G’s Exploration or I Guess I Just Don’t Understand

Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to this new installment of the GCR 2025 preseason review. Last time we talked about the Ivy League, who came in 25th of 25 in terms of most difficult expected schedule (check out our Facebook page, Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football, or http://bit.ly/2019GCR for previous postings). This episode will be blissfully short. Let me explain why.

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Before the 2024 season, 2 members of the Northeast Conference (NEC) decided to shift their allegiance to the Metro Athletic Conference (aka MAAC, which is featured in both the GCR’s men’s and women’s basketball rankings) which does not play football. The NEC did not want them as football only schools, so they had no option but to become FCS Independents. There are tremendous advantages for a team to be in a conference, especially at the FCS level, because of the 24-team playoff. That shows when you consider that Merrimack and Sacred Heart are the only 2 Independent teams in the FCS.

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So, they aren’t a conference, although they do play each other. They aren’t very good teams (both 5-6 last year) and probably won’t make the playoffs without significant improvement. The NEC filled their spots, and most conferences aren’t close to being too small (except the MEAC, by design). So, I guess they will just be independent for a while. Despite the fact that Merrimack is playing 2 Group of 5 teams (albeit not very good ones last season), Sacred Heart has the more difficult schedule. In the table below, (F) indicates a non-“conference” FCS opponent, (D) indicates a non-Division I, meaning FBS (Core 4 and Group of 5) and FCS patsy, and (G) indicates a Group of 5 (American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and UCONN) foe.

TeamHome2024 Record (Rank)2025 PS SOS (Rank)Home GamesAway Games
Sacred Heart Pioneers (1)Fairfield, CT5-6 (222)3.74 (213)Stonehill (F), Delaware St (F), Howard (F), Lynchburg (D), MerrimackLehigh (F), Long Island (F), Norfolk St (F), C Connecticut (F), Montana (F), Mercyhurst (F), Villanova (F)
Merrimack Warriors (2)North Andover, MA5-6 (204)2.80 (259)St Anselm (D), C Connecticut (F), Robert Morris (F), Maine (F), Fordham (F)Kent St (G), Kennesaw St (G), Stony Brook (F), Harvard (F), Colgate (F),
Sacred Heart

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I mentioned last week that this is the last season using the “old” preseason strength of schedule (SOS) method. One of the issues with that method is a winless team is “equal” in value no matter what league they are in. For example, if Kansas, a Core 4 team, went 0-12, Kent St, a Group of 5 team went 0-12, and Long Island, an FCS team, went 0-11, each would count as 0 with no “bonus” for playing that team away. In the scenario given above, those teams are not equal if they played each other, so they shouldn’t be equal in the preseason SOS either. That will be corrected for next season. I do have to say, it’s great to have a true mathematician on board (thanks JoJo) who can help me figure some of the mechanics out.

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That said, that’s it for this week. Thank you for reading and I ask you again to share with others so that we can grow our readership. Please and only if you like what you read. If you would have suggestions for improvement, we are all ears and want to hear from you. Comment on any Facebook post or on the website. In appreciation, G