G’s Expectation or Who Wins Week 10?

Happy Tuesday and welcome to MACNation 2022! This is the time of year the MAC conference entertains us on Tuesdays and Wednesdays which not only gives us some level of football every day of the week, but also allows these athletes to shine without a lot of competition. Tonight, Ball St (4-4/102) and Kent St (3-5/92) are playing on ESPNU (KTST is leading 6-0 with 5:06 to play in the first). Buffalo (5-3/57) invades Ohio (5-3/86) at 7:30 (all times Eastern) on ESPN2. FYI, Kent St just scored and is up 13-0 with 4:25 in the opening frame. The GCR picked BLST so here’s hoping.

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Our FCS game of the week is Sacramento St (8-0/104) at Weber St (7-1/126) in a very competitive Big Sky conference game. It should be a close one with the GCR selecting SAC 57.4% to win. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:00. Our FBS game of the week is Tennessee (8-0/4) at Georgia (8-0/1). The winner will be the last SEC undefeated team. Vegas opened GEO -9.0 but has dropped to 8.0. The GCR has the Bulldogs remaining top dog 68.6% of the time and they should cover.

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Last week started slowly, if you were playing along with the GCR predictions, but we ended…ok. Straight up 70-36 (.660) including a nice 35-13 (.729) in the FBS. That gives us a season long 508-232 (.686) pace. That puts us 10 games under the desired .700. Against the spread, the GCR started slowly at just 15-15 (.500), but closed very nicely at a new best 27-19 (.587) compared to a favorites-only record of 20-26 (.435). The favorites won 15 of the first 30 games as well, so the night wasn’t as forgiving for them. Since I started picking the spread, the favorites have a combined 88-118 (.427) record, meaning if you bet on all the games I listed and always selected the favored team to win, you’d have been wrong 57.3% of the time. The GCR in the same time frame now stands at 113-93 (.549), 0.3 games behind the magic 55%. Some deeper analysis shows that GCR was 22-4 (.846) straight up while the Group of 5 was 13-9 (.591). Just to add to the complexity, ATS the GCR was just 12-13 (.480) for the Power 5 and 15-6 (.721) for the Group of 5. If you can explain it, you got me beat. I’ll keep working on the predictors.

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Kent St is still leading 13-0 over Ball St with 14:04 in the half while Ohio has jumped to 7-0 lead over Buffalo with 9:19 to go in the first.

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Thanks for reading and please send me comments, improvement ideas, and questions. Here are all the games – I hope you have a fun and enjoyable week of college football, G

