G’s Expectation or Who Wins Week 7?

Welcome to a brand-new week of college football! Liberty (4-0/31) and FIU (2-3/104) kicked off at 7:00 (all times Eastern) just about 18 minutes ago. Liberty is already up 3-0 with 7:10 to go in the first quarter, but more importantly, it’s the first of 46 consecutive days of either college or pro football. What a glorious time of year! By the way, Vegas has LIB-16.0 and the GCR agrees 73% and to cover in this Conference USA matchup.

…..

We continue tomorrow with New Mexico St (1-4/117) at Jacksonville St (2-3/125) and 3 games on Thursday. Friday has 5 games, including 2 FCS bouts, before we hit some of the most important games of the year on Saturday.

…..

The game to watch before Saturday is the last one, chronologically, when Utah (4-1/33) travels to Arizona St (4-1/32) in a Big 12 battle at 10:30pm. Another conference loss builds a tremendous wall to make the title game. When Utah has the ball, their Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) is a below average 96 (138th in the country). That means they score just 9.6 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face an AZST DER (Defensive Efficiency Rating) of 125 (69th), meaning they allow 10.0 points for every 12.5 points their opponents normally score. When the Sun Devils are driving, a mediocre OER of 103 (122nd) faces a Ute DER of 125 (72nd). This should be a low-scoring affair. Vegas thinks so too with an over/under of just 45.5. They also think Utah-6.5 will prevail. The GCR thinks the Utes will get the W, but it will be closer to a field goal. Arizona St suffers the loss but covers the spread.

…..

FIU has tied the game with a field goal of their own: 3-3 1:47 in the first.

…..

The noon game to watch is in the Big Ten when Washington (4-2/37) tries to build on the win over Michigan by traveling to Iowa (3-2/39) who stopped Ohio St for a half last week. I like this game a lot. When Washington is driving, they bring an OER of 111 (97th) and face an elite Hawkeye DER of 167 (21st). Iowa has done better than expected (last week notwithstanding) on the offensive side of the ball with an OER of 158 (12th) which will compete against an even better Huskie DER of 224 (9th). Again, points may be hard to come by (Vegas over/under at 41.5), and Vegas thinks Iowa will hold on with a less-than-home-field-advantage Hawkeye-2.5. The GCR sees a road upset but extraordinarily close with WASH at just partial points above 50% and to cover. This could be something like 14-13 and it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

…..

Liberty fumbled in their next possession; a scoop and score gives FIU a quick 10-3 lead with 14:52 in the half.

…..

The 3:30 game is the only neutral site contest of the week when Texas (5-0/1) and Oklahoma (4-1/28) meet in this year’s version of the Red River Rivalry – inaugural SEC season. As the only undefeated SEC team remaining, and the only one in the GCR top 10 after a tremendous start by the conference, the path to a high seed in the first 12-team playoff is completely in the Longhorns’ hands. When they have the ball, they bring a top 3 OER of 166 (3rd) and will face a top 25 Sooner DER of 189 (16th). When OKLA is on offense, a respectable OER of 132 (44th) take of a top 3 TEX DER of 325 (3rd). Texas is the only team to have both OER and DER in the top 5. Vegas sees a big win for Texas-14.5 and the GCR agrees with the win, TEX 54%, but it will be much closer (as rivalries often are). Oklahoma will cover, but take the loss.

…..

Liberty just tied the game up 10-10 with a 3-yd rush – 8:16 in the half.

…..

The game of the week kicks off at 7:30 when Ohio St (5-0/2) travels west to Oregon (5-0/8) in a GCR Top 10 matchup. Indiana (6-0/3) is idle and Penn St (5-0/6) who is at Southern Cal this week, are also undefeated in conference, but it just feels like the winner of this game has an invitation to the Big Ten championship game, which could just be a rematch. When the Buckeyes are driving, they bring an elite OER of 162 (6th) facing an Oregon DER of 164 (26th). When the Ducks have the ball, an OER of 141 (30th) faces the best DER in the country of 353 (1st). Vegas sees OHST-3.0 in a close one and the GCR agrees. It will be close, and Ohio St will win, but only 52% chance. The GCR sees Oregon’s home field advantage making the game closer. I could joke and say the uniform colors alone would distract anyone. The Ducks will cover.

