Happy Monday, oh great and wonderful college football fans. Last time, we finished the preseason strength of schedule (PS SOS) for the FCS teams and, as the title says, time is getting short to complete the analysis for the FBS. For those who may not be as familiar with terminology, FCS is the Football Championship Series and houses those Division I (as opposed to Division II, Division III, NAIA, Junior Colleges, etc.) that are not eligible to play in bowl games. Seems sad, but the top 24 (given some requirements for conference champions and avoiding those conferences that choose not to participate) are paired off for a real and actual playoff. The better/higher ranked team (by the committee not necessarily the FCS top 25 poll) hosts until the championship game which is held annually in Frisco, Texas, just before the FBS championship game. There are 128 teams in 13 conferences (Big Sky, Big South/Ohio Valley, Colonial, Ivy, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Patriot, Pioneer, Southland, SoCon, SWAC, and UAC) plus Kennesaw St as the lone independent this year. The Ivy League (8), MEAC (6), and SWAC (12) do not participate in the playoffs (and Kenn St is not eligible because it is transitioning to Conference USA next year), which brings the eligible teams to 101. To qualify for the playoffs, a team either needs to win one of the ten conferences or be one of the 14 at-large bids (requires a minimum of 7 wins). There is a single bowl game, the Celebration Bowl, pitting the champions of the MEAC and SWAC.
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The FBS, or Football Bowl Championship Series, is made up of 133 teams this year (including the addition of Jacksonville St and Sam Houston, who were both FCS teams last year). The FBS is broken up into 2 sections: the Power 5 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, SEC, and Notre Dame) and the Group of 5 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and the remaining independents). 82 of these teams will be invited to a bowl game, with a requirement of 6 wins AND a .500 record (if a team plays 13, they have to win 7, unless that 7th loss was in the conference championship game). No more than 1 of the wins can be against an FCS opponent (last season Army and App St both were 6-6, but had 2 wins against FCS teams so were ineligible for bowl games). If there are not enough teams, Hawaii is the first option (if they are 6-7), but any other 6-7 or 5-7 team could steal a bid based on academics or a team (such as a very good James Madison) who promoted from FCS and is in their second year of transition. BTW, an NCAA rule states that any team playing a game in Hawaii can play a 13th game (or 12th game if FCS), so Hawaii plays 13 every year.
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Today we are going to take a look at the 11th most difficult conference by PS SOS. For the purposes of conference comparison, I count the FBS independents, including Notre Dame, as a conference. As a reminder, the FCS average PS SOS was 2.729, but the average Group of 5 is 6.5305 while the Power 5 is 8.1979. The overall FBS average PS SOS is 7.3955. So, in 11th place and last in the FBS is Conference USA whose average PS SOS is 5.8395. A lot of changes in this conference during the offseason including losing Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA to the American Athletic Conference. That put C-USA in danger at just 5 member schools, so they brought in 2 independents (Liberty and New Mexico St) and accepted Jacksonville St and Sam Houston as promotions to FBS. Next season, they’ll accept Kennesaw St’s promotion as well, which will bring them to 10 full members later on. Rules stipulate that FCS promotions are not bowl eligible until year 3 (unless they qualify in year 2 and there aren’t enough teams that did qualify). The two new teams are not eligible to win the conference title either. Let’s look at the full conference. As a reminder, (P) indicates a Power 5 opponent and (F) indicates an FCS opponent. There is just one neutral site games (N) scheduled. Three of the teams have an easier schedule than the most difficult FCS schedule (Nicholls at 5.354) and New Mexico St plays the easiest slate in the FBS.
| Team/ Conf Rank | PS SOS/ Rank | ’22 Record/ SOS Rank | ’23 Opp’s W-L | Conf Home | Conf Away | Non-Conf Home | Non-Conf Away |
| Sam Houston (1) | 6.918/90 | 5-4/ 208 | 84-67 (.556) | (26-22) Jacksonville St, FIU, UTEP, Middle Tennessee | (27-25) Liberty, New Mexico St, LA Tech, W Kentucky | (5-7) (F) Kennesaw St | (26-13) (P) BYU, (N) Air Force, (P) Houston |
| Jacksonville St (2) | 6.641/101 | 9-2/ 201 | 78-72 (.520) | (25-26) UTEP, Liberty, W Kentucky, LA Tech | (24-24) Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee, FIU, New Mexico St | (12-13) (F) E Tennessee St, E Michigan | (17-9) Coastal Carolina, (P) South Carolina |
| Middle Tennessee (3) | 6.178/112 | 8-5/ 126 | 72-73 (.497) | (21-16) Jacksonville St, LA Tech, FIU, UTEP | (29-20) W Kentucky, Liberty, New Mexico St, Sam Houston | (5-18) (F) Murray St, Colorado St | (17-9) (P) Alabama, (P) Missouri |
| W Kentucky (4) | 6.112/113 | 9-5/ 117 | 76-70 (.521) | (28-20) Middle Tennessee, Liberty, New Mexico St, Sam Houston | (21-26) LA Tech, Jacksonville St, UTEP, FIU | (3-20) South Florida, (F) Houston Christian | (23-4) (P) Ohio St, Troy |
| LA Tech (5) | 5.930/117 | 3-9/83 | 77-70 (.524) | (25-23) FIU, W Kentucky, New Mexico St, Sam Houston | (30-17) UTEP, Middle Tennessee, Liberty, Jacksonville St | (11-14) (F) Northwestern St, North Texas | (11-14) SMU, (P) Nebraska |
| FIU (6) | 5.920/118 | 4-8/ 127 | 76-72 (.514) | (31-19) Liberty, UTEP, Jacksonville St, W Kentucky | (23-24) LA Tech, New Mexico St, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee | (9-16) (F) Maine, North Texas | (13-13) UCONN, (P) Arkansas |
| UTEP (7) | 5.113/131 | 5-7/ 118 | 76-71 (.517) | (27-25) LA Tech, New Mexico St, W Kentucky, Liberty | (26-19) Jacksonville St, FIU, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee | (17-9) (F) Incarnate Word, UNLV | (6-18) (P) Northwestern, (P) Arizona |
| Liberty (8) | 5.072/132 | 8-5/ 120 | 67-79 (.429) | (23-24) New Mexico St, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee, LA Tech | (27-22) FIU, Jacksonville St, W Kentucky, UTEP | (10-27) Bowling Green, Old Dominion, UMASS | (7-6) Buffalo |
| New Mexico St (9) | 4.671/134 | 7-6/ 131 | 60-94 (.390) | (26-19) FIU, Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville St | (25-26) Liberty, UTEP, LA Tech, W Kentucky | (1-22) UMASS, (F) W Illinois | (8-27) New Mexico, Hawaii, (P) Auburn |
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So that’s it for today. I know I had two conferences per post for the FCS, but with the FBS, one will do. Although it hurts my heart to see a 9-49 non-conference schedule (does the coach even pretend at media days?), I will end it here. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Please comment on any changes, things you’d like to see, and/or future analysis concepts, G