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TimeAwayConf RecHomeConf RecVegasGCRTo Cover
   Atlantic Coast ConferencePower 5   
FRIDuke (5-3/49)ACC (2-2)Boston College (2-6/87)ACC (1-4)DUKE -9.5DUKE 69.5%DUKE
12:00UNC (7-1/13)ACC (4-0)Virginia (3-5/67)ACC (1-4)UNC -7.5UNC 92.6%UNC
12:30Georgia Tech (3-5/62)ACC (2-3)Virginia Tech (2-6/100)ACC (1-4)VT -3.0GT 56.3%GT
3:30Syracuse (6-2/17)ACC (3-1)Pittsburgh (4-4/64)ACC (1-3)PITT -3.5SYR -76.1%SYR
7:30Clemson (8-0/5)ACC (6-0)Notre Dame (5-3/29)IND (1-0)CLEM -3.5CLEM 99.9%CLEM
7:30James Madison (5-2/55)SUN (3-2)Louisville (5-3/40)ACC (3-3)LOU -7.5JMU 56.7%JMU
7:30Florida St (5-3/30)ACC (3-3)Miami FL (4-4/80)ACC (2-2)FSU -7.5FSU 63.1%FSU
8:00Wake Forest (6-2/22)ACC (2-2)NC St (6-2/18)ACC (2-2)WF -4.5NCST 55.8%NCST
   Big 12 ConferencePower 5   
12:00Texas Tech (4-4/61)B12 (2-3)TCU (8-0/6)B12 (5-0)TCU -9.5TCU 99.9%TCU
3:00Baylor (5-3/51)B12 (3-2)Oklahoma (5-3/34)B12 (2-3)OKLA -3.0BAY 56.3%BAY
3:30Oklahoma St (6-2/20)B12 (3-2)Kansas (5-3/37)B12 (2-3)OKST -2.5OKST -65.4%OKST
3:30West Virginia (3-5/79)B12 (1-4)Iowa St (3-5/69)B12 (0-5)IAST -7.0IAST 55.2%WVU
7:00Texas (5-3/32)B12 (3-2)Kansas St (6-2/14)B12 (4-1)TEX -2.5KSST 70.1%KSST
    Big Ten ConferencePower 5   
12:00Ohio St (8-0/2)B1G (5-0)Northwestern (1-7/84)B1G (1-4)OHST -38.0OHST 99.9%OHST
12:00Minnesota (5-3/41)B1G (2-3)Nebraska (3-5/85)B1G (2-3)MINN -16.0MINN 69.2%NEB
12:00Iowa (4-4/46)B1G (2-3)Purdue (5-3/36)B1G (3-2)PUR -4.5PUR 64.7%PUR
3:30Michigan St (3-5/52)B1G (1-4)Illinois (7-1/8)B1G (4-1)ILL -16.0ILL 99.9%ILL
3:30Penn St (6-2/15)B1G (3-2)Indiana (3-5/63)B1G (1-4)PSU -14.0PSU 79.8%PSU
7:30Michigan (8-0/3)B1G (5-0)Rutgers (4-4/88)B1G (1-4)MICH -26.0MICH 99.9%MICH
   Pac 12 ConferencePower 5   
FRIOregon St (6-2/23)P12 (3-2)Washington (6-2/26)P12 (3-2)WASH -3.5ORST 55.5%ORST
3:30Oregon (7-1/12)P12 (5-0)Colorado (1-7/72)P12 (1-4)ORE -36.5ORE 95.8%COL
3:30Washington St (4-4/56)P12 (1-4)Stanford (3-5/39)P12 (1-5)WAST -4.5WAST 58.5%WAST
7:30Arizona (3-5/76)P12 (1-4)Utah (6-2/21)P12 (4-1)UTAH -16.5UTAH 83.4%UTAH
9:30UCLA (7-1/11)P12 (4-1)Arizona St (3-5/75)P12 (2-3)UCLA -11.0UCLA 95.8%UCLA
10:30California (3-5/94)P12 (1-4)Southern Cal (7-1/10)P12 (5-1)SCAL -21.5SCAL 99.9%SCAL
   Southeastern ConferencePower 5   
12:00Kentucky (5-3/27)SEC (2-3)Missouri (4-4/71)SEC (2-3)KENT -1.5KENT 62.6%KENT
12:00Florida (4-4/45)SEC (1-4)Texas A&M (3-5/53)SEC (1-4)TAM -3.5FLA 58.4%FLA
3:30Tennessee (8-0/4)SEC (4-0)Georgia (8-0/1)SEC (5-0)GEO -8.0GEO 68.6%GEO
4:00Liberty (7-1/25)IND (2-0)Arkansas (5-3/47)SEC (2-3)ARK -13.5LIB 73.2%LIB
7:00Alabama (7-1/7)SEC (4-1)LSU (6-2/16)SEC (4-1)ALA -13.0ALA 79.6%ALA
7:30Auburn (3-5/35)SEC (1-4)Mississippi St (5-3/31)SEC (2-3)MSST -12.5MSST 70.7%MSST
7:30South Carolina (5-3/48)SEC (2-3)Vanderbilt (3-5/54)SEC (0-4)SCAR -7.0SCAR 66.1%SCAR
