G’s Expectations or What to Watch in Week 10

Welcome back to an abbreviated Expectation, oh great and wonderful college football fans. Here at GCR headquarters, aka the living room, we had some unexpected events over the weekend along with a ton of follow up doctor’s appointments. So far so good on that front. But the biggest impact to time is college basketball jumps off in just 6 days. Because we are trying to keep costs down due to a $0 budget, the same staff working on football is preparing basketball.

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Each season we try to add something new. Last year we added basketball mid-season. This year we added the TV channel for every football game along with a new and, hopefully, improved prediction algorithm which is calibrated so that percent to win is directly indicative of the GCR point spread (e.g., 56.5% says the margin should be 6.5 points). This year for basketball, we are going to have a full season. This will, of course, have to fit in the existing football weekly schedule. I think, the week will look like this: Monday – Men’s BB Ranking, Tuesday – G’s Expectation (through FBS rivalry week), Wednesday – Women’s BB Ranking, Friday or Saturday – Championship Week Expectation, Sunday – G’s Evaluation through Championship Week. In December and January, there will be a G’s Expectation for every bowl game, playoff (FCS and FBS) game, and Army/Navy. There will be a final Evaluation after all games are completed in January. The basketball schedule will follow the same pattern throughout the regular season except for the hiatus over the December holidays. During the basketball post season events (and there are multiple tournaments), the GCR will predict each game. There are too many during the regular season (some days many more than 100) to publish them at this stage. The final rankings will be published after the final games are played. During the bowl season and basketball tournament season, I will keep the GCR current so that the predictions are based on the most current data but think there is a little bit of anticipation created by waiting until the seasons are completed to publish the final.

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Before we talk about the prediction success for last week, I overlooked an important detail in Sunday’s Evaluation. Presbyterian lost to Dayton giving Tennessee Tech the longest win streak in Division I at 12.

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Last week, in games that included an FBS team the GCR was an acceptable 41-12 (.774) bringing the season to a respectable 351-127 (.734). FCS vs FCS games were 47-12 (.797) bringing the total to 261-111 (.702). Overall, straight up (just picking the winner), the GCR was 88-24 (.786) for a season total of 611-238 (.720). Taking the Vegas odds (FBS/FBS games only) into consideration, the GCR was 28-25 (.528) improving the season to 204-197 (.509).

