Hello, oh great and wonderful college football fans. For those in the US who are not laboring today, Happy Labor Day. For those working in restaurants or entertainment or retail, etc., thank you for working the holiday. We are nearing the end of the long week 1 of college football with Mississippi and Louisville facing off in Atlanta tonight. Today’s blog is not about the rankings (although some calculation changes I made last year mean the GCR will publish after next weekends games – a full 2 weeks earlier than ever before).
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The GCR does not have a preseason. Before the first game is played all 257 Division I schools are equal. I don’t guess when it comes to the math. But the AP does take a poll and the sportswriters (who, granted have access to teams and coaches) do guess. Here’s how they did:
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25: Arizona St beat FCS S Utah 41-14 (1-0 overall, 1-0 vs FCS) as expected
24: Utah beat FCS Weber St 40-17 (2-0 overall, 2-0 vs FCS) as expected
23: Louisiana lost at #21 Texas 38-18 (2-1 overall, 2-0 vs FCS, 0-1 vs top 25) this is an example of “just because a team was good last year”. The Cajuns were fantastic last year and may be this year, but the Longhorns were too much for them.
22: Coastal Carolina beat FCS Citadel 52-14 (3-1 overall, 3-0 vs FCS, 0-1 vs top 25) as expected
21: Texas beat #23 Louisiana (4-1 overall, 3-0 vs FCS, 1-1 vs top 25) does this mean Texas is going to be a major player in the Big 12? Who knows (see comments under #23)?
20: Washington lost to FCS Montana 13-7 (4-2 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 1-1 vs top 25) I don’t think there’s anything I can add to this to stress the wild guessery of preseason polls
19: Penn St beat #12 Wisconsin 16-10 (5-2 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 2-1 vs top 25) this was a great old fashioned Big 10 game (no score at the half) that someone had to lose – both teams look like top 25 teams, but it’s one game
18: Iowa beat #17 Indiana 34-6 (6-2 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 3-1 vs top 25) – see notes on #23 on Indiana
17: Indiana lost to #18 Iowa 34-6 (6-3 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 3-2 vs top 25) – see above
16: LSU lost to UCLA 38-27 (6-4 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 0-1 vs Power 5, 3-2 vs top 25) – for the last few years this would have been a major upset – but, is LSU deserving of the top 25 and/or should the voters have picked the 2-0 Bruins?
15: Southern Cal beat Group of 5 San Jose St 30-7 (7-4 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 1-0 vs G5, 0-1 vs P5, 3-2 vs top 25) as expected
14: Miami FL lost to #1 Alabama 44-13 (7-5 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 1-0 vs G5, 0-1 vs P5, 3-3 vs top 25) are the Tide that much above the rest of the league? Were the Hurricanes caught up in an awful week for the ACC preseason ranked elite (spoiler alert – they were 0-3)?
13: Florida beat Group of 5 FAU 35-14 (8-5 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 2-0 vs G5, 0-1 vs P5, 3-3 vs top 25) as expected
12: Wisconsin lost to #19 Penn St 16-10 (8-6 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 2-0 vs G5, 0-1 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) in a great game
11: Oregon beat Group of 5 Fresno St 31-24 (9-6 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 3-0 vs G5, 0-1 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) in a game where the Ducks were trailing with less than 8 minutes to play
10: UNC lost to Virginia Tech 17-10 (9-7 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 3-0 vs G5, 0-2 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) in a game that was close the entire time, but a top 10 team should be able to beat an unranked opponent on the road
9: Notre Dame beat Florida St 41-38 in OT (10-7 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 3-0 vs G5, 1-2 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) with the Seminoles nearly pulling off the upset despite being down 20 points
8: Cincinnati beat fellow Group of 5 Miami OH 49-14 (11-7 overall, 3-1 vs FCS, 4-0 vs G5, 1-2 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) as expected
7: Iowa St beat FCS N Iowa 16-10 (12-7 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 4-0 vs G5, 1-2 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) in a game where the Cyclones won the second half…3-0