IDLE  Mississippi (8-1/9)    
   American Athletic ConferenceGroup of 5   
12:00Tulane (7-1/19)AAC (4-0)Tulsa (3-5/105)AAC (1-3)TULN -7.5TULN 87.7%TULN
2:00South Florida (1-7/99)AAC (0-4)Temple (2-6/143)AAC (0-4)SFLA -3.5TEMP 55.4%TEMP
3:30UCF (6-2/38)AAC (3-1)Memphis (4-4/96)AAC (2-3)UCF -3.0UCF 71.0%UCF
4:00Navy (3-5/125)AAC (3-3)Cincinnati (6-2/44)AAC (3-1)CIN -19.0CIN 77.5%CIN
7:00Houston (5-3/68)AAC (3-1)SMU (4-4/78)AAC (2-2)SMU -3.0HOU 60.0%HOU
IDLE  East Carolina (6-3/58)    
   Conference USAGroup of 5   
THUUTEP (4-5/129)CUSA (2-3)Rice (4-4/110)CUSA (2-2)RICE -4.0RICE 56.9%RICE
12:00W Kentucky (5-4/93)CUSA (3-2)Charlotte (2-7/138)CUSA (1-4)WKY -16.0WKY 61.5%CHAR
3:00Middle Tennessee (4-4/113)CUSA (1-3)LA Tech (2-6/101)CUSA (1-3)MTSU -2.5MTSU 58.9%MTSU
3:30UTSA (6-2/50)CUSA (4-0)UAB (4-4/95)CUSA (2-3)UTSA -1.0UTSA 66.7%UTSA
4:00FIU (4-4/135)CUSA (2-2)North Texas (5-4/90)CUSA (4-1)NTEX -21.0NTEX 59.0%FIU
IDLE  FAU (4-5/112)    
   Mid American ConferenceGroup of 5   
TUEBall St (4-4/102)MAC (2-2)Kent St (3-5/92)MAC (2-2)KTST -6.5BLST 57.5%BLST
TUEBuffalo (5-3/57)MAC (4-0)Ohio (5-3/86)MAC (3-1)BUFF -2.5BUFF 56.7%BUFF
WEDC Michigan (2-6/123)MAC (1-3)N Illinois (2-6/137)MAC (1-3)NILL -5.5NILL 55.1%CMI
WEDW Michigan (3-5/127)MAC (2-2)Bowling Green (4-4/98)MAC (3-1)BG -4.0BG 58.3%BG
IDLE  Akron (1-8/118), Miami OH (4-5/133), E Michigan (5-4/106), Toledo (6-3/65)    
   Mountain West ConferenceGroup of 5   
11:30Air Force (5-3/74)MWC (2-3)Army (3-4/108)IND (0-0)AF -7.0AF 64.1%AF
3:30New Mexico (2-6/128)MWC (0-4)Utah St (3-5/111)MWC (2-2)UTST -15.0UTST 56.5%NMEX
7:00BYU (4-5/81)IND (0-2)Boise St (6-2/42)MWC (5-0)BOST -6.5BOST 76.0%BOST
7:00UNLV (4-4/119)MWC (2-2)San Diego St (4-4/114)MWC (2-2)SDST -6.5SDST 55.2%UNLV
10:30Colorado St (2-6/121)MWC (2-2)San Jose St (5-2/59)MWC (2-2)SJST -24.0SJST 74.5%COST
10:30Hawaii (2-7/140)MWC (1-3)Fresno St (4-4/82)MWC (3-1)FRST -24.0FRST 60.7%HAW
IDLE  Wyoming (6-3/70), Nevada (2-7/145)    
   Sun Belt ConferenceGroup of 5   
THUApp St (5-3/77)SUN (2-2)Coastal Carolina (7-1/28)SUN (4-1)APST -3.0CCAR 76.4%CCAR
2:00Marshall (4-4/89)SUN (1-3)Old Dominion (3-5/115)SUN (2-2)MARS -3.0MARS 57.9%MARS
3:00Georgia St (3-5/103)SUN (2-2)Southern Miss (5-3/66)SUN (3-1)SMIS -2.0SMIS 65.3%SMIS
4:00South Alabama (6-2/43)SUN (3-1)Ga Southern (5-3/73)SUN (2-2)SALA -3.5SALA 65.5%SALA
5:00Troy (6-2/33)SUN (4-1)Louisiana (4-4/109)SUN (2-3)TROY -5.5TROY 68.2%TROY
5:00Texas St (3-5/120)SUN (1-3)ULM (2-6/107)SUN (1-3)ULM -1.0TXST 56.1%TXST
OOC  James Madison (LOU – ACC)    
IDLE  Arkansas St (2-7/122)    
   IndependentsGroup of 5Notre DamePower 5 
FRIUMASS (1-7/117)IND (0-2)UCONN (4-5/91)IND (0-0)UCON -15.5UCON 58.1%UMAS
OOC  Army (AF – MWC), Liberty (ARK – SEC), BYU (BOST – MWC), Notre Dame (CLEM – ACC)    
