G’s Expectation or Who’s Going to Win This Week?

Happy Hump Day college football fans. We have an earlier than normal G’s Expectations because of a game rescheduled due to Hurricane Ian only to be rescheduled again, apparently, when both schools realized they both had bye weeks this week. This is higher education, people! Anyway, we get a game tonight so all is forgiven. SMU (2-2/81) is in Orlando facing UCF (3-1/64) in both team’s American Conference debut for the year. The game has already started, and SMU has the early lead 7-3 with 7:27 in the first.

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For years, I’ve picked a few games in each time slot to focus on for this post, but in a one-time (or first-time, who knows?) change, I’m going to only talk about the undefeated teams. Last week, we dropped to 25 perfect squads (16 in the FBS, 9 in the FCS) and it seemed right to see how many we think will last another week. Tradition says we will lose 4-6 more this week, but there are occasional upset weeks, which we haven’t really had yet, Sun Belt East notwithstanding. It’s very difficult to guess which will fail but let’s look at what we have, starting with the FCS.

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The GCR prediction formular has always understated the difference between FCS teams, rarely predicting a team to win by 70% or 2 touchdowns. That information is important as we compare. I made a table that shows each perfect team, its opponent, and the likelihood of winning, all times Eastern. The logic, as I see it, is the closer the prediction, the more likely an upset – dangerous words, I know. Montana and Stonehill are both idle, so we know there will be 2 left after this weekend. In each case below, the undefeated team is favored to win. From closest game to blowout worthy:

TimeAway (Record)Home (Record)Pct to WinGCR Line
3:30Delaware (5-0/110)William & Mary (4-1/144)62.0%-9.0
12:30Princeton (3-0/136)Lafayette (2-3/230)63.2%-9.5
2:00Penn (3-0/135)Georgetown (1-4/253)64.1%-10.5
3:00Jackson St (4-0/117)Alabama St (3-2/166)65.6%-11.5
9:00N Colorado (2-3/244)Sacramento St (4-0/126)68.9%-14.0
4:00Bucknell (0-4/252) – NHoly Cross (5-0/116) – N70.0%-14.5
8:00E Washington (1-3/193)Weber St (4-0/115)70.4%-15.0

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As we can see, none of these are remarkably close, but the Delaware at William & Mary game is the FCS game of the week. Let’s look at the FBS teams with an added column (Vegas Line). Syracuse and Penn St are idle, and we have the GCR Game of the Week between two perfect teams when TCU invade Kansas. So, we will have at least 3 remaining after this weekend. Here are all the games from closest to <YAWN>. The lines and pct to win are from the undefeated team’s perspective. The TCU/Kansas game is from Kansas’ perspective because they are the higher ranked team in the GCR.

TimeAway (Record)Home (Record)Pct to WinVegas LineGCR Line
3:30Utah (4-1/26)UCLA (5-0/11)51.3%+4.5-1.5
12:00TCU (4-0/13)Kansas (5-0/12)55.7%+7.5-4.0
3:30Texas Tech (3-2/58)Oklahoma St (4-0/14)63.2%-9.5-9.5
7:30Washington St (4-1/32)Southern Cal (5-0/8)78.7%-13.0-21.0
4:00Mississippi (5-0/4)Vanderbilt (3-2/55)86.3%-18.5-27.5
12:00Tennessee (4-0/10)LSU (4-1/18)89.1%-3.0-28.5
4:00Ohio St (5-0/5)Michigan St (2-3/71)92.2%-26.5-31.0
12:00Michigan (5-0/3)Indiana (3-2/60)94.0%-22.5-32.5
8:00Coastal Carolina (5-0/30)ULM (2-3/107)99.3%-13.5-35.0
3:30Auburn (3-2/42)Georgia (5-0/2)99.9%-30.0-36.5
7:30Clemson (5-0/7)Boston College (2-3/105)99.9%-21.0-36.5
8:00Texas A&M (3-2/59)Alabama (5-0/1)99.9%-24.0-38.0
7:00James Madison (4-0/17)Arkansas St (2-3/97)99.9%-11.5-42.5

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There are certainly additional meaningful games, but we are at the mid-season point following these games. The remaining undefeateds are certainly going to impact the conference leadership and playoff pictures.

