Welcome back college football fans. Whether emotion you may or may not have about the first 12-team playoff selection, there are still games to be played: 18 of them this weekend to be exact. Let’s walk through the conference championship games:
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Tonight (Friday) at 7:00 (all times Eastern) we have W Kentucky (8-4/67) at Jacksonville St (8-4/76) for the Conference USA title. Last week, these two met up in Bowling Green and the Hilltoppers topped the Gamecocks 19-17 for the only conference loss for JAX this season. They head south to Alabama. It’s hard to beat the same team two weeks in a row. Vegas has JAX-4.5 and the GCR agrees 55% and the Gamecocks to cover at home.
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Later, at 8:00, we’ll see some chilly weather as Army (10-1/16) hosts Tulane (9-3/35) for the American Conference title. Army’s only loss was to Notre Dame (11-1/4) while Tulane lost to Kansas St (8-4/24), Oklahoma (6-6/42), and Memphis (10-2/29). Vegas likes Tulane-5.0 in this one on the road, but the GCR has had faith in Army all season long: Army 57% and to cover. As a reminder this is Army’s first season in the conference.
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Also, at 8:00, the Mountain West will be decided on the blue field when UNLV (10-2/25) invades Boise St (11-1/13). Boise St won earlier in the season at UNLV 29-24 and will have the home field advantage. Vegas thinks so with BOST-4.5 and the GCR agrees 55% and to cover.
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Saturday gives us our first neutral site game, at noon, when Ohio (9-3/64) and Miami OH (8-4/71) face off in Detroit. MIAO had the advantage 30-20 at home earlier in the year. Will that influence this game? Vegas thinks so with MIAO-2.0, and the GCR sees a very close game but gives the edge to Ohio 51% and to cover.
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Competing in the noon slot, the Big 12 places Iowa St (10-2/12) and new to the conference Arizona St (10-2/14) to fight it out in Arlington. These teams have not faced off. IAST’s losses to Kansas (5-7/38) during the Jayhawks historic run and Texas Tech (8-4/33) in successive weeks did not stop them from winning 10 or more in a season for the first time in school history. AZST also lost to Texas Tech but also fell to Cincinnati (5-7/54) so there is a strong similarity between the two teams. Vegas has AZST-1.5 in the smallest margin this weekend for any team. In a weird GCR calculation, IAST wins by a fraction at 50%. I have to call Iowa St to win and cover and throw another monkey wrench in the playoff picture.
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The only FCS conference that has a championship game is the SWAC and the winner of the game faces the winner of the MEAC conference (South Carolina St) in the annual Celebration Bowl. This year’s game has Jackson St (10-2/129) hosting Southern (8-4/167). Earlier in the season, JACK won 33-15 and Vegas likes that result with JACK-13.5. The GCR agrees 64% and to cover.
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In the lone 4:00 spot, in Atlanta, Georgia (10-2/8) will take on Texas (11-1/2) for the SEC title. The Longhorns’ only blemish this season was a home loss to the Bulldogs 30-15. This should be a close on as Vegas has Texas-2.5 getting revenge and the GCR agreeing 52% and to cover.
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At 7:30, the Sun Belt turns to Lafayette, Louisiana as the Eastern Champion Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3/56) take on the Western Champion Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-2/34) in the only FBS conference holding on to divisions. These teams did not play each other but it will be exciting. In the biggest spread of the FBS conference championships, Vegas has LAU-6.0 and the GCR agrees 56% and to cover.
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In the first 8:00 game, Clemson (9-3/21) backed into Charlotte’s ACC final with SMU (11-1/5). These teams did not face each other and it’s the Tigers only chance to make the playoffs. Vegas doesn’t think they will SMU-2.5 and the GCR agrees 53% and to cover.
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The last conference championship is the Big Ten, in Indianapolis, between Penn St (11-1/6) and Oregon (12-0/1). Penn St’s only loss was to Ohio St (10-2/7) who lost to Oregon by a single point. Vegas has Oregon-3.5 winning yet another close game and the GCR agrees 54% and to cover.
