Welcome to the newest episode of the GCR (#405 in the series, if you are counting). It’s roughly the midway point of the season (most teams have played 6 games), so it’s a good idea to start thinking through the playoffs, both FBS and FCS.
…..
Let’s start with the 12-team FBS playoff. The format is the top 4 seeds go to the highest ranked (AP poll) conference champions (could be Core 4 or Group of 5, but not Notre Dame, who is not in a conference, or the winner of the Pac-12 at least for this year because there are only 2 teams). The next seeds go to the next highest 8 teams, with the highest ranked Group of 5 team, if not in the top 12, getting the 12th spot. More than one G5 team can qualify, but it’s a top 12 thing. Notre Dame only qualifies if they are in the top 12, but even if they were #1 in the poll, they would get the 5th spot (I see them losing to Army and the game against Navy is currently a pick, so they will not be in the top 12). The committee has already announced that the Army/Navy game will not be considered (unless of course they meet in the AAC championship game). Note: a conference winner could be ranked outside of the top 4 (or even the top 12) and still be guaranteed a top 4 spot. The first round is a) 5 vs 12, b) 6 vs 11, c) 7 vs 10, and d) 8 vs 9 and are played at the higher seed’s home field. The second round will feature 1 vs d) winner, 2 vs c) winner, 3 vs b) winner, and 4 vs a) winner. There will be no reseeding if there is an upset. Right now, the GCR (though not the AP poll) has Army (6-0/9) as the highest ranked Group of 5 team.
…..
To look at who might make the playoff, I started with any Core 4 team undefeated in their conference or ranked in the GCR top 25. Then I looked at the predictions (which will change every week) for the rest of the year. Then I looked at any possible conference championship game (some conferences had 3-way ties or 2-way ties for second). Then I ranked the teams based on how the GCR thinks, assuming the predictions are accurate. Here is each conference:
| Conf/Team | Predicted Record | Predicted Losses | Champ Game | Final Seed |
| ACC | ||||
| Miami FL (6-0/6) | 12-0/8-0 | none | WIN | 4 |
| Pittsburgh (6-0/8) | 12-0/8-0 | none | LOSS | 8 |
| SMU (5-1/19) | 10-2/7-1 | Pittsburgh | — | — |
| Clemson (5-1/20) | 10-2/7-1 | Pittsburgh | — | — |
| Duke (5-1/25) | 9-3/5-3 | Miami FL, Pittsburgh | — | — |
| Big 12 | ||||
| Iowa St (6-0/2) | 12-0/9-0 | none | WIN | 2 |
| BYU (6-0/5) | 12-0/9-0 | none | LOSS | 6 |
| Kansas St (5-1/14) | 10-2/7-2 | Iowa St | — | — |
| Texas Tech (5-1/23) | 10-2/7-2 | Iowa St | — | — |
| Big Ten | ||||
| Indiana (6-0/3) | 12-0/9-0 | none | WIN (Oregon or Penn St) | 3 |
| Penn St (6-0/4) | 12-0/9-0 | none | Win (Oregon) or LOSS (Indiana) | 7 |
| Oregon (6-0/7) | 12-0/9-0 | none | LOSS (Indiana or Oregon | 5 |
| Ohio St (5-1/10) | 9-3/6-3 | Indiana, Penn St | — | — |
| Nebraska (5-1/18) | 9-3/6-3 | Indiana, Ohio St | — | — |
| Illinois (11-1/22) | 10-2/7-2 | Oregon | — | — |
| SEC | ||||
| Texas (6-0/1) | 12-0/8-0 | none | WIN (Tennessee or Texas A&M) | 1 |
| Tennessee (5-1/11) | 11-1/7-1 | none | LOSE | 10 |
| Alabama (5-1/13) | 10-2/6-2 | Tennessee | — | — |
| Texas A&M (5-1/16) | 10-2/7-1 | Texas | LOSE | — |
| Georgia (5-1/17) | 9-3/5-3 | Tennessee, Texas | — | — |
| Missouri (5-1/21) | 10-2/6-2 | Alabama | — | — |
…..