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While I’ve been typing, scoring as been rampant. With 3:24 to go in the half, SMU 13-10 over UCF. By the way, Vegas has UCF -3.0 while the GCR has the Knights 76.3%, -19.0.

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Last week, the GCR was 45-18 (.714) for the FBS games and 41-12 (.774) for FCS/FCS games. That totals to a respectable 86-30 (.741) for the week and brings us to 215-94 (.696) for the year. That’s it for this week. All 111 (109 are predicted) games are below. Have a great football weekend! Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G

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TimeAwayConf/RecOPP Rec/ SOS RankHomeConf/RecOPP Rec/ SOS RankVegasGCRGCR
WEDSMU (2-2/81)American (0-0)550/57UCF (3-1/64)American (0-0)350/64UCF -3.0UCF 76.3%UCF -19.0
FRINebraska (2-3/108)Big Ten (1-1)520/74Rutgers (3-2/50)Big Ten (0-2)500/50NEB -3.0RUTG 66.7%RUTG -12.0
FRIHouston (2-3/75)American (0-1)720/22Memphis (4-1/53)American (2-0)480/98MEM -3.0HOU 81.7%HOU -23.0
FRIUNLV (4-1/57)MTW (2-0)346/125San Jose St (3-1/67)MTW (1-0)450/117SJST -7.0UNLV 60.7%UNLV -8.0
FRIColorado St (0-4/77)MTW (0-0)842/15Nevada (2-3/120)MTW (0-1)538/92NEV -3.5NEV 58.8%NEV -6.5
FRIHarvard (2-1/169)Ivy (1-0)692/190Cornell (2-1/192)Ivy (0-1)333/257NLHARV 52.4%HARV -2.5
12:00Louisville (2-3/62)ACC (0-3)625/13Virginia (2-3/37)ACC (0-2)720/3LOU -3.0LOU -56.2%LOU -7.0
12:00Arkansas (3-2/46)SEC (1-2)680/19Mississippi St (4-1/16)SEC (1-1)640/18MSST -8.0MSST 87.5%MSST -27.5
12:00Buffalo (2-3/78)MAC (2-0)760/27Bowling Green (2-3/82)MAC (1-0)640/33BUFF -2.0BUFF 55.2%BUFF -4.0
12:00Michigan (5-0/3)Big Ten (2-0)400/90Indiana (3-2/60)Big Ten (1-1)640/36MICH -22.5MICH 94.0%MICH -32.5
12:00Missouri (2-3/66)SEC (0-2)708/11Florida (3-2/50)SEC (0-2)609/24FLA -11.0FLA 67.8%FLA -13.0
12:00TCU (4-0/13)Big 12 (1-0)444/114Kansas (5-0/12)Big 12 (2-0)500/66TCU -7.5KAN 55.7%KAN -4.0
12:00E Michigan (3-2/114)MAC (0-1)360/126W Michigan (2-3/127)MAC (1-0)542/100WMI -4.5EMI 61.2%EMI -8.0
12:00Purdue (3-2/31)Big Ten (1-1)680/5Maryland (4-1/24)Big Ten (1-1)480/51MARY -3.0MARY 82.1%MARY -23.5
12:00Tennessee (4-0/10)SEC (1-0)450/87LSU (4-1/18)SEC (2-0)625/29TENN -3.0TENN 89.1%TENN -28.5
12:00Texas (3-2/48) – NBig 12 (1-1)600/34Oklahoma (3-2/43) – NBig 12 (0-2)600/28TEX -7.0TEX 55.9%TEX -4.5