IDLE  New Mexico St (3-5/154)    
   Atlantic SunFCS   
1:00Kennesaw St (4-4/193)ASUN (1-2)Tennessee Martin (5-3/166)OFVC (3-0)NLTMAR 56.9%NL
5:00Austin Peay (5-3/170)ASUN (1-2)N Alabama (1-7/256)ASUN (0-4)NLAP 57.4%NL
5:00C Arkansas (4-4/184)ASUN (3-0)E Kentucky (5-3/171)ASUN (1-1)NLEKY 56.6%NL
IDLE  Jacksonville St (7-2/144)    
   Big Sky ConferenceFCS   
3:00Sacramento St (8-0/104)BSKY (5-0)Weber St (7-1/126)BSKY (4-1)NLSAC 57.4%NL
3:00E Washington (2-6/201)BSKY (1-4)Idaho (5-3/167)BSKY (4-1)NLID 58.1%NL
4:00Montana St (7-1/134)BSKY (5-0)N Arizona (3-5/235)BSKY (2-3)NLMTST 61.5%NL
5:00N Colorado (2-6/226)BSKY (1-4)Portland St (3-5/195)BSKY (2-3)NLPTST 55.5%NL
7:00Idaho St (1-7/239)BSKY (1-4)UC Davis (4-4/191)BSKY (3-2)NLUCD 56.6%NL
8:00Cal Poly (1-7/250)BSKY (0-5)Montana (5-3/173)BSKY (2-3)NLMONT 58.2%NL
   Big South ConferenceFCS   
12:00Robert Morris (0-8/202)BSO (0-3)Charleston Southern (1-7/225)BSO (1-2)NLRM 55.0%NL
12:00Norfolk St (1-7/223)MEAC (1-2)NC A&T (5-3/178)BSO (3-0)NLNCAT 57.6%NL
2:00Campbell (4-4/188)BSO (2-1)Bryant (2-6/261)BSO (0-3)NLCAMP 56.1%NL
IDLE  Gardner Webb (4-5/189)    
   Colonial Athletic AssociationFCS   
1:00Maine (2-6/254)CAA (2-3)Rhode Island (5-3/174)CAA (3-2)NLRI 57.8%NL
1:00William & Mary (7-1/132)CAA (4-1)Hampton (4-4/199)CAA (1-4)NLW&M 61.1%NL
1:00Monmouth (4-5/212)CAA (2-4)Delaware (6-2/146)CAA (3-2)NLDEL 60.3%NL
1:00Morgan St (3-5/222)MEAC (1-2)Stony Brook (1-7/230)CAA (1-5)NLMORG 55.3%NL
2:00Villanova (5-3/176)CAA (3-2)Towson (3-5/218)CAA (1-4)NLVILL 56.8%NL
2:00Albany (2-6/242)CAA (1-4)Elon (6-3/164)CAA (4-2)NLELON 58.7%NL
3:30New Hampshire (6-2/163)CAA (5-0)Richmond (6-2/150)CAA (4-1)NLRICH 56.8%NL
   Ivy LeagueFCS   
12:00Brown (3-4/210)Ivy (1-3)Yale (5-2/161)Ivy (3-1)NLYALE 58.5%NL
1:00Dartmouth (2-5/244)Ivy (1-3)Princeton (7-0/124)Ivy (4-0)NLPRIN 65.1%NL
1:00Penn (6-1/139)Ivy (3-1)Cornell (4-3/190)Ivy (1-3)NLPENN 59.6%NL
1:00Columbia (3-4/217)Ivy (0-4)Harvard (5-2/162)Ivy (3-1)NLHARV 58.2%NL
   Mid-Eastern Athletic ConfFCS   
1:30Delaware St (4-4/197)MEAC (1-2)South Carolina St (3-5/194)MEAC (1-1)NLDEST 55.5%NL
2:00Howard (3-5/240)MEAC (2-0)NC Central (6-2/153)MEAC (2-1)NLNCC 60.0%NL
OOC  Norfolk St (NCAT – BSO), Morgan St (SB – CAA)    
   Mountain Valley Football ConfFCS   
1:00North Dakota (5-3/185)MVFC (3-2)Indiana St (1-7/221)MVFC (0-5)NLNDAK 56.7%NL
2:00North Dakota St (6-2/149)MVFC (4-1)W Illinois (0-8/206)MVFC (0-5)NLNDST 59.7%NL
2:00Missouri St (3-5/205)MVFC (1-4)South Dakota (2-6/208)MVFC (1-4)NLMOST 55.2%NL
3:00Youngstown St (5-3/181)MVFC (3-2)Illinois St (5-3/179)MVFC (3-2)NLILST 55.3%NL
5:00South Dakota St (8-1/130)MVFC (6-0)N Iowa (5-4/186)MVFC (4-2)NLSDKS 60.8%NL
IDLE  S Illinois (5-4/183)    
   Northeast ConferenceFCS   
