I hope all of you are getting some rest from the hectic day yesterday. In today’s G’s Evaluation, I mentioned Upsets but wanted to go into a bit more detail with that. There are 26 conferences in Division I, 11 in the FBS (if you count the Independents as a conference), and some are broken into divisions. Only one of them is in the FCS (the SWAC gives us a championship game with the winner earning a spot in the Celebration Bowl versus the MEAC champion), but 6 in the FBS: ACC, Big Ten, MAC, Moutain West, SEC, and the Sun Belt. Here’s how they’ve done so far (with the non-divisional conferences added):
| Division/Conference | Record/Conf Rec | Best Team | Worst Team |
| American (11) | 12-10/1-1 | SMU (2-0/36) | Navy (0-2/148) |
| ACC Atlantic (7) | 11-3/2-2 | Syracuse (2-0/4) | Boston College (0-2/108) |
| ACC Coastal (7) | 11-4/1-1 | Duke (2-0/5) | Virginia Tech (1-1/110) |
| Big 12 (10) | 16-4/1-1 | Oklahoma (2-0/9) | West Virginia (0-2/84) |
| Big Ten East (7) | 14-0/2-0 | Michigan St (2-0/3) | Indiana (2-0/35) |
| Big Ten West (7) | 9-7/1-3 | Minnesota (2-0/19) | Nebraska (1-2/44) |
| Conference USA (11) | 13-13/2-2 | W Kentucky (2-0/49) | FIU (1-1/153) |
| Independents (7) | 5-11/0-0 | BYU (2-0/41) | UCONN (1-2/133) |
| MAC East (6) | 3-9/0-0 | Kent St (0-2/55) | Akron (1-1/114) |
| MAC West (6) | 5-7/1-1 | Toledo (2-0/42) | N Illinois (1-1/139) |
| MWC Mountain (6) | 7-7/1-1 | Air Force (2-0/45) | New Mexico (1-1/142) |
| MWC West (6) | 6-8/0-0 | Hawaii (0-3/86) | San Diego St (1-1/142) |
| Pac12 (12) | 17-7/1-1 | Southern Cal (2-0/6) | Utah (1-1/90) |
| SEC East (7) | 11-4/1-2 | Georgia (2-0/1) | South Carolina (1-1/68) |
| SEC West (7) | 12-2/0-0 | Alabama (2-0/2) | Texas A&M (1-1/118) |
| Sun Belt East (7) | 10-4/0-0 | James Madison (2-0/37) | Old Dominion (1-1/122) |
| Sun Belt West (7) | 8-6/0-0 | Louisiana (2-0/47) | ULM (1-1/136) |
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Just looking through the chart, we see the Big Ten East is a perfect 14-0! The SEC West is 12-2 (with LSU losing to Florida St and Texas A&M to App St). Both ACC divisions look solid so far (they were 10-3 in week 2 as a conference), the SEC East along with the Pac 12 and Big 12 all look good. The Big Ten West is an early train wreck at just 9-7. Nebraska already fired their coach after an upset loss (his 22nd within a single score, and second this season). Just two weeks into the season, only one team remains undefeated (Minnesota accomplished this feat by taking out 0-3/113 New Mexico St and FCS 0-2/180 W Illinois). But with the exception of the poor play from the B1G West, the Power 5 looks like we expect it to. The Group of 5 is a bit a puzzle though. Biased viewpoint of the American conference being the premier G5 conference (and, yes, it used to be head and shoulders above the others) isn’t shown here in the pedestrian 12-10 start. Especially when only SMU (2-0/36) and Tulane (2-0/40) are undefeated. Maybe the upcoming loss of teams the to the Big 12 and acceptance of a new swath of teams coming in are a distraction. Conference USA at 13-13 is a bit of a surprise. They often take massive losses in money games at the beginning of the season, and some of those have happened, but every team except Charlotte (0-3/116) has a victory and every team except W Kentucky (2-0/49) has a loss. The Independents as a whole are expected to have teams on either end (all wins or all losses) based on history at this point and it’s true now. Only UCONN (1-2/133) has both. The big surprise, of course, is Notre Dame staring 0-2 after losing at Ohio St and at home vs Marshall. I do have the Irish with the most difficult schedule so far this year, but still. The MAC is cannon fodder for P5 teams and the record shows that. The Mountain West is a bit disappointing after last year’s fast start even with Air Force (2-0/45) domination P5 Colorado 41-10. The Falcons were favored and easily covered. But even still, only two teas remain winless (Colorado St and Hawaii). The Sun Belt West has a winning record with only Southern Miss winless and that would have been news a couple of years ago. The Sun Belt has made a ton of great moves to bolster the conference and the “weaker” division at 8-6 is testimony. Their brethren to the East are 10-4 and arguably having the best showing (even better than the Big Ten East) so far. Let me show you what I mean.
