I started this blog on August 30 with a Welcome to the GCR post. Now 77 days later, it’s time for post number 50. I’m pretty sure I didn’t intend to post this often – in the previous email version of this to 30ish people I had one post per week. I think it’s fallen into a natural rhythm of G’s E’s. In just that short period of time we’ve had over 1460 hits to the page and 129 subscribers, we’ve added an automatic post to both Facebook and Twitter and are getting followers there as well. We’ve added reader pictures from games (just added a new one from Jason Loccisano) and are always hoping for more. If you go to a game, take a picture or 10 and send them to me at grgettys@gmail.com. I’ll post it and give you a credit for it. We’ve heard some great comments and questions from readers that more often than not lead to a different way to analyze the data providing even more insight. I won’t always keep up this pace – there’s not as much going on in the offseason – but it will be year round. A sincere thank you to all of the readers and commenters and contributers that make this blog work and grow. I have spent the last 2 1/2 months trying to figure out what I wanted this blog to be – and we can get there if you can continue to comment, contribute, share, get other to join. First, I’ll tell you what is NOT going to happen. I will not have pop-up ads or banner ads or obviously hidden references to other site ads. Even when we grow to a large enough size that those would be profitable, I’m not doing it. This blog is about a game we love. I’m not averse to making money from the GCR (not that I expect it, but I’d be an idiot, right?), but not via ads for the reader. I have 2 things I want this blog to grow into: first, I’d like to be part of the Massey Composite Rankings – there are 114 computer ranking systems on his list, and it would be nice to be a part of it – and second, my stretch goal is to be whatever today’s word is for syndicated, whether for an online newspaper or sports e-zine so that we can reach an even wider audience. There – so let it be written, so let it be done.
Enough about that stuff, let’s talk about what we came here to talk about. This is a fantastic slate of games this week so let’s jump right in with the upsets followed by the games of the week. Just as a reminder, since I know all of you read every word of all 50 posts (insert sarcasm emoji here), if you see one number after the team, it is their Division I rank and their FBS rank, if you see 2 numbers, the first is their Division I rank (out of 256) and the second is either their FBS rank (out of 130) or their FCS rank (out of 126).
There are 11 picks this week for upsets and some of them made me scratch my head in wonder. Why is the GCR picking Vanderbilt to beat, well, anybody? How is NC State going to rebound from the shellacking Clemson gave them to beat Louisville? And why is Vegas picking Marshall to beat a 1-loss (to Texas [18])? Here is the list for the week.
| Home | Away | Vegas | GCR% |
| Marshall (79/78) | La Tech (50) | Mar-4.5 | LATC 54.2% |
| Temple (61) | Tulane (76/75) | Tulane-5.5 | Temple 64.5% |
| Texas Tech (45) | TCU (110/100) | TCU-3.0 | TXTC 78.1% |
| Auburn (4) | Georgia (10) | UGA-3.0 | Aub 56.1% |
| Vandy (67/66) | Kentucky (69/68) | UK-10.0 | Vandy 56.2% |
| Iowa (19) | Minnesota (9) | Iowa-3.0 | Minn 54.1% |
| Utah St (97/91) | Wyoming (53) | UTST-6.0 | Wyo 62.1% |
| NC State (57) | Louisville (23) | Lou-4.0 | NCST 53.4% |
| Baylor (5) | Oklahoma (21) | OK-10.5 | Baylor 70.8% |
| Oregon St (46) | Arizona St (47) | AZST-2.5 | ORST 58.3% |
| California (32) | Southern Cal (28) | SoCal-6.5 | Cal 54.5% |
This week I picked 9 games to highlight because of importance in the overall picture. First, we’ll start with a game being played right now: North Carolina (51) went north to face Pitt (38). The ACC Coastal is an example of…parity? The best team is 5-2 in the conference which is not bad, I guess. The only other FBS divisions that have don’t have a 1-loss team in conference play (forget about overall record) is the MAC West where Western Michigan is 5-2 and the Mountain West West (yes, that’s the name of it) where San Diego State is 4-2. Granted the only member of the ACC with fewer than 2 conference losses is Clemson (3) which is one of the reasons Clemson is being challenged on SOS. Back to this game. Virginia (28), Virginia Tech (40), and Pitt are all tied for first based on losses. The Panthers lost to UVA earlier in the season and face the Hokies on November 23. The Hokies and Cavaliers will meet up during Rivalry Week. Oh yeah, UNC is trying for its 6th win and bowl eligibility. It looks like the ACC Coastal will come down to the last week. Pitt is favored -4.0 and the GCR has them winning 68.2% of the time. As of this sentence the Panthers have a 17-7 advantage with 9:41 to go in the 2nd.
