Happy Wednesday and welcome to the first top 25 of the GCR year. There are 25 football conferences and, while the GCR has no preseason rank (all teams start the season tied for first or last, however you prefer to look at it), I do indulge in a little preseason analysis based on last year’s data. These rankings have absolutely nothing to do in impact to the ’24 season, but it’s fun anyway.
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The process is fairly straightforward and is based, at least in part, on the in-season Strength of Schedule formula. Basically, I look at last year’s wins for each team and add a value. The initial value is the “worth” of a game against that team at home. A higher value is counted for neutral sites and a higher value still for away games. The logic being it’s easier to beat a team at home. Then each value gets an adjustment based on the grouping (Core 4, the new Power 5, gets the highest adjustment, Group of 5 next, then FCS, then non-FCS, which gets the smallest adjustment). In other words, playing a 4-6 Ave Maria team is not worth as much as playing a 4-7 Dayton team. And so on. Playing Michigan in Ann Arbor provides the most points. Playing a winless team provides the least. The final adjustment is for teams that change leagues (moving to FCS, moving from FCS to Group of 5, and moving from Group of 5 to Core 4), are adjusted based on their previous year’s league). Then I simply take the average and rank them from 1-265. I take the average within each conference and rank the conferences 1-25.
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Our first conference, the Pioneer Football League, consists of 11 teams. None of the teams play a Core 4 or a Group of 5 team. They play 18 non-division I (division II, division III, or NAIA) games against 16 different teams whose combined record last year was 76-99. Six of the PFL members have PS-SOS in the bottom 25. The overall average PS-SOS is 1.955 and the average PS-SOS ranking is 242.7 (242 is 25th worst, FYI). In the table below, (D) indicates a non-D1 team, (F) indicates a non-conference game against other FCS teams. I give you the 2024 Pioneer Football League:
| Team | 2023 Record (Rank) | 2024 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away Games | Opp 2023 Rec |
| Stetson Hatters (1) | 3-8 (257) | 2.37 (214) | (27-40/.403) Ave Maria (D), Warner (D), Valparaiso, Marist, Presbyterian, Drake | (44-23/.657) Furman (F), Harvard (F), St Thomas, Davidson, Butler, San Diego | 71-63 (.530) |
| Morehead St Eagles (2) | 4-7 (232) | 2.36 (215) | (25-40/.385) Central St (D), Kentucky Christian (D), Valparaiso, Presbyterian, St Thomas, San Diego | (44-27/620) Montana (F), E Kentucky (F), Butler, Davidson, Dayton, Drake | 69-67 (.507) |
| Marist Red Foxed (3) | 4-7 (253) | 2.30 (222) | (24-33/.421) Georgetown (F), St Thomas, Presbyterian, Valparaiso | (35-37/.486) Lafayette (F), Bucknell (F), Davidson, Drake, San Diego, Stetson | 59-70 (.457) |
| Valparaiso Beacons (4) | 3-8 (259) | 2.09 (238) | (46-21/.687) Indiana Wesleyan (D), Roosevelt (D), Drake, Butler, St Thomas, Davidson | (27-39/.426) N Iowa (F), Youngstown St (F), Morehead St, Marist, Stetson, Dayton | 75-60 (.556) |
| San Diego Toreros (5) | 4-7 (256) | 2.07 (239) | (30-39/.435) C Washington (D), Cal Poly (F), Presbyterian, Davidson, Marist, Stetson | (31-26/.544) North Dakota (F), St Thomas, Morehead St, Drake, Dayton | 61-65 (.484) |
| Drake Bulldogs (6) | 8-4 (165) | 2.04 (242) | (25-30/.455) Quincy (D), Butler, Morehead St, San Diego, Marist | (32-36/.471) E Washington (F), South Dakota (F), Valparaiso, Presbyterian, St Thomas, Stetson | 57-66 (.463) |
| Presbyterian Blue Hose (7) | 4-7 (250) | 1.90 (257) | (35-33/.515) Lynchburg (D), Gardner Webb (F), Davidson, Dayton, Drake, Butler | (22-44/.333) Erskine (D), Mercer (F), San Diego, Stetson, Morehead St, Marist | 57-77 (.425) |
| Dayton Flyers (8) | 4-7 (255) | 1.76 (259) | (26-38/.406) Ave Maria (D), St Francis (F), Davidson, San Diego, Morehead St, Valparaiso | (24-31/.436) Indiana St (F), Butler, St Thomas, Marist, Presbyterian | 50-69 (.420) |
| St Thomas Tommies (9) | 8-3 (156) | 1.59 (261) | (34-44/.436) Sioux Falls (D), Black Hills St (D), N Iosa (F), San Diego, Stetson, Dayton, Drake | (21-33/.389) Lindenwood (F), Valparaiso, Butler, Marist, Morehead St | 55-77 (.417) |
| Butler Bulldogs (10) | 7-4 (161) | 1.56 (262) | (31-45/.436) Upper Iowa (D), Hanover (D), Lynchburg (D), Dayton, St Thomas, Morehead St, Stetson | (24-32/.429) Murray St (F), Davidon, Presbyterian, Drake, Valparaiso | 55-77 (.417) |
| Davidson Wildcats (11) | 7-4 (168) | 1.48 (263) | (27-39/.409) Catawba (D), Point (D), Marist, Stetson, Butler, Morehead St | (20-35/.364) Georgetown (F), Dayton, Valparaiso, Presbyterian, San Diego | 47-74 (.388) |
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Expect no team other than the champion with the automatic bid to make the FCS playoffs. No team is really stretching themselves to demand a lot of consideration for second place.
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That’s it for today. I hope you enjoy these. Let me know what you’d like to see more of, less of, different so that we can continue to make the GCR more enjoyable and meaningful. Thank you for reading and especially for sharing with others, G
I like the inclusion of the mascot this year!