Welcome back, college football fans, with just 4 days before the first games of the 2023-24 season. It’s time to finish up our preseason strength of schedule (PS SOS) analysis with the conference with the highest average score among all 25 Division I conferences. Our next post will be a “what to watch” for week zero and will come out on Friday.
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But this post is about the SEC. I know, I know, you are either an SEC fan and can’t wait to read about how tough the schedule is or you’re decidedly not an SEC fan and are trying to find a reason to call foul. Last post, the Big 12, I mentioned that they would have had the top average except for taking in 4 teams who played Group of 5 schedules in the American or as an Independent last year, and were slightly penalized for that. That methodology was used for every team in D1 including an anomaly in South Carolina. They are the only team who is facing opponents who won at least 100 games collectively last season (103-53 combined), but not only do they play FCS Furman (a really good FCS school last year), but they also play 2023 promotee Jacksonville St (an FCS team last year playing an FCS schedule, but a Conference USA team this year). The formula essentially treats the Gamecocks as playing 2 FCS teams. Despite this, and non-conference games against North Carilina and Clemson, they still come in at 11th overall, 5th in the SEC. Social media is all over Georgia for playing a weak schedule, and yes, they do have the weakest in the SEC, and below average PS SOS (good to remember they originally had Oklahoma on the schedule but the SEC asked to drop the game with conference realignment next year), but they join the rest of the SEC as the only conference in which no team faces opponents with a combined winning percentage below .500. In fact, Georgia and LSU tie for lowest at .533, 10 games above .500. One data point that helps drive that winning pct is every SEC team won at least 5 games last year. 11 made bowl games, but the three that did not were each 5-7. They have 6 teams in the top 20 PS SOS, 11 in the top 50, and average 8.4622 compared to a Power 5 average of 8.1979. In the table (N) indicates a neutral site game, (G) indicates a 2023 Group of 5 opponent, and (F) indicates a 2023 FCS foe.
| Team/ Conf Rank | PS SOS/ Rank | ’22 Record/ SOS Rank | ’23 Opp’s W-L | Conf Home | Conf Away/ Neutral | Non-Conf Home | Non-Conf Away/ Neutral |
| Florida (1) | 9.604/2 | 6-7/7 | 95-60 (.613) | (23-13) Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas | (45-22) Kentucky, South Carolina, (N) Georgia, LSU, Missouri | (17-19) (F) McNeese, (G) Charlotte, Florida St | (10-4) Utah |
| Mississippi (2) | 9.418/4 | 8-5/40 | 95-58 (.621) | (27-24) LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Arkansas | (40-13) Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi St | (16-19) (F) Mercer, Georgia Tech, (G) ULM | (12-2) (G) Tulane |
| Missouri (3) | 9.207/7 | 6-7/27 | 97-60 (.618) | (35-18) LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida | (34-19) Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas | (21-17) (F) South Dakota, (G) Middle Tennessee St, Kansas St | (7-6) (NG) Memphis |
| Kentucky (4) | 9.147/10 | 7-6/16 | 93-61 (.604) | (34-18) Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama | (37-16) Vanderbilt, Georgia, Mississippi St, South Carolina | (14-22) (G) Ball St, (F) E Kentucky, (G) Akron | (8-5) Louisville |
| South Carolina (5) | 9.121/11 | 8-5/22 | 103-53 (.660) | (27-24) Mississippi St, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky | (37-16) Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M | (30-8) (F) Furman, (G) Jacksonville St, Clemson | (9-5) (N) North Carolina |
| Vanderbilt (6) | 8.729/19 | 5-7/9 | 86-68 (.558) | (33-20) Kentucky, Missouri, Georgia, Auburn | (33-19) Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee | (7-17) (G) Hawaii, (F) Alabama A&M | (13-12) Wake Forest, (G) UNLV |
| Auburn (7) | 8.328/28 | 5-7/1 | 93-62 (.600) | (43-11) Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama | (27-24) Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, Arkansas | (19-19) (G) UMASS, (F) Samford, (G) New Mexico St | (4-8) California |
| Texas A&M (8) | 8.274/29 | 5-7/50 | 87-64 (.576) | (33-18) Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi St | (36-17) (N) Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, LSU | (13-22) (G) New Mexico, (G) ULM, (F) Abilene Christian | (5-7) Miami FL |
| Tennessee (9) | 8.178/33 | 11-2/4 | 90-62 (.592) | (33-19) South Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia, Vanderbilt | (30-22) Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri | (24-14) (F) Austin Peay, (G) UTSA, (G) UCONN | (3-7) (N) Virginia |
| LSU (10) | 7.895/48 | 10-4/10 | 80-70 (.533) | (23-27) Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M | (34-18) Mississippi St, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama | (13-22) (F) Grambling St, (G) Army, (G) Georgia St | (10-3) (N) Florida St |
| Arkansas (11) | 7.880/49 | 7-6/30 | 83-68 (.550) | (20-18) Mississippi St, Auburn, Missouri | (40-25) LSU, (N) Texas A&M, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida | (23-25) (F) W Carolina, (G) Kent St, BYU, (G) FIU | — |
| Alabama (12) | 7.782/51 | 11-2/20 | 86-66 (.566) | (36-17) Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU | (26-24) Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Auburn | (23-14) (G) Middle Tennessee, Texas, (F) Chattanooga | (1-11) (G) South Florida |
| Mississippi St (13) | 7.639/60 | 9-4/15 | 87-68 (.561) | (36-17) LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi | (25-25) South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M | (26-26) (F) SELA, Arizona, (G) W Michigan, (G) Southern Miss | — |
| Georgia (14) | 7.242/74 | 15-0/8 | 80-70 (.533) | (29-23) South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi | (27-23) Auburn, Vanderbilt, (N) Florida, Tennessee | (19-17) (F) Tennessee Martin, (G) Ball St, (G) UAB | (5-7) Georgia Tech |
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That’s it for today and a wrap on the preseason. From the FCS lone independent, Kennesaw St, playing the easiest schedule through the SEC, we’ve looked at all 261 teams. Now, it’s just time for the games to start. If you have improvements, questions, or concerns, please comment. IF you like what you see here, please share with others. See you Friday, G
I’m going to cry fowl on my friend, Robert, here. The reason the SEC’s SOS is higher is that they all play each other … except for the patsies they play out of conference. Yes, other Power 5 conferences play patsies in their “pre-season” schedule, but it’s usually just one per year. The SEC usually plays 2 or 3 patsies, including during the meat of the season. This boosts their winning percentage compared to other conferences, so at the end of the season, it looks like their SOS is higher because they all play each other (just as other conferences do, of course). If you really wanted to find out which conferences were better, you’d do a season ranking of teams or conferences, but only count the games that were played out of conference. The trouble is that for the SEC, we’d only find out that they’re better than FCS teams. Their schedule against other Power 5 or Group of 5 teams is under-represented.