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There are 8 FCS playoff games this weekend as well. I tune into as many of these as I can and encourage you to do so as well. In all cases the higher seeded team hosts.
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Without further ado, here are all 18 games. After this week, the last GCR ranking posted until after we have both an FCS and FBS champion will happen on Sunday. I’ll keep updating the numbers each day of the bowl/playoff season and will use those updates for predictions. Thank you for reading and, especially, sharing with others, G.
| Time | Away Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Home Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| Conference Championship Games | |||||||
| FRI 7:00 | W Kentucky (8-4/67) | USA (6-2) | Jackson-ville St (8-4/76) | USA (7-1) | JAX-4.5 | JAX 55% | JAX |
| FRI 8:00 | Tulane (9-3/35) | AAC (7-1) | Army (10-1/16) | AAC (8-0) | TULN-5.0 | ARMY 57% | ARMY |
| FRI 8:00 | UNLV (10-2/25) | MWC (6-1) | Boise St (11-1/13) | MWC (7-0) | BOST-4.5 | BOST 55% | BOST |
| 12:00 | Ohio (9-3/64) – N | MAC (7-1) | Miami OH (8-4/71) – N | MAC (7-1) | MIAO-2.0 | OHIO 51% | OHIO |
| 12:00 | Iowa St (10-2/12) – N | B12 (7-2) | Arizona St (10-2/14) – N | B12 (7-2) | AZST-1.5 | IAST 50% | IAST |
| 2:00 | Southern (8-4/167) | SWAC (7-1) | Jackson St (10-2/129) | SWAC (9-0) | JACK-13.5 | JACK 64% | JACK |
| 4:00 | Georgia (10-2/8) – N | SEC (6-2) | Texas (11-1/2) – N | SEC (7-1) | TEX-2.5 | TEX 52% | TEX |
| 7:30 | Marshall (9-3/56) | SUN (7-1) | Louisiana (10-2/34) | SUN (7-1) | LAU-6.0 | LAU 56% | LAU |
| 8:00 | Clemson (9-3/21) – N | ACC (7-1) | SMU (11-1/5) – N | ACC (8-0) | SMU-2.5 | SMU 53% | SMU |
| 8:00 | Penn St (11-1/6) – N | B10 (8-1) | Oregon (12-0/1) – N | B10 (9-0) | ORE-3.5 | ORE 54% | ORE |
| FCS Playoff Games | |||||||
| 2:00 | Rhode Island (11-2/ 141) | CAA (7-1) | Mercer (10-2/130) | SoCon (7-1) | MERC-10.0 | MERC 59% | RISL |
| 2:00 | Villanova (10-3/155) | CAA (6-2) | Incarnate Word (10-2/ 133) | SLAN (7-0) | IW-9.5 | IW 64% | IW |
| 2:00 | Montana (9-4/159) | SKY (6-2) | South Dakota St (9-2/131) | MVC (7-1) | SDKS-21.0 | SDKS 68% | MONT |
| 3:00 | Tennessee Martin (9-4/153) | BSOV (6-2) | Montana St (12-0/93) | SKY (8-0) | MTST-17.5 | MTST 72% | MTST |
| 3:00 | Tarleton (10-3/157) | UAC (6-2) | South Dakota (9-2/131) | MVC (7-1) | SDAK-16.5 | SDAK 66% | TARL |
| 3:00 | Abilene Christian (9-4/160) | UAC (7-1) | North Dakota St (10-2/ 147) | MVC (7-1) | NDST-24.0 | 61 | ABCH |
| 4:00 | Illinois St (10-3/ 146) | MVC (6-2) | UC Davis (10-2/140) | SKY (7-1) | UCD-9.0 | UCD 58% | ILST |
| 9:00 | Lehigh (9-3/150) | PAT (5-1) | Idaho (9-3/149) | SKY (6-2) | IDA-14.5 | LEH 53% | LEH |
