Welcome back, college football fans, as we finish up the Group of 5 conferences. This final stop is the remnant of the once proud Pac-12, the only conference with a number that changed it to equal the number of teams in the conference (see 18-team Big Ten and 16-team Big 12). At least, until ten of its members left for one of three other conferences, including the decidedly East Coast heavy ACC, when the conference did not adjust down to the Pac-2. I’m being a little harsh, because the remaining schools have been working hard to reestablish a full-sized conference. There are a few reasons to do that other than just having two teams is a little embarrassing. First, there is no championship game and no automatic bid to the playoff (assuming the new Pac-x would be a Core 4/Power 5 conference again – see below), second, because no Core 4 conference selected left behind Oregon St and Washington St, their only other options would be to become independent or join a Group of 5 conference outright, most likely the Mountain West (MWC) – in fact, both last season and this one, their schedules are fairly heavy MWC as it is, – and finally, they had two years to build up to a minimum of eight teams playing football to retain their conference-hood.
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To do that, they raided their nearest neighbor, MWC, by adding Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Diego St, and Utah St. They also added Texas St from the Sun Belt. All six teams will begin Pac-8? play in 2026. Gonzaga will also join as a non-football member. Of course, that dipped the 12-team MWC conference below the magical “8” requirement so they added UTEP from Conference USA and N Illinois from the MAC, both starting in 2026. They also completed assimilating Hawaii as a full member. Grand Canyon and UC Davis will join as non-football members. The latest rumors I’m reading about the angst in the ACC including more members saying they are wanting to get out could lead to further Pac-12 expansion after 2030 when the ridiculously large penalties go away – more on that in the ACC episode. I do think that if major players like Clemson (Big Ten best fit followed by Big 12 since the SEC doesn’t need another South Carolina team), Florida St (Big 12 best fit followed by Big Ten since the SEC doesn’t need another northern Florida team), and North Carolina (SEC best fit followed by Big Ten), all leave, we might see California and Stanford return to the Pac-12? for scheduling if nothing else. I also think SMU would head west making a nice natural rival with Texas St.
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In the meantime, the Pac-8? in 2026 will be the only conference in which every team will end in “state” – Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, Oregon St, San Diego St, Texas St, Utah St, and Washington St. I don’t see the Pac-x becoming a major conference again, but I do think they will be perennial players for the coveted fifth best conference champion (i.e., Group of 5) playoff spot starting in 2026.
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But this episode is about this season when the 2-team Pac-12 with cobbled together schedules try to be relevant. The only way either team would make the playoffs, IMHO, is to finish with a single loss or undefeated – and even that would depend on how strong the other Group of 5 conference champions are. I countdown preseason football by strength of schedule (SOS) for two reasons. First, as any long-term readers remember, every team is equal before any games are played – meaning that Ohio St and Long Island are both tied for first (or last, if you tend toward pessimism) right now – because the GCR is unbiased. Second, while SOS is important in college basketball, especially for seeding in the post-season tournaments, the short schedules in college football means less variation in records. In basketball with 35 games played, there could be 35 different outcomes (actually more because all teams don’t play the same number of games). In football, most teams play 12 games so there are only 12 variations (for the most part) prior to championship bowl games. That means a lot of 9-3 or 8-4 teams, for example, so the only way to separate them is through SOS.
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This season Oregon St plays five Core 4 opponents, and Washington St plays three. That makes their schedules stronger than typical Group of 5 conferences, but they only have two conference games – yes, they play a home-and-home series which most recently was done by Liberty and New Mexico St when they were both independents. Next season, I would expect each of these two teams to play their instate rival, and, maybe, one more Core 4 team, but they will fall into the true G5 structures. I could be wrong, but that’s what I’m seeing.
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In the table below, (F) indicates a game against an FCS foe, (G) indicates a non-conference fight against a fellow Group of 5 squad, (4) indicates a challenge against the big boy Core 4 schools. There are no neutral site games. And with no further ado, JoJo and I are thrilled to present the 5th most challenged conference in 2025, the 2-team Pac-12.
| Team | Home | 2024 Record (Rank) | 2025 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away Games |
| Oregon St Beavers (1) | Corvallis, OR | 5-7 (110) | 7.96 (57) | California (4), Fresno St (G), Houston (4), Wake Forest (4), Lafayette (F), Washington St, Sam Houston (G) | Texas Tech (4), Oregon (4), App St (G), Tulsa (G), Washington St |
| Washington St Cougars (2) | Pullman, WA | 8-5 (88) | 7.83 (66) | Idaho (F), San Diego St (G), Washington (4), Toledo (G), LA Tech (G), Oregon St | North Texas (G), Colorado St (G), Mississippi (4), Virginia (4), Oregon St, James Madison (G) |
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That’s it for today. Tune in next time for the Core 4’s least challenged conference (no hints). JoJo and I thank you for reading, commenting, and especially, sharing with others. The GCR is free and ad-free available at bit.ly/2019GCR as well as on Facebook (Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football) and on LinkedIn (G Robert Gettys). We are getting very excited about the upcoming Week 0 kickoff in just 20 days! JoJo and G