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With that, there are two games tonight, both at 8:00. UTEP is at Kennesaw St in a Conference USA game and James Madison (the highest GCR ranked Group of 5 team) is at Texas St in a Sun Belt conference game. Details are below.

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That’s it for this week. Please see all the games below. I hope your team does well unless they are playing my team. Thank you for reading and sharing, JoJo and G

Time (Eastern)Away Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/
GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)VegasGCR Win (nearest
.5%)
GCR CoverTV
ACC (17 teams) – Core 4
FRI 7:30North Carolina
(2-5/120)
ACC (0-3)Syracuse (3-5/85)ACC (1-4)SYR-1.5SYR 57.0%SYRESPN
12:00Miami FL
(6-1/9)
ACC (2-1)SMU (5-3/42)ACC (3-1)MIAF-12.5MIAF 58.5%SMUESPN
12:00Duke (4-3/43)ACC (3-1)Clemson (3-4/65)ACC (2-3)CLEM-3.5DUKE 54.0%DUKEACCN
3:00Louisville (6-1/7)ACC (3-1)Virginia Tech (3-5/94)ACC (2-2)LOU-10.5LOU 82.5%LOUThe CW
3:30Pittsburgh (6-2/27)ACC (4-1)Stanford (3-5/80)ACC (2-3)PITT-14.5PITT 77.0%PITTACCN
3:30Notre Dame (5-2/8)IND (0-0)Boston College
(1-7/139)
ACC (0-5)ND-28.5ND 92.5%NDESPN
3:45Virginia (7-1/13)ACC (4-1)California (5-3/66)ACC (2-2)VIR-4.5VIR 64.5%VIRESPN2
7:30Georgia Tech (8-0/4)ACC (5-0)NC St
(4-4/55)
ACC (2-3)GT-5.5GT 78.5%GTESPN2
7:30Wake Forest (5-2/35)ACC (2-2)Florida St
(3-4/64)
ACC (0-4)FSU-8.5WF 61.5%WFACCN
Idle – none
Big 12 (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00UCF (4-3/56)B12 (1-3)Baylor (4-4/70)B12 (2-3)BAY-4.5UCF 53.5%UCFESPNU
12:00West Virginia (2-6/105)B12 (0-5)Houston (7-1/19)B12 (4-1)HOU-13.5HOU 95.5%HOUFS1
1:00Arizona St
(5-3/38)
B12 (3-2)Iowa St
(5-3/37)
B12 (2-3)IAST-5.5IAST 54.5%AZSTTNT
3:30Texas Tech
(7-1/5)
B12 (4-1)Kansas St
(4-4/48)
B12 (3-3)TXTC-7.5TXTC 75.0%TXTCFox
4:00Oklahoma St (1-7/141)B12 (0-5)Kansas (4-4/59)B12 (2-3)KAN-24.5KAN 85.0%KANESPN+
7:00Arizona (4-3/47)B12 (2-3)Colorado (3-5/58)B12 (1-4)ARIZ-4.5ARIZ 61.5%ARIZFS1
10:15Cincinnati (7-1/12)B12 (5-0)Utah (6-2/11)B12 (3-2)UTAH-9.5CIN 50.5%CINESPN
Idle – BYU (8-0/3), TCU (6-2/26)
Big Ten (18 teams) – Core 4
12:00Penn St
(3-4/69)
B10 (0-4)Ohio St
(7-0/1)
B10 (4-0)OHST-20.5OHST 91.0%OHSTFox
12:00Rutgers (4-4/74)B10 (1-4)Illinois (5-3/30)B10 (2-3)ILL-12.5ILL 65.5%ILLNBC
3:30Michigan St (3-5/97)B10 (0-5)Minnesota (5-3/49)B10 (3-2)MINN-3.5MINN 71.0%MINNBTN
3:30Indiana (8-0/2)B10 (5-0)Maryland (4-3/60)B10 (1-3)IND-21.5IND 75.5%INDCBS
7:00Purdue (2-6/118)B10 (0-5)Michigan (6-2/14)B10 (4-1)MICH-20.5MICH 88.5%MICHBTN
7:30Southern Cal (5-2/17)B10 (3-1)Nebraska (6-2/25)B10 (3-2)SCAL-6.5SCAL 51.5%NEBNBC
Idle – Iowa (6-2/23), Northwestern (5-3/52), Oregon (7-1/6), UCLA (3-5/77), Washington (6-2/16), Wisconsin (2-6/102)
SEC (16 teams) – Core 4
12:00Vanderbilt (7-1/21)SEC (3-1)Texas (6-2/46)SEC (3-1)TEX-1.5VAND 54.5%VANDABC
3:30Georgia
(6-1/18)
Neutral Site
