Happy Sunday and welcome back to the 2023 GCR. It’s time to begin our analysis of the upcoming season and, as we do every year, we’ll start with the conferences with the weakest expected strength of schedule (SOS). Before we jump in, let’s review how the analysis is done.
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Preseason SOS is based on the wins/losses from 2022 for 2023 opponents, adjusted for division (games against Power 5 schools are worth more than Group of 5 which are worth more than FCS which are worth more than non-D1. Last post, we talked about teams changing divisions and we used last year’s divisions for this analysis. For example, BYU (and others) was a Group of 5 team in 2022 and promoted to the Big 12 (a Power 5 conference), but any preseason SOS calcs using BYU would adjust as if they were a Group of 5 team. Next summer, it will normalize to the P5 schedule. Additional adjustments are made for away and neutral site games. After all of the adjustments, each team receives a score. For reference, the 128 FCS teams average a PS SOS score of 2.729. The 133 FBS teams average 7.3955. The overall average is 5.107 for all 261 teams.
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Counting our special case (a single FCS independent team), there are 25 conferences (including FBS independents). We will post in order from easiest PS SOS to hardest and, within each conference, we’ll list teams from most challenged to least. The data will show each team’s 2022 record and final 2022 SOS, opponent’s 2022 record, home conference games, away conference games, and the same for non-conference games. Let’s start with the special case of Kennesaw St which is promoting to Conference USA in 2024, but is an independent this year. They also have one of the weakest schedules (260th of 261) in Division I, complete with 3 or their 10 games outside of Division I. For non-Division I teams, you’ll see (D) next to the team name. For Neutral site games, you’ll see (N) next to the team name.
| Team/Conf Rank | PS SOS/Rank | 2022 Record/ SOS Rank | 2023 Opp’s W/L | Conf Home | Conf Away/ Neutral | Non-Conf Home | Non-Conf Away /Neutral |
| Kennesaw St (1) | 1.554/260 | 5-6/159 | 42-53 (.442) | none | none | (24-30) Furman, Tennessee St, Tusculum (D), Lincoln (D), Lynchburg (D) | (18-23) Chattanooga, Tennessee Tech, Charleston Southern, Sam Houston |
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In 24th as the least-challenged multi-team conference, we have the lowly 11-team Pioneer League. Here is the list from Morehead St to Davidson (with the easiest football schedule for 2023).
| Team/Conf Rank | PS SOS/Rank | 2022 Rec/SOS Rank | 2023 Opp’s W-L | Conf Home | Conf Away/ Neutral | Non-Conf Home | Non-Conf Away/Neutral |
| Morehead St (1) | 2.335/219 | 2-9/185 | 67-55 (.549) | (26-19) Drake, Dayton, Butler, Davidson | (21-23) St Thomas, Valparaiso, San Diego, Presbyterian | (7-4) West Virginia St (D) | (13-9) Mercer, Tarleton |
| Drake (2) | 2.223/229 | 3-8/199 | 72-56 (.563) | (20-24) Valparaiso, St Thomas Stetson, Presbyterian | (18-25) Morehead St, San Diego, Marist, Butler | (13-1) NW Iowa (D) | (21-6) North Dakota, South Dakota St (N) |
| Valparaiso (3) | 2.165/235 | 5-7/209 | 65-57 (.533) | (18-25) Marist, Morehead St, Dayton, Stetson | (28-17) Drake, Davidson, Butler, St Thomas | (12-11) Indiana Wesleyan (D), Southern Mines (D) | (7-4) Youngstown St |
| Marist (4) | 2.130/239 | 4-7/260 | 55-67 (.451) | (20-23) Davidson, Stetson, San Diego, Drake | (24-21) Marist, Presbyterian, St Thomas, Dayton | (3-8) Butler | (8-13) Georgetown, Columbia |
| Stetson (5) | 2.030/247 | 4-6/214 | 71-43 (.568) | (30-14) Butler, St Thomas, Davison, San Diego | (14-32) Marist, Presbyterian, Drake, Valparaiso | (15-6) St Thomas FL (D), Webber Int’l (D) | (12-2) Montana St |
| Butler (6) | 2.000/248 | 7-4/189 | 61-61 (.500) | (17-29) Presbyterian, Davidson, Valparaiso, Drake | (24-19) Stetson, St Thomas, Dayton, Morehead St | (12-8) Taylor (D), Wabash (D) | (8-5) Montana |
| Dayton (7) | 1.880/254 | 8-3/251 | 56-65 (.463) | (22-22) St Thomas, Presbyterian, Butler, Marist | (20-25) San Diego, Morehead St, Valparaiso, Davidson | (8-13) Central St (D), Taylor (D) | (6-5) Illinois St |
| Presbyterian (8T) | 1.870/255 | 1-10/ 205 | 46-73 (.387) | (15-27) Stetson, Marist, San Diego, Morehead St | (26-19) Butler, Dayton, Davidson, Drake | (0-10) Lynchburg (D) | (5-17) Murray St, Wofford |
| St Thomas (8T) | 1.870/255 | 10-1/ 239 | 54-65 (.454) | (18-27) Morehead St, Butler, Marist, Valparaiso | (20-22) Dayton, Drake, Stetson, San Diego | (7-4) Black Hills St (D) | (9-12) South Dakota, Harvard |
| San Diego (10) | 1.810/257 | 5-5/232 | 55-65 (.458) | (23-21) Dayton, Drake, Morehead St, St Thomas | (17-27) Davidson, Marist, Stetson, Presbyterian | (4-6) Colorado Mesa (D) | (10-11) Cal Poly, Princeton |
| Davidson (11) | 1.430/261 | 8-4/195 | 42-78 (.382) | (19-25) San Diego, Valparaiso, Presbyterian, Dayton | (17-26) Marist, Butler, Stetson, Morehead St | (5-17) Barton (D), St Andrews (D) | (1-10) VMI |
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One of the things I look at when trying to figure out who might have a good season is a comparison of a) last year’s record and b) a comparison of last year’s SOS rank and the PS SOS rank. Looking at Davidson, for example, they were 8-4 (making the FCS playoffs as the automatic qualifier for the PFL) with the 195th most difficult schedule. With the easiest 2023 slate, can they win 10? They look like the team to beat in this conference for sure, but the lack of difficulty usually doesn’t bode well for the post season.
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That’s it for today. Look for another post coming soon with the 24th place conference as the countdown has officially begun. Thanks for reading and especially for sharing with others. Let me know your comments and suggestions, G