The early cut for the GCR has no Alabama, no Georgia, no Ohio St. None of them win out or make their respective championship games. I know the AP poll will give credit to 2-loss teams that the GCR doesn’t, necessarily, so if the committee published today, this would look very different. Just saying what the numbers show.
…..
Next, I looked at Group of 5 (and Pac-(1)2) who were ranked in the GCR top 50. Here’s what that looks like:
| Conf/Team | Predicted Record | Predicted Losses | Champ Game (if needed) | Final Seed |
| AAC | ||||
| Army (6-0/9) | 11-0 (does not include Army/Navy game) | none | WIN (Navy or Memphis) | 9 |
| Navy (5-0/19) | 10-0-1 (pick vs Notre Dame – does not include Army/Navy game) | pick vs Notre Dame | WIN (Memphis) or LOSS (Army) | — |
| Memphis (5-1/35) | 11-1 | none | LOSS (Army or Navy) | — |
| North Texas (5-1/40) | 9-3 | Army, Memphis | — | — |
| USA | ||||
| Liberty (5-0/24) | 11-0 (1 game canceled due to Helene) | none | WIN | — |
| Sam Houston (5-1/42) | 10-2 | Liberty | LOSS | — |
| MWC | ||||
| Boise St (5-1/31) | 11-1 | none | WIN | 11 |
| UNLV (5-1/37) | 11-1 | none | LOSS | — |
| PAC-12 | ||||
| Washington St (5-1/34) | 11-1 | none | none | — |
| SUN | ||||
| James Madison (5-1/29) | 11-1 | none | WIN | 12 |
| Louisiana (5-1/48) | 11-1 | none | LOSS | — |
| ULM (5-1/39) | 10-2 | Louisiana | — | — |
…..
At the halfway point of the season, this is the way it looks to me:
Game 1: 9) Army at 8) Pittsburgh
Game 2: 10) Tennessee at 7) Oregon
Game 3: 11) Boise St at 6) BYU
Game 4: 12) James Madison at Penn St
Round 2 would be:
1) Texas vs Game 1 winner
2) Iowa St vs Game 2 winner
3) Indiana vs Game 3 winner
4) Miami FL vs Game 4 winner
…..
But the 12-team playoff is just part of the story. The FCS has something going on as well. First, the Ivy League does not participate in the post season. The winners of the MEAC (predicted to be NC Central) and the SWAC (Jackson St), two HBCU conferences will play in the Celebration Bowl. The other 10 conference champions will receive automatic spots, but not necessarily in the top 8 of the 24-team playoff. Only the top 8 (including some not-conference champions) get seeded and they get a first-round bye. The remaining 16 (including some conference champions) are paired by location with the idea of having as little travel as possible. All games are on the higher FCS AP poll team’s campus until the Championship Game which is held in Frisco, Texas. Montana St with their 7th win became the first FCS team to qualify for the playoffs. Yep, it takes 7 wins (out of 11 games) to be considered. Here’s how I see the field right now (BOLD indicates conference champions).
| Team/Conf | Round 1 Opponent/Conf |
| Montana St/Big Sky | 1 Seed |
| Mercer/Southern | 2 Seed |
| Delaware/Colonial | 3 Seed |
| South Dakota/Missouri Valley | 4 Seed |
| SEMO/Big South-Ohio Valley | 5 Seed |
| Butler/Pioneer | 6 Seed |
| North Dakota St/Missouri Valley | 7 Seed |
| South Dakota St/Missouri Valley | 8 Seed |
| Tarleton/United Athletic | Incarnate Word/Southland |
| UC Davis/Big Sky | Montana/Big Sky |
| New Hampshire/Colonial | Duquesne/Northeast |
| C Arkansas/United Athletic | Tennessee St/Big South-Ohio Vally |
| North Dakota/Missouri Valley | Drake/Pioneer |
| Steph F Austin/Southland | Stony Brook/Colonial |
| Davidson/Pioneer | Georgetown/Patriot |
…..
That’s it for this time. Tune in tomorrow for this week’s G’s Expectations with predictions for every game. Thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
