G’s Expectations or The Games Are Getting Hot!

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 610, also known as the games of March 12th. We had one women’s team win their conference and punch their NCAA ticket. Congratulations Idaho of the Big Sky Conference. The men had three tickets punched: Idaho (Big Sky Conference), Lehigh (Patriot League), and McNeese (Southland Conference). Congratulations to all of them.

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We keep meaning to write this, but G is getting old and we forget. We use the word “tourney” to describe conference championships. We use the word “tournament” to describe the post-conference title championships (women-NCAA, NIT, WBIT, and men-NCAA, NIT, College Basketball Crown, CBI). The only reason for this is clarity of which type of tournament we are discussing. The words have identical meanings IRL. Tourney is less formal, and while we would never belittle the conference championships, we use that less formal term for them and the more formal tournament for the national titles. Hope that makes sense.

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Today we have 68 games between the women and men, but only one Final – the women’s Southland title. We almost named this post “or Quarterfinal Day” as there are 42 games at that stage. Let’s check them all out.

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Yesterday, the GCR was just 12-6 (.667) predicting the women’s games giving us a total of 79-22 (.782). 18 of the 24 games today have predictions. As a reminder, if the GCR metrics “Score” and “RPIF” agree on a winner, that team will be listed in the Prediction column below. If one of the metrics favors team A while the other metric favors Team B, we list “NO PRED”. So far, reviewing those games, there is no likelihood of one of the metrics being more accurate than the other, when they disagree. While we would prefer to have a prediction for every game, the nearly 50/50 ratio for those “disagreement” games lets us know we are using NO PRED correctly. Here are all the women’s games today.

CONFRoundGame (All Times Eastern)TipoffPrediction
AmericanQFNorth Texas (18-13/162) / Tulsa (19-11/184)1:00NO PRED
AmericanQFUTSA (15-15/210) / South Florida (20-11/85)3:30South Florida
Big WestQFFullerton (18-13/164) / Hawaii (20-10/83)3:00Hawaii
Big WestQFUC Riverside (11-20/253) / UC Davis (22-9/73)5:30UC Davis
C-USAQFLiberty (17-12/126) / Sam Houston (18-11/99)12:30NO PRED
C-USAQFMissouri St (19-12/143) / Mid Tenn (16-14/185)3:00Missouri St
CoastalR2NC A&T (12-17/213) / William & Mary (16-13/175)12:00W&M
CoastalR2Wilmington (7-23/325) / Monmouth (19-10/101)2:30Monmouth
CoastalR2Hofstra (8-21/305) / Towson (17-13/157)6:00Towson
CoastalR2Hampton (10-20/269) / Elon (15-15/194)8:30Elon
MEACQFNC Central (9-19/297) / Coppin St (9-22/308)12:00NO PRED
MEACQFMorgan St (5-25/347) / Norfolk St (16-13/181)2:00Norfolk St
Missouri ValleyR1Indiana St (9-21/315) / S Illinois (10-19/293)4:30NO PRED
Missouri ValleyR1Evansville (7-24/335) / IL Chicago (14-17/239)7:00IL Chicago
Missouri ValleyR1Valparaiso (0-31/363) / Drake (11-19/264)9:30Drake
NortheastSFLong Island (20-10/201) / Mercyhurst (13-15/242)7:00NO PRED
NortheastSFLe Moyne (12-20/295) / Fair Dickins (28-4/92)7:00Fair Dickins
PatriotSFArmy (24-6/70) / Holy Cross (21-9/104)6:00NO PRED
PatriotSFLehigh (16-13/174) / Navy (22-7/82)7:00Navy
SWACQFJackson St (12-18/282) / Southern (16-13/189)11:00amSouthern
SWACQFGrambling (13-18/251) / Alabama St (15-14/191)5:30Alabama St
SouthlandFINALSteph F Austin (24-9/91) / McNeese (28-4/29)5:00McNeese
WACQFTarleton (13-16/211) / Utah Valley (16-13/163)3:00Utah Valley
WACQFArlington (11-20/263) / S Utah (19-11/115)5:30S Utah

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The men have the lion’s share of games today as well. Yesterday, the GCR was 21-12 (.636) picking the winner bringing the total to 74-39 (.655). The men have produced a lower correct rate every day of the post-season. We are not exactly sure why that is. Even a few years ago, we would have said that the men have more parity than the women, but that has changed a bit. Surely, those teams at the very top in both leagues are substantially better than the next tier, but the next tier is growing larger for the women every year. The other thing to remember is that statistics is not a short-term or reactive type thing. We have a few days of data – certainly not enough to react to by changing formulae or approach. Just an interesting, we hope, observation. Here are the men’s games today.