…..

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the games and look for the next iteration of the Top 263 on Sunday. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G

Time Away Team
(Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team
Record/ GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR WinGCR Cover
   ACC (17 teams)Core 4   
12:00Clemson (4-1/30)ACC (3-0)Wake
Forest
(2-3/85)
ACC (1-1)CLEM-20.0CLEM 62%WF
12:00Georgia
Tech
(4-2/46)
ACC (2-2)North Carolina (3-3/54)ACC (0-2)GT-6.0GT 55%NCAR
3:30California (3-2/70)ACC (0-2)Pittsburgh (5-0/9)ACC (1-0)PITT-3.0PITT 64%PITT
3:30Louisville (3-2/47)ACC (1-1)Virginia (4-1/29)ACC (1-1)LOU-7.5VIR 57%VIR
3:30Stanford (2-3/86)ACC (1-2)Notre Dame (4-1/21)IND (0-0)ND-23.5ND 71%STAN
8:00Syracuse (4-1/35)ACC (1-1)NC
St
(3-3/91)
ACC (0-2)SYR-4.5SYR 59%SYR
Idle  Boston College (4-2/43), Duke (5-1/24), Florida St (1-5/72), Miami FL (6-0/5), SMU (5-1/18), Virginia Tech (3-3/62)    
   Big 12 (16 teams)Core 4   
FRI 10:30Utah (4-1/33)B12 (2-1)Arizona
St
(4-1/32)
B12 (1-1)UTAH-6.5UTAH 53%AZST
3:30Cincinnati (3-2/53)B12 (1-1)UCF (3-2/52)B12 (1-1)UCF-3.0CIN 52%CIN
4:00Arizona (3-2/48)B12 (1-2)BYU (5-0/7)B12 (2-0)BYU-4.5BYU 65%BYU
8:00Iowa St (5-0/4)B12 (2-0)West Virginia (3-2/50)B12 (2-0)IAST-3.0IAST 59%IAST
10:15Kansas
St
(4-1/15)
B12 (2-1)Colorado (4-1/26)B12 (2-0)KSST-3.5KSST 51%COL
OOC  none    
Idle  Baylor (2-4/51), Houston (2-4/82), Kansas (1-5/92), Oklahoma St (3-3/74), TCU (3-3/98), Texas Tech (5-1/20)    
   Big Ten (18 teams)Core 4   
FRI 8:00North-western
(2-3/75)
B10 (0-2)Maryland (3-2/27)B10 (0-2)MARY-10.5MARY 62%MARY
12:00Wisconsin (3-2/79)B10 (1-1)Rutgers (4-1/23)B10 (1-1)RUTG-2.5RUTG 61%RUTG
12:00Wash-ington
(4-2/37)
B10 (2-1)Iowa (3-2/39)B10 (1-1)IOWA-2.5WASH 50%WASH
3:30Penn
St
(5-0/6)
B10 (2-0)Southern
Cal
(3-2/56)
B10 (1-2)PSU-5.5PSU 57%PSU
3:30Purdue (1-4/87)B10 (0-2)Illinois (4-1/16)B10 (1-1)ILL-19.5ILL 84%ILL
7:30Ohio St (5-0/2)B10 (2-0)Oregon (5-0/8)B10 (2-0)OHST-3.0OHST 52%ORE
