Welcome back sports fans to the last full edition of the Expectation for this season. Next week is championship week along with the second round of the FCS playoffs. After that, starting with Army/Navy and throughout the playoffs until the championship games in January, an Expectation will publish every day there is a game. Yes, I’m an idiot, but that is the tradition now.
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This week, there are just 3 regular season FCS games, all involving the SWAC. These 5 teams (one game is against non-Division I Tuskegee) always play this week. Yet another tradition. There are also 8 FCS playoff games this week. There are also 8 bye teams who will host the winners of this week’s games next Saturday. In a first ever, the Ivy League has decided to participate in the FCS playoffs. Harvard was undefeated before the Yale game, and both got bids – Yale as Ivy champion and Harvard at large.
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There was a little chaos in the GCR suite of offices (aka my living room and the loft upstairs) which involved waiting, literally, for hours to talk to an IRS representative. All of that made us a little late for tonight and the first game has already begun. At halftime Bowling Green (3-8/128) is leading UMASS (0-11/185) 28-14. Later tonight, W Michigan (7-4/64) invades E Michigan (4-7/115) in a game with MAC championship game implications. More on that in a moment.
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Since October 2nd, there has just been a single day, October 7th during which we had no Division I or NFL game. Tonight ends that streak. There are no Wednesday games this week. 54 days out of the last 55, and it has been wonderful. Please call the withdrawal hot line at 1-800-WHEREISFOOTBALL if you need counseling. A special GCR thank you to Conference USA and the MAC for mid-week football.
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Not only is this rivalry week for the FBS, but there are championship game participants being decided in every conference. Here’s the breakdown.
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In the American Conference, there is a 3-way tie for first at 6-1 in conference play with Tulane (faces Charlotte this week), North Texas (Temple), and Navy (Memphis). Oddly the only time these teams played each other this season, North Texas beat Navy. If all three teams win, North Texas and Tulane are in. If 2 teams win, they are in. If all 3 teams lose AND East Carolina and South Florida win, chaos ensues. There could be a 5-way tie. There are only 3 games to add with Tulane beating East Carolina along with South Florida losing to Navy but beating North Texas. By our reckoning, in a 5-way tie, Tulane is in with a deep tie breaker scenario between Navy, North Texas, and South Florida. We do not see a way for East Carolina to make the championship.
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The ACC is not any clearer. Virginia (Virginia Tech), Pittsburgh (Miami FL), and SMU (California) are all tied at 6-1. If all three win, Virginia and Pittsburgh will fight for the title. If two of them win, those two will meet in Charlotte. Georgia Tech is 6-2 and completed their ACC schedule. If more than one of the top 3 lose AND Miami FL wins (against Pittsburgh) AND Duke wins, we could have a 5-way tie for second or a 6-way tie for first (if all 3 lose). In that scenario Virginia looks to be in with deeper tie breaker scenarios for the others. Except Duke, we don’t see any scenario where Duke is in the championship game.
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The Big 12 is down to 3 teams. BYU (UCF) and Texas Tech (West Virginia) are both 7-1. If they both win, they are in. If one loses, Arizona St and Utah are both 6-2, but we do not see a scenario where Utah gets in (they lost to both BYU and Texas Tech). Arizona St beat Texas Tech so they are in if TXTC loses.
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The Big Ten has two undefeated teams, Ohio St (Michigan) and Indiana (Purdue). Wins for both make the Big Ten championship 12-0 vs 12-0. If Ohio St loses, they would be tied with Michigan (7-1 in conference), and the Wolverines would be in the playoffs. Oregon is also 7-1 but lost to Indiana so we do not see a way for them to be in the championship game. That means Indiana has clinched, we think.
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Conference USA has a 3-way tie for first at 6-1 with Jacksonville St, Kennesaw St (Liberty), and W Kentucky. JXST and WKY play this weekend, so the winner is in. Missouri St is 5-2, but in their first year in the conference and in the FBS so they are not eligible. Kennesaw St lost to W Kentucky, so if KNST and WKY lose, the Hilltoppers of W Kentucky are in. If W Kentucky beats Jacksonville St, the Owls are in.
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The MAC leader at 6-1 Is W Michigan (E Michigan) playing tonight at 7:30. If WMI wins, they are in the championship game. If they lose, there could be a 5-way tie for first as C Michigan, Miami OH, Ohio, and Toledo are all 5-2. We do not see a scenario, however, in which Miami OH makes the title game. W Michigan holds the tie breaker over CMI, Ohio, and Toledo, so we do not see a way that they do not make the game. Deeper tie breaker scenarios will have to decide 2nd although Ohio owns the spot going into the games this weekend.
