Good evening Sports Fans. In today’s G’s Evaluation, I mentioned a few upsets. Let’s start there. The GCR picks upsets (meaning the GCR predicts a different winner than Vegas) every week. Last week, a very sad 5-11 (but 10-6 against the spread) is not what I mean. The week before I was 8-9 in those games (11-6 ATS) so I didn’t pick the “right” upsets. There were 61 total games involving FBS teams and the Vegas underdog outscored the opponent 20 times – or 32.7%. Every conference, except the Sun Belt, were including in some way. 18 of them were conference games, some of which will have an impact on the major bowls and/or playoffs. Every week there are some, but this was the first true “upset week” of this campaign. In Week 4, the home team won 48 of the 67 contests or 71.6%. In Week 5, 35 of 61 or 57.4% – all of this is related. Here’s a list of all by conference:
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Army and Oregon each got their first loss, but the amazing thing to me was 8 of the 11 AAC teams were involved in an upset, 1/2 of the Pac 12, and 8 of 14 of the SEC. It was a wild one. But so what? First, Army was unlikely to be chosen for the G5 New Year’s Six unless they were the only undefeated team left so not much harm there. Oregon’s loss, however, probably did two things: first, the Pac 12 will need a Miracle of 34th Street type cascade of losses across other conferences to be in the Playoffs (primarily because the rest of the conference is struggling – only Oregon St (31) and Arizona St have a single loss and we aren’t even half way through the season). It also means that Cincinnati (14) or BYU (12) have the best chance of any G5 team (especially after beating Notre Dame (33) on the road) of being selected to the final four. They will have to win out and let the natural attrition within the other conferences keep the light on for them. Any major post season aspirations for any team that suffered their second lost in the list above, is gone. Depending on the conference late December/early January bowl is possible, but New Year’s Six is probably out of the question – again, unless the rest of the league starts losing like crazy.
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Speaking of that, there are still a number of perfect teams. In the FCS there are 11, by conference:
AQ7/WAC Challenge: Sam Houston 4-0 (53), Big Sky: UC Davis 5-0 (41) and E Washington 5-0 (43), Colonial: James Madison 4-0 (52) and Rhode Island 4-0 (63), Ivy League: Harvard 3-0 (72), Princeton 3-0 (77), and Dartmouth 3-0 (78), Missouri Valley: North Dakota St 4-0 (62) and South Dakota St 4-0 (66), and in the Southern: E Tennessee St 5-0 (43). Note the Big South, Northeast, Pioneer, Patriot, Ohio Valley, Southland, and the SWAC have no perfect teams left.
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In the Group of 5, only 7 teams remain, by conference:
AAC: Cincinnati 4-0 (14), SMU 5-0 (18), Conference USA: UTSA 5-0 (17), Independents: BYU 5-0 (12), Mountain West: Wyoming 4-0 (27) and San Diego St 4-0 (29), and the Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina (19). Note: the MAC has no perfect teams left
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In the Power 5, 10 remain, by conference
ACC: Wake Forest 5-0 (8), Big 12: Oklahoma St 5-0 (4), and Oklahoma 5-0 (11), Big Ten: Iowa 5-0 (2), Michigan 5-0 (6), Penn St 5-0 (7), and Michigan St 5-0 (10), SEC: Georgia 5-0 (1), Alabama 5-0 (3), Kentucky 5-0 (5). Note: the Pac 12 and Notre Dame are no longer perfect.
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Seven of the 10 are in the Big 12 or the SEC – hmmm, might be a good midweek blog to look at conference comparisons.
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But, that’s all there is tonight. Thanks for reading and, if you like what you read, please share with others. Until next time, G
