Welcome to the latest episode of the GCR and a dive into last week vs this week in our very own top 25. Before we do that though, I would like to extend congratulations to the first 2 bowl-eligible teams this season: Indiana (6-0/3) and Miami FL (6-0/5). Miami, by the way, was down 25 in the 3rd quarter at California (3-2/70) trying to join the other 8 first-time losers yesterday, but roared back to win by a single point, 39-38.
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In this post, let’s look at similar data in two different ways. First, we’ll review Week 5’s Top 25, their week 6 results, and their new rankings. In the table below, the opponent’s ranking follows the name and is the current ranking, not the ranking at the time. Why? Because as a reminder, or as something new if you haven’t heard me talk about it, the GCR assumes all games are “now”. I’ve always disliked when a pre-season AP Top 25 team is beaten in week 1 and ends up 6-6 or worse, but the team that beat them in that opening game gets “credit” for beating a ranked opponent. If a team is ranked in the top 25 at the time of the ranking, its opponents have a win or a loss “credit” against a “ranked” team (the top 25 isn’t really something that special in the GCR as I rank all 263, but, I hope, you get the point). If that team falls out of the top 25, the “credit” goes away. At the end of the season, after the Natty is played, that’s the only official “credits” vs the top 25. Hope that makes sense. In simpler terms, and I’ll use the Texas A&M (5-1/12) / Missouri (4-1/25) game. When the game was played TAM was 4-1/32 and MIZZ 4-0/10. If the season ended today, the Aggies get credit for beating a team ranked 25 (that’s not really how it works either in the formula but go with it) at home and the Tigers get credit for losing to a #12 team on the road. But, back to the table (you probably don’t remember after such a long side bar: this one is the week 5 top 25 and how they fared in week 6).
| Week 5 Ranking | Week 6 Result | Week 6 Ranking | Rank Change |
| Texas (5-0/1) | Idle | Texas (5-0/1) | 0 |
| Tennessee (4-0/2) | LOSS 14-19 @Arkansas (42) | Tennessee (4-1/13) | -11 |
| Ohio St (4-0/3) | 35-7 vs Iowa (39) | Ohio St (5-0/2) | 1 |
| Indiana (5-0/4) | 41-24 @Northwestern (75) | Indiana (6-0/3) | 1 |
| Iowa St (4-0/5) | 43-21 vs Baylor (51) | Iowa St (5-0/4) | 1 |
| BYU (5-0/6) | Idle | BYU (5-0/7) | -1 |
| Alabama (4-0/7) | LOSS 35-40 @Vanderbilt (73) | Alabama (4-1/22) | -15 |
| Miami FL (5-0/8) | 39-38 @California (70) | Miami FL (6-0/5) | 3 |
| Penn St (4-0/9) | 27-11 vs UCLA (34) | Penn St (5-0/6) | 3 |
| Missouri (4-0/10) | LOSS 10-41 @Texas A&M (12) | Missouri (4-1/25) | -15 |
| Duke (5-0/11) | LOSS 14-24 @Georgia Tech (46) | Duke (5-1/24) | -13 |
| Oregon (4-0/12) | 31-10 vs Michigan St (58) | Oregon (5-0/8) | 4 |
| Rutgers (4-0/13) | LOSS 7-14 @Nebraska (14) | Rutgers (4-1/23) | -10 |
| Pittsburgh (4-0/14) | 34-24 @North Carolina (54) | Pittsburgh (5-0/9) | 5 |
| Kansas St (4-1/15) | Idle | Kansas St (4-1/15) | 0 |
| Army (4-0/16) | 49-7 @Tulsa (127) | Army (5-0/10) | 6 |
| Notre Dame (4-1/17) | Idle | Notre Dame (4-1/21) | -4 |
| James Madison (4-0/18) | LOSS 19-21 @ULM (59) | James Madison (4-1/44) | -26 |
| UNLV (4-0/19) | LOSS 41-44 2OT vs Syracuse (35) | UNLV (4-1/57) | -38 |
| Illinois (4-1/20) | Idle | Illinois (4-1/16) | 4 |
| Georgia (3-1/21) | 31-13 vs Auburn (96) | Georgia (4-1/17) | 4 |
| Nebraska (4-1/22) | 14-7 vs Rutgers (23) | Nebraska (5-1/14) | 8 |
| Colorado (4-1/23) | Idle | Colorado (4-1/26) | -3 |
| Mississippi (4-1/24) | 27-3 @South Carolina (66) | Mississippi (5-1/11) | 13 |
| Navy (4-0/25) | 34-7 @Air Force (140) | Navy (5-0/19) | 6 |
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Through the first 5 weeks, these 25 teams had a combined record of 104-7 (.936). Granted, many of those wins were non-conference (and sometimes very cupcaky) games. This week, however, they were just 12-7 (.632). If you take the .936 over the 19 games played, the expectation would be 17.8 games, or a 5.8 deficit. Just in case you were wondering if this was truly a major upset week, consider that the only game between teams ranked in the week 5 top 25 was Rutgers at Nebraska. The biggest Core 4 drops were Alabama and Missouri who each dropped 15 spots, but the GCR is harsher to the Group of 5 (general strength of schedule) and the two G5 first-time losers dropped WAY out of the top 25. Being idle can hurt or help (again, SOS, so any team should want their opponents to win as much as possible to boost their own SOS) and Colorado was hurt the worst, falling 3 spots to 26. The only 2 teams to hold on the same ranking both weeks were #1 Texas and #15 Kansas St – both were idle.
