G’s Expectation or The FCS Championship Game

Hello everyone. It’s great to be back at the blog after taking a couple of days off to recoup and research. Before we get into today’s game, let’s talk about the off-season schedule. During the season, most weeks had 4 posts, depending on my travel schedule. During the bowl season, there was a bunch of looking at the upcoming games. After Monday’s FBS championship game, there will be the final ranking or G’s Evaluation of 2019-2020. Following that, I’ll post, roughly, weekly as some of the analysis from feedback is completed. I’ll also try to make sense of coaching changes, conference changes and new Division I schools, and other things leading up to a mid-spring look at the toughest schedules for next season. I’m hoping that will make the next 8 months or so go by really quickly so we can watch football again.

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But, let’s not get maudlin too soon: there are two more games. Today’s game (12:00 Eastern) is the highest recognized college football championship game acknowledged by the NCAA (they have not bought on to the current FBS 4-team plan as they did not endorse the BCS 2-team plan before that). The FCS plays a 24-team tournament. Conference winners from the Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pioneer, Patriot, Southern, and Southland and 14 others are selected by the committee. (The Ivy, SWAC, and MEAC conferences elect not to participate, although they would receive bids if they changed their minds). The top 8 teams (not necessarily conference champions) receive byes in the first round. The first round opponents are selected, as much as possible, so that the visiting team doesn’t have to travel very far. It’s not a NCAA Basketball type thing, but a bit closer to the NITs. Home teams are selected (and yes, it is a true home game), the nearest visiting team is matched up and that’s your round 1 games. The winners of round 1 become the visiting teams in round 2 vs the bye teams, again, placed by proximity as much as possible. The quarter and semi-finals are similarly done with the higher seeded team being the home team and travel minimized as much as possible among the lower surviving seeds, although with fewer teams still playing the distances increase. Today’s final is the first neutral site game in the playoffs kicking off in Frisco, Texas.

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North Dakota State, the Bison, have a storied history. 15 national championships including 7 of the last 9. As defending champions, the Bison did what they needed to do going 15-0 (GCR rank 105 overall, 12th in the FCS). They dominated most teams with an average score of 38-12. They have the 5th best DefEff in the country (all D-I) at 210 and the 13th best OffDef at 145. As a reminder, the efficiency ratings are a comparison of how this team did against its opponents compared to how the opponents other foes did against them. Scores above 100 are better than others. You would expect teams in championship games not only to have good records but to show domination compared to others. Their closest games were against rival South Dakota State (109) where they won 23-16 and in the semi final against Illinois State (128) 9-3. Their highest ranked opponent was Northern Iowa (102) who they beat soundly, 46-14. All 3 of those teams were in the playoffs this year. They played 9 good teams (6+wins) and 4 great (10+) ones. Teams they’ve played so far had a cumulative 98-96 record. The Big Sky champions overall SOS was 218th out of 256 (88th in the FCS).

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The Dukes of…James Madison University (67th overall and #1 in the FCS) are 14-1 this season. They have 2 championships in their past, in 2004 and 2016. In 2017, they faced these same Bison and lost 17-13, failing to win back to back titles. In an exact inverse of their opponents, the Dukes have the 5th best OffEFf in the nation at 157 and the 13th best DefEff at 173. Their one loss came against a Power 5 team, West Virginia (63), by a score of 20-13, in week 1. Their best win came against Monmouth (92), the Big South champion in the playoffs, romping past the Hawks 66-21. Their closest win was a near major upset to 5-7 Stony Brook 45-38 mid-season. Overall, their opponents to date amassed 96 wins against 91 losses, and as the Colonial was not as strong, overall, as the Big Sky this year, their SOS was 227 overall, 97 in the FCS.

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I don’t think we could have hand-picked a better game for today. These teams compliment each other, but are both strong in every aspect of the game. I’m looking forward to watching this one on ABC. If you have never watched an FCS game, take the time. These, granted, are the best of the best and are closely matched. Vegas thinks so as the favorite has changed. North Dakota State opened as 1.5 point underdogs, but are now the favorites -1.5. In the 2020 season formula, JMU moves slightly up to 63rd, 4th in the FCS (only the Bison, Yale, and Dartmouth are better), while State rockets to 50th overall and best in the FCS. The 2020 formula says North Dakota State will win its 8th title in 10 years 55.3%. But, this is still the 2019 season so the official prediction is, in a slight upset, the Dukes avenge the 2017 loss and win 61.1%.

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Either way, it’s going to be a fun game to watch. That’s it for today. Tune in Sunday night for the analysis for the FBS championship game.

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Thanks, G