Happy Friday, college football fans! If you are a Power 5 or Group of 5 fan, welcome to championship weekend. If you are an FCS fan, welcome to the second round of the playoffs and championship for the SWAC conference. If you, like me, are just a college football fan, welcome to both!
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There are only 19 games this week so consider all of them as featured. More on that in a moment. First let’s look at what’s at stake this weekend. In the FCS, the winner of the Florida A&M/Prairie View game, as champions of the SWAC get a Celebration Bowl date with the MEAC champion, Howard, in Atlanta on December 16th. In the 8 playoff games, the home teams are coming off bye weeks while the away teams won round 1 and are ready for more. Most of the games are somewhat regional, but a couple of teams (Delaware and Mercer in particular) are traveling a long way to colder climates. The winners make the quarterfinals next week.
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In the FBS, let’s break it up and look at the Group of 5 first. Obviously, the winner of each game gets the conference championship, but a few teams could get consideration for the Group of 5 spot in the New Years Six Bowls. For those that may not know, the NY6 games are for the best teams not in the 4-team playoff (all of this changes somewhat next year with a 12-team playoff, but I digress and get ahead of myself at the same time). The G5 is guaranteed one spot. The same committee that decides the playoff spots makes this decision so it’s not even, necessarily, the highest AP-ranked team, but usually is.
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In the American Conference, Tulane (11-1/18) hosts SMU (10-2/25). Both teams are 8-0 in the conference. If Tulane wins, they will probably get the NY6 spot. If SMU wins, there could be some controversy, especially if Liberty wins (see next paragraph). Does a 2-win SMU from the American (who used to clearly be the strongest G5 conference, but not this year, according to the data) get dibs over an undefeated Conference USA team. To add to the confusion, what if Toledo beats Miami OH and we have a 1-loss MAC team?
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Last year, Liberty (12-0/10) and New Mexico St (10-3/41) were both independents. This year, they are the best two teams in Conference USA. I love college football. With a win, Liberty will certainly create some controversy in best of the Group of 5 discussions and they’ll have a chance at going 14-0, a rare place for any team. New Mexico St, who most of the time is closer to 3-10 than 10-3, has a chance to spoil the party. The game is at Liberty so it’s an uphill battle. In week 3, the Aggies lost to the Flames at Liberty 33-17. It’s tough to beat someone twice (keep that in mind later on too). This game is also the first of the week and should start prior to the end of my ramblings, so I’ll keep you updated if warranted.
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The MAC, much-maligned and usually deserving, has a nearly unheard matchup of 10-win teams when Miami OH (10-2/27) and Toledo (11-1/19) meet in Detroit. They met in Miami on October 21st and Toledo edged the RedHawks 21-17. If Toledo wins and both Liberty and Tulane lose…
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Until November, it looked like Air Force was a guarantee to be in this game after a 8-0 start. But losing all 4 in the final month was probably not the plan which means Boise St (7-5/70) but 6-2 in the conference allows them to go to Vegas to play UNLV (9-3/43). Like New Mexico St, UNLV is not known for its football victories, so it’s great to see them in this game. The only impact to anything from this game is bragging rights and a conference trophy.
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And the Sun Belt. Look up the history of that conference sometime (or I could do an offseason post). They have done it well. Changing schools, taking good FCS promotions (Ga Southern, App St, James Madison) and really building up a solid conference. This year, the best team won’t be playing in the championship as James Madison has to sit out for another year, but we have the only team to beat them in a conference game, App St (8-4/58) heading to Troy (10-2/22). App St can play spoiler, but I think it would be hard for either of these teams to push Tulane, SMU, or Liberty in the post season status.
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In the FBS, there are four 12-0 teams. If Florida St, Georgia, Michigan, and Washington all win, there’s your playoff. If one or more fall, we have chaos. Let’s look a little deeper. In the ACC, FSU (12-0/3) takes on Louisville (10-2/13) who just lost to Kentucky and removed themselves from any playoff impacting role except spoiler. FSU with a back-up quarterback is out of the playoffs with a loss in almost every scenario I can come up with other than every 0- and 1-loss team loses (can’t happen because Ohio St isn’t playing this week).
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The Big Ten has the most lopsided matchup by Vegas odds (rightly so) and as good as Iowa’s (10-2/14) defense is, Michigan’s (12-0/1) is just as good and the Wolverines can, oh I don’t know, what’s the word, score touchdowns occasionally. Iowa would likely kill Michigan’s playoff chances, I think, with a win because the score would be 10-7 or something and one would have to question Michigan’s ability to play top-level competition the next week. There’s no way Iowa gets in even if they win 49-0 (more likely all 4 perfect teams lose), so spoiler role for them as well.
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New Mexico St and Liberty are tied 7-7 with 5:07 to go in the 1st.
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In the Pac 12, we have a rematch when Oregon (11-1/6) and Washington (12-0/5) replay their October 14th game in which the Huskies won at home 36-33. This time, it’s in Vegas and the stakes are even higher. Can WASH do it to the Ducks again? If Washington wins, they are in the playoff. If Oregon wins, they have a shot especially if Georgia and/or Texas loses.