12:00Gardner Webb (1-4/195)Big South (0-0)800/135Robert Morris (0-4/233)Big South (0-0)526/196NLRM 55.1%RM -3.5
12:00Dartmouth (1-2/240)Ivy (0-1)667/226Yale (2-1/172)Ivy (1-0)615/200NLYALE 58.0%YALE -6.0
12:00Fordham (4-1/155)PAT (1-0)304/237Lehigh (1-4/250)PAT (1-0)565/210NLFORD 60.5%FORD -7.5
12:00Valparaiso (2-2/234)Pioneer (1-0)364/246Presbyterian (1-4/237)Pioneer (0-2)619/184NLVAL 55.7%VAL -4.0
12:30Princeton (3-0/136)Ivy (1-0)500/238Lafayette (2-3/230)PAT (1-0)545/205NLPRIN 63.2%PRIN -9.5
1:00Marist (1-3/260)Pioneer (1-1)353/247Stetson (3-1/162)Pioneer (1-0)625/206NLSTET 59.5%STET -7.0
1:00Dayton (3-1/163)Pioneer (1-0)154/256Butler (2-2/204)Pioneer (0-1)800/174NLDAY 57.8%DAY -5.5
1:00Wagner (0-4/184)Northeast (0-1)750/133Columbia (2-1/165)Ivy (0-1)417/244NLCOLA 57.9%COLA -5.5
1:00Norfolk St (0-5/210)MEAC (0-0)696/151Morgan St (2-2/199)MEAC (0-0)533/177NLMORG 56.7%MORG -5.0
1:00Albany (1-3/228)CAA (0-1)500/170Monmouth (3-2/176)CAA (1-1)480/222NLMON 57.8%MON -5.5
1:00Merrimack (3-2/178)Northeast (1-0)556/181Duquesne (1-4/225)Northeast (0-1)588/156NLMERR 57.2%MERR -5.0
1:00North Dakota St (4-1/142)MVFC (2-0)348/194Indiana St (1-3/219)MVFC (0-1)579/158NLNDST 61.7%NDST -8.5
1:00Wofford (0-5/227)SoCon (0-2)625/176Samford (4-1/146)SoCon (2-0)565/138NLSAM 62.0%SAM -8.5
1:00Brown (1-2/248)Ivy (0-1)462/239C Connecticut (0-5/246)Northeast (0-2)480/230NLBRO 55.4%BRO -4.0
1:00S Connecticut (NA)NRNRBryant (1-4/258)Big South (0-1)364/231NLNPNP
1:30E Tennessee St (2-3/239)SoCon (0-3)444/224VMI (1-3/214)SoCon (0-1)529/154NLETSU 55.2%ETSU -4.0
2:00Akron (1-4/112)MAC (0-1)625/61Ohio (2-3/94)MAC (0-1)615/47OHIO -11OHIO 58%OHIO -6.0
2:00Ga Southern (3-2/79)SUN (0-1)565/76Georgia St (1-4/125)SUN (0-1)560/71GAST -3.0GASO 66.5%GASO -12.0
2:00Florida A&M (3-2/196)SWAC (2-1)474/258South Carolina St (1-3/211)MEAC (0-0)500/152NLFLAM 56.6%FLAM -5.0
2:00Towson (2-3/224)CAA (0-2)522/189Elon (4-1/151)CAA (2-0)440/182NLELON 61.4%ELON -8.5
2:00Penn (3-0/135)Ivy (1-0)308/250Georgetown (1-4/253)PAT (0-2)500/223)NLPENN 64.1%PENN -10.5
2:00Davidson (4-1/148)Pioneer (2-0)533/187St Thomas (3-1/158)Pioneer (1-0)444/233NLDAV 57.2%DAV -5.5
2:00Maine (0-4/232)CAA (0-1)400/195Hampton (3-1/159)CAA (0-1)400/214NLHAMP 59.8%HAMP -7.0
2:00Grambling St (1-4/249)SWAC (0-3)522/207Alabama A&M (1-4/231)SWAC (1-1)542/173NLALAM 55.1%ALAM 3.5
2:00Furman (3-2/157)SoCon (1-1)579/136Citadel (1-3/226)SoCon (1-1)579/166NLFUR 57.3%FUR -5.5
