Greetings and welcome to Part IX of our Preseason SOS review. We are starting our deep dive into the Power 5 conferences. These are supposed to be the premier league of college football. Let’s see how this plays out. Last year, there were 12 FCS wins over FBS schools. Most were over G5 schools including UC Davis/Tulsa, E Washington/UNLV, South Dakota St/Colorado St, Holy Cross/UCONN, Duquesne/Ohio, Incarnate Word/Texas St and back to back FCS losses by UMASS to Rhode Island and Maine. We do expect the occasional Power 5 loss, I mean who can forget App St beating Michigan all those years ago? There’s something almost romantic about the David and Goliath story. It is rare, but does happen. 4 times last year. A 5-6 Jacksonville St team, who lost 31-0 at UAB in week one, stuck it to Florida St 20-17 in week two. The Seminoles ended up 5-7 (after an 0-4 start) and missed a bowl opportunity because of that game. A very good E Tennessee St (11-2) who lost in the FCS quarterfinals to eventual champion North Dakota St 27-3, started their campaign by beating a horrible Vanderbilt team whose only 2 wins were at Colorado St and UCONN, 23-3. It wasn’t even close. But this post is not about the ACC or the SEC. Both of the other FCS losses by P5 schools came against the PAC-12, which is today’s topic. At the same time Vandy was taking one on the chin, Montana (10-3, losing in the quarterfinals to now G5 James Madison) beat then AP #20 Washington (4-8 overall which is why preseason ranking is just ludicrous) by a score of 13-7. Then on September 18, Arizona (1-11 and just awful) lost to N Arizona (5-6) 21-19. Overall the conference was 7-2 against FCS foes. What about Group of 5 teams? Let’s start with BYU who played a Notre Dame/ACC type schedule with 5 games against the 12. On their way to a brilliant 10-3 season, the Cougars got half of their wins at the Pac-12’s expense going 5-0 (24-16 over Arizona, 27-17 over Arizona St, 35-31 over Southern Cal, 26-17 over eventual champion Utah, and 21-19 over Washington St). 8 Pac 12 teams had 5 or fewer conference wins. But BYU was really good so take them out and the conference was still just 6-5 in the regular season vs Group of 5 teams (losses to San Diego St by Arizona, and eventual champion Utah [yes, 2 G5 losses by the CHAMPION], Fresno St by UCLA [who had just beaten LSU], Nevada by California, and Utah St by Washington St). That 6-10 regular season mark means against the FCS and Group of 5 they managed a paltry 13-12 record. That LSU win wasn’t their biggest because Oregon invaded Columbus and beat Ohio St (yes, Oregon lost twice to Utah who was 0-2 against Group of 5 teams). Stanford did beat pathetic Vanderbilt, but the conference lost their other 8 regular season non-conference P5 matchups. So, 3-8 in P5 games takes us to 16-20 in non-conference games. But it gets worse. The only Pac 12 team NOT to lose their bowl game was UCLA (NC St) because it was COVID cancelled! That’s right. The first takeaway only 6 out of 12 got bids (compare to the SEC record 13 [all but Vandy] out of 14). But they lost them all! Utah lost to Ohio St by a FG (no shame there). Wisconsin topped Arizona St 20-13. Oklahoma took down Oregon 47-32. 3 more losses to P5 schools takes them to 3-11 against “peers”. But it gets worse. Washington St lost to C Michigan of the MAC 24-21 and Utah St got a second P12 belt notch by taking down the Beavers of Oregon St 24-13. So, the non-P5 record drops below .500 at 13-14, and the non-conference record falls to 16-25 or just .390. Which means that a Power 5 conference finished 9 games under .500 at 71-80 (.470) including conference games. They had two 10-game winners, Utah and Oregon, who were exactly 10-4. No offense to Conference USA, but these are CUSA numbers, not a Power 5 conference.