Tomorrow night there is a similar type game. Certainly not one that will impact the Playoff or major bowls, but one that is important nonetheless. Louisiana Tech (50) at 8-1 will travel to West Virginia to face Marshall (79/78) at 6-3. The Bulldogs are 5-0 in the conference, a game up over Southern Mississippi (82/80) in the C-USA West while the Thundering Herd is a 1/2 game behind Florida Atlantic (52) in the East. This game has a direct impact on the Conference USA championship game in December and should be an interesting one. Vegas has Marshall at home -4.5 while the GCR has La Tech 54.2%
At 12:00 (all times Eastern) Saturday, 7-2 fly under the radar nobody is talking about you Indiana (24) is playing the recently still a bit bruised Penn State (7). Penn State can still win the East by beating Ohio State (2) next week, but they have to win this one to do it. Forget Indiana being better than probably 95% of the country thought they were despite the fact that their record is the same as Wisconsin (11), everything else this year staying the same the Nittany Lions run of Minnesota (9), Indiana, Ohio State makes this game sound very trappish. The fact that the Hoosiers can play some ball (and not just the round kind) puts this game as risky for Penn State. The line is Penn State -14.0 and the GCR is PSU 64.2% – it may be closer than that. Nittany Lions live to face off against the Buckeyes next week.
At 1:00, we have our FCS game of the week. In the Southern Conference two long-time rivals meet both with 1 loss in the conference. Furman (112/11) will drive the 37.1 miles from Greenville to Spartanburg to face Wofford (92/5). Back when I was at Presbyterian, when we were an NAIA team, this rivalry was big for the state of South Carolina. It hasn’t slowed down. I know South Carolina/Clemson is bigger, but don’t tell that to these fans. This is another fight between good teams who will very likely make the FCS playoffs, but the seeding is critical for home field advantage. This is a grudge match that the Terriers (aka Wofford) will win 59.2% virtually locking up the conference.
There is an embarrassment of riches in the midday games. I picked 2 that will have potential playoff consideration. First, in the ACC, Wake Forest (22) is fighting the Clemson (3) machine. Clemson’s average score this year is 45-11. Their SOS is 108th in the nation (opponent’s have a .484 winning pct) and they cannot afford a single let down. At this point, if they don’t blow out the opponent, the run the risk of the committee dropping them a spot. Wake Forest was the cinderella at the ball before losing a basketball game to Louisville (23) 62-59 in regulation and last week’s drubbing by Virginia Tech (40). Vegas has given up on the Demon Deacons with Clemson -34, Clemson’s average score differential. The GCR agrees that the Tigers will go to 11-0, but it’s “only” 72.7% so it may be a little bit closer than 34.
Next we have Georgia (10) at Auburn (4). The War Tigers surprised all of us with that 4th spot with 2 losses. In order for a 2-loss Auburn team to get in, a dozen things have to happen (see Sunday night’s blog for that list). Georgia however is more highly favored by the committee than the GCR. Auburn has played the second most difficult schedule in the country while UGA is at 63rd. Georgia is one of only 2 Division I schools yet to give up 100 points (Ohio State (2) being the other). To be honest, my gut tells me Vegas is right when they pick UGA -3.0 on the road, primarily because the Tigers have a good defense and a medium SEC offense while the Bulldogs have a top 3 defense and an equally medium SEC offense. I see a defensive ball game (watch it be 70-65 just to create a psychotic break) – my gut says UGA will win a close game, but the GCR calls Auburn 56.1% and I’m going with that since my gut can’t look at every game at the same time. I’m calling the upset.
The other big one in the afternoon, is Minnesota (9) at Iowa (19). Some friends and I were talking and, while Iowa is rarely seen as a trap game for anyone, there could be some…relief…over-confidence…something that may make Minnesota play down a bit. They played the game that had to last week to hand Penn State (7) its first loss. They’ll have to do it again in the not so friendly Hawkeye confines. Vegas is saying Iowa -3.0 (which is the “value” of home field, generally), but the GCR is bullish on the Golden Gophers 54.1%
In the evening the first of two Oklahoma (21)/Baylor (5) games is happening. Why two, you ask? Because only Texas (18) has a legitimate shot of being in the top 2 of the Big 12 and playing for the championship. Baylor is 6-0 in conference, the Sooners 5-1, and Texas 4-2. The odds are against the Longhorns who have already lost to Oklahoma in getting there, so first of two. If one team wins both, that team is going to be in strong consideration for a Playoff spot, assuming no other losses. Baylor would be undefeated and Oklahoma with one oops loss. This game is really for the right for the Big 12 to be in the show. Pure and simple. Championship Game Part I. In the upset of the week, Vegas has Oklahoma -10.5 while the GCR has Baylor at a whopping 70.8%.
Finally in the Pac-12 Southern Cal (26) is traveling north to visit California (32). Cal is out of the Pac-12 picture and already eliminated from winning the division. But the Trojans are 5-2 in the South with the tie-breaker over Utah (13) who is 5-1. If USC-West can win out in the conference and Utah slips up even once, there could be a 4 (or maybe 5) loss team playing against Oregon (12) in the conference championship. The Ducks should clinch a spot this week but the Pac-12 needs a good championship game to get their winner in the Playoff. If Utah and Oregon play as 1-loss teams, the winner looks really good and maybe gets a chance especially if certain other teams fail. But a 1-loss team playing a 4 (or 5) loss team doesn’t have that same luster. Vegas is keeping the Trojan hope alive -6.5, but the GCR says the Bears win 54.5%
That’s it for number 50. Buffalo (84/82) is beating Kent State (121/106) 27-20 in the 4th (GCR has Buffalo 52.6%) and Pittsburgh is leading North Carolina 17-10 in the 3rd.
Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games and relax. Thank you again for helping me get this blog off the ground and please keep doing what you are doing. Let’s see if we can get more readers – more people commenting and challenging – more people sending game pictures. It’s been a lot of fun so far. – Thanks, G
