Hello oh great and wonderful fans. Like most of us, I’m rejoining my day job today, but before I do we need to talk about today’s pair of games. I have to say, I’m glad the last 2 days are over. A 1-3 mark yesterday and a 2-3 the day before brought the predictions to a respectable but reduced 23-11. Disappointing for sure. But today is a new day and the first working day of the year, so the future is bright.
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As we are winding down the bowl season, let’s take a look at the standings. There are 3 logical ways to rank the conference bowl records. The first is by wins – whichever conference has more wins did the best. There’s a purity in that but what if the Sun Belt won all of its 5 games and the ACC (who has the most bowl games) was 6-5? Which conference had the better bowl season? I don’t use that one. The second is by winning percentage. I like this one ok, but the one I use is the net wins. Take each conference’s total wins minus the total losses. The tie-breaker is number of wins. If there is still a tie – it’s a tie. (I thought about throwing point differential in there at that point, but that will be for the final standing only). In any of the 3 methods, the SEC is leading. If we use method 1, the ACC could tie if the SEC loses their next 2 games and the ACC wins out. If method three, the Mountain West could win outright if the SEC loses both games and Nevada beats Ohio tomorrow. With that, here are the current standings:
| Pos | League | Record | Pct | To Go |
| 1 | SEC | 6-2 | 750 | 2 |
| 2 | MTW | 4-2 | 667 | 1 |
| 3 | Pac-12 | 4-3 | 571 | 0 |
| 4 | Indies | 2-1 | 667 | 0 |
| 5 | Big 10 | 4-4 | 500 | 1 |
| 6 | Sun | 2-2 | 500 | 1 |
| 7 | ACC | 4-5 | 444 | 2 |
| 8 | C-USA | 3-4 | 429 | 1 |
| 9T | AAC | 2-3 | 400 | 2 |
| 9T | MAC | 2-3 | 400 | 2 |
| 11 | Big 12 | 1-5 | 167 | 0 |
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Before we get into the 2 games today, an update for comparison. The Power 5 average OffEff is now 114.1, DefEff is 125.5, and average Total Rank of 47.6. The Group of 5 is now 99.1, 102.3, 106.9, respectively.
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The first game, kicking off at 3:00 (all times Eastern) from Alabama, is the Birmingham Bowl featuring Boston College (44, 6-6, 5th in the ACC Atlantic) and Cincinnati (19, 10-3, American Runner up). Neither team beat a top 25 team (BC 0-2, Cincy 0-1) and both played 7 good (6+win) teams. The Bearcats played 4 great (10+win) teams including Memphis twice and Ohio State. The Eagles only played 2 (Notre Dame and Clemson). BC played the 9th most difficult schedule facing opponents that went 82-70 while the Bearcats opponents had more wins (93-73), but were mostly Group of 5 teams (see comparison paragraph above). Of note, in the 2020 formula (see previous posts for more information), Boston College is 47th (all 2020-formula rankings are pre-bowl games) and the Bearcats drop to 34th. When BC has the ball they will bring an average offense (113) to an above average defense (141). The question in this game is can Cincinnati take advantage of BCs porous defense (89) with their G5 average (101) offense. Vegas thinks so with Cincinnati -7.5. I think so as well, or at least enough to get the job done. Cincinnati 63.0%
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The nightcap, or the Taxslayer Bowl, aka the Gator Bowl, kicking off at 7:00 from Jacksonville where my good friend Jason lives, pits Tennessee (72, 7-5, 3rd in the SEC East) against Indiana (22, 8-4, 4th in the Big 10 East). In the 2020 formula Tennessee jumps to 37th and the Hoosiers drop to 28th. Both teams were 0-3 against the top 25. Indiana only played 4 good teams (2 of them were great) and played what can only be described as a pathetic schedule. Their opponents were 65-84, a .436 winning percentage. The Volunteers, on the other hand, played the 20th most difficult schedule facing 10 good and 3 great teams. Combined their foes were 90-64 (.584). The Hoosier offense was barely above average at a 119 OffEff and will face a barely above average Tennessee defense (130). The same question is the key to this game. Can Tennessee’s anemic offense (102) score against a significantly below average Indiana defense (107). Vegas says yes at Tennessee -2.0. The GCR says not really. I think Indiana rolls 70.5%
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That’s it. Tune in tonight or in the morning for an update and a prediction for the Idaho Potato Bowl – you don’t want to miss that. Send in your comments, feedback, questions, and please share with others so that we can continue to grow.
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Thanks, G