SEC (4-1)Florida
(3-4/79)
Neutral Site
SEC (2-2)GEO-7.5GEO 71.5%GEOABC
4:00Mississippi St (4-4/68)SEC (0-4)Arkansas (2-6/100)SEC (0-4)ARK-4.5MSST 59.5%MSSTSECN
7:00South Carolina
(3-5/101)
SEC (1-5)Mississippi (7-1/22)SEC (4-1)MISS-12.5MISS 77.5%MISSESPN
7:30Kentucky (2-5/117)SEC (0-5)Auburn (4-4/61)SEC (1-4)AUB-10.5AUB 67.5%AUBABC
7:30Oklahoma (6-2/28)SEC (2-2)Tennessee (6-2/44)SEC (3-2)TENN-3.5OKLA 52.5%OKLASECN
Idle – Alabama (7-1/15), LSU (5-3/53), Missouri (6-2/45), Texas A&M (8-0/10)
AAC (14 teams) – Group of 5
THU 7:30Tulane (6-1/31)AAC (3-0)UTSA (3-4/98)AAC (1-2)TULN-3.5TULN 65.5%TULNESPN
FRI 7:00Memphis (7-1/24)AAC (3-1)Rice (4-4/106)AAC (1-3)MEM-13.5MEM 73.0%MEMESPN2
12:00UAB (3-4/104)AAC (1-3)UCONN (5-3/73)IND (0-0)UCON-11.5UCON 69.0%UCONCBS Sports
12:00Navy (7-0/40)AAC (5-0)North Texas (7-1/29)AAC (3-1)NTEX-6.5NAVY 51.5%NAVYESPN2
12:00Army (3-4/84)AAC (2-3)Air Force
(2-5/113)
MWC (1-4)AF-1.5ARMY 55.5%ARMYParamount+
2:00East Carolina (4-3/62)AAC (2-1)Temple (5-3/75)AAC (3-1)ECAR-4.5TEMP 53.0%TEMPESPN+
Idle – Charlotte (1-7/178), FAU (3-5/111), South Florida (6-2/32), Tulsa (2-6/127)
C-USA (12 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 8:00UTEP (2-5/136)USA (1-2)Kennesaw St (5-2/50)USA (3-0)KNST-10.5KNST 73.5%KNSTESPNU
WED 7:30Jacksonville St
(4-3/95)
USA (3-0)Middle Tennessee (1-6/158)USA (0-3)JAX-6.5JAX 67.5%JAXESPN2
WED 8:00FIU (3-4/114)USA (1-2)Missouri St (4-3/96)USA (2-1)MOST-3.5MOST 58.0%MOSTCBS Sports
FRI 8:00Sam Houston (0-7/166)USA (0-4)LA Tech
(4-3/57)
USA (2-2)LATC-16.5LATC 84.0%LATCCBS Sports
3:30New Mexico St
(3-4/122)
USA (1-3)W Kentucky (6-2/78)USA (4-1)WKY-9.5WKY 64.5%WKYEPSN+
3:30Delaware (4-3/87)USA (2-2)Liberty (3-4/109)USA (2-1)LIB-3.5DEL 55.0%DELCBS Sports
Idle – none
FBS Independents (2 teams) – Notre Dame=Core 4, UCONN=Group of 5
OOC – Notre Dame (@Boston College-ACC), UCONN (UAB-USA)
MAC (13 teams) – Group of 5
12:00Buffalo (4-4/116)MAC (3-1)Bowling Green
(3-5/108)
MAC (1-3)BG-1.5BUFF 53.5%BUFFESPN+
4:00C Michigan (5-3/86)MAC (3-1)W Michigan (4-4/90)MAC (3-1)WMI-4.5CMI 51.5%CMIESPNU
Idle – Akron (3-6/125), Ball St (3-5/128), E Michigan (2-7/143), Kent St (3-5/124), Miami OH (5-3/82), N Illinois (2-6/132), Ohio (5-3/76), Toledo (4-4/88), UMASS (0-8/202)
Mountain West (12 teams) – Group of 5
3:00New Mexico (5-3/72)MWC (2-2)UNLV (6-1/51)MWC (2-1)UNLV-4.5UNLV 60.5%UNLVMWN
3:30Fresno St
(5-3/93)
MWC (2-2)Boise St
(6-2/36)
MWC (4-0)BOST-17.5BOST 64.0%FRSTFS1
7:00Wyoming (4-4/107)MWC (2-2)San Diego St (6-1/33)MWC (3-0)SDST-10.5SDST 76.0%SDSTCBS Sports
10:30Hawaii (6-2/71)MWC (3-1)San Jose St (2-5/121)MWC (1-2)SJST-2.5HAW 66.5%HAWCBS Sports
OOC – Air Force (Army-AAC)
Idle – Colorado St (2-6/129), Nevada (1-7/151), Utah St (4-4/89)
Pac-12 (2 teams) – Group of 5
7:30Washington St
(4-4/54)
PAC (0-0)Oregon St (1-7/126)PAC (0-0)WAST-3.5WAST 73.5%WASTCBS
Idle – none
Sun Belt (14 teams) – Group of 5
TUE 8:00James Madison
(6-1/20)
SUN (4-0)Texas St
