Greetings fellow football fan. It seems early in the week for Expectations but MAC Nation is at it again. 3 games tonight (Ohio is beating Akron 7-0 late in the first), Kent St at Bowling Green, and Miami OH at Buffalo tonight. 3 more games tomorrow and the rest of CFB gets into it starting Thursday. We had 10 games postponed or cancelled last week and we are up to 5 already this week. Let’s hope for better collective health for the player, coaches, staff, and referees.
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Before we get into what to watch, let’s deal with the predictions from last week. By the way, I fully recognize that if you compare the actuals to the forecast from last week, the numbers are different – see the first paragraph about dropped games. When a game is postponed or cancelled, I take it out of the expected wins/losses so that in the final it becomes apples and apples. Hope that makes sense. Last week there ended up being 26 games that were played and qualified for predictions (both teams either FBS or FCS and both teams with at least 3 games played). In the 50% decile the GCR had a disappointing 3-5 finish with missed picks Liberty, Steph F Austin, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Pittsburgh. For the higher deciles, the combined rate was 17-1 with Florida keeping the GCR from perfection. Overall a nice 20-6 or .769. Year to date the GCR is 85-29 or .746. The 50% decile (or the toss up games) have been strong this year despite last week’s with a winning percentage of .606. The really nice surprise is the .803 winning percentage with the higher deciles. Here’s the table with the summary for this week as well (see bottom of post for each qualified game):
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The really fun news, for me anyway, is the GCR has its first 90% decile pick – in fact, 3 of them this week! Got to love locks. This is probably a good time for the legal message that all predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
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Before we see how the GCR picks land in week 11, we need to know how to spend our day. After last week’s games, there aren’t many that stand out this week (especially with Alabama, Texas A&M, and Auburn all sidelined). For the pre-Saturday games, the MAC Nation as a group are the best of the best. The first 99.9% game is Friday night when Cincinnati (8) hosts East Carolina (126). The only game between top 50 teams is Toledo (49) at W Michigan (36) Wednesday night so, by default, that game gets the one to watch moniker.
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The Saturday early games are a little better. Can Indiana (10) make it 4-0 at Michigan St (113). The GCR can finally predict most of the Big 10 games and it says yes 87.7% of the time. UNC (29) hosts Wake Forest (34) in one of those toss up games (UNC 57.2%). The game to watch is Miami FL (4) at Virginia Tech (30). The Hokies lost on an ugly set of plays at the end of the game to Liberty (19) – can they get it together to protect their turf against a top 4 team? Vegas has Hokies -2.5, but the GCR is calling for an upset Miami (63.1%).
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The mid-afternoon games have Notre Dame (2) coming off the OT win against Clemson (3) traveling to Boston College (32) coming off a squeaker against Syracuse (70). Can Maryland (50) protect their turf against Ohio St (12)? The nod for game to watch is in the Sun Belt, which if you haven’t been paying attention, has been surprisingly strong this year. Georgia St (75) is fighting for a winning record in a really tough division but has to beat last year’s champion App St (46) to do it. The Mountaineers have just one loss (against undefeated Marshall – ranked 17th) and are trying to keep pace with the Sun Belt’s leader Coastal Carolina (currently undefeated and ranked 9th). The reason this game wins out is the unique football season this year. The New Years Six bowls have a guaranteed spot to the best group of 5 team. Every year, that spot has gone to the American champion. This year, the Sun Belt, if their good teams keep winning and Coastal stays perfect, has an argument. If App St loses a game they should win (Vegas -16.5, GCR 66.8%), it diminishes the league.
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The night games could be Oregon (21) at Washington St (13), both winners in the Pac12 week 1. Wisconsin (22) playing their second game of the year against a disappointed Michigan (101) squad or maybe NC St (53) hosting Florida St (59). But no, the game to watch and the Game of the Week is Arkansas (54) at Florida (14). The SEC East is just 6-13 against the West this year (Georgia has 2 wins while Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina have 1 each). Arkansas was, let’s face it, awful the last few years. They are 3-3 and could be 4-2 except for a bad call against Auburn. Florida all but wrapped up the East (it would take a miracle bigger than the US beating the Soviets in the semi-final) but could this game be a let down after the beating the Gators dealt to Georgia (18)? Vegas gives Florida a big cushion at -17.5 and the GCR has the Gators 71.6% – at home, vs Arkansas. I think Florida will win and it could be a blowout from the first play, but something tells me this one will be worth paying attention to.
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And here are the predictions for this week (all times Eastern):
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One of the issues about posting on Tuesday is some games have a delay from Vegas, not to mention those lines will change. But not the GCR – it’s posted. By the way, just to see if Steve read all the way through (insert evil laugh), I have Ohio State winning out with the only close one (currently 55%) a home game vs Indiana (10). If both of those teams win this week, you can count on that game being the Game of the Week next time.
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To get you caught up: Akron is down 14-7 at Ohio with just over 3:00 to go in the half, Kent St and Bowling Green are knotted up 10-10 late in the 1st, and Miami OH and Buffalo are scoreless early.
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Enjoy the week, please stay safe, and comment or question to your heart’s content. As always, thank you for sharing with others, G