6: Texas A&M beat Group of 5 Kent St 41-10 (13-7 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 5-0 vs G5, 1-2 vs P5, 3-4 vs top 25) in a game where the Aggies were sluggish, but put it away as expected
5: Georgia beat #3 Clemson 10-3 (14-7 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 5-0 vs G5, 1-2 vs P5, 4-4 vs top 25) in a game with no offensive TDs (UGA had a pick 6)
4: Ohio St beat Minnesota 45-31 (15-7 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 5-0 vs G5, 2-2 vs P5, 4-4 vs top 25) in a game that was within a TD until 4:39 to play
3: Clemson lost to #5 Georgia 10-3 (15-8 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 5-0 vs G5, 2-2 vs P5, 4-5 vs top 25) in a game in which the Tigers did not score in the first half for the first time in 144 games
2: Oklahoma beat Group of 5 Tulane 40-35 (16-8 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 6-0 vs G5, 2-2 vs P5, 4-5 vs top 25) in a game that should have been in New Orleans except for Ida and the Green Wave were just a yard away from keeping a potential winning drive going as the 4Q was closing
1: Alabama beat #14 Miami FL 44-13 (17-8 overall, 4-1 vs FCS, 6-0 vs G5, 2-2 vs P5, 5-5 vs top 25) which looked like a top tier team
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To sum up: of the 5 top 25 vs top 25 games, 3 were won by the lower ranked team. A mere 2-2 against non-ranked Power 5 opponents, and an FCS loss. Only 14 of the higher ranked team won overall, and 4 others (Oklahoma, Iowa St, Oregon, and Notre Dame could have been losses – not what one typically expects from the top 25. But at this point in the season they are guessing on what teenagers (or just barely past) will do under pressure. And that’s why the GCR does not assign values before the season starts.
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Here’s another thing about preseason rankings that irks me just a little. UGA and Clemson were both top 5. Let’s say Clemson struggles (which is possible due to the sheer amount of talent they lost last year) and ends up a respectable 9-4 but unranked. In the crazy accounting of college football, Georgia would still get “credit” for a top 5 win. In the GCR when I publish vs top 25 rankings, it’s current as of the publication, not where x team was when the game was played.
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All of that fun stuff made me look into a way to identify upsets this early and I identified 4 ways that make sense. First, an FCS team can beat a Power 5 team. That happened twice in week 1: Montana beat Washington and E Tennessee St beat Vanderbilt. Secondly, an FCS team can beat a Group of 5 team. That happened 4 times: UC Davis beat Tulsa, Holy Cross beat UCONN, E Washington beat UNLV, and South Dakota St beat Colorado St. The third way is for a non-division I opponent to beat an FCS school (P5 and G5 don’t play non-division 1 opponents) and that happened 3 times: S Connecticut beat C Connecticut, West Florida beat McNeese, and Indiana Wesleyan beat Valparaiso. The final way is for a Group of 5 squad to beat a Power 5 team and that happened 6 times: Charlotte upended Duke, N Illinois bested Georgia Tech, UTSA beat Illinois, BYU downed Arizona, Nevada topped California, and Utah St dropped Washington St.
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In the FCS these upsets by conference look like this:
Big Sky 3-0 (Montana, UC Davis, E Washington)
Patriot 1-0 (Holy Cross)
SoCon 1-0 (E Tennessee St)
Missouri Valley 1-0 (South Dakota St)
Northeast 0-1 (C Connecticut)
Pioneer 0-1 (Valparaiso)
Southland 0-1 (McNeese)
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In the Group of 5 it looks like this:
Conference USA 2-0 (Charlotte, UTSA)
MAC 1-0 (N Illinois)
Mountain West 2-2 (winners: Nevada, Utah St; losers: UNLV, Colorado St)
Independents 1-1 (winner: BYU; loser UCONN)
American 0-1 (Tulsa)
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And in the Power 5
Big 10 0-1 (Illinois)
SEC 0-1 (Vanderbilt)
ACC 0-2 (Duke, Georgia Tech)
Pac 12 0-4 (Washington, Arizona, California, Washington St)
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There’s still a lot of football to go and all will be made clear between now and December. Until then, thanks for reading. If you didn’t like something, please comment and let me know. If you did like what you read, please forward to others. The GCR and this blog are always free of charge. G
