It’s Thursday night and football is here! There are 2 games tonight with the FCS teams Jackson State (245) traveling to Texas to meet Prairie View (216) and undefeated SMU (19) will bus/fly/something 239ish miles to meet Houston (91). It’s time to start thinking about what games to watch. The Mustangs and Cougars matchup is intriguing mostly to see if SMU can keep rolling (69.1% of the time, yes, yes they will).
But that is not the most intriguing pre-Saturday game. Southern Cal is trying to ruin any chance the Pac 12 has (there are only 2 1-loss teams in Oregon (11)and Utah). Both SoCal and Utah (15) have 1 loss, but Utah’s loss was to the Trojans. If USC-West can win out or Utah takes another tumble, that could be a problem. First, they already have three losses against BYU (130), Washington (50), and Notre Dame (12). Second, to win out they have to beat Oregon in a few weeks which would give them 2 losses. It’s not good for the conference’s playoff chances but they will do their best to best Colorado Friday night. The Buffalos (83) haven’t had the season they wanted, but can help out their western neighbor (that’s Utah for those who don’t have a map handy) by taking SoCal out of the equation. The Vegas line is high at SC-West -13.5 but, while the GCR picks them to win, it will be closer at 53.8%
Now, on to Saturday. The early games have a couple of options, but the most interesting is Wisconsin (14) at Ohio State (1). The Buckeyes have been #1 for weeks – highly unusual in the GCR. They look and feel like the real thing. There’s been no annual let down game that have haunted them over and over again. The Badgers are coming off what some have called an upset. *oo8h98w g3q5 5y3j Sorry, had to stop laughing so I could type correctly. Illinois (101), 30 point underdogs kicked a 39-yd FG as time expired to really put a hurt on Wisconsin who face Iowa (21) next week and play at undefeated Minnesota (10) to end the regular season cannot lose this cross-divisional game. They had given up only 29 points in the first 6 games and allowed 24 against the Illini. Ohio State has done what it’s supposed to do and knows, from past experience, that relaxing is not a good thing. The line for this game is Buckeyes -14.5, but I expect a little more than that with a 68.4% chance to win.
The midafternoon games are a bunch of fun ones. The game of the week, though, goes to Auburn (7) at LSU (2). LSU is a 10.5 point favorite and have to win to stick with Alabama (1) who is playing Arkansas (176). note: >99% of winning that challenge. After mutual bye-weeks next weekend, LSU and Bama fight it out for West (and probably SEC) supremacy. BUT, Auburn only has 1 loss to Florida (3), and could still win the west having the Tide at home in the Iron Bowl. A loss and the Tigers/War Eagle are out of the West, the SEC, and the playoffs – it’s wait until next year time. LSU could probably survive a loss, if they can win at the Elephant’s house in 2 weeks, but that’s a lot of pressure. Both teams need this win and I expect an absolute slug fest. In the end, I think Vegas has it about right at 65.5% Yellow and Purple Tigers to win.
There are two runners up that will have no impact on the playoffs, postseason, or pretty much anyone not on the teams, lives. But they are interesting in their own way. First, Connecticut (223) at Massachusetts (231) are both FBS teams! They are 31st and 23rd from the bottom of all of Division I. Each team is 1-6 looking for crooked number wins. Vegas says the Huskies -10, but the GCR picks the Minutemen failing to lose 60.6%. See, controversy at the bottom. It can happen. On the FCS side, not to be outdone, Bucknell (239) and Lafayette (252), a combined 1-13 in the Patriot League, face off and someone has to win college football games so circle the Leopards to win their first over the Bison. You have to love alliterative mascots.
One more runner up that is a major game in importance is FCS #1 vs FCS #2: North Dakota State (48) is heading south to play South Dakota State (53). This is a conference game and both of these teams come from strong football schools. Last year the Bison beat the Jackrabbits in the FCS semifinals on the way to their championship. This is a huge game and I hope it’s on TV at home. Don’t let the FCS stigma get in the way, these teams are competitive. ND State is expected to win, but the GCR is going with SD State to hop away with victory 53.0% (btw, that’s just above home field advantage).
The night game is pretty clear and an end to a season’s dream. Michigan (16) is hosting Notre Dame (12). The line is all over the place, but my source says Irish -1.0 who took a close loss between the hedges and, without benefit of a conference championship, have to be perfect going out. Michigan is out of the conference race (not mathematically, but realistically), and are relegated to spoiler. They still can’t afford another loss and have Ohio State and Michigan State later on. A loss here and they could fall to a non-Wolverine type 7-5 season. Know any good coaches that like cold winters? A ton is on this game. I gave it away in the opening sentence, but Michigan knocks the Irish out of playoff discussion 56.3%.
One more runner up in the American Conference. Central Florida (47) and Temple (54) meet in Philadelphia. Both teams have 2 losses including 1 in conference. Especially if SMU wins tonight (0-0 in the first after a great goal line stand by Houston), the loser of this game is in a world of hurt. Vegas likes the Knights -10.5, but the GCR is calling the upset of the week. The Owls take this one 57.5% of the time. The Knights’ reign may be sunsetting.
Speaking of upsets, there are 9 right now. I say that because lines change regularly and sometime switch, like last week. The Notre Dame/Michigan game is like that this week. I’m putting it in because as of now the GCR is calling an upset, but if the line switches to Michigan or pick’em I won’t count it in the record.
| Home | Away | Vegas | GCR% |
| Illinois (101) | Purdue (76) | Pitt-3.5 | Illinois 51.3% |
| W Kentucky (95) | Marshall (62) | IASt-7.0 | W. Ky 50.2% |
| Charlotte (133) | N Texas (120) | Ohio-7.5 | Char 51.6% |
| UMass (231) | UConn (223) | TCU-3.5 | Mass 60.6% |
| C. Michigan (94) | Buffalo (130) | Ind-5.5 | C. Mich 53.1% |
| E Carolina (171) | S Florida (127) | UNC-3.5 | E Car 51.2% |
| Duke (32) | UNC (58) | OU-3.0 | Duke 51.2% |
| Temple (54) | UCF (47) | OKSt-3.5 | Temple 57.7% |
| Michigan (16) | Notre Dame (12) | Rice-4.5 | Mich 56.3% |
That’s it for this week – happy football and I’ll see you Sunday with the latest and greatest GCR ranking. Please comment/question/challenge. I don’t promise to be able to answer all questions, but I’ll do my best. Sometimes I get opinion questions, and I’ll try to answer those as facts based on the GCR data but, if I am opining, I’ll let you know that too. My goal here is for my side of this forum to be unbiased. That does not, in any way, mean that you can’t comment on someone else’s comment – just keep in respectful and G-rated (there are a few kids who read this).
Please invite others to the blog – let’s grow this thing and get some great discussions! Also, if you go to a game, send me pictures – comment that you have one and I’ll send you an address. Thanks, and see you soon,
G
Love the analysis and your prediction on the ND game! Hopefully it will be a good game as Michigan has a tendency to get behind big in the early going. That would be very bad for them here!
Thanks, Jim. It’s an important game that could impact the playoffs.