Welcome back college football fans to the GCR’s 498th episode since starting this blog. Prior to that the episodes were sent via email to a very small number of people. At the midweek mark, we will have a special episode summing up the preseason Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings and some other cuts of the data. On Friday, our 500th episode will not only be on my mother’s 90th birthday but will also preview the week 0 games this Saturday. Yes, we are just 6 days away from college football! Obviously, the primary focus for us in college football (and basketball as of last season), but hitting the 500 milestone is very exciting. If you’d like to subscribe via email at no charge and with no ads and no sharing of personal information, check out our website at bit.ly/2019GCR – you can also check out past episodes. You can also find us on Facebook by searching for Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football (which also house college basketball now) or on LinkedIn by searching G Robert Gettys. I just started posting to LinkedIn when I retired from corporate life earlier this year, so GCR history is limited there.
…..
Back on May 14th, I posted about the Ivy League, the Division I conference with the easiest schedule, on average, based on the old-Style GCR calculations, for 2025. The official rankings last season used our original set of formulas for both actual SOS and performance scores, but I ran a beta test on a new, more accurate set of calculations which will proved to be more accurate and indicative of a team’s “value.” I did not have the predictive SOS calcs worked out yet so for the countdown this season, I used the old method. While the in-season calcs were a good deal more complicated, the preseason SOS has “always” been based on the average (adjusted) wins each team’s opponents have. Core 4 teams were not discounted, Group of 5 a little, FCS a little more, and non-D1 a lot. Playing away from home got a healthy bonus and playing a neutral site got a smaller bonus. Put all of it together and the result can be defined as the average number of wins a team’s average opponent had assuming a neutral site, normalized for a Core 4 team. In other words, a less-challenged FCS team with a 1.75 preseason SOS would say that on average they play pretty “bad” teams. A very-challenged team with a score of 10+ illustrates a very challenging schedule. The solution was never “accurate” and was only meant to be directional. Next preseason, we will use the new and improved numbers which will be both more accurate and meaningful.
…..
But that starts May 2026, and this post is about the most-challenged, on average, Conference in football. Starting with the Ivy League, we moved through the FCS conferences, including the two independents, then the Group of 5 conferences including the Pac-(1)2 and the two independents, then through the Big 12, the ACC, and the SEC. This year the “winners” of the GCR preseason countdown are the 18-team Big Ten. With back-to-back championships, they are looking for a three-peat with the likes of Oregon, Ohio St, Penn St, and Michigan. Even Illinois and Indiana made noise last season. Keep in mind that the GCR preseason SOS rank is not an indicator of success – harder schedules could actually indicate the opposite. I’m interested to see if Penn St can finally break through on playing and beating Top 5 teams (not successful historically) or if Oregon can finally win a championship. This is year two of the coast-to-coast conferences and the honeymoon is over. I’m wondering how much of the Big Ten story is going to be about the travel – certainly, we heard more about that in basketball season. The ACC is in the same boat, and to a smaller extent, the Big 12 (Arizona to West Virginia, Utah to UCF). But only time will tell, and the time is just about to start.
…..
In the table below, (F) indicates a game against an FCS foe, (G) indicates a match against a Group of 5 team, (4) indicates a non-conference Core 4 opponent, and (N) indicates a neutral site date. Without any further ado, JoJo and I are proud to announce the completion of the Preseason SOS countdown with the 2025 Big Ten Conference.
