Greetings college football fans! After Covid cancellations we still have 40 games on the docket. It all started tonight where Southern Miss (117) is hosting and surprising favored FAU (42) 24-17 at the half. Pittsburgh (32) has invaded Atlanta facing the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech (68) and holds a 13-7 lead late in the first half.
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Last week, the GCR was pretty spot on overall correctly picking the winner in 33 of the 46 contests (.717) while the expected win rate was .711 – a +0.3 wins or even. It was a surprise when the 90% decile was 3-3 – as a reference point, last year there were only 2 90% losses the entire year. Granted, I updated the formula for this season, improving overall accuracy, but still. I broke down the conferences (and the 3 cross-conference or independent games). Conference USA (2-1), MAC (2-2), the AAC (1-1), Big 10 (3-2), Pac 12 (3-3), and the non-conference games (2-1) killed the winning percentage going a combined 13-10 (.565). On the other hand, the Mountain West (4-1), Sun Belt (3-0), Big 12 (4-1), ACC (4-1), and SEC (5-0) helped a lot at a combined 20-3 (.870). We’ll see if that holds this week. Here’s the table to date and overall expected rates.
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The key question is how to spend our time this weekend, am I right? It’s not like we’re going anywhere – ha. In addition to the two games tonight (update, Southern Miss scored again and is up 31-17 and Pittsburgh is now up 16-7 at the half), there are 3 games tomorrow night. While I know everyone is chomping at the bit to tune in to a match up of winless teams when Arizona St (126) stays in state to take on Arizona (128), the game to watch will decide the winner of the Mountain West West division. Undefeated San Jose St (5-0, 21) hosts Nevada (6-1, 29). Nevada lost its last road game in Hawaii (98) and face a more difficult challenge in the Spartans. It should be a good one – close and exciting. Vegas has State as a -2.5 favorite while the GCR has a toss up 50% decile game State 59.6%.
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For the early games on Saturday, I thought about making the game to watch Michigan St (88) at Penn St (104) which was moved from the 3:30 (all times Eastern) slot just today. Neither of the teams are where they want to be, but Penn St won its last two games after an abysmal 0-5 start. Michigan St beat Northwestern (19) before losing to the other Big 10 championship game team (Ohio St because of course the rules are different for them). The game is about pride. Not to mention Vegas really likes the Nittany Lions -15.0 while the GCR is choosing the Spartans 59.9%. It could have been Houston (64) at Memphis (48) – another GCR upset call. But no, the game to watch is from the MAC: #50 W Michigan (who just was embarrassed and dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten by lowly E Michigan (124) who, in doing so, won their first game) travels to Muncie, Indiana to take on Ball St (43) for a trip to the MAC championship game vs (probably) Buffalo (23). Before the E Michigan loss, Vegas and the GCR probably would have backed the Broncos, but with that hit, both like the Cardinals – Vegas has Ball St -2.5 and the GCR agrees 58.1%.
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The afternoon games have a few intriguing matchups. App St (36) takes on Ga Southern (47), Washington (38) tries to give Oregon (60) a 3-game losing streak, UNC (24) travels to southern Florida to play a rescheduled game against the Hurricanes (4) in the only GCR 25 matchup of the weekend. The game of the week goes to the only game other than the Natty played all by its lonesome: The Army/Navy game. Traditionally held the week after conference championships (on the off chance that Navy earns the right to play for the AAC title), it is the only game originally scheduled for this week. The game won’t be in the traditional Philadelphia setting due to Covid, but rather at West Point. Kickoff is at 3:00 and it’s a great way to remember our soldiers, sailors, airmen and women, guardsmen and women, and marines who serve this country regardless of politics, health issues, or world events sacrificing each and every day. Watching the future leaders of 3 of our armed forces branches is awe-inspiring. Army should win handily (GCR 79.1%, Vegas -7.0), but that’s not the point. This is a college football tradition that heralds the bowl season in a normal year and, in this year of continued strife and stress, a reminder that perseverance and sacrifice helped 144 teams get through, at least, part of a football season – and that’s it’s coming to an end (at least the fall/winter portion).
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The night games offer a few good choices as well. LA Tech (51) takes on TCU (39) – the Big 12 has not had good results against Group of 5 schools this year. Can Southern Cal (10) beat a team with, you know, a win under their belt in UCLA (57)? For the game to watch, we need to move to the ACC and the state of Virginia whose namesake universities fight it out. Both of these schools have played a top 7 GCR SOS. At 5-4 Virginia (28) heads to Blacksburg to tackle 4-6 Virginia Tech. Vegas likes the Hokies -3.0, but in typical fashion for this week, the GCR likes the Cavaliers 60.0%.
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Those are the picks for this week. Thanks for reading and sharing as always. For an update, Southern Miss is holding on to a 7 point (38-31) lead as they head to the 4th. FAU was favored by 9 and picked by the GCR 78.6%. Pittsburgh just scored another touchdown on the Jackets and are up 23-7 about half way through the 3rd. Here is every game, every prediction. Have a great and safe weekend, G
