Welcome back, sports fans, for the 496th episode of the GCR as we talk about the 3rd most challenged conference in college football, the 17-team ACC. We are just 13 days away from the first game of the season and our annual preseason countdown is nearly complete.
…..
I mentioned in a previous episode that the bonds of the ACC are weakening. There are a number of reasons that I’m aware of. First, the agreed to a ridiculous 12-year television/revenue sharing agreement that made leaving the conference a quarter-billion-dollar process for the exiting team. Certainly, it makes sense for a conference to want to hold on to its members, but some of the teams feel more like hostages. This is primarily true because just after this long-term deal, the SEC and Big Ten both expanded – the ACC potentials were left out. In fact, they can’t get out without paying the exorbitant fee until 2030. The second reason is about the revenue share. Both Florida St and Clemson have sued for more of a cut, adding more unhappiness for everyone. The recent adds of SMU, California, and Stanford lets us see the ATLANTIC COAST conference with the Pacific coast as a backdrop. The travel for football is bad enough, but basketball, volleyball, base- and softball, etc., who play more often than once a week is killer. Add Notre Dame as a full member except for football, although they play six of their twelve games against the ACC, and it’s just a little chaotic. Theoretically, if the Irish win all six games and there aren’t two breakaway teams, they could have enough wins to qualify for the championship game, except they aren’t in the ACC. This long-term deal was supposed to solidify and protect the conference following the late 2010s realignments, but, instead, has made the ACC the least stable of the Core 4 conferences.
…..
I suspect that, assuming no one wins a lawsuit or ponies up the big bucks, there will be an attempt at an exodus for their traditional powerhouses: Florida St (Big 12 or Big Ten), Clemson (Big Ten or Big 12), North Carolina (SEC or Big Ten), Virginia Tech (SEC or Big Ten), Miami FL (Big 12), at least. By the way, I don’t see FSU or CLEM for the SEC because their territory overlaps existing teams and doesn’t help the TV market. NCAR and VT are new lucrative markets that bring a lot of value. I also see California and Stanford crawling back to the new Pac-12 even though it “demotes” them to a Group of 5 conference, at least at first (success could lead to a re-“classification” if teams step up in schedule and results), or, possibly to the Big 12 which would reduce travel a little. SMU might hang on unless the Big 12 reaches out to them. That would just leave Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest. It’s not that these teams would not be open to joining other conferences, I just don’t see them as the driving force. The nine would qualify as a Core 4 conference but would likely add some American or Sun Belt teams to bring them back up to Core 4 typical of at least 14 schools. I could be wrong, and the entire conference be in a lovefest by 2030 such that they sign another 12-year deal, but that’s not the feeling I’m getting.
…..
In 2025, the ACC not only plays Notre Dame six times (Miami FL, NC St, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Stanford), but also SEC teams ten times. In week 1, Syracuse meets Tennessee in Atlanta, Florida St hosts Alabama, Clemson hosts LSU in the battle of the Death Valleys, and Virginia Tech fights South Carolina in Atlanta. Virginia Tech also hosts upstart Vanderbilt in week 2. Miami FL hosts Florida in week 4. Then there’s rivalry week with Georgia St/Georgia, Florida St/Florida, Louisville/Kentucky, and Clemson/South Carolina all in week 14. They play the Big Ten three times: Boston College/Michigan St, Duke/Illinois, and California/Minnesota and the Big 12 six times: Stanford/BYU, SMU/TCU, SMU/Baylor, Georgia Tech/Colorado, North Carolina/TCU, and North Carolina/UCF. That’s twenty-five games against non-conference Core 4 teams. Despite the internal turmoil, you have to tip your hat to the schedulers. The ACC, as a whole, is not shying away from competition.
…..
With every rule, there is an exception and that is Wake Forest. Of their eight conference games, only three had a winning record: SMU (11-3), Duke (9-4), and Georgia Tech (7-6). The other five were a combined 25-38 (.396). Their out-of-conference slate is an embarrassment: the only away game is at Oregon St (5-7). The are playing two teams from Conference USA, the weakest of the FBS conferences. One is against Kennesaw St (2-10) in just their second year after promoting from the FCS ranks and the other is first season promotee, Delaware (9-2 in their final FCS season). Then they cap off that home slate vs W Carolina (7-5) from the FCS Southern Conference (SoCon). Their SOS rank is 127th when there are only 68 Core 4 teams. In fact, the only FBS schools, all Group of 5, who have an easier slate are Buffalo (MAC), Akron (MAC), LA Tech (CUSA), N Illinois (MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Liberty (CUSA), San Jose St (Mountain West), Jacksonville St (CUSA), and Memphis (American). They should improve on their 4-8 record from last season, potentially being bowl-eligible, even make some noise in the conference, but I suspect they are a paper tiger.
…..
