Welcome back oh great and awesome college football fans. Last time, we started a study into expected strength of schedules (SOS) by conference from easiest to hardest. We looked at the 3…least challenged conferences, Pioneer, Ivy, and Northeast and now we are going to dive into the 23rd to the 21st most difficult conferences. As a reminder, the preseason SOS is equivalent, though not exactly, to the number of FBS wins a team’s average opponent for 2022 had in 2021. Hope that makes sense.
…..
Starting with the 6-team Southland Conference at 23rd and averaging 2.280. They also added one of the three new Division I teams with Texas A&M Commerce, who I’ll abbreviate as TAM Commerce or COMM. Keep in mind in these tables the FCS AVG (because these conferences are all FCS) is the percentage of league mean) and D1 AVG is the same for all 261 teams in the FBS and FCS (Division I). I put these in to give an idea of comparison to peers. Here are all 6 Southland teams from most difficult to not so much order.
| Team | ’21 W-L | ’21 SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS | PS SOS Rank | FCS AVG | D1 AVG |
| SELA | 9-4 | 163 | 3.145 | 168 | 117.1% | 62.6% |
| Nicholls | 6-5 | 138 | 2.411 | 212 | 89.8 | 48.0 |
| Houston Baptist | 0-11 | 256 | 2.148 | 225 | 80.0 | 42.7 |
| McNeese | 4-7 | 194 | 2.143 | 226 | 79.8 | 42.6 |
| Northwestern St | 3-8 | 213 | 2.122 | 228 | 79.0 | 42.2 |
| TAM Commerce | — | — | 1.715 | 250 | 63.9 | 34.1 |
…..
In the 22nd (out of 26) spot with an average PS SOS of 2.319, is the MEAC who along with the Ivy and the SWAC do not participate in the FCS playoff. The Celebration Bowl is an annual game between the winners (usually) of the MEAC and the SWAC and was one last year by South Carolina St in an upset of favored Jackson St. SCST plays both Clemson and South Carolina this year which gives them the “honor” of the first FCS top 25 preseason SOS mention this year. There are also 2 teams in the bottom 6, so not a lot of consistency. Here are all 6 teams of the conference:
| Team | ’21 W-L | ’21 SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS | PS SOS Rank | FCS AVG | D1 AVG |
| South Carolina St | 7-5 | 151 | 3.343 | 156 | 124.5% | 66.5% |
| Norfolk St | 6-5 | 145 | 3.066 | 174 | 114.2 | 61.0 |
| Morgan St | 2-9 | 206 | 2.218 | 218 | 82.6 | 49.1 |
| Howard | 2-8 | 226 | 2.109 | 231 | 78.5 | 42.0 |
| Delaware St | 5-6 | 258 | 1.595 | 256 | 59.4 | 31.7 |
| NC Central | 6-5 | 205 | 1.584 | 257 | 59.0 | 31.5 |
…..
Our last conference for today coming in at 21st is the 7-team Patriot League averaging just 2.322. Last year Holy Cross not only blew away the conference, but also won a playoff game for what is, at least since I started looking at the FCS a few years ago, the weakest conference in D1. One interesting thing about the Patriots is it hosts the most commonly played rivalry between Lehigh and Lafayette. That’s all I got: here are all 7:
| Team | ’21 W-L | ’21 SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS | PS SOS Rank | FCS AVG | D1 AVG |
| Bucknell | 1-10 | 226 | 2.903 | 182 | 108.1% | 57.8% |
| Colgate | 5-6 | 227 | 2.817 | 186 | 104.9 | 56.1 |
| Lehigh | 3-8 | 246 | 2.370 | 213 | 88.3 | 47.2 |
| Lafayette | 3-8 | 191 | 2.163 | 223 | 80.6 | 43.0 |
| Holy Cross | 10-3 | 219 | 2.159 | 224 | 80.4 | 43.0 |
| Georgetown | 2-8 | 256 | 2.040 | 236 | 76.0 | 40.6 |
| Fordham | 6-5 | 163 | 1.803 | 248 | 67.1 | 35.9 |
…..
And that’s it for today. I hope you are enjoying these. If not, let me know in the comments, if so, please share with others. See you soon for the next three leading towards the most difficult conference in college football from a projected SOS perspective. Spoiler alert: it probably is not who you are thinking…hmmm, G