2:00San Diego (1-3/261)Pioneer (0-1)308/251Drake (0-5/241)Pioneer (0-2)611/217NLDRA 55.0%DRA -3.5
2:30South Florida (1-4/130)American (0-1)520/88Cincinnati (4-1/39)American (1-0)458/108CIN -27.5CIN 92.1%CIN -30.5
3:00Jackson St (4-0/117)SWAC (3-0)211/258Alabama St (3-2/166)SWAC (1-1)500/141NLJACK 65.6%JACK -11.5
3:00S Illinois (3-2/170)MVFC (2-0)583/178Missouri St (2-3/206)MVFC (0-2)600/157NLSILL 56.9%SILL -5.0
3:00Northwestern St (2-3/242)Southland (2-0)333/229E Illinois (1-3/254)OVFC (1-0)368/240NLNWST 55.3%NWST -4.0
3:00Tennessee Tech (1-3/177)OVFC (0-1)737/132SEMO (4-1/152)OVFC (1-0)417/169NLSEMO 61.7%SEMO -8.5
3:00Texas Southern (1-4/229)SWAC (1-2)560/161Ark Pine Bluff (2-3/198)SWAC (0-2)667/198NLAPB 55.7%APB -4.0
3:00South Dakota (1-3/197)MVFC (0-1)737/140South Dakota St (4-1/149)MVFC (2-0)333/202NLSDKS 62.5%SDKS -9.0
3:00Tennessee Martin (3-2/174)OVFC (2-0)348/203Murray St (0-5/213)OVFC (0-1)560/155NLUTM 57.6%UTM -5.5
3:30Liberty (4-1/49)IND (0-0)478/103UMASS (1-4/133)IND (0-0)500/93LIB -24.5LIB 81.7%LIB -23.0
3:30Texas Tech (3-2/56)Big 12 (1-1)520/37Oklahoma St (4-0/14)Big 12 (1-0)350/119OKST -9.5OKST 63.2%OKST -9.5
3:30East Carolina (3-2/93)American (1-1)435/120Tulane (4-1/36)American (1-0)478/104TULN -3.0TULN 78.7%TULN -21.0
3:30Virginia Tech (2-3/121)ACC (1-1)400/101Pittsburgh (3-2/73)ACC (0-1)542/81PITT -14.5PITT 69.1%PITT -14.0
3:30Ball St (2-3/132)MAC (1-1)417/112C Michigan (1-4/84)MAC (0-1)696/25CMI -7.5BLST 57.6%BLST -5.5
3:30Middle Tennessee (3-2/96)C-USA (0-1)429/115UAB (2-2/95)C-USA (0-1)550/80UAB -9.0UAB 58.1%UAB -6.0
3:30Tulsa (2-3/89)American (0-1)667/45Navy (1-3/98)American (1-1)800/44TULS -6.0TULS 57.3%TULS -5.5
3:30Kent St (2-3/87)MAC (1-0)560/41Miami OH (2-3/119)MAC (0-1)458/91KTST -5.5MIAO 55.1%MIAO -3.5
3:30Toledo (3-2/100)MAC (1-0)360/121N Illinois (1-4/131)MAC (0-1)500/89TOL -5.5TOL 65.6%TOL -11.5
3:30Wisconsin (2-3/63)Big Ten (0-2)640/10Northwestern (1-4/76)Big Ten (1-1)640/17WISC -10.0WISC 59.1%WISC -6.5
3:30Utah (4-1/26)Pac 12 (2-0)480/85UCLA (5-0/11)Pac 12 (2-0)520/72UTAH -4.5UCLA 51.3UCLA -1.5
3:30Auburn (3-2/42)SEC (1-1)750/12Georgia (5-0/2)SEC (2-0)600/42UGA -30.0UGA 99.9%UGA -36.5
3:30Stony Brook (0-4/238)CAA (0-3)550/211New Hampshire (3-2/181)CAA (3-0)500/201NLNH 57.9%NH -6.0
3:30Delaware (5-0/110)CAA (3-0)522/188William & Mary (4-1/144)CAA (1-1)375/220NLDEL 62.0%DEL -9.0