9:00Minnesota (3-3/78)B10 (1-2)UCLA (1-4/34)B10 (0-3)MINN-5.5MINN 64%MINN
OOC  none    
Idle  Indiana (6-0/3), Michigan (4-2/38), Michigan St (3-3/58), Nebraska (5-1/14)    
   SEC (16 teams)Core 4   
12:00South Carolina (3-2/66)SEC (1-2)Alabama (4-1/22)SEC (1-1)ALA-21.0ALA 62%SCAR
12:00Missouri (4-1/25)SEC (1-1)UMASS (1-5/132)IND (0-0)MIZZ-27.5MIZZ 87%MIZZ
3:30Texas (5-0/1) – NSEC (1-0)Oklahoma (4-1/28) – NSEC (1-1)TEX-14.5TEX 54%OKLA
4:15Mississippi
St
(1-4/67)
SEC (0-2)Georgia (4-1/17)SEC (2-1)GEO-34.5GEO 83%MSST
7:00Florida (3-2/45)SEC (1-1)Tennessee (4-1/13)SEC (1-1)TENN-15.5TENN 64%FLA
7:30Mississippi (5-1/11)SEC (1-1)LSU (4-1/36)SEC (1-0)MISS-3.5MISS 50%LSU
7:45Vanderbilt (3-2/73)SEC (1-1)Kentucky (3-2/49)SEC (1-2)KENT-14.0KENT 55%VAND
OOC  none    
Idle  Arkansas (4-2/42), Auburn (2-4/96), Texas A&M (5-1/12)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
12:00UAB (1-4/101)AAC (0-2)Army (5-0/10)AAC (4-0)ARMY-25.5ARMY 89%ARMY
3:30Memphis (4-1/61)AAC (0-1)South Florida (2-3/100)AAC (0-1)MEM-7.5MEM 63%MEM
7:00UTSA (2-3/111)AAC (0-1)Rice (1-4/121)AAC (0-2)UTSA-6.5UTSA 60%UTSA
7:00North
Texas
(4-1/60)
AAC (1-0)FAU (2-3/112)AAC (0-1)NTEX-7.0NTEX 62%NTEX
OOC  none    
Idle  Charlotte (3-3/97), East Carolina (3-3/119), Navy (5-0/19), Temple (1-5/88), Tulane (4-2/68), Tulsa (2-4/127)    
   C-USA (10 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00FIU (2-3/104)USA (1-0)Liberty (4-0/31)USA (2-0)LIB-16.0LIB 73%LIB
WED 7:30New
Mexico St
(1-4/117)
USA (0-2)Jackson-ville
St (2-3/125)
USA (1-0)JAX-20.5JAX 72%JAX
THU 8:00Middle Tennessee (1-4/93)USA (0-1)LA
Tech
(1-3/146)
USA (0-1)LATC-5.0LATC 60%LATC
THU 8:00UTEP (0-5/103)USA (0-2)W Kentucky (3-2/81)USA (1-0)WKY-19.5WKY 81%WKY
OOC  none    
Idle  Kennesaw St (0-5/138), Sam Houston (5-1/55)    
   FBS Indep-endents
(3 teams)
G5 (ND-C4)   
OOC  Notre Dame (Stanford-ACC), UMASS (Missouri-SEC)    
Idle  UCONN (4-2/77)    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
        
