will be 7-1 in conference, but UTSA has the head-to-head advantage.
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Fresno St adds 3 to go up 26-9 with 10:19 in the 3rd.
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The MAC play their championship in Detroit and have a straightforward scenario. N Illinois 8-4 (38), despite losing Tuesday night to W Michigan 7-5 (82) has clinched the West due to the smallest of margins. They could end up in a tie with C Michigan 7-4 (84), but won the head-to-head matchup by a score of 39-38. The East will be determined by the winner of the Kent St 6-5 (96)/Miami OH 6-5 (102) game on Saturday. The other game Tuesday night saw Ball St 6-6 (123) beat Buffalo 4-8 (169) making them bowl eligible. While in the East only the 2 teams fighting for the division title are eligible, all 6 teams in the West are – Ball St, C Michigan, E Michigan 7-4 (87), N Illinois, Toledo 6-5 (105), and W Michigan – the only division that can boast that achievement. Note: If Florida St 5-6 (64) beats Florida 5-6 (76) AND Syracuse 5-6 (91) beats Pittsburgh 9-2 (21), the ACC Atlantic would join them.
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The Mountain West conference is another best-record-hosts situation. This makes things very cloudy out west. But first, let’s figure out WHO might play in the game. Let’s start with the West division: if San Diego St 10-1 (16) beats Boise St 7-4 (41) they win their division. If they lose AND Fresno St 8-3 (39) finishes the win against San Jose St 5-6 (149), currently leading 33-9 with 5:14 in the 3rd, then Fresno St wins the West. The Mountain division is a crazy town. 3 teams are 5-2 in the conference and tied for first: Air Force 8-3 (45), Boise St, and Utah St 8-3 (51). Air Force is playing UNLV 2-9 (104), and Utah St plays New Mexico 3-8 (144). If all three win OR all three lose, Air Force wins. Here’s why. Air Force beat Boise St, Boise St beat Utah St, and Utah St beat Air Force. Air Force and Boise St are 4-1 in the division and are playing cross-divisional teams. The best Utah St could be is 3-2 in the division so they would be eliminated leaving Air Force/Boise St head-to-head. Winner: Falcons. Same scenario if Air Force AND Boise St win AND Utah St loses. If Air Force AND Utah St win AND Boise St loses, Utah St wins the division. If Air Force loses AND Boise St AND Utah St wins, then Boise St wins. If San Diego St wins they will host. If they lose, the East champion will likely host.
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The road to Las Vegas for the Pac 12 a combination plate. The South is known: Utah 8-3 (23) has their ticket. The North is another jumble. Currently Oregon 9-2 (14) is 6-2 in the conference and will play Oregon St 7-4 (60) for rivalry week. The Beavers are 5-3 and could knot them up, but Washington St 6-5 (62) is also 5-3 and faces Washington 4-7 (114). If Oregon wins, they win the North. If Oregon St AND Washington St win, the Cougars take the title with the head-to-head victory over Oregon St. If Oregon St wins AND Washington St loses, the Beavers take the title due to the rivalry week win over the Ducks.
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The SEC is set and tickets punched to Atlanta: Georgia 11-0 (1) will face Alabama 10-1 (2) with Alabama’s only loss coming to Texas A&M 8-3 (22). If Alabama loses this week to Auburn 6-5 (37) AND Mississippi 9-2 (11) wins the Egg Bowl later tonight over Mississippi St 7-4 (33), the Crimson Tide and the Rebels would be tied, but Alabama won the head-to-head matchup.
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Finally, the Sun Belt championship is settled both in teams and location. The West champions, Louisiana 10-1 (18) will host App St 9-2 (25) next week. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 in conference and will face ULM 4-7 (125) while the Mountaineers are 6-1 and will face Ga Southern 3-8 (151). If the Cajuns lose AND App St wins, they both end up 7-1 in conference play, but Louisiana won the head-to-head matchup earlier in the year.
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Fresno St is holding on to the 33-9 edge at the 14:00 mark in the 4th keeping their Mountain West championship hopes alive. Last week was a good one for the GCR: 55-11 (.833) in the FBS and 94-31 (.752) overall. In upset games, I broke even with a 3-3 mark. That’s it for today. All the games are listed below with the 14 GCR upsets (disagree with Vegas favorites) in yellow. Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend. Thank you for reading and please share with others, G
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