4:00Mississippi (5-0/4)SEC (1-0)520/63Vanderbilt (3-2/55)SEC (0-1)600/30MISS -18.5MISS 86.3%MISS -27.5
4:00UNC (4-1/35)ACC (1-0)458/111Miami FL (2-2/91)ACC (0-0)500/94MIAF -3.5UNC 68.3%UNC -10.5
4:00Washington (4-1/28)Pac 12 (1-1)478/54Arizona St (1-4/61)Pac 12 (0-2)708/8WASH -14.0WASH 92.2%WASH -31.0
4:00Duke (4-1/23)ACC (1-0)480/52Georgia Tech (2-3/51)ACC (1-1)792/6DUKE -3.0DUKE 91.8%DUKE -29.5
4:00Ohio St (5-0/5)Big Ten (2-0)500/95Michigan St (2-3/71)Big Ten (0-2)600/20OHST -26.5OHST 92.2%OHST -31.0
4:00Charleston Southern (0-4/205)Big South (0-0)650/144Campbell (2-2/187)Big South (0-0)632/159NLCAMP 57.0%CAMP -5.0
4:00Idaho St (0-5/218)Big Sky (0-2)600/163Montana St (4-1/150)Big Sky (2-0)333/192NLMTST 62.5%MTST -9.0
4:00W Carolina (3-2/175)SoCon (1-1)348/213Mercer (4-1/141)SoCon (2-0)292/204NLMERC 60.7%MERC -8.0
4:00Bucknell (0-4/252) – NPAT (0-1)316/252Holy Cross (5-0/116) – NPAT (1-0)476/191NLHC 70.0%HC -14.5
4:00Cal Poly (1-3/255)Big Sky (0-1)438/235N Arizona (1-4/251)Big Sky (0-2)435/219NLNAZ 55.0%NAZ -3.5
5:00Illinois St (1-3/219)MVFC (0-1)579/158N Iowa (2-3/216)MVFC (2-1)522/179NLILST 55.8%ILST -4.0
5:00TAM Commerce (2-2/221)Southland (0-0)375/242SELA (3-2/173)Southland (1-0)308/215NLSELA 57.1%SELA -5.0
5:00Southern (2-2/194)SWAC (1-1)467/162Prairie View (3-2/183)SWAC (3-0)520/208NLPV 56.4%PV -4.5
5:00Lindenwood (2-2/208)OVFC (0-2)643/198C Arkansas (2-3/188)ASUN (1-0)577/139NLLIN 55.3%LIN -4.0
5:00Lamar (0-5/245)Southland (0-2)522/227Incarnate Word (4-1/145)Southland (1-1)480/186NLIW 62.4%IW -9.0
5:00Lincoln CA (NA)NRNRPortland St (1-3/185)Big Sky (1-1)684/134NLNRNR
6:00W Kentucky (3-2/86)C-USA (1-0)520/113UTSA (3-2/102)C-USA (1-1)417/118UTSA -4.5WKY 57.4%WKY -5.5
6:00N Alabama (1-3/259)ASUN (0-0)615/236Kennesaw St (1-3/212)ASUN (0-1)619/147NLKNST 55.5%KNST -4.0
6:00North Dakota (3-2/191)MVFC (3-2/191)400/225Youngstown St (2-2/189)MVFC (0-1)632/149NLNDAK 55.5%NDAK -4.0
6:00Bethune Cookman (1-3/256)SWAC (1-1)278/241Tennessee St (0-4/223)OVFC (0-0)615/168NLBETH 55.1%BETH -3.5
7:00Air Force (4-1/52)MTW (1-1)320/130Utah St (1-4/83)MTW (0-1)760/23AF -10.0AF 85.2%AF -25.5
7:00James Madison (4-0/17)SUN (2-0)400/123Arkansas St (2-3/97)SUN (1-1)560/56JMU -11.5JMU 99.9%JMU -42.5
7:00App St (3-2/72)SUN (1-1)652/58Texas St (2-3/118)SUN (0-1)591/86APST -19.0APST 64.1%APST -10.5
7:00UCONN (2-4/99)IND (0-0)552/46FIU (2-2/143)C-USA (0-1)333/131CONN – 5.0FIU 58.9%FIU -6.5