12:00Toledo (4-1/63)MAC (1-0)Buffalo (3-2/95)MAC (1-0)TOL-9.5TOL 56%BUFF
12:00Ball
St
(1-4/102)
MAC (0-2)Kent
St
(0-5/80)
MAC (0-1)BLST-7.0BLST 52%KTST
2:00Miami
OH
(1-4/128)
MAC (0-1)E Michigan (4-1/64)MAC (1-0)MIAO-2.5EMI 81%EMI
3:30N Illinois (3-2/90)MAC (0-1)Bowling
Green
(2-3/110)
MAC (1-0)BG-3.0NILL 55%NILL
3:30Akron (1-5/115)MAC (0-2)W Michigan (2-3/123)MAC (1-0)WMI-8.5WMI 73%WMI
4:00Ohio (3-2/107)MAC (1-0)C Michigan (3-2/106)MAC (1-0)OHIO-3.0CMI 54%CMI
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
FRI 9:00UNLV (4-1/57)MWC (1-0)Utah
St
(1-4/130)
MWC (0-1)UNLV-18.5UNLV 78%UNLV
3:30San Jose St (4-1/71)MWC (2-0)Colorado
St
(2-3/109)
MWC (0-0)SJST-1.5SJST 65%SJST
3:30San Diego St (2-3/131)MWC (1-0)Wyoming (1-4/105)MWC (1-0)SDST-2.5SDST 61%SDST
7:00Wash-ington
St
(4-1/40)
P12 (0-0)Fresno
St
(3-2/99)
MWC (1-1)WAST-3.0WAST 53%WAST
7:00Air
Force
(1-4/140)
MWC (0-2)New Mexico (1-4/136)MWC (0-1)NMEX-6.5NMEX 58%NMEX
7:30Oregon
St
(4-1/65)
P12 (0-0)Nevada (2-4/118)MWC (0-1)ORST-4.0ORST 66%ORST
11:00Boise
St
(4-1/41)
MWC (1-0)Hawaii (2-3/133)MWC (0-1)BOST-20.5BOST 63%HAW
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Pac-12 (2 teams)G5   
OOC  Oregon St (@Nevada-MWC), Washington St (@Fresno St-MWC)    
Idle  none    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30Coastal Carolina (4-1/69)SUN (1-0)James Madison (4-1/44)SUN (0-1)JMU-9.5JMU 55%CCAR
3:30Old
Dominion (1-4/129)
SUN (0-1)Georgia
St
(2-2/108)
SUN (0-1)GAST-1.5GAST 68%GAST
5:00Southern
Miss
(1-4/141)
SUN (0-1)ULM (4-1/59)SUN (2-0)ULM-6.5ULM 83%ULM
7:00Arkansas
St
(3-2/84)
SUN (1-0)Texas
St
(3-2/89)
SUN (1-0)TXST-14.5TXST 56%ARST
7:30App
St
(2-3/124)
SUN (0-2)Louisiana (4-1/76)SUN (1-0)LAU-10.5LAU 70%LAU
8:00Marshall (3-2/94)SUN (1-0)Ga Southern (3-2/83)SUN (1-0)MARS-1.5GASO 54%GASO
OOC  none    
Idle  South Alabama (2-4/120), Troy (1-5/126)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
4:00N Arizona (3-3/192)SKY (1-1)Montana (4-2/159)SKY (1-1)NLMONT 61%NL
6:00Portland
St
(0-5/195)
SKY (0-2)Idaho
St
(3-3/186)
SKY (1-1)NLIDST 62%NL
7:00Cal
Poly
(2-3/231)
SKY (1-1)UC
Davis
(5-1/145)
SKY (2-0)NLUCD 72%NL
8:00N Colorado (0-6/233)SKY (0-2)Weber
St
(3-3/184)
SKY (2-0)NLWEB 65%NL
9:00E Wash-ington
(1-4/251)
SKY (0-1)Sacra-mento
St
(2-3/206)
SKY (0-1)NLSAC 67%NL
10:15Idaho (4-2/148)SKY (1-1)Montana
St
(6-0/113)
SKY (2-0)NLMTST 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big South/ Ohio Valley (9 teams)FCS   
2:00Charleston (1-4/256)BSOV (0-2)Linden-wood
(2-4/247)
BSOV (1-1)NLLIN 56%NL
4:00Tennessee Martin (3-3/185)BSOV (1-1)W Illinois (2-3/170)BSOV (1-0)NLTMAR 52%NL
4:00Tennessee
Tech
(2-3/207)
BSOV (2-0)SEMO (5-1/139)BSOV (2-0)NLSEMO 71%NL
6:00E Illinois (1-5/223)BSOV (0-2)Tennessee
St
(4-2/166)
BSOV (2-1)NLTNST 76%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Gardner Webb (1-5/242)    
   Colonial (16 teams)FCS   
1:00Brown (2-1/177)IVY (1-0)Rhode
Island
(4-1/150)
CAA (2-0)NLRISL 60%NL
1:00Maine (3-2/183)CAA (1-1)Delaware (5-0/122)CAA (3-0)NLDEL 69%NL
1:00Albany (2-3/219)CAA (0-1)Bryant (2-3/230)CAA (0-2)NLPICKNL
2:00Towson (2-3/198)CAA (1-1)Norfolk
St
(2-5/252)
MEAC (0-1)NLTOW 61%NL