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The Mountain West is led by San Diego St (New Mexico) at 6-1. If they win, they are in. There is a 3-way tie for 2nd at 5-2 with Boise St (Utah St) who beat SDST, New Mexico who are playing San Diego St, and UNLV (Nevada) who lost to New Mexico and Boise St. UNLV only gets in with a win and losses by BOST and NMEX. In a 4-way tie, or a 3-way tie assuming UNLV loses, New Mexico and Boise St will represent.
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The SEC is led by Texas A&M (Texas) at 7-0. They have to win to head to Atlanta. Georgia is finished with their conference slate at 7-1. Alabama (Auburn) and Mississippi (Mississippi St) are both 6-1. Alabama beat Georgia who beat Mississippi, so we do not see a scenario where the Rebels are in. Georgia is in if Alabama loses. Alabama is in with a win. If both win AND Texas A&M loses, Georgia and Alabama will meet for the second time this season.
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The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference that still has divisions. The East is clinched by James Madison at 7-0 in conference play. The West has a two-way tie for first at 5-2 between Southern Miss and Troy. They happen to be playing this weekend, so the winner will face the Dukes.
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I skipped the 2-team Pac 12 because there is no championship game. Oregon St and Washington St are playing for the second time this season. ORST won the first game.
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Bowling Green has added a TD to take a 35-14 lead as they move to the final quarter.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and, especially, for sharing with others. With no further ado, we proudly present to you the games of week 14!
| Time (Eastern) | Away Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Home Team (Record/ GCR Rank) | Conf (Rec) | Vegas | GCR Win (nearest .5%) | GCR Cover | TV |
| ACC (17 teams) – Core 4 | ||||||||
| FRI 3:30 | Georgia (10-1/13) Neutral Site | SEC (7-1) | Georgia Tech (9-2/32) Neutral Site | ACC (6-2) | GEO-14.5 | GEO 58.5% | GT | ABC |
| 12:00 | Kentucky (5-6/74) | SEC (2-6) | Louisville (7-4/30) | ACC (4-4) | LOU-3.5 | LOU 76.0% | LOU | ACCN |
| 12:00 | Clemson (6-5/52) | ACC (4-4) | South Carolina (4-7/83) | SEC (1-7) | SCAR-2.5 | CLEM 68.0% | CLEM | SECN |
| 12:00 | Miami FL (9-2/11) | ACC (5-2) | Pittsburgh (8-3/24) | ACC (6-1) | MIAF-6.5 | MIAF 55.5% | PITT | ABC |
| 3:00 | Boston College (1-10/130) | ACC (0-7) | Syracuse (3-8/98) | ACC (1-6) | BC-3.5 | SYR 63.0% | SYR | The CW |
| 3:30 | Wake Forest (8-3/26) | ACC (4-3) | Duke (6-5/41) | ACC (5-2) | DUKE-1.5 | WAKE 58% | WAKE | ACCN |
| 4:30 | Florida St (5-6/57) | ACC (2-6) | Florida (3-8/99) | SEC (2-6) | FLA-1.5 | FSU 68.0% | FSU | ESPN2 |
| 7:00 | Virginia Tech (3-8/102) | ACC (2-5) | Virginia (9-2/12) | ACC (6-2) | VIR-9.5 | VIR 94.5% | VIR | ESPN |
| 7:30 | North Carolina (4-7/103) | ACC (2-5) | NC St (6-5/36) | ACC (4-4) | NCST-7.5 | NCST 65.5% | NCST | ACCN |
| 8:00 | SMU (8-3/19) | ACC (6-1) | California (6-5/84) | ACC (3-4) | SMU-13.5 | SMU 66.5% | SMU | ESPN2 |
| 10:30 | Notre Dame (9-2/6) | IND (0-0) | Stanford (4-7/78) | ACC (3-5) | ND-32.5 | ND 86.5% | ND | ESPN |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4 | ||||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Utah (9-2/7) | B12 (6-2) | Kansas (5-6/66) | B12 (3-5) | UTAH-12.5 | UTAH 77.5% | UTAH | ESPN |