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Let’s start with the perfect division. The Big Ten East is taking care of business. Short of Notre Dame (who usually is better than they are so far this year) at Ohio St, the only other non-conference P5 foe was at Boston College (0-2/108). Their in-conference opponents were Illinios (2-1/39) and at Purdue (1-1/62). So, 4 P5 opponents with a combined record of 3-6, two of them at home. In fact, 12 of the 14 games were in friendly stadia. Their 8 G5 opponents (4 from the MAC, 2 from the MWC, and 1 each from C-USA and the Sun Belt) combined for 4-14 this year. So, FBS foes were a combined 7-20. The two FCS cupcakes combined for 0-4 so far. 7-24 (.226). Even taking out the 14 losses to this group leaves 7-10 (.411). Here’s team by team in a table:
| Team/Rank | Opponents | Opp Rec | Next Opponent |
| Michigan St (3) | W Michigan (1-1/94) – Akron (1-1/114) | 2-2 | @Washington (2-0/27) |
| Michigan (12) | Colorado St (0-2/106) – Hawaii (0-3/86) | 0-5 | UCONN (1-2/133) |
| Penn St (14) | @Purdue (1-1/62) – Ohio (1-1/70) | 2-2 | @Auburn (2-0/33) |
| Ohio St (16) | Notre Dame (0-2/51) – Arkansas St (1-1) | 1-3 | Toledo (2-0/42) |
| Maryland (24) | Buffalo (0-2/89) – Charlotte (0-3/116) | 0-5 | SMU (2-0/36) |
| Rutgers (29) | @Boston College (0-2/108) – Wagner (0-2/177) | 0-4 | @Temple (1-1/82) |
| Indiana (35) | Illinois (2-1/39) – Idaho (0-2/160) | 2-3 | W Kentucky (2-0/49) |
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When we look at this data, we see 3 of the teams have played opponents who are still looking for their first win! As a division, their opponents are 7-24, but looking at the next game (all played in week 3), they are facing 5 current undefeated teams and a combined 12-3 (.800) record. Both P5 games are on the road and 1 G5 is a road game (a nice change of pace from the 13 out of 14 games at home this week). Maybe they run the table again this week, and if they do, I’ll make it the story. This will, by far, be the most challenging week so far for this group. But, as I alluded, this is not the story. With the quality, to date, of their opponents so far, we’d almost expect this type of performance.
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The story is about the Sun Belt East. I doubt anyone would have guessed or, even less so, bet, that this division would start 10-4. No conference games yet, but 7 games against P5 teams (3 more than the B1G East) and 5 away games (3 more). Oh, yeah, and they are a G5 conference so those P5 games are supposed to be a “thank you for playing, here’s your check” type of thing. For a long time, the Sun Belt accommodated that approach, but they just keep getting better. Here is a team-by-team breakdown so far this year.
| Team/Rank | Opponents | Opp Rec | Next Opponent |
| James Madison (2-0/ 37) | Middle Tennessee (1-1/109) – Norfolk St (0-2/164) | 1-3 | App St (1-1/56) |
| Marshall (2-0/44) | Norfolk St (0-2/164) – @Notre Dame (0-2/51) | 0-4 | @Bowling Green (0-2/ 111) |
| Ga Southern (2-0/46) | Morgan St (0-2/185) – Nebraska (1-2/102) | 1-4 | @UAB (1-1/101) |
| Coastal Carolina (2-0/ 54) | Army (0-2/119) – Gardner Webb (1-1/163) | 1-3 | Buffalo (0-2/89) |
| App St (1-1/56) | UNC (3-0/30) loss – @Texas A&M (1-1/118) | 4-1 | Troy (1-1/107) |
| Georgia St (0-2/77) | @South Carolina (1-1/68) loss – UNC (3-0/30) loss | 4-1 | Charlotte (0-3/116) |
| Old Dominion (1-1/122) | Virginia Tech (1-1) – @East Carolina (1-1/81) loss | 2-2 | @Virginia (1-1/74) |
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The subtitle of this post alludes to this division. They are 4-3 against Power 5 opponents who are a combined 10-7. Old Dominion’s hangover loss at East Carolina put their G5 record at 2-1 against opponents who have gone 2-4. Their 6-4 against the FBS and those opponents are 12-11 (.522) and 8-5 (.615) against everybody else. So, they have 4 more losses than the B1G but have played tougher competition. Oh yeah, they are 3-2 on the road with all 3 wins against P5 opponents. They are 7-2 at home with both losses coming in close games (2 points and 7 points) against UNC. When you look at upcoming games, their next opponents (all next week except for James Madison who has a bye), the opponents are a combined 3-11 (.214) with only one P5 foe. I’m more likely to think this division will continue to win at a solid rate more than the B1G remaining perfect. But that’s not the thing either. Notre Dame and Texas A&M were both preseason outside chance to be in the playoffs. Granted the Irish were already out most likely after a week 1 loss to Ohio St, but now, we have to wonder what kind of seasons these two teams are going to have at all. Forget post season. Virginia Tech isn’t what they used to be during the 10-win season streak, but still would have expected to beat Old Dominion. Nebraska is such a train wreck they fired their coach after watching Ga Southern march up and down the field all day (I think I mentioned this before). This division is doing more to shape this season than any other to this point. Not only have we seen battles between App St and Coastal Carolina the last few years, but they added James Madison who was an FCS powerhouse and is expected to compete immediately (we’ll see in two weeks when they host giant-killer App St). They also accepted a transfer from 3 Conference USA teams (yes, the one that fights with the MAC for worst conference normally). Those teams (Old Dominion who beat Virginia Tech and Marshall who beat Notre Dame) are already contributing to the overall strength. Southern Miss joined the Sun Belt West but are 0-2 against the 4th most difficult schedule. Watch this division race closely. The winner may be 9-3 but it will be because of stiff competition more than rolling over for the big guys.
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That’s it for the day. Thank you for reading and I hope you found it entertaining. If you didn’t or see an error or just want to make a suggestion/complaint, send me a comment. If you like what you see, please forward to others. I’ll see you in a couple of days for Week 3 games and, finally, predictions. One last thought, speaking of predictions, Vegas had UTEP beating New Mexico St -17.0, but in the only game the GCR could predict, I had them -4.0. Final score: UTEP 20 NMST 13. G