7:00UTEP (3-3/123)C-USA (1-1)394/116LA Tech (1-3/88)C-USA (0-0)650/32LATC -3.0UTEP 59.7%UTEP -7.0
7:00Wyoming (3-3/85)MTW (1-1)655/48New Mexico (2-3/104)MTW (0-2)560/62WYO -3.5WYO 57.1%WYO -5.0
7:00Southern Miss (2-2/92)SUN (0-0)632/68Troy (3-2/70)SUN (1-1)600/49TROY -6.5TROY 60.2%TROY -7.5
7:00Alcorn St (2-2/190)SWAC (1-0)450/160Mississippi Valley (0-5/222)SWAC (0-2)737/167NLACST 55.8%ACST -4.0
7:00Nicholls (0-5/209)Southland (0-1)654/150Houston Christian (2-2/207)Southland (1-0)316/232NLHOCH 56.7%HOCH -5.0
7:00Abilene Christian (4-1/153)WAC (1-0)300/228Steph F Austin (2-3/236)WAC (0-1)556/212NLABCH 59.7%ABCH -7.0
7:30Washington St (4-1/32)Pac 12 (1-1)500/82Southern Cal (5-0/8)Pac 12 (3-0)391/107SCAL -13.0SCAL 78.7%SCAL -21.0
7:30BYU (4-1/47) – NIND (0-0)462/96Notre Dame (2-2/33) – NIND (0-0)750/2ND -3.5BYU 76.4%BYU -19.5
7:30Kansas St (4-1/25)Big 12 (2-0)542/53Iowa St (3-2/34)Big 12 (0-2)680/9KSST -2.0KSST 75.6%KSST -18.5
7:30Iowa (3-2/41)Big Ten (1-1)680/21Illinois (4-1/19)Big Ten (1-1)538/75ILL -3.5ILL 64.2%ILL -10.5
7:30Clemson (5-0/7)ACC (3-0)583/40Boston College (2-3/105)ACC (1-2)458/70CLEM -21.0CLEM 99.9%CLEM -36.5
7:30South Carolina (3-2/68)SEC (0-2)440/67Kentucky (4-1/22)SEC (1-1)542/38KENT -10.0KENT 85.2%KENT -25.5
7:30Army (1-3/128)IND (0-0)600/79Wake Forest (4-1/15)ACC (1-1)708/7WF -17.0WF 98.5%WF -35.5
8:00Texas A&M (3-2/59)SEC (1-1)609/43Alabama (5-0/1)SEC (2-0)480/64ALA -24.0ALA 99.9%ALA -38.0
8:00Florida St (4-1/29)ACC (2-1)520/55NC St (4-1/20)ACC (0-1)520/35NCST -3.0NCST 58.7%NCST -6.5
8:00Coastal Carolina (5-0/30)SUN (2-0)333/127ULM (2-3/107)SUN (1-1)480/65CCAR -13.5CCAR 99.3%CCAR -35.0
8:00Tarleton (3-1/156)WAC (0-0)385/258S Utah (3-2/171)WAC (1-0)458/165NLSUT 56.9%SUT -5.0
8:00E Washington (1-3/193)Big Sky (0-1)579/137Weber St (4-0/115)Big Sky (1-0)200/254NLWEB 70.4%WEB -15.0
9:00Oregon (4-1/21)Pac 12 (2-0)652/16Arizona (3-2/69)Pac 12 (1-1)520/60ORE -13.5ORE 75.6%ORE -18.5
9:00N Colorado (2-3/244)Big Sky (1-1)320/234Sacramento St (4-0/126)Big Sky (1-0)222/248NLSAC 68.9%SAC -14.0
9:45Fresno St (1-3/109)MTW (0-0)550/59Boise St (3-2/90)MTW (2-0)500/109BOST -7.5BOST 68.1%BOST -13.0
10:30Hawaii (1-4/129)MTW (0-0)500/78San Diego St (2-3/113)MTW (0-1)520/77SDST -21.5SDST 58.0%SDST -6.0
11:00Oregon St (3-2/38)Pac 12 (0-2)708/14Stanford (1-3/54)Pac 12 (0-3)700/4ORST -7.0ORST 68.6%ORST -13.5