12:00Sacred Heart (4-4/198)NEC (2-2)Duquesne (2-6/249)NEC (1-3)NLSH 55.9%NL
12:30St Francis (6-2/152)NEC (5-0)Georgetown (2-6/259)PAT (1-3)NLSTFR 59.5%NL
1:00C Connecticut (1-7/251)NEC (1-3)Long Island (1-7/233)NEC (1-3)NLLIU 55.1%NL
1:00Wagner (1-7/215)NEC (1-3)Stonehill (3-3/196)NEC (1-3)NLSTON 56.2%NL
IDLE  Merrimack (7-2/147)    
   Ohio Valley Football ConfFCS   
2:30Lindenwood (6-2/159)OVFC (2-2)Tennessee Tech (2-6/213)OFVC (1-3)NLLIN 58.6%NL
6:00SEMO (6-2/155)OVFC (2-0)Tennessee St (3-5/252)OFVC (2-1)NLSEMO 58.9%NL
8:00E Illinois (2-6/260)OVFC (1-3)McNeese (1-7/220)OFVC (0-4)NLEILL 55.1%NL
IDLE  Murray St (1-8/211)    
   Patriot LeagueFCS   
12:00Lehigh (1-7/248)PAT (1-2)Holy Cross (8-0/97)PAT (4-0)NLHC 68.6%NL
1:00Lafayette (2-6/246)PAT (1-2)Colgate (3-5/216)PAT (2-1)NLCOLG 55.5%NL
1:00Fordham (6-2/157)PAT (2-1)Bucknell (1-7/253)PAT (1-3)NLFORD 59.0%NL
OOC  Georgetown (STFR – NEC)    
   Pioneer Football LeagueFCS   
1:00Stetson (3-4/227)PFL (1-3)Davidson (6-2/151)PFL (4-1)NLDAV 60.0%NL
1:00Marist (3-5/243)PFL (3-3)Morehead St (2-6/232)PFL (1-4)NLMAR 55.2%NL
1:00Dayton (6-2/160)PFL (4-1)Presbyterian (1-8/234)PFL (0-6)NLDAY 58.7%NL
2:00St Thomas (7-1/136)PFL ( 5-0)Valparaiso (4-4/200)PFL (3-2)NLSTTH 60.7%NL
4:00Butler (6-2/156)PFL (4-1)San Diego (3-4/219)PFL (2-2)NLBUT 58.3%NL
IDLE  Drake (1-8/241)    
   Southern ConferenceFCS   
2:00Chattanooga (6-2/148)SoCon (4-1)Citadel (2-6/229)SoCon (2-4)NLCHAT 59.4%NL
2:00Wofford (2-6/237)SoCon (2-3)W Carolina (3-5/228)SoCon (1-4)NLWCAR 55.4%NL
3:00VMI (1-7/207)SoCon (0-5)Samford (7-1/131)SoCon (0-5)NLSAM 63.3%NL
IDLE  E Tennessee St (3-6/258), Furman (7-2/141), Mercer (7-2/141)    
   Southland ConferenceFCS   
3:00Houston Christian (2-6/257)SLAN (1-3)Incarnate Word (8-1/116)SLAN (4-1)NLIW 66.0%NL
3:00Northwestern St (3-5/238)SLAN (3-0)TAM Commerce (5-3/182)SLAN (3-1)NLTCOM 57.1%NL
4:00SELA (5-3/168)SLAN (2-1)Lamar (1-7/247)SLAN (1-3)NLSELA 57.4%NL
OOC  McNeese (EILL – OVFC)    
IDLE  Nicholls (2-7/231)    
   Southwestern Athletic ConfFCS   
THUAlabama A&M (3-5/204)SWAC (3-2)Mississippi Valley (0-8/209)SWAC (0-5)NLALAM 55.4%NL
FRIAlcorn St (3-5/214)SWAC (2-3)Prairie View (5-3/180)SWAC (4-1)NLPV 57.2%NL
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (2-6/224)SWAC (0-5)Grambling St (2-6/255)SWAC (1-5)NLGRAM 55.1%NL
5:00Alabama St (5-3/172)SWAC (3-2)Bethune Cookman (2-6/245)SWAC (2-3)NLALST 56.9%NL
6:00Southern (5-3/177)SWAC (3-2)Florida A&M (6-2/158)SWAC (4-1)NLFLAM 57.2%NL
7:00Jackson St (8-0/83)SWAC (6-0)Texas Southern (4-4/192)SWAC (3-2)NLJACK 67.0%NL
   Western Athletic ConferenceFCS   
8:00S Utah (3-5/203)WAC (1-3)Utah Tech (2-6/236)WAC (1-3)NLSUT 55.4%NL
8:00Abilene Christian (5-3/175)WAC (2-1)Tarleton St (5-3/169)WAC (1-2)NLABCH 55.4%NL
IDLE  Sam Houston (5-2/165), Steph F Austin (5-4/187)