Carl, I hear what you are saying. In fact, if the Big 12 hadn’t added 4 teams that were G5 teams last year, they would have had the most difficult average PS schedule. Yes, the SEC “benefits” from having more wins per team than any other conference last year, but those games against conference foes are still played and have to be considered for the overall PS SOS. Not to mention, they only play 8 conference games a year (along with the ACC) rather than 9 like the rest of the Power 5. A completely different analysis for out of conference testing would be fun to do. Below I mention rivalry games and contractual games If we were to remove conference games from the mix, we would need to remove those as well. Here’s a quick down and dirty:
The 14 member Big 12 (9 conference games) plays 12 Power 5 non-conference opponents, half at home at half on the road. One of those games is Iowa/Iowa St which is an annual rivalry game. Oklahoma, UCF, and Houston do not play a Power 5 foe. 11 of the teams play an FCS school with Oklahoma, Houston, and Texas not.
The 12 member Pac 12 (9 conference games) plays 11 Power 5 non-conference opponents, 5 at home and 6 on the road. One of those games is Southern Cal/Notre Dame which is an annual rivalry game. UCLA and Oregon St do not play a Power 5 foe. 9 of the teams play an FCS school with Southern Cal, Colorado, and Washington not.
The 14 member Big Ten (9 conference games) plays 14 Power 5 non-conference opponents, 8 at home, 5 away, and 1 neutral. One of those games is Iowa/Iowa St which is an annual rivalry game. Michigan does not play a Power 5 foe. 7 teams play an FCS school with Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa St not.
The 14 member SEC (8 conference games) play 16 Power 5 non-conference opponents, 7 at home, 6 on the road, at 3 neutral site. Four of those games are annual rivalry games: Kentucky/Louisville, South Carolina/Clemson, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and Florida/Florida St. All 14 schools play a Power 5 opponent. All 14 schools play an FCS foe.
The 14 member ACC (8 conference games) play 25 Power 5 non-conference opponents, 12 at home, 9 on the road, and 4 neutral. Four of those games are annual rivalry games: Kentucky/Louisville, South Carolina/Clemson, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and Florida/Florida St. There are also 6 contract games vs Notre Dame, who is a member of the ACC but not in football: NC St, Duke, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Clemson, and Wake Forest. Boston College does not play a Power 5 opponent. 13 of the teams play an FCS foe with Virginia Tech not.
This data points toward the ACC playing the most challenging slate outside of conference (understanding not all opponents are equal so further analysis would need to be done), even if rivalries and contract games are removed. The SEC is the only conference in which every team plays an FCS school, but they are also the only conference in which every team plays at least one Power 5 non-conference game. The Pac-12 and the Big 12 average less than one P5 opponent per member while the Big Ten has exactly 1 per member.
Overall, 8 of the 69 Power 5 teams do not play a non-conference game vs a Power 5 team and 14 don’t play an FCS foe.
One other point: in the PS SOS analysis, which is a quick and dirty version of the actual formula for SOS, all teams that played a Power 5 schedule in the previous year are treated equally, meaning a 5-win SEC team is equal to a 5-win Pac-12 team. Similar rules apply for Group of 5 (slight discount compared to Power 5) and FCS (more significant discount).
In one last look at interconference play which does have a significant impact on the overall SOS, I imagined two teams, one of which played the 8 or 9 conference games with the best records in 2022 and one that played 8 or 9 teams with the worst records in 2022. Here’s what that data shows, from easiest “toughest” schedule to toughest “toughest” schedule:
The Pac 12 plays 9 conference games and the best possible combined record from last year is 67-40 (.626) and includes 2 teams with losing records. The worst possible combined record is 52-60 (.464) and includes 4 teams with winning records.
The Big 12 plays 9 conference games and the best possible combined record from last year is 77-44 (.636) and includes 1 team with a losing record, but at least 3 teams that played Group of 5 schedules last year. The worst possible combined record is 58-57 (.504) and includes 3 teams with a winning record, all of which played Group of 5 schedules last year.
The ACC plays 8 conference games and the best possible combined record from last year is 73-33 (.689) with no losing teams. The worst possible combined record is 42-58 (.438) and includes 3 winning teams.
The Big Ten plays 9 conference games and the best possible combined record from last year is 83-36 (.695) with no losing teams. The worst possible combined record is 50-63 (.442) and includes 4 winning teams.
The SEC plays 8 conference games and the best possible combined record from last year is 79-28 (.738) with no losing teams. The worst possible combined record is 49-52 (.485) and includes 3 winning teams.
Hopes this gives food for thought and thank you for yet another well thought out discussion!,
G