In the table below, (F) indicates a game versus an FCS foe, (G) indicates a match against a Group of 5 opponent, (4) indicates a non-conference Core 4 test, and (N) indicates a neutral site game. With no further ado, JoJo and I are honored to present the 3rd most difficult conference in this year’s preseason poll, the Atlantic Coast Conference.
| Team | Home | 2024 Record (Rank) | 2025 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away/Neutral Games |
| Syracuse Orange (1) | Syracuse, NY | 10-3 (24) | 10.52 (1) | UCONN (G), Colgate (F), Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Boston College | Tennessee (4N), Clemson, SMU, Georgia Tech, Miami FL, Notre Dame (4) |
| Stanford Cardinal (2) | Stanford, CA | 3-9 (62) | 9.52 (9) | Boston College, San Jose St (G), Florida St, Pittsburgh, California, Notre Dame (4) | Hawaii (G), BYU (4), Virginia, SMU, Miami FL, North Carolina |
| Duke Blue Devils (3) | Durham, NC | 9-4 (34) | 9.05 (16) | Elon (F), Illinois (4), NC St, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest | Tulane (G), Syracuse, California, Clemson, UCONN (G), North Carolina |
| Boston College Eagles (4) | Chestnut Hill, MA | 7-6 (54) | 9.05 (17) | Fordham (F), California, Clemson, UCONN (G), Notre Dame (4), SMU, Georgia Tech | Michigan St (4), Stanford, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse |
| SMU Mustangs (5) | Dallas, TX | 11-3 (9) | 8.67 (26) | East Texas (F), Baylor (4), Syracuse, Stanford, Miami FL, Louisville | Missouri St (G), TCU (4), Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, California |
| Clemson Tigers (6) | Clemson, SC | 10-4 (21) | 8.45 (37) | LSU (4), Troy (G), Syracuse, SMU, Duke, Florida St, Furman (F) | Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Boston College, Louisville, South Carolina (4) |
| Louisville Cardinals (7) | Louisville, KY | 9-4 (20) | 8.39 (42) | E Kentucky (F), James Madison (G), Bowling Green (G), Virginia, Boston College, California, Clemson, Kentucky (4) | Pittsburgh, Miami FL, Virginia Tech, SMU |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8) | Atlanta, GA | 7-6 (45) | 8.28 (48) | Garner Webb (F), Clemson, Temple (G), Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Georgia (4) | Colorado (4), Wake Forest, Duke, NC St, Boston College |
| Pittsburgh Panthers (9) | Pittsburgh, PA | 7-6 (64) | 8.03 (53) | Duquesne (F), C Michigan (G), Louisville, Boston College, NC St, Notre Dame (4), Miami FL | West Virginia (4), Florida St, Syracuse, Stanford, Georgia Tech |
| Miami FL Hurricanes (10) | Miami Gardens, FL | 10-3 (17) | 8.02 (54) | Notre Dame (4), Bethune (F), South Florida (G), Florida (4), Louisville, Stanford, Syracuse, NC St | Florida St, SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh |
| NC St Wolfpack (11) | Raleigh, NC | 6-7 (73) | 7.98 (55) | East Carolina (G), Virginia, Virginia Tech, Campbell (F), Georgia Tech, Florida St, North Carolina | Wake Forest, Duke, Notre Dame (4), Pittsburgh, Miami FL |
| North Carolina Tar Heels (12) | Chapel Hill, NC | 6-7 (93) | 7.68 (75) | TCU (4), Richmond (F), Clemson, Virginia, Stanford, Duke | Charlotte (G), UCF (4), California, Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC St |
| California Golden Bears (13) | Berkeley, CA | 6-7 (84) | 7.48 (84) | Texas Southern (F), Minnesota (4), Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, SMU | Oregon St (G), San Diego St (G), Boston College, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Stanford |
| Florida St Seminoles (14) | Tallahassee, FL | 2-10 (56) | 7.25 (95) | Alabama (4), East Texas (F), Kent St (G), Miami FL, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech | Virginia, Stanford, Clemson, NC St, Florida (4) |
| Virginia Cavaliers (15) | Charlottesville, VA | 5-7 (59) | 7.08 (107) | Coastal Car (G), William & Mary (F), Stanford, Florida St, Washington St (G), Wake Forest, Virginia Tech | NC St, Louisville, North Carolina, California, Duke |
| Virginia Tech Hokies (16) | Blacksburg, VA | 6-7 (63) | 6.90 (113) | Vanderbilt (4), Old Dominion (G), Wofford (F), Wake Forest, California, Louisville, Miami FL | South Carolina (4N), NC St, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Virginia |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17) | Winston-Salem, NC | 4-8 (90) | 6.45 (127) | Kennesaw St (G), W Carolina (F), NC St, Georgia Tech, SMU, North Carolina, Delaware (G) | Virginia Tech, Oregon St (G), Florida St, Virginia, Duke |
…..
That’s it for today. We thank you for reading, always. We especially thank you for sharing with others on any of our platforms: bit.ly//2019GCR or Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football on Facebook or G Robert Gettys on LinkedIn. We look forward to any and all feedback, comments, or questions. Until next time, JoJo and G.