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But things could be different this year. In 5th (or “E”) position in terms of PS SOS, the 12-team Pac 12 average PS SOS 7.404 compared to the 8.029 P5 average and the 7.348 FBS (P5 and G5) average. The fall of this once great conference (and the lack of money that comes from that fall and from games not in prime time for most of the country) kind of helps understand why UCLA and Southern Cal are jumping ship. Not to mention rumors about the Big 12 gobbling up teams. I think we may be seeing the beginning of the end or a demotion to G5 with team changes of this storied conference. It’s sad. Only 2 of the teams face top 25 schedules (just 3 in the top 50!) and 4 are in the bottom 8 of the P5, mostly because they get to play each other, but also because some of the teams aren’t facing non-conf challenges. For the P5, the table will look a little different with all opponents listed somewhere. (G) means Group of 5, (F) means FCS, (N) means neutral site. Non-conference opponents will have their 2021 results listed and the (XX-YY) number following the lists of home/away conference games are the combined 2021 results of those respective teams. Here they are from toughest to silliest (yes, I’ve lost all respect, sorry):
| Team | 21 W-L /SOS Rank | 22 SOS/Rank | Home Conference Games | Away Conference Games | NCH | NCA | Summary |
| Stanford (N) | 3-9/51 | 9.013/10 | Southern Cal, Oregon St, Arizona St, Washington St (26-25) | Washington, Oregon, California, UCLA, Utah (37-27) | (F) Colgate (5-6), (G) BYU (10-3) | Notre Dame (11-2) | 89-63 (.586) |
| Arizona (S) | 1-11/57 | 8.368/25 | Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Washington St, Arizona St (33-31) | California, Washington, Utah, UCLA (27-23) | Mississippi St (7-6), (F) North Dakota St (14-1) | (G) San Diego St (12-2) | 93-63 (.596) |
| Colorado (S) | 4-8/54 | 8.021/39 | UCLA, California, Utah, Arizona St, Oregon (41-24) | Arizona, Oregon St, Southern Cal, Washington (16-33) | TCU (5-7) | (G) Air Force (10-3), Minnesota (9-4) | 81-71 (.532) |
| Washington (N) | 4-8/66 | 7.550/55 | Stanford, Arizona, Oregon St, Colorado (15-34) | UCLA, Arizona St, California, Oregon, Washington St (38-24) | (G) Kent St (7-7), (F) Portland St (5-6), Michigan St (10-2) | — | 76-73 (.510) |
| Southern Cal (S) | 4-8/56 | 7.533/56 | Arizona St, Washington St, Colorado, California (24-26) | Stanford, Oregon St, Utah, Arizona, UCLA (29-34) | (G) Rice (4-8), (G) Fresno St (10-3), Notre Dame (11-2) | — | 78-73 (.517) |
| Oregon St (N) | 7-6/55 | 7.513/57 | Southern Cal, Washington St, Colorado, California, Oregon (30-33) | Utah, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona St (25-26) | (G) Boise St (7-5), (F) Montana St (12-3) | (G) Fresno St (10-3) | 84-72 (.538) |
| Utah (S) | 10-4/31 | 7.503/59 | Oregon St, Southern Cal, Arizona, Stanford (15-34) | Arizona St, UCLA, Washington St, Oregon, Colorado (37-27) | (F) S Utah (1-10), (G) BYU (10-3) | Florida (6-7) | 71-80 (.470) |
| Oregon (N) | 10-4/35 | 7.379/63 | Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Utah (25-25) | Washington St, Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon St (24-38) | (F) E Washington (10-3), (G) BYU (10-3) | (N) Georgia (14-1) | 83-70 (.542) |
| Arizona St (S) | 8-5/75 | 6.925/82 | Utah, Washington, UCLA, Oregon St (29-22) | Southern Cal, Stanford, Colorado, Washington St, Arizona (19-42) | (F) N Arizona (5-6), (G) E Michigan (7-6) | Oklahoma St (12-2) | 72-78 (.480) |
| California (N) | 5-7/85 | 6.653/90 | Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA (26-36) | Washington St, Colorado, Southern Cal, Oregon St (22-28) | (F) UC Davis (8-4), (G) UNLV (2-10) | Notre Dame (11-2) | 69-80 (.463) |
| Washington St (N) | 7-6/49 | 6.406/100 | Oregon, California, Utah, Arizona St, Washington (37-28) | Southern Cal, Oregon St, Stanford, Arizona (15-24) | (F) Idaho (4-7), (G) Colorado St (3-9) | Wisconsin (9-4) | 68-82 (.453) |
| UCLA (S) | 8-4/74 | 5.983/122 | Washington, Utah, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA (22-40) | Colorado, Oregon, Arizona St, California (27-24) | (G) Bowling Green (4-8), (F) Alabama St (5-6), (G) South Alabama (5-7) | — | 63-85 (.426) |
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That’s if for this one. It’s sad for us college football fans to see. what was once such a great conference, turn into this mess. My guess is more teams will leave (more than likely to the Big 12 which is going to put a lot of pressure on the ACC, but that’s another post) and the teams that are left will merge with the Mountain West to make a Group of 5 super conference. Hope you enjoyed this rant a bit. If not, please post a comment and let me know how I can improve. If so, please share the site with others. Thanks, G