| FRI 9:00 | Arizona (8-3/22) | B12 (6-3) | Arizona St (8-3/18) | B12 (6-2) | ARIZ-1.5 | ARIZ 51.0% | AZST | Fox |
| 12:00 | Iowa St (7-4/29) | B12 (4-4) | Oklahoma St (1-10/133) | B12 (0-8) | IAST-14.5 | IAST 88.0% | IAST | ESPNU |
| 12:00 | Colorado (3-8/93) | B12 (1-7) | Kansas St (5-6/49) | B12 (4-5) | KSST-16.5 | KSST 71.0% | KSST | FS1 |
| 12:00 | Texas Tech (10-1/3) | B12 (7-1) | West Virginia (4-7/79) | B12 (2-6) | TXTC-24.5 | TXTC 93.5% | TXTC | ESPN |
| 12:00 | Houston (8-3/35) | B12 (5-3) | Baylor (5-6/71) | B12 (3-5) | BAY-2.5 | HOU 65.0% | HOU | TNT |
| 1:00 | UCF (5-6/87) | B12 (2-6) | BYU (10-1/4) | B12 (7-1) | BYU-17.5 | BYU 84.5% | BYU | ESPN2 |
| 3:30 | Cincinnati (7-4/38) | B12 (5-3) | TCU (7-4/31) | B12 (4-4) | TCU-4.5 | TCU 54.0% | CIN | Fox |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4 | ||||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Iowa (7-4/33) | B10 (5-3) | Nebraska (7-4/48) | B10 (4-4) | IOWA-6.5 | IOWA 51.5% | NEB | CBS |
| FRI 7:30 | Indiana (11-0/2) | B10 (8-0) | Purdue (2-9/105) | B10 (0-8) | IND-28.5 | IND 99.9% | IND | NBC |
| 12:00 | Ohio St (11-0/1) | B10 (8-0) | Michigan (9-2/10) | B10 (7-1) | OHST-9.5 | OHST 65.0% | OHST | Fox |
| 3:30 | Wisconsin (4-7/60) | B10 (2-6) | Minnesota (6-5/61) | B10 (4-4) | MINN-1.5 | MINN 67.5% | MINN | FS1 |
| 3:30 | Oregon (10-1/5) | B10 (7-1) | Washington (8-3/21) | B10 (5-3) | ORE-6.5 | ORE 59.5% | ORE | CBS |
| 3:30 | Penn St (5-6/40) | B10 (2-6) | Rutgers (5-6/67) | B10 (2-6) | PSU-13.5 | PSU 55.5% | RUTG | BTN |
| 7:00 | Maryland (4-7/97) Neutral Site | B10 (1-7) | Michigan St (3-8/104) Neutral Site | B10 (0-8) | MIST-3.5 | MARY 57.5% | MARY | FS1 |
| 7:30 | Northwestern (6-5/58) | B10 (4-4) | Illinois (7-4/28) | B10 (4-4) | ILL-6.5 | ILL 61.5% | ILL | Fox |
| 7:30 | UCLA (3-8/86) | B10 (3-5) | Southern Cal (8-3/9) | B10 (6-2) | SCAL-21.5 | SCAL 90.5% | SCAL | NBC |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| SEC (16 teams) – Core 4 | ||||||||
| FRI 12:00 | Mississippi (10-1/25) | SEC (6-1) | Mississippi St (5-6/82) | SEC (1-6) | MISS-7.5 | MISS 68.5% | MISS | ABC |
| FRI 7:30 | Texas A&M (11-0/15) | SEC (7-0) | Texas (8-3/37) | SEC (5-2) | TAM-2.5 | TAM 58.5% | TAM | ABC |
| 3:30 | LSU (7-4/50) | SEC (3-4) | Oklahoma (9-2/16) | SEC (5-2) | OKLA-10.5 | OKLA 64.0% | OKLA | ABC |
| 3:30 | Missouri (7-4/51) | SEC (3-4) | Arkansas (2-9/106) | SEC (0-7) | MIZZ-2.5 | MIZZ 67.0% | MIZZ | SECN |
| 3:30 | Vanderbilt (9-2/27) | SEC (5-2) | Tennessee (8-3/43) | SEC (4-3) | TENN-2.5 | VAND 51.5% | VAND | ESPN |
| 7:30 | Alabama (9-2/20) | SEC (6-1) | Auburn (5-6/63) | SEC (1-6) | ALA-6.5 | ALA 61.5% | ALA | ABC |
| OOC – Florida (Florida St-ACC), Georgia (vs Georgia Tech-ACC), Kentucky (@Louisville-ACC), South Carolina (Clemson-ACC) | ||||||||
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| THU 7:30 | Navy (8-2/55) | AAC (6-1) | Memphis (8-3/42) | AAC (4-3) | MEM-5.5 | MEM 57.5% | MEM | ESPN |
| FRI 3:30 | Temple (5-6/107) | AAC (3-4) | North Texas (10-1/17) | AAC (6-1) | NTEX-20.5 | NTEX 78.5% | NTEX | ESPN |