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In the SEC, Georgia (12-0/2) is riding a 29-game winning streak when it butts heads with Alabama (11-1/8) who has never lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Something has to give here. If Alabama wins and Washington and FSU and Michigan all win, the SEC may not have a team in the playoffs. WHAT? Here’s how. A 1-loss Georgia would have lost to a 1-loss Alabama who, if the Longhorns win, would have lost to a 1-loss Texas. I think if Georgia is the only undefeated to lose, the race for the 1-loss team to be invited is between Texas and Oregon. Ohio St would have their argument, but they don’t get in over a 1-loss SEC champion when they didn’t make the Big Ten championship game. If Alabama wins and another perfect team gets an L, add them to the Ducks and Longhorns for the now 2 open spots.
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I’ve just described how Texas (11-1/7) gets in the playoffs, but they have to beat Oklahoma St (9-3/26) first. The Cowboys would like nothing more than to avoid a defecting team (Texas to the SEC next year) being crowned Big 12 champions.
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That’s it for all the games. By the way, New Mexico St is now up 14-7 with 14:53 in the first half.
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The table below is a little different. Instead of talking about the Offensive Efficiency Rating (how much a team scores compared to the opponent’s average opponent) and Defensive Efficiency Rating (how much opponents score based on how much they score against others) in the narratives, I added a couple of columns. After each team name, the column will look something like 47 v 25. The first number is the RANK of the OER, not the actual score. The second number is the opponent’s DER RANK, not the actual score. So if team A shows 47 v 25 against team B, you can read it as Team A has the 47th best relative scoring offense in the country and they will face the 25th best relative scoring defense in the country. Scoring may be a little difficult. Both sets of numbers read OER RANK of the team just listed v DER RANK of the opponent. Any neutral site games have an N following the conference name. Here are all 19 games. All times Eastern.
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| Time | Conference | Away | OER v DER | Home | OER v DER | Vegas | GCR | Cover? |
| FRI 7:00 | C-USA | New Mexico St (10-3/41) | 153 v 84 | Liberty (12-0/10) | 13 v 59 | LIB-10.5 | LIB 68% | LIB |
| FRI 8:00 | Pac 12 (N) | Oregon (11-1/6) | 8 v 51 | Washington (12-0/5) | 26 v 7 | ORE-9.5 | ORE 58% | WASH |
| 12:00 | MAC (N) | Miami OH (10-2/27) | 137 v 70 | Toledo (11-1/19) | 34 v 31 | TOL-7.0 | TOL 64% | TOL |
| 12:00 | Big 12 (N) | Oklahoma St (9-3/26) | 67 v 10 | Texas (11-1/7) | 27 v 90 | TEX-15.0 | TEX 71% | TEX |
| 12:00 | FCS Playoff | Richmond (9-3/148) | 132 v 20 | Albany (9-3/142) | 99 v 122 | NL | ALB 56% | NL |
| 12:00 | FCS Playoff | Youngstown St (8-4/162) | 139 v 23 | Villanova (9-2/132) | 72 v 97 | NL | VILL 63% | NL |
| 1:00 | FCS Playoff | Chattanooga (8-4/156) | 68 v 52 | Furman (9-2/135) | 104 v 121 | NL | FUR 59% | NL |
| 2:00 | FCS Playoff | Sacramento St (8-4/159) | 96 v 9 | South Dakota (9-2/134) | 148 v 143 | NL | SDAK 58% | NL |
| 2:00 | FCS Playoff | Mercer (9-3/147) | 139 v 2 | South Dakota St (11-0/90) | 7 v 99 | NL | SDKS 83% | NL |
| 3:00 | Mountain West | Boise St (7-5/70) | 54 v 107 | UNLV (9-3/43) | 30 v 66 | BOST-2.0 | UNLV 67% | UNLV |
| 3:00 | FCS Playoff | North Dakota St (9-3/139) | 17 v 32 | Montana St (8-3/149) | 19 v 28 | NL | NDST 54% | NL |
| 4:00 | SEC (N) | Georgia (12-0/2) | 9 v 12 | Alabama (11-1/8) | 15 v 8 | GEO-5.0 | GEO 57% | GEO |
| 4:00 | American | SMU (10-2/25) | 16 v 18 | Tulane (11-1/18) | 138 v 19 | TULN -3.0 | SMU 54% | SMU |
| 4:00 | Sun Belt | App St (8-4/58) | 33 v 11 | Troy (10-2/22) | 106 v 140 | TROY-5.5 | TROY 76% | TROY |
| 4:00 | SWAC | Prairie View (6-5/186) | 199 v 35 | Florida A&M (10-1/115) | 80 v 222 | NL | FLAM 94% | NL |
| 8:00 | ACC (N) | Louisville (10-2/13) | 42 v 14 | Florida St (12-0/3) | 12 v 44 | FSU-2.0 | FSU 62% | FSU |
| 8:00 | Big Ten (N) | Michigan (12-0/1) | 2 v 5 | Iowa (10-2/14) | 223 v 3 | MICH-22.0 | MICH 84% | MICH |
| 9:00 | FCS Playoff | Delaware (9-3/143) | 61 v 6 | Montana (10-1/122) | 84 v 61 | NL | MONT 64% | NL |
| 10:00 | FCS Playoff | S Illinois (8-4/155) | 119 v 63 | Idaho (8-3/150) | 64 v 13 | NL | IDA 61% | NL |