CONFRoundGame (All Times Eastern)TipoffPrediction
A10R2Geo Wash (17-14/164) / Fordham (17-14/211)11:30amGeo Wash
A10R2St Bonaventure (16-16/200) / George Mason (23-8/56)2:00George Mason
A10R2Rhode Island (16-15/190) / Duquesne (17-14/181)5:00NO PRED
A10R2Loyola Chicago (9-23/334) / Davidson (19-12/129)7:30Davidson
ACCQFNC St (20-12/51) / Virginia (27-4/9)12:00Virginia
ACCQFLouisville (23-9/28) / Miami FL (24-7/33)2:30Louisville
ACCQFFlorida St (18-14/85) / Duke (29-2/2)7:00Duke
ACCQFClemson (23-9/39) / North Carolina (24-7/10)9:30North Carolina
AmericanR2Tulane (18-14/155) / Charlotte (15-16/224)7:00Tulane
AmericanR2FAU (18-14/179) / North Texas (18-13/175)9:30NO PRED
Big TenR3Iowa (21-11/55) / Ohio St (20-11/46)12:00Ohio St
Big TenR3Washington (16-16/148) / Wisconsin (22-9/32)2:30Wisconsin
Big TenR3Northwestern (15-18/173) / Purdue (23-8/21)6:30Purdue
Big TenR3Rutgers (13-19/227) / UCLA (21-10/42)9:00UCLA
Big 12QFIowa St (26-6/18) / Texas Tech (22-9/19)12:30NO PRED
Big 12QFUCF (21-10/37) / Arizona (29-2/3)3:00Arizona
Big 12QFBYU (23-10/26) / Houston (26-5/8)7:00Houston
Big 12QFTCU (22-10/44) / Kansas (22-9/20)9:30Kansas
Big EastQFProvidence (15-17/185) / St Johns (25-6/16)12:00St Johns
Big EastQFCreighton (15-16/143) / Seton Hall (20-11/63)2:30Seton Hall
Big EastQFXavier (15-17/172) / UCONN (27-4/4)7:00UCONN
Big EastQFGeorgetown (15-17/168) / Villanova (24-7/23)9:30Villanova
Big WestQFUC San Diego (23-10/80) / Northridge (19-13/127)9:00UC San Diego
Big WestQFUC Davis (19-13/132) / Fullerton (17-15/176)11:30UC Davis
C-USAQFMid Tenn (17-14/140) / LA Tech (18-13/182)6:30Mid Tenn
C-USAQFKennesaw St (18-13/153) / W Kentucky (18-13/115)9:00W Kentucky
MACQFUMASS (16-15/169) / Miami OH (31-0/25)11:00amMiami OH
MACQFBowling Green (18-13/150) / Toledo (17-14/116)1:30Toledo
MACQFBuffalo (17-14/167) / Akron (26-5/38)4:00Akron
MACQFOhio (15-16/193) / Kent St (23-8/53)6:30Kent St
MEACQFSC St (9-21/341) / Norfolk St (15-16/277)6:00Norfolk St
MEACQFMD Eastern (9-22/344) / NC Central (12-17/304)8:00NC Central
Mtn WestQFUNLV (17-15/135) / Utah St (25-6/22)3:00Utah St
Mtn WestQFNevada (21-11/61) / Grand Canyon (20-11/78)5:30Nevada
Mtn WestQFColorado St (21-11/81) / San Diego St (20-10/49)9:00San Diego St
Mtn WestQFSan Jose St (9-23/324) / New Mexico (22-9/50)11:30New Mexico
SECR2Kentucky (20-12/41) / Missouri (20-11/62)12:30Kentucky
SECR2Auburn (17-15/76) / Tennessee (21-10/36)3:00Tennessee
SECR2Mississippi (13-19/219) / Georgia (22-9/34)7:00Georgia
SECR2Oklahoma (18-14/109) / Texas A&M (21-10/57)9:30Texas A&M
SWACQFAlabama A&M (17-14/232) / TX Southern (12-17/286)2:00Alabama A&M
SWACQFArk Pine Bluff (13-18/282) / Southern (15-16/263)8:30NO PRED
WACQFS Utah (10-21/309) / Arlington (17-13/128)9:00Arlington
WACQFAbilene Chr (14-18/229) / Utah Tech (18-14/144)11:30Utah Tech

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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for the beginning of the final weekend before the post-season tournaments. Selection Sunday is March 15th. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, JoJo and G.

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