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Another way to cut this data is to look at week 6 (current) and backwards. Let’s look.
| Week 5 Ranking | Week 6 Result | Week 6 Ranking | Rank Change |
| Texas (5-0/1) | Idle | Texas (5-0/1) | 0 |
| Ohio St (4-0/3) | 35-7 vs Iowa (39) | Ohio St (5-0/2) | 1 |
| Indiana (5-0/4) | 41-24 @Northwestern (75) | Indiana (6-0/3) | 1 |
| Iowa St (4-0/5) | 43-21 vs Baylor (51) | Iowa St (5-0/4) | 1 |
| Miami FL (5-0/8) | 39-38 @California (70) | Miami FL (6-0/5) | 3 |
| Penn St (4-0/9) | 27-11 vs UCLA (34) | Penn St (5-0/6) | 3 |
| BYU (5-0/6) | Idle | BYU (5-0/7) | -1 |
| Oregon (4-0/12) | 31-10 vs Michigan St (58) | Oregon (5-0/8) | 4 |
| Pittsburgh (4-0/14) | 34-24 @North Carolina (54) | Pittsburgh (5-0/9) | 5 |
| Army (4-0/16) | 49-7 @Tulsa (127) | Army (5-0/10) | 6 |
| Mississippi (4-1/24) | 27-3 @South Carolina (66) | Mississippi (5-1/11) | 13 |
| Texas A&M (4-1/32) | 41-10 vs Missouri (25) | Texas A&M (5-1/12) | 20 |
| Tennessee (4-0/2) | LOSS 14-19 @Arkansas (42) | Tennessee (4-1/13) | -11 |
| Nebraska (4-1/22) | 14-7 vs Rutgers (23) | Nebraska (5-1/14) | 8 |
| Kansas St (4-1/15) | Idle | Kansas St (4-1/15) | 0 |
| Illinois (4-1/20) | Idle | Illinois (4-1/16) | 4 |
| Georgia (3-1/21) | 31-13 vs Auburn (96) | Georgia (4-1/17) | 4 |
| SMU (4-1/27) | 34-27 @Louisville (47) | SMU (5-1/18) | 9 |
| Navy (4-0/25) | 34-7 @Air Force (140) | Navy (5-0/19) | 6 |
| Texas Tech (4-1/31) | 28-20 @Arizona (48) | Texas Tech (5-1/20) | 11 |
| Notre Dame (4-1/17) | Idle | Notre Dame (4-1/21) | -4 |
| Alabama (4-0/7) | LOSS 35-40 @Vanderbilt (73) | Alabama (4-1/22) | -15 |
| Rutgers (4-0/13) | LOSS 7-14 @Nebraska (14) | Rutgers (4-1/23) | -10 |
| Duke (5-0/11) | LOSS 14-24 @Georgia Tech (46) | Duke (5-1/24) | -13 |
| Missouri (4-0/10) | LOSS 10-41 @Texas A&M (12) | Missouri (4-1/25) | -15 |
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First, this drops James Madison, UNLV, and Colorado while adding Texas A&M, SMU, and Texas Tech. Texas A&M jumped 20 points (not the largest in the top 263, but the largest in the top 25), but Mississippi (13 spots) and Texas Tech (11 spots) both jumped double digits as well. It’s easier to jump big when you have a lot of teams in front of you, so the road win by the Rebels is very impressive. The “new” top 25 teams were 15-5 (.750) last week, still less than what they’ve done so far, but more reasonable considering most of the games are in-conference.
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Why did 8 out of the 25 perfect teams going into this weekend lose? Easy, it’s college football. It’s why I don’t bet on the games. Speaking of that, the GCR picking FBS games was 32-17 (.653) straight up and 25-23 (.510) against the spread. The FCS games were 33-21 (.611) straight up, giving a total win rate of 65-38 (.631). Not the best of weeks, but it was a weird week.
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That’s it for this post. As always, thank you for reading and especially sharing with others, G. Remember, the first games this week are on Tuesday, so look for the next post during the first games.