(3-4/83)
SUN (0-3)JMU-6.5JMU 74.5%JMUESPN2
THU 7:30Marshall (4-3/63)SUN (2-1)Coastal Car (4-3/67)SUN (3-1)MARS-4.5MARS 52.0%CCARESPN2
3:30Louisiana (2-6/110)SUN (1-3)South Alabama
(2-6/115)
SUN (1-3)SALA-3.5SALA 54.0%SALAESPN+
3:30Old Dominion
(5-3/39)
SUN (2-2)ULM (3-5/103)SUN (1-3)OD-16.5OD 68.0%ODESPN+
8:00Arkansas St (4-4/92)SUN (3-1)Troy (6-2/41)SUN (4-0)TROY-7.5TROY 71.0%TROYESPNU
Idle – App St (4-4/81), Ga Southern (3-5/91), Georgia St (1-7/142), Southern Miss (6-2/34)
Big Sky (12 teams) – FCS
FRI 10:30Idaho (3-5/185)SKY (1-3)N Arizona
(5-3/192)
SKY (2-2)IDA 54%ESPN2
2:00Montana St (6-2/133)SKY (4-0)N Colorado (3-5/214)SKY (1-3)MTST 59%ESPN+
3:00Montana (8-0/135)SKY (4-0)Weber St
(3-5/225)
SKY (1-3)MONT 68%ESPN+
4:00Sacramento St
(4-4/176)
SKY (2-2)E Washington (4-4/211)SKY (3-1)SAC 51%ESPN+
4:00Idaho St
(2-6/199)
SKY (1-3)UC Davis
(6-1/147)
SKY (4-0)UCD 74%ESPN+
5:00Portland St (0-8/258)SKY (0-4)Cal Poly
(3-5/190)
SKY (1-3)CP 73%ESPN+
Idle – none
Big South/Ohio Valley (9 teams) – FCS
1:00Gardner Webb
(5-3/168)
BSOV (3-1)Tennessee Tech
(8-0/130)
BSOV (5-0)TNTC 79%ESPN+
2:00Charleston So (3-6/219)BSOV (2-3)SEMO (3-5/209)BSOV (2-2)SEMO 59%ESPN+
3:00Tennessee Martin
(3-5/239)
BSOV (3-1)E Illinois
(3-5/230)
BSOV (2-3)EILL 61%ESPN+
4:30Lindenwood (3-5/220)BSOV (2-2)Tennessee St (2-6/242)BSOV (0-4)LIN 56%ESPN+
Idle – W Illinois (2-7/243)
Coastal (14 teams) – FCS
12:00Towson (3-5/217)CAA (1-3)North Carolina A&T (2-6/249)CAA (2-2)pickFloFootball
1:00Monmouth (7-1/140)CAA (4-0)Bryant (2-6/245)CAA (0-4)MON 69%FloFootball
1:00Stony Brook (4-4/175)CAA (2-2)Maine (4-4/193)CAA (3-1)SB 55%FloFootball
3:30Albany (1-7/255)CAA (0-4)William & Mary
(4-4/183)
CAA (3-2)W&M 72%FloFootball
Idle – Campbell (2-7/237), Elon (4-5/191), Hampton (2-7/256), New Hampshire (5-4/173), Rhode Island (7-2/153), Villanova (6-2/155)
FCS Independent (2 teams) – FCS
12:00New Haven (4-4/235)NEC (0-3)Sacred Heart (5-3/171)FCS (0-0)SH 62%ESPN+
1:00Merrimack (3-5/203)FCS (0-0)Colgate (3-5/204)PAT (2-2)COLG 60%ESPN+
Idle – none
Ivy League (8 teams) – FCS
FRI 7:00Brown (3-3/170)IVY (0-3)Penn (4-2/154)IVY (2-1)PENN 62%ESPNU
12:00Columbia (1-5/238)IVY (0-3)Yale (4-2/138)IVY (2-1)YALE 80%ESPN+
1:00Princeton (3-3/187)IVY (2-1)Cornell (2-4/221)IVY (1-2)PRIN 52%ESPN+
3:00Dartmouth (5-1/148)IVY (2-1)Harvard (6-0/112)Ivy (3-0)HARV 72%ESPN+
Idle – none
MEAC (6 teams) – FCS
THU 7:00Norfolk St
(1-7/262)
Neutral Site
MEAC (0-1)Delaware St (5-3/167)
Neutral Site
MEAC (1-0)DEST 70%ESPNU
2:00Morgan St
(3-5/231)
MEAC (0-1)South Carolina St (5-3/189)MEAC (1-0)SCST 65%ESPN+
3:30NC Central (5-3/174)MEAC (0-1)Howard (4-4/213)MEAC (1-0)pickESPN+
Idle – none
Missouri Valley (10 teams) – FCS
2:00North Dakota (6-2/131)MVFC (4-0)South Dakota (5-4/182)MVFC (3-2)NDAK 62%ESPN+
3:00N Iowa
(2-6/229)
MVFC (0-4)Illinois St
(5-3/163)
MVFC (2-2)ILST 68%ESPN+
3:00Indiana St
(2-6/218)
MVFC (0-4)South Dakota St
(7-1/134)
MVFC (3-1)SDKS 83%ESPN+
