G’s Exploration or In This Episode: Conferences 16-14

Posted on by G Robert

And here we are again. As Robert Heinlein wrote in “Time Enough for Love”, ‘Life is short, but the days are long.’ There are more rumors and discussions about how this season is going to work out. I wouldn’t bet a nickel that all of this preseason work I’m doing will play out as scheduled. There will be some changes. But, let’s be frank, I don’t care. First, I really like doing the analysis and if that makes me some sort of demented math guy, then guilty. Ha. Second, and someone let me know if I’m alone in this, I seem to have a good deal of time on my hands in the evening. If you can’t apply math to available time, just what kind of day would that be? Am I right?

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This episode is nearing the end of the FCS preseason SOS ranks. In the earlier ones I explained the process behind the calculation and last time I added a comparison to last year as well as last year’s record. So each entry will read like this. Team: average opponent adjusted win total (rank among 257 Division I teams) [2019 final SOS rank out of 256 teams: 2019 record]. So I was wondering if anyone had the question of the rank comparison vs the actual SOS rating comparison from last year. The short answer is the ratings are not compatible. During the season there are a slew of factors including opponent’s opponent’s schedule that are not in the simplified preseason SOS rating. So the ranks are a better comparison. But back to the action: today we look at the next 3 conferences in order of average preseason SOS. We start with #16 Colonial, then Southern, finishing up today with Big Sky. Next time we will finish up with the 2 most difficult FCS conferences followed by an overall picture. Then we move to the FBS.

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Colonial Athletic Association, a conference of 12 teams including last year’s runner-up, James Madison. They are 16th in preseason SOS with an average of 4.155. Here’s the team by team look.

  1. Richmond: 4.727 (143) [160: 5-7]
  2. Stony Brook: 4.693 (145) [188: 5-7]
  3. Elon: 4.523 (153) [141: 5-6]
  4. James Madison: 4.500 (154) [207: 14-2]
  5. Villanova: 4.455 (158) [219: 9-4]
  6. Maine: 4.307 (169) [172: 6-6]
  7. Delaware: 4.136 (178) [147: 5-7]
  8. William & Mary: 3.932 (191) [143: 5-7]
  9. Rhode Island: 3.830 (198) [146: 2-10]
  10. Towson: 3.818 (200) [132: 7-5]
  11. Albany: 3.534 (225) [194: 9-5]
  12. New Hampshire: 3.409 (231) [151: 6-5]

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Richmond has 3 relatively difficult games that vault them to the top of this list: @ Pittsburgh (8-5 worth 12 points), @ Yale (9-1 worth 6.75 points), and James Madison (14-2 worth 7 points). New Hampshire on the flip side has only game worth more than 5 points (@ Towson, 7-5). When you look at the 3 at the bottom of this list, you can see they all had winning records with much more difficult schedules last year. Look for them to compete with James Madison. The top heavy scheduled teams all had losing records last year and that trend looks likely to continue.

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The Southern Conference or SoCon has 9 teams who average 4.194 for 15th place.

  1. East Tennessee St: 5.080 (134) [156: 3-9]
  2. Citadel: 4.773 (141) [239: 6-6]
  3. Chattanooga: 4.420 (161) [168: 6-6]
  4. VMI: 4.341 (164) [216: 5-7]
  5. Samford: 4.318 (166) [173: 5-7]
  6. W Carolina: 3.932 (191) [148: 3-9]
  7. Furman: 3.818 (200) [180: 8-5]
  8. Mercer: 3.636 (213) [193: 4-8]
  9. Wofford: 3.432 (229) [115: 8-4]

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East Tennessee is the second team so far to top 5.000 on average and they did it with a pretty balanced schedule at 2 big road games: Georgia (12-2 worth 18 point) and Austin Peay (11-4 worth 8.25 points). Expect them and The Citadel to struggle this year. Wofford has just 2 games worth more than State’s average, both worth 6: @ Furman (8-5) and at South Carolina (4-8). Based on the numbers above the Wofford/Furman game should decide this conference.

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One of my favorite FCS conferences, for no discernible reason other than a fascination with this part of the country is #14 the Big Sky Conference home to 13 teams spread across the Wild Wild West. They average 4.242 and have the first team in our series to have a schedule ranked in the top half of all teams, at 127th of 257 and, of course for balance, they have the team with the easiest schedule. Here’s the list:

  1. Cal Poly: 5.443 (127) [157: 3-8]
  2. Portland St: 4.545 (151) [198: 5-7]
  3. Idaho: 4.534 (152) [136: 5-7]
  4. Montana St: 4.500 (154) [190: 11-4]
  5. E Washington: 4.432 (160) [181: 7-5]
  6. N Colorado: 4.420 (161) [191: 2-10]
  7. Sacramento St: 4.318 (166) [164: 9-4]
  8. S Utah: 4.170 (174) [177: 3-9]
  9. UC Davis: 4.114 (180) [119: 5-7]
  10. N Arizona: 4.045 (184) [189: 4-8]
  11. Idaho St: 4.000 (186) [126: 3-9]
  12. Weber St: 3.795 (203) [155: 11-4]
  13. Montana: 2.830 (257) [134: 10-4]

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Cal-Poly has 4 big road games that take them into the (sort-of) upper crust: California (8-5, 12 points), Montana (10-4, 7.5), Montana St (11-4, 8.25), and Sacramento St (9-4, 6.75). It will be a long season. On the flip side Montana who made the FCS playoffs last year (and have got to be close to a lock to repeat) have 7 of their first 9 games against teams worth 3 points or less. Their toughest game? The finale hosting Montana St (11-4) worth…5.5 points. Look for Weber St and Montana to run away with this conference.

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That is it for this episode. I hope you enjoyed it and are feeling the anticipation as we get close to ending the FCS look and shift to FBS. See you in a couple of days. G