In a normal year, oh great and wonderful college football fans, I get a week or so to get all of the bowl games input and analyzed. This year, I had a day and I failed to meet the deadline. As of this writing three games have already completed: App St (31) defeated North Texas (107) in the inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl on the teal turf in Conway, SC (it’s the first sanctioned bowl in SC) 56-28, Nevada (47) defeated Tulane (68) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue turf in Boise, ID 38-27, and BYU (13) upended UCF (48) in the Boca Raton bowl 49-23. Normally, I would have had the predictions for those games out, you know, prior to the games, but I just didn’t have time. In all 3 cases, the GCR agreed with Vegas – starting out 3-0 (but these are on the easier side to pick if you look at the disparity of the GCR rankings). As we speak the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl is in the 1st quarter and GCR expected winner (55.4%) Ga Southern (51) just took at 7-0 lead over LA Tech (53).
…..
In a year with a lack of consistency with scheduling (and we used to argue about whether an 8-game conference slate was the equivalent of a 9-game one – what fools we were), teams with records as bad as 3-7 are in bowls. UAB (32 and champion of Conference – USA) are not currently bowl bound after the Gasparilla Bowl (versus an atrocious 2-8 South Carolina (104) team) was cancelled due to a Covid outbreak (officially) in the Gamecocks locker room. Army (27) was originally snubbed despite being 9-2. Eventually they took Tennessee’s (76) spot in the Liberty Bowl with the Volunteers dropped out due to Covid. I’m still pulling for the Blazers to get a sub spot somewhere – they deserve it.
…..
Before I get into the predictions for the bowls, let’s see how the GCR did last week. Here’s the table with this week’s totals at the bottom.
Last week the GCR gained a full game going 13-6 vs an expectation of 12-7. After predicting 319 games this season (that were actually played) the GCR has a record of 231-88 for a .724 winning percentage. The bowl games are typically a little closer than the regular season, percentage to win-wise, and this year is no exception, on the whole. The 27 games currently scheduled (including the 3 already finished) produce an expected 16.8-10.2 record or .623. This does not include the championship game.
…..
Before we get into the bowl by bowl prediction, I’ll be tracking the conferences’ results as well. Here is the table with the predicted records and actual records.
…..
The GCR is not impressed with Conference USA predicting they go winless in their 6 games. Likewise, the SEC is not expected to do well with only Alabama (1) and Texas A&M (5) favored to win. The Sun Belt has some favorable matchups and should be perfect in the post-season.
…..
This shouldn’t be much of a surprise, but the GCR has Alabama (1) and Clemson (2) in the championship game (55.9% and 56.0% respectively). Here is all 27 games (normally there are 39) for your perusal.
…..
That’s it for the day. Until we get to the championship game, there won’t be any more predictions. But, I will send updates from time to time on how the conferences are performing compared to projection. By the way, Ga Southern is now up 14-0 with 13:11 to go in the half. Enjoy the holiday and the season. Be safe out there, G