2:00New Hampshire (3-2/171)CAA (1-0)Elon (1-4/210)CAA (0-1)NLNH 69%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Campbell (2-4/226), Hampton (3-3/202), Monmouth (3-3/193), North Carolina A&T (1-5/246), Richmond (4-2/156), Stony Brook (4-2/160), Villanova (5-1/144), William & Mary (4-2/155)    
   FCS Independent (2 teams)FCS   
1:00Sacred
Heart
(3-3/214)
FCS (0-0)Howard (2-3/209)MEAC (0-0)NLSH 53%NL
3:00Merrimack (1-4/222)FCS (0-0)Morgan
St
(3-3/188)
MEAC (0-0)NLMORG 70%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
FRI 6:00Harvard (2-1/168)IVY (0-1)Cornell (1-2/262)IVY (1-0)NLHARV 69%NL
12:00Dart-mouth
(3-0/135)
IVY (1-0)Yale (2-1/189)IVY (0-1)NLDART 60%NL
12:00Columbia (2-1/169)IVY (1-0)Wagner (3-3/208)NEC (1-1)NLCOLA 54%NL
1:00Bucknell (3-2/178)PAT (1-0)Penn (1-2/225)IVY (0-1)NLBUCK 57%NL
3:30Princeton (1-2/245)IVY (0-1)Mercer (5-0/116)SoCon (3-0)NLMERC 81%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
2:00Lynchburg (NA)NANC Central (4-2/161)MEAC (1-0)NLNLNL
3:00Delaware
St
(1-5/257)
MEAC (0-0)Robert Morris (2-3/253)NEC (2-0)NLRM 57%NL
OOC  Howard (Sacred Heart-FCS), Morgan St (Merrimack-FCS), Norfolk St (Towson-CAA)    
Idle  South Carolina St (3-2/176)    
   Missouri Valley (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Missouri
St
(3-2/187)
MVC (1-0)Illinois
St
(4-2/157)
MVC (1-1)NLILST 59%NL
1:00Murray
S
t (1-4/201)
MVC (0-2)Indiana
St
(1-4/259)
MVC (0-1)NLMURR 52%NL
3:00North
Dakota St
(5-1/137)
MVC (2-0)S Illinois (2-4/191)MVC (0-2)NLNDST 75%NL
3:00N
Iowa
(2-3/204)
MVC (0-1)South Dakota (4-1/134)MVC (2-0)NLSDAK 74%NL
3:00Youngs-town
St
(2-4/199)
MVC (1-1)South
Dakota St
(4-1/142)
MVC (1-0)NLSDKS 80%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  North Dakota (4-2/149)    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Stonehill (1-3/248)NEC (0-1)Long
Island
(0-6/229)
NEC (0-1)NLLIU 58%NL
12:00Mercy-hurst
(2-4/155)
NEC (0-1)C Connect-icut
(2-3/221)
NEC (1-0)NLCCON 70%NL
12:00Duquesne (3-2/165)NEC (1-0)St Francis (2-3/212)NEC (0-1)NLDUQ 55%NL
OOC  Robert Morris (Delaware St-MEAC), Wagner (Columbia-IVY)    
Idle  none    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
12:30George-town
(3-2/182)
PAT (0-0)Lafayette (3-2/175)PAT (1-0)NLLAF 55%NL
1:00Fordham (0-6/244)PAT (0-1)Holy
Cross
(2-4/216)
PAT (1-0)NLFORD 50%NL
OOC  Bucknell (@Penn-IVY)    
Idle  Colgate (1-5/261), Lehigh (3-2/167)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
12:00Davidson (4-1/147)PFL (2-0)Dayton (3-1/154)PFL (1-0)NLDAV 52%NL
12:00St Thomas (2-3/263)PFL (1-0)Marist (0-5/235)PFL (0-2)NLMAR 63%NL
1:00Valparaiso (2-4/258)PFL (0-2)Stetson (2-3/249)PFL (0-1)NLSTET 61%NL
2:00Presby-terian
(2-4/254)
PFL (0-2)Morehead
St
(3-3/200)
PFL (1-1)NLMHST 70%NL
2:00Butler (5-0/114)PFL (1-0)Drake (3-1/158)PFL (2-0)NLBUT 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  San
Diego
(3-2/161)
    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:30VMI (0-5/211)SoCon (0-1)Wofford (2-3/234)SoCon (0-2)NLWOFF 56%NL
2:00Chatta-nooga
(2-3/190)
SoCon (1-1)Furman (2-3/197)SoCon (1-0)NLCHAT 51%NL
2:30Citadel (2-4/250)SoCon (0-3)W Carolina (2-3/215)SoCon (1-0)NLWCAR 66%NL
3:30Samford (2-2/2-3)SoCon (1-0)E Tennessee St
(3-3/194)
SoCon (1-1)NLETSU 54%NL
OOC  Mercer
(Princeton-IVY)
    