| 12:00 | East Carolina (7-4/53) | AAC (5-2) | FAU (4-7/111) | AAC (3-4) | ECAR-6.5 | ECAR 62.0% | ECAR | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | UAB (3-8/118) | AAC (1-6) | Tulsa (4-7/116) | AAC (1-6) | TULS-9.5 | TULS 60.5% | TULS | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Army (5-5/94) | AAC (3-4) | UTSA (6-5/70) | AAC (4-3) | UTSA-7.5 | UTSA 55.0% | ARMY | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Rice (5-6/109) | AAC (2-5) | South Florida (8-3/34) | AAC (5-2) | SFLA-27.5 | SFLA 74.5% | RICE | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | Charlotte (1-10/145) | AAC (0-7) | Tulane (9-2/23) | AAC (6-1) | TULN-30.5 | TULN 92.5% | TULN | ESPNU |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| 1:00 | FIU (6-5/96) | USA (4-3) | Sam Houston (2-9/140) | USA (1-6) | FIU-10.5 | FIU 63.5% | FIU | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | UTEP (2-9/138) | USA (1-6) | Delaware (5-6/108) | USA (3-4) | DEL-4.5 | DEL 63.0% | DEL | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | LA Tech(6-5/85) | USA (4-3) | Missouri St (7-4/89) | USA (5-2) | MOST-2.5 | LATC 51.0% | LATC | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | W Kentucky (8-3/75) | USA (6-1) | Jacksonville St (7-4/100) | USA (6-1) | WKY-2.5 | WKY 51.0% | WKY | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Middle Tennessee (2-9/139) | USA (1-6) | New Mexico St (4-7/114) | USA (2-5) | NMST-4.5 | NMST 62.0% | NMST | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Kennesaw St (8-3/47) | USA (6-1) | Liberty (4-7/110) | USA (3-4) | KNST-2.5 | KNST 63.0% | KNST | CBS Sports |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5 | ||||||||
| OOC – Notre Dame (@Stanford-ACC) | ||||||||
| Idle – UCONN (9-3/69) | ||||||||
| MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| TUE 4:30 | Bowling Green (3-8/128) | MAC (1-6) | UMASS (0-11/185) | MAC (0-7) | BG-15.5 | BG 61.5% | UMAS | ESPNU |
| TUE 7:30 | W Michigan (7-4/64) | MAC (6-1) | E Michigan (4-7/115) | MAC (3-4) | WMI-7.5 | WMI 58.0% | WMI | ESPN2 |
| FRI 12:00 | Ohio (7-4/81) | MAC (5-2) | Buffalo (5-6/113) | MAC (4-3) | OHIO-6.5 | OHIO 57.0% | OHIO | ESPNU |
| FRI 12:00 | Kent St (4-7/120) | MAC (3-4) | N Illinois (3-8/129) | MAC (2-5) | NILL-4.5 | KTST 51.5% | KTST | CBS Sports |
| 12:00 | Ball St (4-7/125) | MAC (3-4) | Miami OH (6-5/90) | MAC (5-2) | MIAO-17.5 | MIAO 64.5% | BLST | CBS Sports |
| 12:00 | Toledo (7-4/62) | MAC (5-2) | C Michigan (7-4/88) | MAC (5-2) | TOL-10.5 | TOL 51.0% | CMI | ESPN+ |
| Idle – Akron (5-7/126) | ||||||||
| Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| FRI 3:00 | Air Force (3-8/112) | MWC (2-5) | Colorado St (2-9/127) | MWC (1-6) | AF-1.5 | AF 53.5% | AF | FS1 |
| FRI 3:30 | San Diego St (9-2/39) | MWC (6-1) | New Mexico (8-3/59) | MWC (5-2) | SDST-1.5 | SDST 52.5% | SDST | CBS Sports |
| FRI 4:00 | Boise St (7-4/44) | MWC (5-2) | Utah St (6-5/73) | MWC (4-3) | BOST-3.5 | BOST 52.0% | UTST | CBS |
| 9:00 | UNLV (9-2/45) | MWC (5-2) | Nevada (3-8/124) | MWC (2-5) | UNLV-8.5 | UNLV 73.0% | UNLV | CBS Sports |
| 10:30 | Fresno St (7-4/91) | MWC (4-3) | San Jose St (3-8/122) | MWC (2-5) | FRST-2.5 | FRST 62.5% | FRST | FS1 |
| 11:00 | Wyoming (4-7/123) | MWC (2-5) | Hawaii (7-4/77) | MWC (4-3) | HAW-7.5 | HAW 67.5% | HAW | MWN |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| 6:30 | Oregon St (2-9/117) | PAC (1-0) | Washington St (5-6/46) | PAC (0-1) | WAST-13.5 | WAST 74.5% | WAST | The CW |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5 | ||||||||
| 1:30 | Ga Southern (5-6/76) | SUN (3-4) | Marshall (5-6/68) | SUN (3-4) | MARS-9.5 | MARS 59.0% | GASO | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Georgia St (1-10/132) | SUN (0-7) | Old Dominion (8-3/14) | SUN (5-2) | OD-26.5 | OD 99.9% | OD | ESPN+ |
