Happy Sunday, college football fans. Normally on Sunday I post the latest and greatest GCR from 1 to however many have played so far this year. But, there are 2 more games this week. Tonight at 7:30 (all times Eastern), Washington St travels to LA to play Southern Cal. Right now, in Conference USA, W Kentucky is on top of host Charlotte 17-0 early in the 3rd. I’ll post either late tonight or first thing in the morning, but figured I could get some analysis in today. In a normal year there are 4 posts a week: G’s Evaluation which is typically just the ranking on Sunday afternoon followed by G’s Explanation later that evening which analyzes the weekend’s games. Early the next week is G’s Exploration which could be anything like comparing conferences or evaluating perfect teams or just a general rant. Then on the day of the first game, I post the predictions in G’s Expectations. This year got off to a slow start so I backed off. Today I wanted to combine an Exploration with an Explanation. Except for the tables below, I won’t put current rankings in the prose because they will be different after today’s games (at least some of them).
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Last week, I was taken a little aback by multiple 80% decile upsets. Sorry I have to suppress a yawn because this week there was another one AND 3 90% decile upsets!! 4 undefeated teams fell to the wayside. Let’s get into this a little bit. Previously undefeated W Michigan was a 99.9% favorite who lost AT HOME to previously winless E Michigan. Washington fell from the perfect elite to a Stanford team facing just a 6.3% chance to win. At 92.5%, Marshall had a chance to go 8-0 before Rice invaded. 5 INTs including a pick six might have had something to do with that. The other major upset, for the second week in a row, Oregon lost at California despite being an 89.8% favorite.
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Two 9-0 teams met in what was a fantastic game yesterday with hail marys, long returns, bench-clearing brawls, and a tackle at the 1-yard line to preserve a 5-point victory. Coastal Carolina is now 10-0 and BYU falls to 9-1. The game existed because Liberty had to cancel. BYU stepped in – on Thursday morning – and said we’ll play. The Cougars were favored in Vegas -10.5, but the GCR picked the Chanticleers 57.6%. At 22-17 it was close. Based on a good number of first losses, the wheels started turning. How do the remaining perfect teams compare. Here is the obligatory table:
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While it is incredibly odd there are still 9 perfect teams (11 if you count 1-0 North Dakota St and S Illinois), it’s also odd that we still have over 50 games to play before the bowl season. Only 2 teams (Alabama and Cincinnati) have faced an aggregate winning opponent. By the way the parenthetical number next to the winning percentage is the number of teams played with a .500 or better record). Even more telling is only 4 have faced GCR 25 teams. If the playoff committee only took perfect teams, it’s mostly clear. Cincinnati has played a bunch of mediocre teams but no great teams. The game against Tulsa (which will likely be repeated in the AAC championship) could raise them or drop them from conversation. Coastal Carolina is making noise. A friend of mine asked me to make the case for them. Here you go. They are the only team (other than 4-0 Buffalo who beat Kent St (56) and Miami OH (61) in the nation to beat two 1-loss teams (Louisiana and BYU) – they were Vegas underdogs for both games. They, along with Notre Dame, won a road game against a ranked team (Louisiana who beat Big 12 leader Iowa St). Let’s look at SOS. At 60th they are only 11 places behind Alabama and on par with Notre Dame – and 50 places better than Ohio St. Let’s look at top 4 perfects without the GCR 25 games (logic being a look at how tough the rest of their schedule is). Alabama’s opponents are 38-37 so far. Remove the 13-3 record for their top opponents, and you get 25-36 or .410. Notre Dame opponents are a whopping 39-59. Take out Clemson and UNC (16-4) and it drops to 23-56 (.295) – seriously. Ohio St’s shortened schedule means smaller total numbers at 14-19 against. Remove Indiana (6-1) and it falls to 8-18 (.308). Coastal’s opponents are 47-50. Take out the ranked teams (18-2) and it falls to 29-48 or a closer to Alabama than the others .377. As of right now, their first 3 opponents were 4-20. Since then, 43-30 (.589). It hasn’t been cheap. They do not belong to a conference that designed the 2020 schedule to favor the “good” teams (yes, I have evidence that will be in a future G’s Explanation). In fact, most people who pay attention to the Sun Belt picked App St to win the East. They are winning by more than 20 points a game and have the second best scoring defense among the perfects (16.8) behind only Cincinnati (15.0). By the way, Notre Dame wins by 20 points a game as well – Ohio St by 23. If they win out at 12-0 including 2 wins over a team that beat the Big 12’s first place team…it’s a strong argument. While Cincinnati is getting a lot of press about actually being included in the playoff (they won’t unless a lot of stuff happens) because they are in the “premier” Group of 5 conference, if both go perfect, I would love to see them fight it out. How’d I do?
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I also did a look at the 19 1-loss FBS teams. Here’s that table:
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The thing I find most intriguing is the 9-1 teams that have a rematch. I’ve talked about Coastal Carolina and Louisiana enough. The ACC championship in 2 weeks has serious playoff impacts. If the Irish repeat, Clemson will be eliminated. If Clemson wins, Notre Dame’s weak non-Clemson SOS could eliminate them especially if it’s a blowout. If Alabama beats Florida, Ohio St wins the Big 10 even with their high-school level SOS, and Texas A&M wins its next two games soundly, the 4th spot is up for grabs. Let me be clear – all winning out and Notre Dame wins, the playoff will be Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio St, and Texas A&M. All winning out and Clemson wins a nail-biter, it’s Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St and either Notre Dame or Texas A&M. A Clemson blow-out drops the Irish and puts A&M in. If the Aggies lose or even struggle, the 4th is a difficult call which is why Cincinnati is being tossed around. If Florida wins out including beating Alabama, both of those teams are in which would put the loser of Notre Dame/Clemson out. Messy enough? Yes, my head is spinning too. FYI, I will take a moment to say that it seems both the Big Ten and the playoff committee are really wanting Ohio St to be included. They are this year and historically a great team. If the Buckeyes don’t get a sixth regular season game – should they be picked over a 1-loss team with a more difficult and complete schedule? I think not, but they don’t ask for my opinion or vote. These things should be decided on the field with no biases. 2020 is a screwed up year – I get it. If any year should be about this season’s resume and nothing else, it’s this one (hint to the committee: it should be like that every year).
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That’s it for today. By the way, W Kentucky is leading Charlotte 30-13 with 5 minutes to go. Thanks for reading and always for sharing with others, G
