The post-championship lull is over, oh great and wonderful college football fans. Since we last spoke, the GCR lost a wonderful long-term friend, my wife and I built our future retirement home, and our daughter maintained her 4.0 in college (as a math major, who could have figured that out?). And I would be remiss if I did not send a shout out to all the mothers out there – Happy Mother’s Day from the GCR!
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There have been some changes in the GCR as well. I’ve updated the home page and look forward to feedback from all of you fantastic readers to make it even better. You may notice a different heading. So far, the history of the GCR has been on college football, but there are other college sports I’d like to explore. If I had the time and resources (who knows what the future holds), I’d look at baseball and softball, but not yet. I am adding men’s and women’s basketball this fall. Speaking of history, the GCR began as a pure ranking model. I never intended to get into the prediction part of the game and certainly never wanted the focus of the model to shift to 100% predictions. I found that last year, I spent about 75% of my GCR time on predictions and not on understanding and analyzing the ranking. With the addition of two sports who will have a significant overlap, I’m backing off of predicting every game, but will continue to predict the games of the week and post-season games. The same will be true for basketball.
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Speaking of changes, we have 22 conference changes yet again this year (with 3-5, depending on Oregon St and Washington St) already lined up for next year. We have 2 new Division I teams joining the fray with the West Georgia Wolves joining the United Athletic Conference (UAC) and the Mercyhurst Lakers joining the Northeast Conference (NEC). With the breakup of the Pac-12, we no longer have a Power 5 grouping, but the going phrase is Core 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC plus Notre Dame). Here’s a helpful table to see the changes and the impact to the various conferences:
| Conference (group) | Teams Added | Teams Lost | Roster Change | Current Roster |
| ACC (Core 4) | California, SMU, Stanford | — | from 14 to17 | Boston College, California, Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami FL, NC St, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest |
| American (Group of 5) | Army | SMU | No change (14) | Army, Charlotte, East Carolina, FAU, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Rice, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA |
| Big 12 (C4) | Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah | Oklahoma, Texas | from 14-16 | Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas, UCF, Utah, West Virginia |
| Big Sky (FCS) | — | — | NC (12) | Cal Poly, E Washington, Idaho, Idaho St, Montana, Montana St, N Arizona, N Colorado, Portland St, Sacramento St, UC Davis, Weber St |
| Big South/OVC (FCS | W Illinois | Bryant, Robert Morris | from 10 to 9 | Charleston So, E Illinois, Gardner Webb, Lindenwood, SEMO, Tennessee Martin, Tennessee St, Tennessee Tech, W Illinois |
| Big Ten (C4) | Oregon, Southern Cal, UCLA, Washington | — | from 14 to 18 | Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Southern Cal, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin |
| Colonial (FCS) | Bryant | — | from 15 to 16 | Albany, Bryant, Campbell, Delaware, Elon, Hampton, Maine, Monmouth, New Hampshire, North Carolina A&T, Rhode Island, Richmond, Stony Brook, Towson, Villanova, William & Mary |
| C-USA (G5) | Kennesaw St | — | from 9-10 | FIU, Jacksonville St, Kennesaw St, LA Tech, Liberty, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St, Sam Houston, UTEP, W Kentucky |
| FBS IND (G5*) | — | Army | from 4-3 | Notre Dame, UCONN, UMASS |
| FCS IND (FCS) | Merrimack, Sacred Heart | Kennesaw St | from 1-2 | Merrimack, Sacred Heart |
| Ivy (FCS) | — | — | NC (8) | Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, Yale |
| MAC (G5) | — | — | NC (12) | Akron, Ball St, Bowling Green, Buffalo, C Michigan, E Michigan, Kent St, Miami OH, N Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, W Michigan |
| MEAC (FCS) | — | — | NC (6) | Delaware St, Howard, Morgan St, NC Central, Norfolk St, South Carolina St |
| MVC (FCS) | — | W Illinois | from 12 to 11 | Illinois St, Indiana St, Missouri St, Murray St, North Dakota, North Dakota St, N Iowa, South Dakota, South Dakota St, S Illinois, Youngstown St |
| Mtn West (G5) | — | — | NC (12) | Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St, Wyoming |
| NEC (FCS) | Mercyhurst, Robert Morris | Merrimack, Sacred Heart | NC (8) | C Connecticut, Duquesne, Long Island, Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, St Francis, Stonehill, Wagner |
| Pac 12 (G5) | — | Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Utah, Washington | from 12 to 2 | Oregon St, Washington St |
| Patriot (FCS) | — | — | NC (7) | Bucknell, Colgate, Fordham, Georgetown, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh |
| Pioneer (FCS) | — | — | NC (11) | Butler, Davidson, Dayton, Drake, Marist, Morehead St, Presbyterian, St Thomas, San Diego, Stetson, Valparaiso |
| SEC (C4) | Oklahoma, Texas | — | from 14 to16 | Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt |
| SoCon (FCS) | — | — | NC (9) | Chattanooga, Citadel, E Tennessee St, Furman, Mercer, Samford, VMI, W Carolina, Wofford |
| Southland (FCS) | — | — | NC (8) | Commerce, Houston Christian, Incarnate Word, Lamar, McNeese, Nicholls, Northwestern St, Southeastern |
| Sun (G5) | — | — | NC (14) | EAST: App St, Coastal Carolina, Ga Southern, Georgia St, James Madison, Marshall, Old Dominion, WEST: Arkansas St, Louisiana, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas St, Troy, ULM |
| SWAC (FCS) | — | — | NC (12) | EAST: Alabama A&M, Alabama St, Bethune, Florida A&M, Jackson St, Mississippi Valley, WEST: Alcorn St, Ark Pine Bluff, Grambling St, Prairie View, Southern, Texas Southern |
| UAC (FCS) | West Georgia | — | from 9 to 10 | Abilene Christian, Austin Peay, C Arkansas, E Kentucky, North Alabama, S Utah, Steph F Austin, Tarleton, Utah Tech, West Georgia |
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The upcoming changes are whatever ORST and WAST do (most likely joining the Mtn West conference especially if they can steal some existing C4 teams to join them, less likely joining an existing C4 conference) and a few known changes in 2025. First, Delaware will make the jump from FCS to Group of 5 when they leave the CAA and join Conference USA. Also to C-USA from the Missouri Valley Conference is Missouri St. A brand spanking new football team will play their inaugural season next year when they join the UAC conference. Please welcome (a year early) to the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley or Rio Grande in the GCR. I’m sure there will be more to come in the next 12 months, but that’s where we are today.
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Over the next 100 days or so, I’ll have blogs with the preseason strength of schedule (SOS) ranking by conference starting with the group playing the easiest schedule through the most challenging.
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Thank you for reading and sharing with others. I look forward to feedback on the new page. And I look forward to feedback on adding basketball to the GCR. My friend JW said I was insane to take it on and he may be right. We’ll find out. That’s it for today, G