Idle  none    
   Southland (9 teams)FCS   
3:00South-eastern
(2-4/220)
SLAN (1-0)Houston Christian (3-3/172)SLAN (1-0)NLHOCH 67%NL
3:00Com-merce
(0-5/243)
SLAN (0-1)North-western
St
(0-6/227)
SLAN (0-1)NLCOMM 53%NL
4:00Steph F Austin (3-2/164)SLAN (1-1)Lamar (3-2/179)SLAN (0-0)NLPICKNL
7:00Nicholls (2-3/213)SLAN (0-0)Incarnate
Word
(3-2/180)
SLAN (0-0)NLIW 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  McNeese (4-3/163)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
FRI 9:15Prairie
View
(2-4/237)
SWAC (1-2)Ark Pine Bluff (1-4/217)SWAC (0-1)NLPV 52%NL
3:00Alcorn
St
(3-3/196)
SWAC (2-0)Grambling
St
(3-2/173)
SWAC (1-1)NLGRAM 56%NL
3:00Bethune (0-5/241)SWAC (0-1)Alabama
A&M
(2-3/224)
SWAC (0-1)NLALAM 57%NL
3:00Mississippi
Valley
(0-5/241)
SWAC (0-1)Alabama
St
(2-3/238)
SWAC (1-1)NLALST 52%NL
7:00Southern (2-3/232)SWAC (1-1)Texas Southern (2-3/228)SWAC (1-1)NLTXSO 55%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Florida A&M (3-2/162), Jackson St (4-2/153)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
4:00E Kentucky (3-2/174)UAC (1-0)S
Utah
(2-4/205)
UAC (1-1)NLEKY 62%NL
5:00West Georgia (1-4/260)UAC (0-4)C Arkansas (4-2/151)UAC (1-1)NLCARK 82%NL
7:00Abilene Christian (4-2/152)UAC (3-0)N Alabama (2-5/236)UAC (2-1)NLABCH 76%NL
7:00Utah
Tech
(0-6/218)
UAC (0-2)Tarleton (5-1/143)UAC (2-0)NLTARL 77%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Austin Peay (2-4/239)