| Team | Home | 2024 Record (Rank) | 2025 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away/Neutral Games |
| Wisconsin Badgers (1) | Madison, WI | 5-7 (65) | 10.52 (2) | Miami OH (G), Middle Tennessee (G), Marylan, Iowa, Ohio St, Washington, Illinois | Alabama (4), Michigan, Oregon, Indiana, Minnesota |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2) | Piscataway, NJ | 7-6 (74) | 9.79 (5) | Ohio (G), Miami OH (G), Norfolk St (F), Iowa, Oregon, Maryland, Penn St | Minnesota, Washington, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio St |
| UCLA Bruins (3) | Pasadena, CA | 5-7 (51) | 9.74 (6) | Utah (4), New Mexico (G), Penn St, Maryland, Nebraksa, Washington | UNLV (G), Northwestern, Michigan St, Indiana, Ohio St, Southern Cal |
| Purdue Boilermakers (4) | West Lafayette, IN | 1-11 (33) | 9.49 (10) | Ball St (G), S Illinois (F), Southern Cal, Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio St, Indiana | Notre Dame (4), Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, Washington |
| Northwestern Wildcats (5) | Evanston, IL | 4-8 (72) | 9.19 (12) | W Illinois (F), Oregon, UCLA, ULM (G), Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota | Tulane (G), Penn St, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Illinois |
| Southern Cal Trojans (6) | Los Angeles, CA | 7-6 (42) | 9.13 (14) | Missouri St (G), Ga Southern (G), Michigan St, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, UCLA | Purdue, Illinois, Notre Dame (4), Nebraska, Oregon |
| Iowa Hawkeyes (7) | Iowa City, IA | 8-5 (35) | 9.12 (15) | Albany (F), UMASS (G), Indiana, Penn St, Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan St | Iowa St, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Nebraska |
| Michigan St Spartans (8) | East Lansing, MI | 5-7 (50) | 8.85 (20) | W Michigan (G), Boston College (4), Youngstown St (F), UCLA, Michigan, Penn St | Southern Cal, Nebraska, indiana, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland (N) |
| Penn St Nittany Lions (9) | University Park, PA | 13-3 (3) | 8.76 (23) | Nevada (G), FIU (G), Villanova (F), Oregon, Northwestern, Indiana, Nebraska | UCLA, Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan St, Rutgers |
| Oregon Ducks (10) | Eugene, OR | 13-1 (3) | 8.63 (27) | Montana St (F), Oklahoma St (4), Oregon St (G), Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Southern Cal | Northwestern, Penn St, Rutgers, Iowa, Washington |
| Ohio St Buckeyes (11) | Columbus, OH | 14-2 (1) | 8.61 (30) | Texas (4), Grambling St (F), Ohio (G), Minnesota, Penn St, UCLA, Rutgers | Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan |
| Washington Huskies (12) | Seattle, WA | 5-7 (65) | 8.59 (31) | Colorado St (G), UC Davis (F), Ohio St, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Oregon | Washington St (G), Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, UCLA |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers (13) | Minneapolis, MN | 8-5 (39) | 8.42 (40) | Buffalo (G), Northwestern St (F), Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan St, Wisconsin | California (4), Ohio St, Iowa, Oregon, Northwestern |
| Maryland Terrapins (14) | College Park, MD | 4-8 (49) | 7.83 (65) | FAU (G), N Illinois (G), Towson (F), Washington, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan | Wisconsin, UCLA, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan St (N) |
| Indiana Hoosiers (15) | Bloomington, IN | 11-2 (5) | 7.70 (73) | Old Dominion (G), Kennesaw St (G), Indiana St (F), Illinois, Michigan St, UCLA, Wisconsin | Iowa, Oregon, Maryland, Penn St, Purdue |
| Illinois Illini (16) | Champaign, IL | 10-3 (14) | 7.52 (83) | W Illinois (F), W Michigan (G), Southern Cal, Ohio St, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern | Duke (4), Indiana, Purdue, Washington, Wisconsin |
| Nebraska Huskers (17) | Lincoln, NE | 7-6 (44) | 7.41 (91) | Akron (G), Houston Chr (F), Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, Southern Cal, Iowa | Cincinnati (4N), Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA, Penn St |
| Michigan Wolverines (18) | Ann Arbor, MI | 8-5 (19) | 6.97 (111) | New Mexico (G), C Michigan (G), Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Maryland, Ohio St | Oklahoma (4), Nebraska, Southern Cal, Michigan St, Northwestern, Maryland |
…..
That’s it for today. Just six more days. I think I can make it. I think I can make it. Thank you for reading and, as always, sharing with others. The GCR is a completely free blog simply for entertainment and we are always looking for ideas to be more entertaining. See you next episode, JoJo and G
