Happy MAC Nation Tuesday, everyone!! I’m watching Eastern Michigan (108/96) against Northern Illinois (82/78). It’s 14-7 Eagles right now with less than a minute in the half, but the GCR predicts the Huskies will come back and win (63.1%). Ohio (72/68) is at Bowling Green (167/118) and should get the road win (64.5%). They are up 31-21 with 6:45 to go in the half. Overall this week, the pre-rivalry week, there are 121 games, some of which are meaningful like Penn State (8) at Ohio State (4) or Texas (22) at Baylor (5) or even Temple (57) at Cincinnati. Some are…not really games as much as scrimmages. For example, Western Carolina (251/122) at Alabama (3), or Samford (165/117) at Auburn (9). Tune in Thursday for a G’s Expectations to figure out which other games to watch (not the last two games mentioned).
But while this is the penultimate week in the FBS regular season, it is the final week (except for 2 games in the non-playoff participating SWAC) for the FCS teams. A great deal is on the line as 24 of the 99 participating teams will get to play on (compare to 78 of the 130 in the FBS). The participating conference (not the Ivy, MEAC, or SWAC) champions (there are no championship games) receive an automatic bid, with the remaining 14 spots going to at-large teams. Today’s exploration is into who the GCR calculates as in. Here’s the chart:
| Position | Team | Record | Conference | Auto Bid? |
| 1 | James Madison (64/1) | 10-1 | Colonial | Yes |
| 2 | Central Conn (70/3) | 10-1 | Northeast | Yes |
| 3 | Monmouth (85/5) | 9-2 | Big South | Yes |
| 4 | North Dakota St (88/6) | 11-0 | Missouri Valley | Yes |
| 5 | Wofford (96/9) | 7-3 | Southern | Yes |
| 6 | Montana (100/10) | 9-2 | Big Sky | Leading |
| 7 | Austin Peay (114/18) | 8-3 | Ohio Valley | Leading |
| 8 | San Diego (140/33) | 8-2 | Pioneer | Yes |
| 9 | SE Louisiana (153/40) or Nicholls (159/44) | 7-3 7-4 | Southland | Winner in |
| 10 | Holy Cross (168/50) | 6-5 | Patriot | Yes |
| 11 | South Dakota St (90/7) | 8-3 | Missouri Valley | |
| 12 | UT Martin (93/8) | 7-4 | Ohio Valley | |
| 13 | Kennesaw St (103/11) | 9-2 | Big South | |
| 14 | C Arkansas (105/12) | 8-3 | Southland | |
| 15 | Illinois St (111/14) | 8-3 | Missouri Valley | |
| 16 | SE Missouri (113/17) | 8-3 | Ohio Valley | Possible |
| 17 | Villanova (115/18) | 8-3 | Colonial | |
| 18 | Furman (120/20) | 7-4 | Southern | |
| 19 | McNeese St (123/21) | 6-5 | Southland | |
| 20 | Sacramento St (124/22) Weber St (135/29) | 8-3 8-3 | Big Sky | Possible If Auto |
| 21 | Northern Iowa (125/23) | 7-4 | Missouri Valley | |
| 22 | Dayton (131/25) | 7-3 | Pioneer | |
| 23 | S Illinois (132/26) | 7-4 | Missouri Valley | |
| 24 | Davidson (133/27) | 8-3 | Pioneer |
First we see 7 teams have punched their ticket via a conference championship. In the chart, if the Auto Bid? column reads Leading, it means that the team is in the driver’s seat to get an Auto Bid. A couple of special cases will make this weekend extra fun. In the Big Sky, 3 teams are tied at 6-1 in the conference. Montana is 9-2 and in the driver’s seat while Sacramento State and Weber State are both 8-3. If Montana beats Montana State (161/46) – GCR 52.4% and Sacramento State bests UC Davis (190/65) – GCR 73.9% and Weber State loses to Idaho State (222/93), then Sacramento State will get the Auto Bid. If Montana loses while Sacramento State and Weber State both win, Weber State is in. If Montana and Weber State win while Sacramento State loses, Montana wins. If all 3 win or lose, Montana wins. That’s totally clear, right? If Weber State loses, I don’t see them in the playoffs. Likewise in the Ohio Valley conference, where the highest ranked team cannot win the division and is playing an FBS game this week, there is a tie for first and if both win or lose, Austin Peay will get the Auto Bid, but if they lose and SE Missouri wins, SEMO will get the Auto Bid. UT Martin will almost definitely get an at large bid. In the Southland, the two leaders are tied in the conference and playing each other. Nicholls State is playing at Southeast Louisiana in a winner gets to play again, loser go home type scenario. The GCR picks SELA to win 60.0%.
You have to admit it – the FCS playoff system with it’s 24 team, 14 team wild card scenario has lots of intrigue. I don’t profess to know exactly how the FCS committee figures out the at-large bids or the seeds (which is really important because a) the top 8 seeds get a first-round bye and b) the higher seeded team plays at home at least until the Frisco Texas final). I do think these 24 (or 26) teams have the highest likelihood of being in the mix somehow.
As of right now Ohio has pulled away from Bowling Green 45-24 with 14:09 in the 3rd while Eastern Michigan is making a fool of the GCR prediction up 21-10 with 8:39 to go in the 3rd.
Here’s wishing a great week(end) of college football. I sincerely hope your team wins or at least plays well. Send your comments and questions – I’ll do my best to answer them (some of them are really good and difficult). We are continuing to grow, so thank you and keep up the good sharing with others work.
Thanks, G