| 2:30 | Arkansas St (5-6/95) | SUN (4-3) | App St (5-6/92) | SUN (2-5) | APST-2.5 | APST 54.0% | APST | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | South Alabama (4-7/101) | SUN (3-4) | Texas St (5-6/65) | SUN (2-5) | TXST-9.5 | TXST 60.0% | TXST | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | ULM (3-8/121) | SUN (1-6) | Louisiana (5-6/80) | SUN (4-3) | LAU-8.5 | LAU 69.5% | LAU | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Troy (7-4/56) | SUN (5-2) | Southern Miss (7-4/54) | SUN (5-2) | SMIS-6.5 | SMIS 53.0% | TROY | ESPN+ |
| 3:45 | James Madison (10-1/8) | SUN (7-0) | Coastal Car (6-5/72) | SUN (5-2) | JMU-21.5 | JMU 76.0% | JMU | ESPNU |
| Idle – none | ||||||||
| Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| no games | ||||||||
| Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| 1:00 | North Dakota (7-5/142) Playoff Game | MVFC (5-3) | Tennessee Tech (11-1/152) Playoff Game | BSOV (8-0) | — | TNTC 59% | — | ESPN+ |
| Coastal (14 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| 12:00 | Harvard (9-1/134) Playoff Game | Ivy (6-1) | Villanova (9-2/149) Playoff Game | CAA (7-1) | — | HARV 52% | — | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | C Connecticut (8-4/180) Playoff Game | NEC (6-1) | Rhode Island (10-2/143) Playoff Game | CAA (8-0) | — | RISL 67% | — | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | New Hampshire (8-4/154) Playoff Game | CAA (6-2) | South Dakota St (8-4/157) Playoff Game | MVFC (4-4) | — | NHAM 55% | — | ESPN+ |
| FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| no games | ||||||||
| Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| 12:00 | Yale (8-2/137) Playoff Game | IVY (6-1) | Youngstown St (8-4/172) Playoff Game | MVFC (5-3) | — | YALE 53% | — | ESPN+ |
| OOC – Harvard (@Villanova-CAA) | ||||||||
| MEAC (6 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| no games | ||||||||
| Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| 1:00 | Illinois St (8-4/168) Playoff Game | MVFC (5-3) | Southeastern (9-3/167) Playoff Game | SLAN (7-1) | — | SELA 60% | — | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Drake (8-3/158) Playoff Game | PFL (7-1) | South Dakota (8-4/177) Playoff Game | MVFC (6-2) | — | DRAK 54% | — | ESPN+ |
| OOC – North Dakota (@Tennessee Tech-BSOV), South Dakota St (New Hampshire-CAA), Youngstown St (Yale-IVY) | ||||||||
| Northeast (9 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| OOC – C Connecticut (@Rhode Island-CAA) | ||||||||
| Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| no games | ||||||||
| Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| OOC – Drake (@South Dakota St) | ||||||||
| SoCon (9 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| no games | ||||||||
| Southland (10 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| 1:00 | Lamar (8-4/173) Playoff Game | SLAN (5-3) | Abilene Chr (8-4/160) Playoff Game | UAC (7-1) | — | LAM 58% | — | ESPN+ |
| OOC – Southeastern (Illinois St-MVC) | ||||||||
| SWAC (12 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| THU 3:00 | Tuskegee (NA) | NA | Alabama St (9-2/146) | SWAC (8-1) | — | — | — | SWAC TV |
| 2:00 | Grambling St (7-4/199) Neutral Site | SWAC (4-3) | Southern (1-10/256) Neutral Site | SWAC (1-8) | — | GRAM 59% | — | SWAC TV |
| 3:00 | Florida A&M (5-6/241) | SWAC (4-3) | Mississippi Valley (1-10/247) | SWAC (0-8) | — | FLAM 54% | — | SWAC TV |
| UAC (9 teams) – FCS | ||||||||
| OOC – Abilene Chr (Lamar-SLAN) | ||||||||