3:30Youngstown St
(5-3/186)
MVFC (2-2)North Dakota St
(8-0/99)
MVFC (5-0)NDST 84%ESPN+
5:00S Illinois
(5-3/161)
MVFC (2-2)Murray St
(0-8/263)
MVFC (0-4)SILL 73%ESPN+
Idle – none
Northeast (9 teams) – FCS
12:00Long Island (3-5/208)NEC (2-2)C Connecticut (5-3/181)NEC (3-0)CCON 61%NEC Front Row
12:00Wagner (2-6/244)NEC (1-2)St Francis
(0-7/265)
NEC (0-3)WAG 53%NEC Front Row
1:00Robert Morris (2-6/251)NEC (1-2)Stonehill (3-5/216)NEC (2-1)STON 62%NEC Front Row
OOC – New Haven (@Sacred Heart-FCS)
Idle – Duquesne (5-4/180), Mercyhurst (3-6/223)
Patriot League (8 teams) – FCS
12:00Georgetown (5-3/198)PAT (2-1)Lehigh (8-0/123)PAT (3-0)LEH 72%ESPN+
1:00Lafayette (5-3/197)PAT (3-0)Holy Cross (1-7/222)PAT (1-2)LAF 55%ESPN+
2:00Fordham (1-7/259)PAT (1-3)Richmond (4-4/207)PAT (1-3)RICH 73%ESPN+
OOC – Colgate (Merrimack-FCS)
Idle – Bucknell (4-5/226)
Pioneer League (11 teams) – FCS
1:00Drake (5-2/162)PFL (4-0)Butler (5-3/194)PFL (3-1)DRAK 52%ESPN+
1:00Davidson (1-7/260)PFL (0-4)Morehead St (4-5/228)PFL (2-3)MHST 69%ESPN+
1:00Valparaiso (1-7/254)PFL (0-4)Presbyterian (7-1/150)PFL (3-1)PC 79%ESPN+
2:00Marist (3-5/215)PFL (1-3)St Thomas (5-3/160)PFL (3-2)STTH 68%Midco Sports+
4:00Dayton (6-2/157)PFL (4-1)San Diego (4-4/201)PFL (2-2)DAY 56%ESPN+
Idle – Stetson (3-6/247)
SoCon (9 teams) – FCS
1:30Samford (1-7/264)SoCon (1-5)Wofford (2-6/205)SoCon (1-3)WOFF 75%ESPN+
2:00Mercer (6-1/137)SoCon (5-0)Furman (5-3/188)SoCon (3-2)MERC 59%ESPN+
2:00VMI (1-7/248)SoCon (0-4)Citadel (3-5/212)SoCon (2-3)CIT 64%ESPN+
4:00W Carolina (5-3/179)SoCon (4-0)Chattanooga (4-4/172)SoCon (3-1)WCAR 53%ESPN+
Idle – E Tennessee St (4-5/177)
Southland (10 teams) – FCS
3:00Lamar (7-1/149)SLAN (4-0)Incarnate Word
(2-6/233)
SLAN (0-4)LAM 62%ESPN+
4:00Houston Chr (2-6/253)SLAN (1-3)Nicholls (2-6/232)SLAN (2-2)NICH 58%ESPN+
7:00East Texas
(2-6/227)
SLAN (2-2)Southeastern (6-2/144)SLAN (4-0)SELA 79%ESPN+
7:00Northwestern St
(1-7/257)
SLAN (0-4)McNeese (2-6/252)SLAN (1-3)MCN 63%ESPN+
7:00Rio Grande (6-2/159)SLAN (2-2)Steph F Austin
(6-2/156)
SLAN (4-0)SFA 57%ESPN+
Idle – none
SWAC (12 teams) – FCS
3:00Alabama A&M
(4-4/224)
SWAC (2-3)Grambling St (5-3/196)SWAC (2-2)GRAM 57%SWAC TV
3:00Alabama St (5-2/145)SWAC (4-1)Prairie View (6-2/184)SWAC (4-0)ALST 53%SWAC TV
3:00Alcorn St
(2-6/236)
SWAC (1-4)Texas Southern
(4-3/206)
SWAC (3-1)TXSO 58%HBCUGo
3:00Southern (1-7/261)SWAC (1-5)Ark Pine Bluff (3-5/234)SWAC (1-3)APB 65%SWAC TV
3:00Mississippi Valley
(1-6/250)
SWAC (0-4)Bethune (4-4/200)SWAC (3-1)BETH 64%SWAC TV
7:00Jackson St
(5-2/152)
SWAC (3-1)Florida A&M (3-4/246)SWAC (2-1)JACK 62%ESPN+
Idle – none
UAC (9 teams) – FCS
4:00Tarleton (9-0/119)UAC (5-0)Abilene Chr (4-4/165)UAC (3-1)TARL 60%ESPN+
4:00N Alabama (2-6/240)UAC (1-3)Utah Tech
(1-7/241)
UAC (0-4)NALA 54%ESPN+
5:00E Kentucky (3-5/210)UAC (1-3)C Arkansas (3-5/195)UAC (2-2)CARK 62%ESPN+
8:30Austin Peay (5-3/146)UAC (3-2)S Utah
(3-5/169)
UAC (2-2)AP 52%ESPN+
Idle – West Georgia (6-3/164)