G’s Exploration or Part III of XX Pre-Season SOS Analysis

Posted on by G Robert

Hello mostly home-bound college football fans. The debate on if/when/how games will or won’t happen this fall is beginning to heat up. Some are saying yes, some no, some say safety first, students only at the games, some schools have already announced fall classes will go forward. In reality, who knows, although while I was writing this, ESPN published a story that state and university officials will make determinations so there will be no uniform start – don’t ask me how the logistics work for that. So we have the GCR to keep us company. A few things before we start. First, if this is the first of the series that you’ve read, I encourage you to at least read the opening of the the first two to get the methodology. Second, I know I’m spending time on the FCS and a good many of you have never even heard of these conferences – I get it. But they are Division I and they should get their due. I am looking at 3 FCS conferences at a time so, after today’s post, just 2 more like this and then a summary of all FCS teams. Then we can move on to the Group of 5 (plus independents), I’ll do that in 2 conference clumps plus a summary and then the Power 5 will each get their own entry. The detail for the teams will also increase (for example by the time we get to the Power 5 we will look at each team’s hardest and easiest games, not just the top and bottom). Then after that summary, we’ll look at August/September, October, and November/December. Then I’ll publish all of the cuts in the final of the series. And third, a friend asked me the purpose of the pre-season SOS and how it impacts the season. Short answer after a long paragraph is, just for fun and to look forward to the season and absolutely nothing. The GCR has no preconceived values. When the season starts, everyone is at 0 (tied for 1st or last depending on your perspective).

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Starting in this post, I’ve added a couple of numbers. Now each conference will show the school: average preseason SOS (rank out of 257) [last year’s final SOS rank (out of 256): last season’s wins-losses]. If this preseason rank is lower than last year that team is facing a more difficult schedule, relatively speaking. Comparing that to last year’s performance could be an indicator of success or lack thereof for 2020.

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And now in 19th place, the Big South Conference with an average preseason SOS of 3.734 among it’s 7 teams. Here’s the breakdown:

  1. N Alabama: 4.739 (142) [171: 4-7]
  2. Campbell: 4.125 (179) [218: 6-5]
  3. Charleston Southern: 3.761 (208) [196: 6-6]
  4. Gardner Webb: 3.625 (214) [186: 3-9]
  5. Kennesaw St: 3.591 (217) [238: 11-3]
  6. Monmouth: 3.386 (233) [184: 11-3]
  7. Hampton: 2.913 (256) [230: 5-7]

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North Alabama plays two FBS teams on the road which is why their SOS is remarkably higher than the rest of the conference. First they face Virginia Tech (8-5 in 2019) worth 12 points and then BYU (7-6) later in the year worth 7.875. The rest of their schedule fits in pretty well except with Hampton. The Pirates first 6 opponents (2 of which are non-Division I) average 1.563 which is…pretty silly. Only a conference game at Kennesaw St (worth 8.25) kept them out of easiest schedule status.

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And that brings us to the MEAC (Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference) which comes in at 3.883, good for 18th most difficult division (schedule wise). Here are its 9 teams.

  1. Morgan St: 4.852 (140) [187: 3-9]
  2. NC A&T: 4.193 (173) [202: 9-3]
  3. Florida A&M: 3.953 (190) [185: 9-2]
  4. Norfolk St: 3.909 (193) [222: 5-7]
  5. Howard: 3.868 (196) [217: 2-10]
  6. NC Central: 3.795 (203) [215: 4-8]
  7. South Carolina St: 3.708 (207) [241: 8-3]
  8. Delaware St: 3.511 (226) [236 2-10]
  9. Bethune Cookman: 3.301 (238) [201: 7-4]

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Morgan St comes out on top of this conference because of a first weekend game at App St (13-1 last year) worth a whopping 14.625 points. Compare that to Bethune Cookman who faces just one team with a score of at least 6, at South Carolina St for exactly a half-dozen.

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And finally today we talk about conference number 17, The Southland and its 11 schools who average 4.107. See, they are getting better, right?

  1. Nicholls: 5.159 (131) [162: 9-5]
  2. Incarnate Word: 4.682 (146) [243: 5-7]
  3. Steph F Austin: 4.608 (149) [144: 3-9]
  4. Abilene Christian: 4.500 (154) [213: 5-7]
  5. C Arkansas: 4.318 (166) [150: 9-4]
  6. Northwestern St: 4.159 (175) [96: 3-9]
  7. McNeese St: 4.148 (177) [159: 7-5]
  8. SELA: 3.875 (194) [209: 8-5]
  9. Lamar: 3.341 (236) [195: 4-8]
  10. Sam Houston: (246) [248: 7-5]
  11. Houston Baptist: 3.170 (243) [249: 5-7]

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Nicholls takes the prize for first team to average more than 5 opponent win points throughout the season. It is helped by playing at last year’s 15-0 champion LSU on October 3rd – that game is worth a huge 22.5 points. The rest of their schedule is pretty much in line with their conference. Houston Baptist on the other hand plays only one 6-point team – at SELA.

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That’s it for this time. Please keep your comments coming. Next time (aiming for Wednesday), we start the look into the FCS power conferences with the Colonial, Southern, and Big Sky. See you next time and, as always, thanks for reading and sharing with others, G